Thereās a reason people retire to Florida and not Missouriā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- The Texans pull off a stunner
- Morning Download: PIT-BUF moved to Monday.
- Everyone froze their ass off yesterday
- Bets from the Group Chat: All in on Rams-Lions
- Itās 1/14. Take it away Peter Overzetā¦
Weāre off to races with two playoff games under our belt and two more today (more on those below in Bets From The Group Chat).
š¤ The Texans silence the skeptics
Even though the spread on this game was tight, public sentiment was that the Texans were still a year away from making any noise on the playoffs.
Rookie QB C.J. Stroud and the Houston defense had other plans, though, as they bulldozed the Browns 45-13.
Stroud, who becomes the first rookie QB drafted in the first round to win a playoff game since 2009 (s/o Mark Sanchez), only needed to complete 16 passes for 274 yards and 3 TDs while the defense turned two Joe Flacco interceptions into TDs.
As if the win couldnāt get any sweeter, donāt forget who the Browns gave three first-round draft picks to in exchange for the worst QB on their roster:
As the kids say, you absolutely love to see it.
š„¶ The Chiefs ice the Dolphins
The frigid temps in Kansas City stole all of the headlines yesterday, but the truth is that this current version of the Miami Dolphins is a shell of its former self.
The Chiefs locked down the depleted Dolphins 26-7 yesterday while marching up and down the field at Arrowhead.
After a fast start to the season, the Dolphins dropped three of their final five games, including a devastating Week 18 loss to the Bills that cost them the AFC East title and a home playoff game.
The Chiefs offense is still not firing on all cylindersāthe team canāt connect on a deep shot to save their livesābut Isiah Pacheco (89 yards, 1 TD) and rookie WR Rashee Rice (8-130-1) are doing just enough to give this offense a spark.
Theyāll face either the Bills (Bills W) or the Texans (Steelers W) in the Divisional Round.
šļø Injury Roundup For Sunday
There are two main pieces of injury news for todayās games:
Christian Watson, who hasnāt played in 6 weeks, will test out his hamstring pregame. According to reports, there is āsome optimismā that he can go.
It seemed unthinkable after getting carted to the locker room a week ago, but Lions rookie TE Sam Laporta is on track to play today despite hyperextending his knee in Week 18. He got in a full practice on Friday and is listed as Questionable for todayās game. The real question is how effective heāll be while wearing a large brace.
š ļø Everything you need for Super Wild Card Sunday
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on A.J. Brown and the postponement of Steelers-Bills.
For everything else you need for Cowboys/Packers and Lions/Ramsāincluding our Inactives page, which will update 90 minutes before each game with all of the relevant status updatesāyou can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for todayās slate below:
The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with playersā statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.
If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend ā lucky you ā letās get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarcaā¦
šļø A.J. Brown Ruled Out
The Eagles feel like theyāre in a world of trouble. In addition to playing awfully down the stretch, theyāre dealing with some significant injury concerns. Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith are both banged up, while Reid Blankenship missed Saturdayās practice and is considered a game-time decision.
While Hurts and Smith will likely play, the Eagles have already ruled out their top receiver. Brown suffered a sprained knee, and he could potentially return for the Divisional Round. That said, the Eagles have to get there first.
Brown has been the teamās clear-cut top receiver this season. Heās racked up 30% of the targets and 41% of the teamās air yards, while Smith is second at 24% and 31% respectively.
Smith should see a boost in value, while Dallas Goedert also gets a few additional opportunities. Further down the depth chart, guys like Quez Watkins, Julio Jones, and Olamide Zaccheaus also have the potential to be GPP dart throws.
Still, this is awful news for the Eagles overall. Their odds of winning this game are significantly lower without AJB, so those who invested in Philly in playoff best ball contests should be nervous.
š Steelers-Bills Moved to Monday
The weather report in Buffalo was looking downright apocalyptic for Sundayās matchup between the Steelers and Bills. Buffalo is currently in a state of emergency, so traveling for the game wouldāve been a nightmare. By moving the game to Monday, it should ease those concerns slightly.
The weather still isnāt going to be great. The area is expected to get roughly two feet of snow over 24 hours, and itās still going to be freezing cold. However, the wind concerns shouldnāt be quite as bad.
