Peace, love, and be kind to your commissioner...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Above Par Trips:
- The many seasons within the fantasy season.
- Utilization Report. DeVonta Smith has arrived.
- Game Preview. Not mad. Just disappointed...
- Regression Session. Draft Dionate in 2023?
- A lot of love.
- It's 1/4. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...
One of the beautiful things about fantasy football is the multiple seasons within the season. What was cold two weeks ago is now hot. What was bench worthy three games ago is now a high-end asset.
We try to use utilization and other trends to stay in front of these cases, but in the end, it is a multifactorial problem that isn't always easy to solve. Sometimes the changes are due to defensive adjustments as coaches notice a certain player dominating the most recent film. Other times it can be injuries or just matchup challenges. Of course, often, it is all of these things... or maybe it can best be described as plain old variance.
Whatever the case, we have two highly-drafted WRs that underperformed much of the season — and possibly sank some championship dreams. However, recently they have given us reason to once again believe (or at least reason to consider believing again).
🔥 WR – DJ Moore
You can’t quit DJ Moore. After only two top-18 finishes during the first 11 games of the season, he has reeled off four in his last five starts with Sam Darnold back under center.
Most of the nuggets in this week’s Utilization Report wrap around players on teams with a chance to make the playoffs in the spirit of post-season contests. However, I just couldn’t bring myself to leave Moore out.
He is the perfect example of how poor QB play and terrible QB play are very different when it comes to supporting WR performances in fantasy. Darnold hasn’t been great, but he averages 220 yards per game and is pushing the ball down the field with an 8.7 ADOT, as opposed to the 183 per game and 6.7 ADOT with Baker Mayfield.
Hopefully, the Panthers can upgrade their QB situation this off-season because Moore is currently on the old Allen Robinson II career track – tethered to mediocre QB play.
The fifth-year WR is on the verge of back-to-back 26% target share seasons and has the third-highest air yards share since 2016, and will only be 26 years old next year.
Moore is a low-end WR2 that upgrades to WR1 status with the right QB move this off-season.
🔥 WR – Mike Evans
Evans averaged 15.5 points over the first eight games of the season. However, that average tumbled to nine points over the last six contests until his 48.7-point eruption in Week 17. The veteran WR registered 10 catches for 207 yards and an eye-popping three TDs, extending his own record.
Over the first 14 games, Evans had one TD of 20-plus yards. All three of his TDs against Carolina came from 20-plus yards, as the Panthers left Evans isolated against single coverage multiple times.
It was hard to fathom Evans falling so far down the ranks, but it is equally hard to fathom future opponents providing the Buccaneers with similar looks down the field.
This isn’t just an Evans thing; Tom Brady only has four TDs of 20-plus yards this season – down from seven in 2021 and 11 in 2020.
Deep ball connections are subject to high variance by nature, so there is a chance Brady and Evans can rekindle their magic, but the veteran has struggled mightily against zone all year.
Evans is a boom-bust low-end WR2.
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Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.
📈 Upgrades
📈 RB – Najee Harris
Harris reclaimed the two-minute offense duties over the last two games with 90% and 100% of the snaps. He has 12 targets over that span, along with RB13 and RB9 finishes.
As a rookie, Harris garnered 94 targets, a number that he will finish well shy of, with 52 heading into Week 18. However, we know he is a capable option out of the backfield, which is a step in the right direction.
The Steelers' offense doesn’t offer many scoring opportunities, ranking 29th in drives converted to TDs (15%), and the former first-rounder hasn’t had much luck in the big-play department, with only 8% of his attempts going for 10-plus yards.
Despite those challenges, Harris profiles as a high-end RB2 in the utilization department and the Steelers still have a shot at the playoffs with a victory over the Browns if the Patriots and Dolphins lose.
Harris is a high-end RB2.
📈 WR – DeVonta Smith
The Eagles WR duo is becoming more of a 1A and 1B situation. Smith has out-targeted A.J. Brown in eight of 16 games this season, including three of the last four, and is on the verge of breaking records in Philadelphia.
