🚑 2 Key QBs Won't Play Sunday

At least the Chargers got that W vs. the Broncos in Week 18...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by AMP:

• 2 star QBs won't play this weekend
• Wild Card Weekend: Rankings & Tiers
• Bets From the Group Chat. Betting on Baker?
• Game Preview: Giants @ Vikings
• It's 1/12. Take it away, Peter Overzet.

We have a fun slate of Wild Card games on tap this weekend, but two of them got a whole lot less interesting yesterday due to unfortunate QB health news.

Here's what we know...

🚑 No Tua (> Skylar Thompson)

Despite some whispers that Tua Tagovailoa could potentially return for this matchup, the Dolphins officially ruled him out yesterday as he still remains in the concussion protocol. 

Making matters worse, it sounds like Teddy Bridgewater still isn't 100% either and Skylar Thompson is expected to get the start:

Mike McDaniel added that Teddy Bridgewater won’t be able to get many (if any) reps this week. Noted he wouldn’t hesitate to use Teddy in as needed basis if situation arises Sunday.

All signs pointing to Skylar Thompson at QB for Dolphins as McDaniel said is the plan as of today.

— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe)
Jan 11, 2023

The line quickly moved from Bills -9.5 all the way up to -13.

It's a massive bummer that Tua won't get to play in the playoffs and that we will likely be deprived of a competitive game, but it's also a relief to know that his health is being taken seriously.

I'm still willing to use Tyreek Hill in some playoff contests, but this is a huge downgrade to the entire offense and I'd prefer to stay away.

🚑 No Lamar? (> Tyler Huntley? Anthony Brown?)

Whatever optimism there was on Lamar Jackson returning for postseason action seemingly evaporated yesterday. 

Jackson is still dealing with his PCL injury and "faces an uphill battle to play this weekend," per sources informed of the situation. He hasn't played since December 4th and has not practiced since Week 13.

Similar to the Dolphins situation, the Ravens backup outlook is murky. Tyler Huntley missed Week 18 due to shoulder and wrist injuries, which meant undrafted rookie QB Anthony Brown got the start. Huntley was spotted at practice yesterday, so hopefully he's good to go for Sunday.

The line now sits at Bengals -8.5, and even that number feels light...

Mark Andrews and J.K. Dobbins are really the only pieces you can consider here for fantasy purposes.

👔 Aren’t 8-hour workdays the best?!...

Amp’s going to make your workday feel like a breeze.

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See that schedule? Know what day it is? Yeah, that's right. The one and only Matthew Berry will be on Amp TODAY!

So, whether you’re putting in the work or just kicking it, add some Amp to your day.

Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge on your leaguemates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered. 

Running Back

🥇 Tier 1 – Saquon Barkley

Barkley ascends into Tier 1 with Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler for the Wild Card round. He averages 19 points per game over the last three weeks, and his utilization is top-three in the NFL.

In Week 16 against the Vikings, Barkley delivered his second-largest fantasy outing of the season with 27 points. He ran for 84 yards and a TD on 14 attempts and was a terror in the passing attack, turning 10 targets into eight receptions for 49 yards.

The Vikings have incorporated more man coverage concepts over the last few weeks, but they still rank as the third-heaviest zone team (77%) on the season. When the Giants get zone looks, Barkley’s TPRR jumps to 21% – a six percentage point improvement over man coverage.

Barkley has a lot of outs in a great matchup that could shoot out, making him a SMASH play on Super Wild Card Weekend.

🥈 Tier 2 – Dalvin Cook

Cook is getting overlooked by industry rankers after registering RB26, RB42 and RB48 finishes over the last three games. On the surface, his utilization also appears to be on the decline.

However, once accounting for the context of Week 17 and Week 18, we can see there was a reason for his reduced role.

• Week 17: Blowout loss to Packers where Cook only played 15% of snaps in the fourth quarter.
• Week 18: The Vikings rested their starters after halftime.

Excluding these two games, Cook averages a 75% snap share and 72% rushing attempt share – which could lead to a 20-plus opportunity game against a lackluster run defense. The Giants allow 142 rushing yards per game in non-overtime play, which is a top-three matchup.

The Vikings are slight favorites at home, carrying the third-highest team total on the slate.

Cook ranks six slots ahead of industry consensus and is a SMASH play.