Weāve already seen this have an impact on the total. After getting as low as 33.0, itās back to 37.0 for the Monday afternoon affair. Thatās still the lowest total of the week, but thereās reason for optimism with both offenses after things looked pretty bleak.
š New Offer from BetMGM!
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Check out who the Fantasy Life team likes in today's games!
š I canāt stop watching the end of this play. Itās mesmerizing.
š° Looking for last-minute bets? Of course you are. Our bet tracker is loaded AND free.
š„¶ The concessions at Arrowhead were different last night. Can I interest you in a bottle of ice?
š A shootout on tap between Rams and Lions? Pickāem plays for Sunday.
š Taylor Swift and Donna Kelce dancing. Donna is clearly having the time of her life.
āļø Um, itās a good thing they postponed that game. We wouldnāt have been able to see a thing.
š When they score, you score. TD bets for Wild Card Weekend.
š¤£ MJD couldnāt help himself. Iām weak.
š§ Andy Reidās mustache froze. NSFW if you donāt want to see frozen snot.
Welcome to Bets from the Group Chat for Super Wild Card Weekend. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. Itās really a selfish endeavor as heāll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
The group chat, three-way parlay record moved to 5-9 last week. Even with the loss, weāre still up +14.68 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bets).
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below.
If parlays arenāt your thing, we also have the weekly ladder target.
š¤ Group Chat (Same Game) Parlay
The group has been in unison with how to approach this Rams/Lions game all week. So, with that in mind, I made the group parlay into an SGP ticket for Super Wild Card Week.
Note that because of this, the individual bets below are taken from the āSGPā tab of the Rams-Lions game on BetMGM.
All these plays are also logged separately in our FREE bet tracker on Fantasy Life.
1ļøā£ Drumheller likes: Rams +3.5 (BetMGM)
- Play to: +3.0 (-115)
I like the Rams this week and as Mark explains, the matchup with the Rams passing game vs the Lions secondary isnāt fair.
āSince Week 11, the Rams have the 4th best offense (EPA/play & success rate). Detroit's secondary grades out 29th via PFF. Should be a shootout, but LA's defense is more likely to get key stops with Donald & Turner crashing the interior of the pocket.ā
2ļøā£ LaMarca likes: Rams at Lions over 51.5 (BetMGM)
- Play to: 51.5 (-115)
Much like the first leg of our same-game parlay, I am in complete agreement with the idea of taking the over in this game. From LaMarca himself:
āBoth of these teams have fantastic offenses and questionable defenses, and this number is steadily on the rise. This game being played indoors also mitigates some of the typical offensive concerns you see during the postseason.ā
3ļøā£ Geoff likes: Josh Reynolds 25+ receiving yards (BetMGM)
- Projection: 38.8
- Play to: 27.5 (-110)
Lions WR Kalif Raymond is out and TE Sam LaPorta (knee - questionable) may not be 100% ā if he even plays.
Reynolds had five games with 50 yards or more receiving in his first six starts of 2023 (when Jameson Williams was suspended). In those six starts, he averaged 56.8 receiving yards and 4.5 targets per game.
š¤ Putting it all together: +400, BetMGM SGP
- Rams at Lions over 51.5
- Rams +3.5
- Josh Reynolds 25+ rec yards
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up here!
š Ladder Bet - Dallas Goedert receiving yards - Eagles (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+260)
- 70+ rec yards + anytime TD (+650)
- 100+ rec yards (+650)
A.J. Brown is out and DeVonta Smith (ankle) likely isnāt 100%. With no Brown, the Buccaneers secondary will almost certainly focus their attention on limiting Smith and likely be happy with giving up a few soft yards to Goedert as a trade-off.
Tampa Bay also allowed the second-most fantasy points and the second-most receiving yards to opposing TEs this season. In Week 17, they gave up 8 receptions and 90 yards to lightly used Juwan Johnson, and that was on the heels of them ceding 95 yards to Evan Engram in Week 16.
While his odds have shortened a little the situation still suggests there is a great chance for Goedert to approach his ceiling in this matchup making his alternate totals super appealing lines to chase this week.