The second-year WR now sits at a 27% target share on the season – barely behind Brown’s 28% – and is the leading option on third and fourth downs at 33%. Smith joins a prestigious list of first and second-round WRs to reach a 25% target share or higher by their second season.
- Justin Jefferson
- Michael Thomas
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Jarvis Landry
- Mike Evans
- Kelvin Benjamin
- Josh Gordon
- Kendall Wright
- A.J. Green
Over the last four games, Smith averaged 21.7 points per game, which pushes his season total up to 15.3 points and makes him the WR9. Times are good in Philadelphia and for Smith’s fantasy managers.
Smith is a high-end WR2 for Week 18 and NFL playoff contests.
📈 WR – Richie James Jr.
James has three top-16 finishes in the last four games, averaging a 25% target share.
Since taking over a full-time role in Week 12, James leads the Giants with a 22% target share and 1.69 YPRR.
We've seen Daniel Jones lock onto slot receivers in the past (Sterling Shepard), and James is making the most of his opportunities, operating inside on 85% of his routes with a 7.0 ADOT.
The fourth-year WR has a career-high TPRR of 14%, but he was competing with high-end talent profiles like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle in San Francisco. With the Giants, he is one of several mid-range options pushing for targets, and he sits at a 19% TPRR heading into Week 18.
James is a low-end WR3 the rest of the way.
Downgrades
RB – Rhamondre Stevenson
Damien Harris returned to the lineup in Week 17 and led the team in rushing attempts (43%) and short yardage opportunities (67%), leading to Stevenson’s lowest utilization outing when healthy since Week 4.
Stevenson suffered an ankle injury in Week 14 that unexpectedly was a non-factor in Week 15 while on many fantasy benches. However, over the last two games, he finished as the RB42 and RB41.
The second-year RB is likely still the No. 1 in New England, but the injury and return of Harris could put an end to his every-down reign that has insulated his fantasy floor. The Patriots used Harris in the two-minute offense last weekend, but those snaps should return to Stevenson, who has demonstrated elite target-demanding ability with a whopping 25% TPRR. However, Harris is a tough inside runner who could snipe short-yardage opportunities.
Stevenson profiles as a high-end RB2.
❤️️ The latest update on Damar Hamlin.
❤️️ Love this community more than yesterday. Y'all are good people. If you can, consider donating.
🙏 Every NFL team has the same Twitter avatar now. Pray for Damar.
💡 No need to decide on league champs now. When appropriate, here are some options.
✅ The Vikings still have a shot at the No. 2 seed. They will play their starters.
💰 Daniel Jones has earned himself a payday. That much!?!?
🥇 He still could break the NFL receiving record. It will be tough.
📋 A new QB vs. a vaunted defense. What a beautiful first drive.
Each week we'll feature a premiere matchup on the slate and break it down from all angles. Today, new Fantasy Life contributor Chris Allen tackles the tilt between the Dolphins and Jets.
This game has “I’m not mad. I’m just disappointed.” vibes all over it. We’ve got the Jets on one side. The same team with feasible playoff hopes on Christmas can now only play spoiler to Miami. And the Dolphins are doing their late-season tailspin with five-straight losses. They’re staring down their third contest without Tua Tagovailoa under center and need some magic to get into the postseason dance. New York may go down swinging with the Dolphins floundering, but I’ve got my concerns about the Jets’ offense putting up a fight with the offseason on their minds.
I thought Mike White would be the team’s savior in Week 17, but Seattle had other plans. White was under fire on 48.0% of his dropbacks last Sunday. The Seahawks came into the match using zone coverage on 54.9% of their plays. As a result, White’s average time to throw skyrocketed from 2.48 seconds over his earlier three starts to 2.89 against Seattle, per PFF. White was only more efficient at -0.37 EPA per play than Gardner Minshew, Nick Foles, and Davis Mills. White dragged the rest of the offense down with him, but we shouldn’t see the same against the Dolphins.
Miami’s zone-coverage rate is at 40.1% over the same span, and last week, the Dolphins only pressured Mac Jones on 22.2% of his dropbacks. While nobody’s looking to White as their QB option, his positive outlook brings his pass-catchers back into play for the season finale.
