Kyle Pitts can't break your heart this weekend...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pikkit:
- One player's loss could be another player's gain.
- Rankings Update. Risers, fallers & names to monitor.
- Dear Pete. It's a family affair.
- Bets from the group chat. A Commander to take flight?
- Roster Watch Top Value Plays. Underpriced rookies.
- Its 10/8. Take it away Dwain McFarland...
Week 5 is upon us, and it is time to get our game face on as we prepare for battle.
To kick things off, several meaningful players have already been ruled out.
⚠️ Players Ruled Out & Quick Takeaways:
- RB – D’Andre Swift: Jamaal Williams is a top-12 option again.
- WR – Keenan Allen: Mike Williams and Gerald Everett are must-starts.
- WR – Rashod Bateman: read on to see who benefits most and if there is a prop bet to consider.
- WR – Michael Thomas: Find out who is the primary beneficiary in Top Value Plays from RosterWatch.
- WR – Treylon Burks: Derrick Henry and Robert Woods are the entire offense.
- WR – D.J. Chark: Josh Reynolds (ankle) is a mid-range WR4 if he goes.
- WR – Jahan Dotson: Find out what WR this helps most in Bets From the Group Chat.
- TE – Kyle Pitts: Drake London is going to be the first, second and third read.
- TE – Dawson Knox: Devin Singletary could remain busy in the passing game.
Not only can you track all of your own actions on Pikkit, but you can also tail the Fantasy Life team on all of their best plays!
Our CEO Eliot Crist is 6-3 on his newsletter picks this year and has three more picks for Sunday's action, including:
💰 Eagles -5
This is as one-sided of a matchup as you can have in the NFL. The Eagles have been the league's best team, only needing a half to put away their opponent. Their defense has allowed the lowest drive success rate against, and their offense has the second-highest drive success rate. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank bottom-five in explosive pass rate, play success against, and points allowed.
This should be a one-sided affair that the Eagles roll.
For the rest of the Fantasy Life plays, download the FREE App!
Are free picks not enough?
New users who sign up with promo code LIFE will be entered to win $100 cash.
Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.
Risers
📈 RB – David Montgomery
Montgomery (ankle) practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday and Friday, giving him a chance to play against a Vikings defense that has allowed the eighth-most non-overtime rushing yards and the second-most TDs (seven).
Before suffering an injury in Week 3, Montgomery was the clear-cut No. 1 option in a run-heavy Bears’ offense. He handled 66% and 80% of snaps over the first two games. However, Khalil Herbert has performed well in his stead, and Chicago could limit Montgomery in his first game back.
Montgomery is a low-end RB2 if he is active against the Vikings.
📈 RB – Breece Hall
Hall’s utilization profile has improved every week. In Week 4, he hit season highs in snaps (66%), rushing attempts (65%), and route participation (59%). Over the last two games, he has taken over the short-yardage work and most passing-down opportunities.
The rookie also has a sparkling efficiency profile averaging 3.37 yards after contact with a 16% explosive rush rate, per PFF. Michael Carter will remain involved, but Hall is due for an eruption game.
Hall ranks eight spots ahead of industry consensus at RB17 in Week 5 against the Dolphins.
📈 RB – Rashaad Penny
Penny doesn’t have an easy matchup against the Saints, who rank ninth in rushing defense per PFF grades. However, the Saints have given up the fifth-most rushing attempts (124) in non-overtime play, and Penny ranks seventh in Rush Percentage over Expectation (48%) per Next Gen Stats.
Seattle’s surge to 66 plays per game over the last two games, paired with Penny’s clear grip on the lead role (three games with 67%-plus snap share), means the veteran should see plenty of opportunities. If the Seahawks fall behind, Penny has picked up about half of the passing-down work since Travis Homer’s injury.
Kenneth Walker III caps his upside from a 30-attempt game, but Penny’s utilization and talent profile provide a lot of outs against the Saints.
Penny ranks 15 spots ahead of industry consensus as my RB16 in Week 5.
📈 WR – Devin Duvernay
Rashod Bateman is out in a potential shootout against the Bengals on Sunday Night Football, providing an opportunity for Duvernay to expand his role.
The third-year WR averaged 2.07 yards per route run with a 16% target rate over the first four games. He isn’t going to dominate looks with Mark Andrews around, but he could come through with some big plays.
🤑 Duvernay has 54, 42, 25, and 41 yards receiving, playing limited snaps. He could easily eclipse that in a potential shootout with the Bengals in a larger role.
