Puka Cupp, Cooper Nakua…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- It’s wheels up for the Jets (at least for one week)
- Rankings & Tiers: Don’t forget about Josh Jacobs
- QUICK HITTER: Best Bet for TNF
- Updates on JT, Kupp & Tee
- Freedman’s Favorites: 5 gold-star plays
- It’s 10/5. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
A little over a week ago, I wondered if the Jets could be fixed.
The team was in the process of a full meltdown, Zach Wilson was playing impossibly bad, and they had a brutal matchup on deck vs. the defending champs.
Well, not only did Wilson nearly lead the Jets to an upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs in front of notable celebrities like Ryan Reynolds, Blake Lively, and someone else I’m forgetting, but he legitimately outdueled Patrick Mahomes:
- Completions: 28 > 18
- Passing yards: 245 > 203
- Passing TDs: 2 > 1
- INTs: 0 > 2
And guess what? It gets even better for the Jets in Week 5 with the friendliest matchup in all of sports vs. a historically bad Denver Broncos defense who have given up an average of 43 points over their past three games.
What I’m getting at here is that while it might feel uncomfortable and gross, you absolutely have a green light to fire up Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson in this spot.
🚀 The training wheels are off for Breece?
Up until this point, the Jets haven’t been shy about keeping Breece Hall on a pitch count to start the season. Well, it seems like those days are over:
It is worth mentioning that Robert Saleh also said there are still other guys they need to get the ball to, but it’s hard not to get excited about an unleashed Breece in this exploitable matchup:
🚀 Garrett Wilson, prepare to launch
Hall will deservedly get most of the attention this week thanks to the news about his workload increasing, but let’s not forget about Wilson, who is also trending in a very positive direction.
He’s averaging a hearty 8+ targets per game, including last week’s 13-target game vs. the Chiefs.
Even more encouraging, it seems like the Jets are making a concerted effort to scheme him targets via more snaps from the slot and with consistent red zone looks.
Read on for more about Wilson in Dwain’s rankings piece below!
And if you need any more convincing about starting Jets this weekend, lest I remind you that this is a Nathaniel Hackett revenge game?!
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Speaking of first bets...
💰 Geoff is betting: Logan Thomas Anytime TD (+250, BetMGM)
"Logan Thomas returned last week and had a strong 77% route participation rate against Philadelphia. He’s already connected for a TD with Sam Howell on the season – against another bad defense in Denver – and with both Curtis Samuel (quad - questionable) and Jahan Dotson (ankle) banged up could easily step up into a bigger role for Week 5.
The Commanders' offense tends to spread the ball in the passing game (five different players have caught four or more passes this year) so simply looking to target whichever receivers for Washington have the biggest odds for an anytime TD, against Chicago (who allows 2.5 passing TDs per game), makes plenty of sense."
It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 5 of the fantasy football season. Below you’ll find Dwain’s thoughts on some must-start players. Find all of our positional rankings here.
👑 Running Back
🥈 Tier 2 – Josh Jacobs
The first three weeks of the season were brutal for Jacobs’ managers. However, that all changed in Week 4 when he erupted for 28 points against the Chargers.
Jacobs is another example of why we must remain patient and keep RBs with full-time roles in our lineups. Based on data since the 2011 season, backs with Jacobs’ utilization finished as the RB7 on average.
The 25-year-old bruiser has 22 or more opportunities in three of four contests when adding rushing attempts and targets.
Jacobs is on pace for a career-high 102 targets in a Raiders attack that doesn’t use three WRs often and doesn’t throw to their TEs. The fifth-year back is gobbling up the underneath targets that used to go to Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow.
Honestly, we need to thank the heavens for the targets because Jacobs has been downright terrible in every efficiency metric known to man.
- 10-plus yard attempts: 1.6% (35 of 35 backs with at least 30 attempts)
- Average yards after contact: 2.0 (34th)
- Missed tackles forced per attempt: 12.9% (28th)
Catching passes in PPR formats is one helluva drug, and Jacobs ranks second in targets per route run (TPRR) at 32% and first in yards per route run (YPRR) at 2.28.
We must remember that efficiency can be a fickle thing, and if Jacobs can get his 2022 mojo back, he will be an absolute fantasy force. That is where the Packers enter the picture.
The Raiders’ Week 5 opponents allow the third-most yards (155) and TDs (1.25) on the ground per game (155.3). Opposing rushing attacks have averaged 23 fantasy points per game.
Look for Jacobs to push for 25 touches, 125 total yards and a TD. He is a top-10 player overall in Week 5.
💥 Wide Receiver
🥉 Tier 3 – Garrett Wilson
Since the Aaron Rodgers injury, I have been well below industry consensus each week on Wilson. However, multiple positive data points are working in Wilson’s favor, making his Week 5 outlook more optimistic.
First, the Jets showed a willingness to pass the ball more in Week 4 against the Chiefs – posting their first positive dropback rate over expectation of the season at +6%.
That tweak to the game plan allowed the Jets to reach a season-high 42 dropbacks, and the second-year WR garnered a whopping 13 targets.
That leads me to point No. 2: Wilson is a TARGET HOG. His target share has reached 29% or higher in every game, and he ranks No. 6 in the NFL at 31%.
The third big break in his favor is his catchable target rate. After a horrific 43% outing in the first game with Zach Wilson under center, things have improved to 63% and 77%.
