🔎 2 Sneaky Matchups to Target

Let’s get Payton and Hackett mic’d up on Sunday. Who says no?

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Unabated:

So far this season, every Sunday has been about one game.

Last week, our focus was on the Dolphins-Bills game. In Week 3, everyone was hoping they had pieces of the Chargers’ or Vikings’ passing attacks. But we’ve got rosters with players in every game. And because of the bye week, fantasy managers may have some tough decisions on their hands.

To help, I found two lowkey matchups with some FLEX options to get you through Week 5.

👀 Titans at Colts

A game with a 43-point total? And Ryan Tannehill is one of the QBs?

Trust me, I get it. Both teams run fewer plays than the league average. But on the Titans’ side, if Tannehill lets one loose, at least we have a pretty good idea of who will be on the other end.

Titans win.

— Deandre Hopkins (@DeAndreHopkins)
Oct 2, 2023

At 31 years young, DeAndre Hopkins still has the juice to get past a defense.

Hopkins leads the Titans in targets (31). His 29.8% TPRR ranks sixth amongst all WRs, ahead of other high-end WRs like Justin Jefferson (28.1%), Keenan Allen (28.0%), and Stefon Diggs (27.7%).

The problem is we haven’t seen the big stats turn into big-time production.

Through four weeks, Nuk is yet to post top-12 results with only modest stat lines like what we saw in Week 4 (7-65-0). But he’s got a shot to perform against the Colts’ secondary, given what they’ve allowed to opposing WRs:

• Calvin Ridley, 11-101-1 (WR6)

• Nico Collins, 9-146-1 (WR5)

• Puka Nacua, 10-163-1 (WR4)

No Treylon Burks for Tennessee, and Jonathan Taylor’s potential return may give the Colts’ offense the pop it needs to keep Tannehill throwing. Regardless, you could do worse than rely on Hopkins for a big game this weekend.

😏 Texans at Falcons

Yeah, I know, I know. With a 41.5-point total, this one isn’t any better.

But we know at least one of these offenses can pop at a moment’s notice.

NICO COLLINS IS JUST LIKE THAT

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans)
Oct 1, 2023

You don’t need me to tell you to start Nico Collins. He’s been a WR2 or better in three of four games. But Tank Dell’s dip in Week 4 may have folks hesitating. However, CJ Stroud was under duress at the second-highest rate this past week, forcing him to look elsewhere.

Luckily, the Falcons are below average in pressure and sack rate, giving him and Dell more time to connect. And after seeing Ridley shake loose for a score on the perimeter (albeit on a busted coverage), Dell (at a 20.5% TPRR over the last three weeks) can get back into the mix this weekend.

And, in a pinch, starting Tyler Allgeier on the other side isn’t indefensible.

He’s down to about a third of the RB carries (36.8%) over the last two weeks but has a higher forced missed tackle rate than Bijan Robinson, with a similar rushing success rate (35.7% to 37.5%). Plus, Allgeier is still a factor in the passing game.

He actually has a higher TPRR than Robinson (31.3% to 19.3%). But, of course, who’s gonna say Allgeier needs more touches when Robinson can routinely juke defenders out of their cleats? With the Texans being below average in run-stop win rate and rushing success rate allowed, we could see Robinson and Allgeier find the paint in Week 5.

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Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitiz dove deep into their rankings to find a few players they’re willing to push into their starting lineup for Week 5.

Heading into Week 4, we were starting to learn something about the league. And headed into Week 5, we’re reminded we know nothing. Or, we at least need to keep our head on a swivel.

Justin Fields threw for 17 TDs over the course of the entire ‘22 season. He has eight in the last seven days. As a result, DJ Moore is on pace to hit a career-high in receiving TDs. Coincidentally, the Panthers are looking to trade for a WR1.

It just goes to show you how fast our results and our perceptions of players can change. And as they shift, so do our roster decisions.

So, as we head into another slate of games, our rankings squad got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus.

So, if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 5, check out their notes before kickoff.

⭐ WR – Nico Collins (Texans) at Falcons

The case for Collins comes down to the fact that rookie QB CJ Stroud has thrown for more yards (970) than anyone in football over the past three weeks of action.

