Can Jeff Saturday serve as a player/coach? Make it happen, Irsay...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, brought to you by The Headstrong Project:
- The Raiders are in trouble
- JMToWin's Week 10 DFS Tips
- The Fantasy Life Podcast is LIVE
- Geoff's bets: Mooney, again.
- Matthew's Love/Hate for Week 9
- Linda's Kicking It: Top kicker plays
- The Walkthrough: A BIG week for Barkley
- It's 11/10. Take it away, Peter Overzet
It seems like an eternity ago that the Raiders walloped the Houston Texans 38-20 and Josh Jacobs rushed for 143 yards and 3 TDs.
Since then, they've gotten shut out by the Saints 24-0 and lost to the 3-6 Jaguars.
If you think this is the part of the story where I sell you some Raiders hopium going forward, I'm afraid you are in the wrong spot.
Things went from bad to bleak yesterday for Las Vegas when we learned the team would be placing Darren Waller on injured reserve after re-aggravating his hamstring injury, which will sideline him for a minimum of four weeks.
The bleeding didn't stop there, though. The Raiders also placed WR Hunter Renfrow on IR due to his oblique injury.
What looked like a dream team on paper to start the season has now completely crumbled, and there's legitimate systemic risk to the entire offense folding under these stressors.
That said, there are some fantasy beneficiaries from the IR fallout:
📈 TE Foster Moreau
Moreau is going to be a full-time player in Waller's absence and has racked up 19 targets in the last three games without Waller. Considering how depleted the TE position is, he's a Top 12 option for this Waller-less stretch.
📈 WR Mack Hollins
Hollins becomes very interesting without Renfrow. Not only did he see a target share over 20% in the two games Renfrow missed, but the targets were very valuable (46.2% deep targets and 21.1% RedZone targets).
I've seen some chatter saying Davante Adams benefits as well, but he's already at a massive 31% target share on the season. It would hard for that to grow much more.
If there's one black and silver lining for the Raiders this week, it's that they get to play a team who is aggressively tanking. It might be the end of the road for Josh McDaniels if he loses to this guy:
Wow. Im genuinely pumped to see what Jeff Saturday can do for the Colts🔥
— Colts Militia (@coltsmilitia_)
Nov 9, 2022
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The Walkthrough is the most comprehensive matchups column in the fantasy space. Every Friday, Rotoworld's Pat Kerrane outlines all the critical fantasy football context for each and every game. Today, he shares a team he's excited about for Week 10...
🚀 Saquon Barkley gets the week's juiciest matchup
Obviously, Barkley is the engine of the Giants' offense. Barkley leads all running backs with an 83% snap share this season. And he's been as explosive as ever, ranking first in breakaway yards per game.
Barkley hasn't been as efficient as a receiver, but given his breakaway ability on the ground, it looks like only a matter of time until he delivers more big plays through the air. With a league-leading 69% route rate and an elite 17% target share, he's certainly getting plenty of opportunities to do so.
Getting scripted out of a Texans game isn't a huge concern. Still, Barkley is set up for a ton of work no matter how this game plays out. And honestly, Barkley could be better off if the Giants are forced to throw more than expected. Getting to the quarterback quickly is the one thing the Texans do well on defense. So additional passing attempts could generate additional dump-off opportunities for Barkley, putting him in a position to turn upfield against a pass defense that ranks 24th in EPA allowed per dropback.
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"I'm not worried," he said.
❓ And why would he be?
"We don't think about our record. Our goal is to go 1-0 this week; and if we want to go 1-0 this week, we have to go 1-0 today; and if we want to go 1-0 today, we have to go 1-0 in the drill we're about to do."
This was a month ago, when Nick Sirianni was asked about his Eagles being undefeated and potentially losing focus as a result. He'd said something similar the previous week. He said something similar the following week. (And if he is asked a similar question this week, or next week, or the week beyond, I have to imagine his response will be the same.)
It's difficult to win in the NFL. The parity is extreme, and small edges often make the difference. For teams in the thick of things at the season's mid-point, "focus" probably isn't a major issue. But for teams that have been stuck in a rut, or teams that have been cruising, treating this week like "the most important week of the year" — like "the only week that currently matters" — can become increasingly difficult.
"COOL STORY, HANSEL. BUT WHAT ABOUT ME?"
If you've been in a rut as a DFS player, it's easy to go through the motions — feeling like you're on the way to "draining the whole bankroll anyway, so what's even the point?"
And if you've been on a hot streak, it can become easy to feel like you've found the golden touch — like you don't even have to "put in the time" anymore to gain an edge on the field.
By recognizing this, we can also recognize that huge portions of our competition likely fall into one of these two categories…
…which can make a week like this particularly difficult on them.
This week gives us only five teams(!) implied to score more than 23.5 points (Cowboys 24.0 // Raiders 24.25 // Bears 25.75 // Dolphins 26.0 // Chiefs 30.0) — with only three teams on that list implied to score more than 24.25.
This is a fundamentally BAD setup for DFS roster construction, with very few offenses that have a clear shot at a strong real-life game, and with those "few offenses" clearly a step above the others.
Making things even tougher on DFS players this week is the fact that pricing is in mid-season form, with formerly-underpriced running backs finally priced where they should be, and with elite wide receivers — wideouts capable of putting the slate out of reach — priced in such a way that it's difficult to fit them on a roster with running backs capable of producing a strong score.
Add in a slate with thin value options, and we end up in a spot where the slate is just plain difficult, and if we aren't attacking it with a high level of focus, we'll find ourselves missing the "small edges" that could end up being the difference-makers on the slate.