🥈  Tier 2 – Tony Pollard

Pollard averaged 20 fantasy points per game in the first four games after the return of Ezekiel Elliott to the lineup in Week 11, delivering RB1, RB41, RB2 and RB7 finishes. Since then, his production has slipped with RB18, RB16 and RB74 finishes.

The electric RB was due for regression after scoring six TDs over a four-game span. However, he remains an electric playmaker on a quality offense where his utilization remains pretty steady.

Pollard has given up some looks inside the five-yard line to Elliott, but the team is still willing to use him in short-yardage situations. He continues to hold a slight edge in passing-down opportunities and ranks higher than Elliott in missed tackles forced rate, yards after contact, and 10-plus yard carries.

The Buccaneers are a middling run defense, and there is potential for a shootout with the third-highest game total on the slate.

Pollard is a low-end RB1 option.

Wide Receiver

🥇 Tier 1 – Stefon Diggs

Diggs had an uncharacteristically bad three-game stretch from Week 14 to Week 16 with finishes of WR59, WR39 and WR69 while averaging 7.3 points. However, he got things going in Week 18 against the man-heavy Patriots defense.

This weekend, the veteran WR faces one of the worst graded PFF coverage units (55.1) who utilize man coverage the second-most (40%). This is fantastic news for Diggs, who sees a 33% TPRR against man – nine percentage points above his zone TPRR (24%).

Diggs is a SMASH play on Super Wild Card Weekend.

 🥈 Tier 2 – Mike Evans

Evans suffered through a rough five-game stretch where he averaged 8.6 fantasy points. However, he has shown signs of life in two out of his last three games with a WR25 and WR1 performance.

The ninth-year veteran isn’t the elite option we once knew, but his underlying receiving profile is in line with his last two seasons with Tom Brady.

Yeah, it took 12 targets, 10 receptions, 207 yards and three TD in Week 17 to get him to these numbers, but he made it.

Tampa Bay faces a Cowboys defense that was strong for most of the season, but over the last four games, they have the worst PFF coverage grade (50.7) out of all playoff teams.

Evans is a top-10 option in a contest with the third-highest game total.

💪 RG3 has some strong thoughts on playoff football. RUN THE BALL.

🙌 Another awesome Damar Hamlin update. What a difference a week makes.

😤 Think you have what it takes to win? Prove it.

🐝 Teams are swarming Sean Payton. A new suiter emerges.

📺 A Utilization takeaway for every playoff team. Some are surprising...

🚑 A key WR missed practice yesterday. Let's keep tabs on this.

📺 A play that will never be forgotten. 8 years ago yesterday. 

🏆 Rookie receiving yardage leaders since 2010. Great company.

📋 Will the Patriots add a real OC this offseason? They better.

😎 An interesting top 4 at QB. Take a look. 

We have a big Wild Card NFC clash on deck with the Giants & Vikings, so Fantasy Life Contributor Chris Allen is here to dive into the finer points of this Wild Card clash. 

My natural inclination was to pick the Giants over Minnesota. Just look at the discourse surrounding this team. The vibes out of New York are immaculate. They rested their starters in Week 18 and still held the Eagles (with Jalen Hurts at less than 100%) to their fourth-lowest point total of the season. So, my lean towards the G-Men isn’t based solely on their confidence level. And since they’re only three-point road underdogs, I’m not the only one that believes they have the talent to pull off the upset this weekend.

We can’t assume the Giants will reuse their Week 16 playbook. But let’s look at a couple of its core tenants. Daniel Jones only eclipsed 300 passing yards twice this season, and once was against the Vikings. So, it makes sense they’d tap into some of their previous success if they can.

Minnesota sent five or more pass rushers on 28.6% of Jones’s dropbacks. As a result, we saw more of his quick game. Jones rifled the ball to his receivers in less than 2.5 seconds on 42.9% of his throws. He only missed two attempts, and we saw the rise of Richie James Jr. in the offense.

Since Week 12, the fourth-year veteran receiver is 25th in YPRR ahead of Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs. Granted, James primarily operates from the slot, but he’s also earned Jones’s trust once the team gets into scoring position as he has the most red-zone targets. And even if the Vikings switch up their man-heavy defensive approach, James is still set up for success.

He tallied 90 yards on 11 targets the last time they faced, and Allen Lazard tagged Minnesota for about half of James’s damage the week after (6-59-0). The Colts dropped 100 yards on the Vikings from the interior, and three of Detroit’s WRs found the paint running routes from the slot. Jones can use James, or any of the other pass catchers, to help him move the chains through the air. But the Giants’ ground game will also keep their offense on schedule. 