While the milf hunter still ranks in the bottom four in completion rate at 59%, he and his top target are showing signs of chemistry. There is a good chance this is short-lived – it is hard for a WR to keep a catch rate this high with this QB play.
However, if that mojo can last one more week, the outcome could be a high-end WR1 finish because the Jets play against Denver. Even without the other three positives working in his favor, Wilson will climb up most rankings on this matchup alone.
The Broncos' secondary is outlier bad with a 35.9 PFF coverage grade, and the team also ranks dead last in tackling (28.6). No other unit gives up more passing yards (302) and TDs (3.3) per game.
If Wilson gets seven to eight catchable targets, he has a shot at 100-plus yards and a score. He moves out of WR3 purgatory up to my WR19 in Week 5.
Positional Rankings for Week 5
The Fantasy Life FREE Bet Tracker is already loaded with a handful of plays for Thursday Night Football. As a peek behind the curtain, Matthew Freedman is here with one of his favorite props of the day…
🚀 Tired: buying low. Wired: buying HIGH. This QB is headed to the MOON.
🤷 What’s going on with Jonathan Taylor? Here’s one update, and another.
✍️Two bad teams with a wide range of potential outcomes. Everything you need for TNF Betting and DFS showdown contests.
💰 Best bets and bold predictions. Freedman thinks WHO will be the MVP favorite after Week 5?!
🚑️ The emergency test broadcast interrupts a press conference. Good timing.
⚡️ Why is David Montgomery out-producing Jahmyr Gibbs? Austin Ekeler explains.
🤔 Cooper Kupp (limited Wednesday) wants to play. But will the Rams let him?
📊 De’Von Achane breaks charts. Missed tackles forced and yards after contact.
🎲 An update on Tee Higgins. Could be dicey.
☃️ The Broncos will rock a snowcapped helmet vs. the Jets. Can’t hurt, I suppose.
😭 Are you ready to get hurt again? I am.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called “Freedman’s Favorites,”. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding “No”. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 5…
🌟 QB Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) vs. Giants
- Dolphins: -10.5
- O/U: 49.5
- TT: 30
Last year, Tagovailoa was No. 1 in AY/A (9.2) and No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.148). This year, he’s No. 2 in both (9.9, 0.212).
Maybe the guy who …
Went to college as the No. 1 dual-threat recruit in his high school class …
Came off the bench as a true freshman in the National Championship to lead Alabama to a comeback win against Georgia …
Finished No. 2 in Heisman voting as a sophomore with an efficient 3,966 yards and 43 TDs passing to just six INTs …
Entered his final undergraduate season as the presumed No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft before suffering a career-threatening injury …
Weathered reasonably well two years of offensive playcalling incompetence before finally getting a creative schemer capable of maximizing his abilities …
… maybe that guy is actually good at football, you know?
This week the Dolphins have the league’s highest implied team total (30 points), and the Giants are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.219).
In my offseason Dolphins betting preview, I highlighted Tagovailoa as MVP and I have that bet logged in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. Even with his Week 4 loss, he’s currently +500 across the market. We’ll see.
🌟 RB Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Cowboys
- 49ers: -3.5
- O/U: 45
- TT: 24.25
In his 18 games with the 49ers, McCaffrey has 2,109 yards and 20 TDs on 279 carries and 100 targets (including playoffs). That seems good.
His usage this year has been exceptional: Through four weeks, he has 91% of the snaps for short down and distance, 94% long down and distance, and 100% two minutes, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report.
McCaffrey leads the league with 600 yards and seven TDs from scrimmage, and he could be without No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee), who missed Week 3.
He could also benefit from a run-leaning game script as a home favorite against the Cowboys, who are No. 27 in defensive rush SR (45.1%).
I have a +8000 ticket (acquired after Week 2) on McCaffrey to win MVP: I fully expect to lose the bet, but if a non-QB producer wins the award, it will likely be him. He leads the entire league in fantasy scoring (27.8 FPPG).
🌟 WR Puka Nacua (Rams) vs. Eagles
- Rams: +4.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 23.25
Even with the impending return of Kupp, I think there’s still room for Nacua in the WR1 ranks, given the connection he has established with QB Matthew Stafford and how dominant the Rams offense has been (0.067, No. 8 in offensive EPA).
Despite being just a rookie, Nacua leads the league with 52 targets and 39 receptions, which he has leveraged into 501 yards receiving and a TD.
Eagles are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (37.1 FPPG).
🌟 WR Garrett Wilson (Jets) at Broncos
- Jets: +1.5
- O/U: 43
- TT: 20.75
Wilson’s raw numbers might not impress (21-225-2 receiving, 36 targets), but his utilization within the Jets offense is elite (99% route rate, 24% target rate, 31% target share, 39% air share, 40% of endzone targets, and league-high 60% of redzone targets).
The Broncos are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.450) and SR (56.1%) and pass DVOA (63.7%).
🌟 TE Dallas Goedert (Eagles) at Rams
- Eagles: -4.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 27.75
Goedert has unspeakably underwhelmed this year with just 13-88-0 receiving on 19 targets. That’s 4.8 targets per game and 4.6 yards per target. Terrible.
But there’s hope. He has an elite 95.2% snap rate this year and a position-high 92% route rate. At some point, targets will find him, and his efficiency will improve: In his first two seasons under HC Nick Sirianni (2021-22), Goedert averaged 5.4 targets per game and 10.6 yards per target, and last year he was the No. 1 TE with an 88% route rate.
The Rams are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (33.6%).
More of Freedman’s Favorites for Week 5