Most weeks, I use this space to dive into some of the games, situations, or players that might provide us with edges. This week, any such proclamations would be premature, as we should be looking to squeeze every ounce of preparation AND news out of this week before deciding where our greatest edges lie (and/or determining that our greatest edge is to "pile up as many small edges as we can").
POTENTIAL EDGES' TO PAY ATTENTION TO
❓ Unexpected value opening-up
Elite players projecting for low ownership (with so few elite options available on this slate, this can become a major edge; one spot I'll be keeping an eye on is Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce stacks, which may go under-owned as DFS players look to target lower-cost options at these positions in order to open salary for running back and wide receiver)
❓ Common roster construction approaches that we can look to exploit (something we'll likely see)
❓ Opportunities to "be willing to be too early on a player" in order to be on time
❓ That's how you go 1-0 — especially on a week like this.
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💤 A sleeper RB to stash. He's going to get a chance to lead the backfield soon.
👎 This doesn't sound good for Josh Allen. Coaches don't play.
🚑 Uh oh, second straight missed practice for this QB. Might want to prep a backup plan.
❓ If Josh Allen misses Week 10, what does it mean for fantasy managers? Marcas & Dwain break it down.
😭 Wyd, Marcus Mariota. Nooooooo.
⚡ The Chargers are down so bad. They can't catch a break.
🙏🏻 The Commanders desperately deserve a new owner. Despicable behavior.
✈️ C'mon, Geno. Do the high knees on the flight for the bit.
🤯 George Pickens could have a HUGE performance in Week 10. Find out why.
In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.
💸 Jaguars +9.5 (-110)
Jacksonville has rushed for 5.6 yards per carry over their last three games, the third-best mark in the league. The team has smartly committed to second-year RB Travis Etienne, who comes into this game averaging 23.4 carries over his last two outings. Tennessee is another rush-heavy offense that featured an elite between-the-tackles RB and gave Kansas City massive issues last week as the Chiefs allowed 5.9 YPC against and needed OT to secure a win.
Since 2020, Kansas City is just 10-14 ATS as home favorites. Add to that the fact the Chiefs are one of the largest public bets of the week – with 70% of the early bets coming on their side – and Jacksonville sets up as a great road dog to back in Week 10.
💸 Broncos + 3 (-115)
The Titans are coming off an OT game against Kansas City and will be getting a Broncos team who have had 14 days off since their bye. While the Titans have been great at covering as underdogs under Mike Vrbal (17-10 ATS as underdogs since 2019) they’re also just 9-11-1 covering as home favorites since 2019.
The addition of TE Greg Dulcich (who has averaged 15.4 yards per catch in three games) has started to pay dividends as Denver’s offense posted an 8.4 yards per pass attempt mark in their last outing, their best of the year in that regard. The Titans weaker secondary should allow Denver to keep this game close and potentially even pull off the upset against a fatigued Titans squad.
💸 Texans +5 (-110)
While Houston ranks dead last in defensive DVOA against the run, New York isn’t much better ranking out 8th worst in the same metric. Dameon Pierce was able to rush for over 5.6 yards per carry in his last outing against the Eagles and Houston won’t be at much of a rest disadvantage in this game, given they were on Thursday Night Football in Week 9.
This spread looks a touch inflated as well, given that four of the Giants' six wins this year have come by five or fewer points. Houston may only have one win on the year, but they’re a respectable 4-3-1 ATS and look undervalued in this spot.
💸 Top 3 Player Props
- Darnell Mooney Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Jaylen Waddle Over 67.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Russell Wilson Over 226.5 passing yards (-110)
Find out who Matthew is on this week in fantasy! Love/Hate is on NBC Sports Edge, and it's FREE!
ICYMI - It’s #LOVEHATE day! Week 10 is now posted.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Nov 10, 2022
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice...
Week 9 was only halfway kind to us. If you rode with me on Michael Badgley I’m inviting you to join me in being mad at Dan Cambell. Campbell is on his Brandon Staley character arc right now, and I should have known that he would be more aggressive in a game versus the Packers.
Noted. However, Greg Joseph did what needed to be done to finish ahead of the league median last week, so we'll chalk that up to a small victory.
Okay, enough looking in the rearview, let’s turn our attention to Week 10. With Justin Tucker and Evan McPherson on bye this week there’s going to be a lot of streaming in leagues. Here’s who I’m looking to start:
🦵️ Robbie Gould (Linda's Rank: K7)
The 49ers face off against a Chargers team this week who have struggled defensively all season. San Francisco is tied for 3rd in highest implied point total this week and favored against Los Angeles. The Chargers are allowing over 2.0 field goal attempts per game right now and have allowed an average of 2.7 attempts in the last three games. Gould is only rostered in 35% of Yahoo! leagues.
🦵️ Cairo Santos (Linda's Rank: K11)
The Bears offense has been on a roll following their loss to the Commanders in Week 6. They face off a Detroit defense that’s struggled all season but stepped up in Week 9 against Green Bay. There’s a chance that Santos has a Jake Elliott type game, the kind where the Bears are too efficient, and he only gets XP attempts, but Chicago has attempted at least one field goal in all but three games this season.
The Bears are favored this weekend and hold the 4th highest implied point total on the week. Santos is rostered in only 5% of leagues.
You can find my Week 10 kicker rankings at FantasyLife.com.
Who has been the most disappointing player on your fantasy team? 🤔
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Nov 10, 2022