Garrett Wilson could get another ten targets and not get a measly 18 yards, as other WR1s have had productive days against Miami (Jakobi Meyers 9-48-1, Allen Lazard 11-61-0, and Stefon Diggs 9-60-0). The Dolphins are also dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, which keeps Tyler Conklin in the top-20 discussion. White may need some improvement from the backfield to keep the offense on schedule (21st in rushing success rate against Seattle). Regardless, a step forward from him boosts the floor of the entire team. Let’s hope either Miami quarterback can do the same for the Dolphins' offense.
I say either quarterback, as there’s still some uncertainty. Teddy Bridgewater has a dislocated pinky, which cost him the last quarter of Week 17. He still averaged 31.1 yards per drive against the Patriots before a stiff arm sent him to the shadow realm. There’s a chance we see Skylar Thompson, which lowers the ceiling for the Dolphins' skill players, but still gives them a stable floor.
While the game environment was different for both quarterbacks, they had over 20 dropbacks last week.
So, for those considering Tyreek Hill in their Week 18 contests, he’s a large part of the offense regardless of who’s under center. There is some concern for Jaylen Waddle’s opportunity as Thompson’s 6.0 aDOT favored Miami’s interior options, and Waddle ran the fourth-most routes from the slot. And while Thompson averaged 29.8 yards per drive, he’s at a -7.4% CPOE across his three games with more than 15 dropbacks. So the passing game might take a step back, but the running backs may be in play for Sunday.
Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. combined for six of Bridgewater’s 19 attempts. Mostert started the game, but Wilson handled both short-yardage carries and 83.3% of the two-minute work. New York’s run defense looked mortal against the Seahawks and finished 20th in rushing EPA allowed. If Thompson does get the start, both deserve a look as high-end RB3s.
When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.
With the fantasy season wrapped up, I am going to change gears a little bit and look at the top season-long regression candidates to remember heading into the off-season.
📈 Positive Regression - Diontae Johnson
One story that hasn’t gotten as much attention as it deserves is the remarkable scoreless streak of Diontae Johnson this season. He has 133 targets and 84 catches but 0 TDs through 16 games, well on his way to the all-time record for catches in a scoreless season.
Unsurprisingly, he has disappointed in fantasy football as a result. Johnson is currently the WR37 in total points and has just one weekly finish as a top 20 WR in half PPR scoring.
Per the PFF Expected Points model, a player with Diontae Johnson’s role throughout this season should have expected to score 6 receiving TDs. If we use Johnson’s career TD rate coming into this season, the expectation would be closer to 7 receiving TDs for his current target total. Adding 6-7 scores to his current stat line would push him solidly into the top 20 WRs for the year, showing just how important TD luck can be.
It will be easy for Diontae Johnson to go overlooked in drafts next year, with the ascending talents of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth getting all the headlines. He may not be the unquestioned top WR on the team, but he should still see plenty of volume and is likely to bounce back in the TD department, which could make him a nice value in PPR leagues.
📉 Negative Regression - Tony Pollard
The breakout finally happened for Tony Pollard this season. He received a larger role and capitalized on it by posting career highs in rushing yards, receiving yards, and TDs. He managed to maintain his strong rushing efficiency (5.3 YPC) despite the larger workload. This has helped propel him up to the RB7 in half PPR scoring, with four weekly finishes as a top 5 RB.
Per PFF, Pollard has outperformed expectations in virtually every area, but most notably in the TD department, where he has scored 12 times, compared to just 6.7 expected TDs for his role. This level of outperformance is unsustainable and should be expected to regress, even if Pollard has another good season.
One complicating factor for Pollard is that he is a free agent who is likely to be in demand after the great season he just had. If he signs to be the feature back somewhere other than Dallas, how that impacts his fantasy value remains to be seen.
He will likely project for even more volume next year but he could also be on a much worse offense. Either way, he will face an uphill battle to repeat this year’s performance and will likely be a much higher draft pick as well.