Surprisingly, Jones didn’t record a designed rushing attempt in Week 16. However, Saquon Barkley posted a 50.0% success rate, and half of Jones’s scrambles went for first downs. Efficiency, mixed with a few explosives, brought them within a field goal of beating the Vikings before. With Minnesota ranked 23rd in rushing EPA allowed over their last six games, more of Jones as a runner may push them over the top.

I already made the case about our new ELO model overrating Minnesota. But they’re still favored to win. Justin Jefferson can still griddy his way past the Giants’ defenders. Clearly, I’m playing both sides, so I come out on top, but Kirk Cousins should be able to handle what Wink Martindale has in store for him.

Editors note: One of our betting experts, Geoff agrees with Chris here and has the Vikings -3 as one of his best bets of the week. 

The Giants’ defense ranked 11th in EPA per play over the last month and ended the season 7th in pressure rate. Cousins’ passing ability under duress has been the topic of debate, with multiple turnovers against the Packers. However, there’s some hope for the Vikings’ passing game.

Starting Center Garrett Bradbury was back at practice on Wednesday. Cousins has seen pressure on 30.5% of his dropbacks without Bradbury in the lineup. The silver lining is Cousins has the tenth-highest adjusted completion among all QBs over Bradbury’s five-game absence. So, with his protection improved, Kirk should be able to find time to connect with his favorite target.

Even when pressured, it should be no surprise Jefferson is ahead of all the other receiving options in Minnesota. The league’s receiving yardage leader torched them for 133 yards and a score last time. And while the previous two weeks may have given the Giants a blueprint on how to limit the All-Pro WR, the Vikings have another answer.

T.J. Hockenson is second in targets since Week 13. He hasn’t been the most efficient with his looks (1.48 YPRR), but he’s become one of Kirk’s most-trusted options. The veteran tight end’s 0.29 TPRR on third downs is the highest on the team. He’s also overtaken Adam Thielen as a red-zone option. With the Giants ending the regular season ranked 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs, Kirk will need another strong performance from Hockenson so the Vikings can advance.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Geoff came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM

💰 Vikings -3

If there’s any team who should be ready for a pressure-filled, one-game elimination scenario this week, it’s the Vikings. Minnesota won 11 one possession games this season, breaking the previous NFL record of 10. Despite hardening themselves with several improbable comeback wins, and impressively winning the NFC North at 13-4, the negative sentiment around Minnesota and Kirk Cousins still has the Giants popping up as the trendy upset pick of the week. 

WOW.

—  x - 𝙅𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙨  (9-7-1) (@DanielJonesMVP)
Jan 11, 2023

These teams played in Week 16 with Justin Jefferson exploiting a weaker Giants secondary all game – and New York needing a late TD with under 2:00 mins left just to tie the game (which they eventually lost in regulation). The Giants were far better targets that week as they opened at +5.5 and still closed above a key number at +3.5. 

With this week’s line staying strong at -3.0/+3.0, taking the battle hardened Vikings at home – in a scenario where the sentiment and money has been going against them all week – feels like the right play for this Sunday.

💰 Trevor Lawrence u35.5 pass attempts

The Jaguars match-up against a Chargers defense that allowed 5.4 yards per carry against this year, and ranked fourth-last in defensive rush DVOA. It sets up as a perfect spot for Travis Etienne Jr. to get a big workload, who took just nine touches against Tennessee the week prior. Etienne averaged 5.1 yards per carry over his last five games and led the NFL in total rush yards over expected this season. 

Teams against the Chargers have been happy to exploit this edge with opponents averaging just 29.7 pass attempts against them this season – the third-lowest mark in the league. Lawrence’s 31.94 attempt projection on Fantasy Life this week gives us a nice cushion and 5.2% edge to exploit here in the Saturday nightcap

💰 Joe Burrow Super Bowl MVP +900

This is basically a way to get money in on a long Bengals playoff run, at a better number than their current +750 Super Bowl odds. You can certainly take the lesser team outright number – and be locked into an easy hedge opportunity if the Bengals advance through the AFC this year – but if you’re just interested in a way to cash in on a Bengals outright Super Bowl win, then Burrow’s odds seem like the better play

Nine of the last 13 Super Bowl MVP awards have gone to the quarterback position, and while there’s always the odd outlier, the Bengals' lack of a big name player on defense also increases Burrow’s chances of paying this off – should Cincinnati win it all.