The Chiefs waited until Week 17 to fix their offense…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by LG Channels:
- The Bengals & Chiefs get help
- Morning Download: All roads lead back to Sam Howell
- Bets from the Group Chat: A kicker? Seriously?!
- The TE set to explode today
- Hidden Gems: Da Bears.
- It’s 12/31. Take it away Peter Overzet…
After a controversial call at the end of the game and a week-winning performance from CeeDee Lamb, we turn the page to the Sunday main slate, which includes 13 games and a SNF finale.
Way back in May, we circled the Chiefs-Bengals Week 17 matchup as a potential shootout.
And while it’s been a bumpy ride to get there–I mean, really bumpy–the game is shaping up to produce plenty of fantasy points thanks to two key players returning to action.
🚑 The Chiefs get their starting RB back
We were hyped for another sneaky start from Clyde Edwards-Helaire earlier in the week, but Isiah Pacheco is expected to play vs. the Bengals today:
In lieu of this news, Dwain has aggressively pushed up Pacheco to his RB9 on the week:
With the Chiefs favorites by nearly a touchdown, fire him up with confidence (and also be sure to slide CEH back down to the bench).
It’s also worth noting that sources say the Chiefs are simplifying their playbook for today’s game.
🚑 Ja’Marr Chase set to return?
While technically a game-time decision, all signs point to the Bengals getting their star WR back today vs. the Chiefs:
As Schefter notes in the post above, Chase has been talking all kinds of smack about the Chiefs’ defense, so this has the potential for some fireworks.
It is definitely nerve-racking to start Chase with a fantasy championship on the line, but his upside is simply too good to keep on your bench.
🛠️ Everything you need for Week 17
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on the Commanders’ QB conundrum, a shakeup in the Dolphins backfield, and trouble in Denver.
For everything else you need for Week 17—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with players’ statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.
If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend – lucky you – let’s get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...
❌ Jacoby Brissett Gets Grounded
Time is a flat circle, and all roads lead back to Sam Howell.
The first-year starter was benched in each of the past two weeks, with Brissett nearly engineering comebacks in both contests.
It’s not surprising that Brissett was originally tapped to get the nod in Week 17 vs. the 49ers. However, Brissett suffered an injury at Friday’s practice, and his status is now in jeopardy. He’s officially questionable, but all signs point towards him not suiting up.
If you made it to Week 17 – and a shot at a fantasy championship – you’re hopefully not relying on starting Howell. That said, it’s also terrible news for his pass-catchers. Guys like Terry McLaurin get a significant downgrade, checking in as a borderline flex play in our Week 17 rankings. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson are desperation RB2s at best, and no one else is really in the conversation.
The matchup vs. the 49ers also has the potential to get really ugly.
San Francisco has steamrolled the competition for most of the year, and they could be pissed off after last week’s disastrous performance vs. the Ravens. This one could get ugly, so I don’t blame you for wanting nothing to do with the Commanders’ offense.
📉 Raheem Mostert is OUT
We got one surprising piece of overnight news out of Miami:
This news vaults De’Von Achane into must-start territory as the lead back in a game with a 46.5-point total. It also puts Jeff Wilson on the FLEX radar.
👀 Trouble in Denver?
Most of the attention in Denver this week has focused on Russell Wilson, but their receiver situation is getting desperate. Courtland Sutton has already been ruled out, while Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr. are both questionable.
Saturday’s news painted a pessimistic picture regarding their status.
The team called up Michael Bandy and Phillip Dorsett from the practice squad, so they may be without their top three receivers on Sunday.
That won’t make things easy for Jarrett Stidham, even in a solid matchup vs. the Chargers. Like the Commanders, there’s not a single player on the Broncos you can really feel comfortable starting this week.
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Welcome to Week 17 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
The group chat, three-way parlay record moved to 5-7 on the year last week. Even with the loss, we’re up +16.68 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bets).
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below. If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!
1️⃣ Freedman likes: Lucas Havrisik over 1.5 FGS (-120, BetMGM)
- Projection: 2.2
- Play to: -150
I won’t say much about this (it’s a kicker prop), but it does look like a prime setup that Freedman has already discussed in length.