Duvernay's receiving line is 35.5 yards -115 on BetMGM, and we're betting the over with confidence.
Duvernay moves into boom-bust WR4 territory in a game that could provide a lot of scoring.
📈 TE – O.J. Howard
The Texans released Pharaoh Brown, and Brevin Jordan is out this weekend. In Week 4, Howard registered a 65% route participation and a 15% target share. His target rate (TPRR) is also impressive on the season at 23%.
If he pushes to 80% route participation, he will be a low-end TE1 the rest of the way, making him a nice speculative pickup in deeper leagues.
Howard is a mid-range TE2 with upside in Week 5 if you are dealing with injuries.
Fallers
📉 RB – Khalil Herbert
With David Montgomery sounding like he has a real chance to play this weekend, Herbert drops to RB4 territory. However, if Montgomery doesn’t play, he will climb to high-end RB2 status against the Vikings.
Monitoring
👀 RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Tony Pollard (illness) is questionable. If he doesn’t play, Elliott will have an every-down role. However, the Cowboys face a Rams defense allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards in non-overtime play.
Elliott will climb to low-end RB2 status if Pollard is out.
👀 WR – Isaiah McKenzie
McKenzie (concussion) is questionable but trending in the right direction after two limited practice sessions. With Jamison Crowder out for the season, McKenzie could slide into a full-time role in the slot.
🤑 If the veteran WR plays, he makes for a nice prop bet. Currently, his receiving yards total on BetMGM (33.5) is below his season average (38.2) in a limited role.
You can bet this up to 37.5 yards at -115 and still have a nice edge.
McKenzie currently ranks 25 spots above consensus at WR as a high-end WR4. If McKenzie can’t play, Khalil Shakir moves into high-end WR4 territory.
🍴 This RB is ready to eat. Should have gone Fish and Chips.
🤔 Should this offense ground and pound? One sharp says they should.
⛏ Unearthing a data nugget for every Week 5 game. Now that is a slow offense.
🌋 Breece Hall is about to erupt. Get on the hype train before it's too late.
🎱 Is there any good RB news in 2022? Signs point to yes.
⚠️ This offense might not be the same this weekend. He will be missed.
😲 Are rich people really that smart? Not always.
Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Pete is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com
❤️️ Kendall's Mom
Dear Pete, First of all, I have to say I really enjoy the Sirius XM show you co-host with my daughter Kendall even though I do not have a clue what you are talking about. My dilemma is with Kendall.
I am in a pick'em pool and regularly ask her for advice on game day with my picks. She doesn't give me straight-up answers and tells me, "Oh, that's an interesting choice" or " Hmm, that game could go either way." I am already down $10.00 and could be down $60.00 by the time the season ends. Should I even consult her? — Daughter Dilemma
DEAR DAUGHTER DILEMMA: It’s nice knowing at least ONE of our moms regularly listens to the show. I’m pretty sure my mom is already listening to Christmas music (it’s every weekday from 11 am-1 pm, btw Mom).
I think it’s terrific that you and Kendall are bonding through this pick’ em pool, although it is concerning Kendall feels reluctant to “plant her flag” on picks. To me, this signals a sense of fear that you might ridicule or needle her if she’s wrong.
I think if you could assure her there will be no blowback if she gets something wrong, she might be more willing to open up and share her thoughts. Us fantasy analysts are constantly getting trolled when we whiff, so I think it’s natural for Kendall to want to sidestep a similar dynamic with her own mother.
Another option would be to offer Kendall a stake in the profits (maybe you could call it an “allowance” for old-time’s sake?). Having skin in the game would surely incentivize Kendall to get in the weeds with you on these selections.
If all else fails, I think you should call into the show one of these days and hash it out. I can help mediate.
Until then, take the Patriots -3 this weekend. Just don’t @ me if I’m wrong.
Dear Pete, how do you think the undefeated 1972 Dolphins would hold in today's NFL if they were in their prime? — Dolphin Doug
DEAR DOLPHIN DOUG: Great question. The quick answer is they would get their teeth kicked in.
The slightly longer answer is that we have a decent comp to a 1970s offense in the Chicago Bears, which currently have 390 passing yards through four games and are the worst offense in football. During their undefeated season, the Dolphins had a stretch from Week 5 to Week 8, where they combined for 328 passing yards.
The athletes now are simply bigger and faster and better at football. It’s akin to asking how the original Apple Macintosh computer from 1984 would do in a 2022 NASA Control room.
It’s not just human evolution, either. The training and medical resources teams have access to are lightyears ahead of whatever voodoo doll treatment they were doing in the 70s. Gale Sayers had his career derailed due to an ACL injury in 1968 because medical procedures for knee injuries weren’t anywhere close to where they are today. Flash forward to 2022, and Chris Godwin returned from a similar injury in NINE MONTHS.
It’s cute when the ‘72 Dolphins break out the champagne every year to celebrate their unbeaten streak in the same way it's cute when little kids pretend to host a tea party.
The 2022 Bills would beat them 80-0.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Eliot came up with for Week 5...
🔥 Jalen Hurts Over 255.5 Passing Yards
Jalen Hurts has an elite matchup this week against an abysmal Arizona secondary. The Cardinals rank 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed and 26th in EPA per dropback. Jalen Hurts should be able to take advantage of that leaky secondary if his early season play is indicative of the strides he has taken as a passer.
Through the first four weeks, Hurts is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, the most in football. Hurts has only gone over this number in 2/4 games this season. However, the Eagles have also been on cruise control in the second half of games or playing in horrendous conditions.
Indoors this week, with just a 5-point spread, the game should remain competitive, and Hurts should pick them apart through the air. Look for Hurts to sail over this total, and he is a strong ladder play as well.
🔥 Terry McLaurin Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
Speaking of bad pass defenses, the Titans have been abysmal to start the season. They have been giving up chunk plays like no other, allowing the highest completion percentage (64.3%) on deep passes of any team in the league. While Terry McLaurin has had a disappointing start to the season, he still leads the team in both aDot (15) and air yard share (31%), and with no Jahan Dotson in this one, should be the chess piece for Washington to take advantage of an exploitable matchup.
🔥 Ja’Marr Chase Over 70.5 Receiving Yards
I am not one to place stock in how players have performed versus teams in past matchups, as historically, it is noisy and not predictive.
However, what Ja’Marr Chase has done to the Ravens is borderline illegal. Chase averaged 10 targets, 7.5 catches, 163 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns against Baltimore last year. The Ravens’ secondary has been torn up this year when they didn't have hurricane-like conditions or a matchup against Joe Flacco to protect them.
Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVante Parker all had over 150 yards receiver against them. It should surprise no one if Chase does something similar to those players Sunday night.
Don't forget to track all your bets with Pikkit, which automatically syncs with the places you make bets so you never have to manually input anything:
Playing the best players is easy enough, but value is where it's at in DFS. Every other week Alex from Roster Watch will be dropping by the Fantasy Life offices to give you his top DFS values of the week.
✅ Chris Olave, WR Saints ($5700 on DK)
I'm going back to the well with Chris Olave, even though, as predicted, his price is nowhere near the $4500 we recommended playing him at in this write-up back in Week 3. The Saints look to once again be without QB Jameis Winston and fellow WR Michael Thomas in Week 5, meaning another week of Andy Dalton at the helm as New Orleans takes on Seattle at home. In Week 4, with Dalton under center, Olave led the Saints in targets (7) and turned in a 16.7-fantasy point performance.
Dalton was comfortable getting the ball to Olave in the downfield situations of 20-plus yards that buoy Olave's upside (Olave leads the NFL in targets of over 20 yards) and in high-leverage, shorter-area situations to take advantage of Olave's elite route-running.
This Seattle defense was torched last week by an inferior but stylistically similar WR to Olave, in Josh Reynolds. Olave will have his chances to hit big this week, and I'm betting on his talent to take full advantage of another nice performance.
✅ George Pickens, WR Steelers ($4300 on DK)
The changing of the guard to QB Kenny Pickett in Week 4 felt like the catalyst to Pickens' true ascension to alpha status within the Pittsburgh offense, and he's a bet-on-talent play at this price.
Per Pro Football Focus, Pickens was targeted on 33.3% of his routes once Pickett took over for Trubisky, as opposed to 28.6% in the first half of the game. Pickens was targeted on just 12.9% of his routes over the first three weeks. He's ascending.
Furthermore, Pickens generated an outrageous 5.92 yards per route run with Pickett under center. For context, guys like Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown, who are tops among qualifying NFL receivers in the metric, are both under 4 yards per route run on the season. Everything looks good outside of the tough matchup at Buffalo, but that is baked into the price, and I'm again going to bet on talent winning out.
Check out RosterWatch for more from Alex and the rest of the crew!