Like him, I also do not know how to pronounce Havrisik, making this the perfect degenerate bet to start our three-way parlay with.
2️⃣ LaMarca likes: Packers +1.0 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: Packers ML (-110)
Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 17-2 SU in December and Jordan Love has played out of his mind the last five games (68.8% - 1359 yds - 11td - 1int).
To make this bet even more enticing, the Vikings are starting a rookie in Jaren Hall, who struggled in preseason (5.5 yards per attempt, 54% comp rate).
3️⃣ Geoff likes: Joe Mixon over 10.5 carries (-125, BetMGM)
- Projection: 13.9
- Play to: 11.5 carries (-115)
Mixon still managed to go over this total last week despite having the worst game script imaginable.
I can’t imagine the Bengals won’t be trying to run more this week either given the Chiefs’ weaker rush defense (22nd in success rate vs the run).
🤝 Putting it all together: +529, BetMGM SGP
- Joe Mixon over 10.5 carries (-125)
- Lucas Havrisik over 1.5 FGS (-120)
- Packers +1.0 (-110)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!
📈 Week 16 Ladder Plays: Darius Slayton (NYG) receiving yards (BetMGM)
- 50+ rec yards (+195)
- 50+ rec yards + anytime TD (+800)
- 75+ rec yards (+525)
I like targeting the Rams secondary this week, a unit that has now allowed the eighth-most receiving yards on the season to opposing WRs – and a total of seven TDs to opposing WRs over the last three games.
Slayton remains the Giants' most consistent big-play option at WR and has caught passes of 69 yards and 33 yards over the last two weeks. Slayton has also quietly turned into a near-every-down player who has posted a route rate above 90% in each of the last three games.
For betting starting at 50+ yards seems reasonable. It’s a number he’s cleared six times this season so the +195 odds (33.9% implied probability) are quite attractive.
🚁 The TE scoring 2 TDs today? The ‘chopper has spoken.
✍️ Looking for the best matchups to target? Week 17 DvP data you need.
🚑 Week 17 injury roundup. Ian has you covered.
💰 Did you miss out on your fantasy championship? Have no fear, Week 17 TD bets are here.
💸 Saquon Barkley got fined for this? I’m confused.
🔏 Is CMC a lock to score a TD today? The betting markets think so.
🐬 Game recognize game. Speed recognize speed.
🤝 Don’t worry about Week 17 fantasy FOMO. You can still get in on the action with our (FREE) bets for the slate.
✈️ Russell Wilson is most likely done with Denver. Where will he end up?
👒I got bounced from the Fantasy Life eliminator league. And had to explain it to my mom.
Everyone knows the best plays. Lamar Jackson, Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
Thanks to 13 games, we have tons of great scroll-down options for Battle Royale contests. The field is going to get funneled to the top 36 players, which means we can veer slightly off the beaten path to select players who don’t project that differently, but come at a fraction of the popularity.
💎 QB: Justin Fields (ADP: 33.6)
There are lots of field tendencies we can exploit in Battle Royale contests (ADP anchoring bias, chalk combos, etc.), but none are greater than recency bias.
This isn’t unique to just Underdog Drafts, either. This plays out in basically every form of fantasy:
Whatever happened last week, is sure to happen again this week, right?
Last week Justin Fields was the unanimous QB1 in Battle Royale contests thanks to his juicy matchup with the Cardinals. His 24.5-point performance was solid, but not enough to edge Joe Flacco (26.82) from the optimal.
This week he gets a home matchup vs. a middle-of-the-pack Falcons defense and drafters have responded by pushing him all the way down to QB7.
There’s a big difference between QB6 and QB7 in these formats because the QB6 (this week it’s Matthew Stafford) is drafted in the majority of contests, while the QB7 is drafted far less frequently.
So when we select Fields in Week 17, not only are we getting access to a signal caller with QB1 upside, but we’ll be doing so at a fraction of the field exposure relative to the other Top 6 QBs.
A Hidden Gem to Stack with Fields