The WR8 in full PPR scoring, Collins has ripped off two top-five finishes during this stretch on his way to emerging as the offense’s No. 1 pass-game option. Overall, Collins has commanded a whopping 35.2% of his team's air yards and 23% of the targets.

Another case for why the good times should continue to roll: Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik’s ability to keep everything humming even while dealing with the league’s single-most banged-up offensive line.

This is a top-three offense in yards after the catch per completion, alongside the Dolphins and Chiefs. The Texans also boast the fourth-lowest deep pass rate in the league: They are clearly playing to their strengths so far – which makes sense!

Ultimately, Stroud and company boast the league’s seventh-highest explosive pass play rate and rank third in yards per attempt.

The 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 2 overall pick isn’t just playing well relative to rookie-year expectations – Stroud has been working as one of the league’s most efficient passers regardless of experience through the first four weeks of 2023.

Kudos to the Falcons for having allowed just 127, 140, 243 (Lions), and 195 passing yards this season; conquering this unit would be yet another feather in Stroud’s hat – something I expect him to accomplish in style ALONGSIDE his No. 1 WR, Nico Collins.

- Ian

🚀 RB – D’Andre Swift (Eagles) at Rams

Since his Week 2 breakout with Kenneth Gainwell sidelined, Swift’s role has expanded. Over the last two games with both backs available, Swift has dominated all utilization aspects outside of the two-minute offense.

While we would love for Swift to pick up those sweet passing down snaps, the Eagles aren’t often facing game scripts that demand catch-up mode, which lessens the blow. Of course, that could change at any time – Swift is one of the best passing-down backs in the league, which makes Gainwell a luxury, not a necessity.

The more significant challenge for Swift is Jalen Hurts once they are in scoring position. The QB and Swift have split the carries inside the five-yard line 50/50 over the last two weeks.

Despite Hurts and Gainwell’s roles, Swift has back-to-back high-end RB2 finishes with 15 and 18 fantasy points. His role is enough in a high-quality offense that converts 41% of their possessions into scores – fourth most in the NFL.

This weekend, the Eagles carry a top-three team total (27) in a matchup against the Rams with the second-highest game total (50) on the slate. Los Angeles has been middle-of-the-pack against the run, allowing 111 yards per game, but they have had issues tackling as PFF’s seventh-worst graded unit (42.6).

Look for another 15-plus fantasy performance from the Eagles' No. 1 RB, who I have ranked almost eight spots ahead of the Fantasy Life consensus.

- Dwain

😤 De’Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Giants

• Dolphins: -12.5

• O/U: 47.5

• TT: 30

In Weeks 3-4, when Achane saw his first extended NFL action, the rookie looked like the second coming of Chris Johnson with 26-304-4 rushing and 7-49-2 receiving on nine targets. His talent is legit.

He has the upside to go off for his third consecutive 100-yard game as a big home favorite against the Giants, who are No. 24 in defensive rush EPA (-0.021).

- Freedman

✍️ Start Jonathan Taylor? Bench Joe Burrow??? Everything you need to know for Week 5.

🤑 Looking for sharp DFS tournament plays and pivots? Our friends at The Touchdown Press got ya covered.

🎉 The Rams update we all needed. COOPER KUPP IS BACK, BABY!

🚑 Cooper Kupp is back, but what about everyone else? Updates on EVERY Week 5 injury.

🌇 ARSB DOUBTFUL for Sunday. Things are dark in Detroit without the Sun God.

🍿 The Cowboys and Niners face off on Sunday night. And the NFL found the perfect spokesman to preview the matchup.

😰 Sam Howell may break a record this year. But it’s not the type of accolade you want for a QB.

💪 Ravens getting healthy at the right time? Two starters could return in Week 5.

⚕ Travis Kelce responds to “Mr. Pfizer” comment. We think he took the high road.

🤝 NFL teams already making moves before the trade deadline. Can’t wait to see what happens on Oct. 31st.

An all-encompassing Week 5 preview breaking down EVERY game with an array of advanced analytics as well as devoted film analysis from a champion expert in the field who just so happens to also be a rather great writer — is that something you might be interested in? Well, good, because Legendary Upside founder and Fantasy Life partner Pat Kerrane is here to spread the good word ahead of Week 5…

De'Von Achane crushed against the Broncos in Week 3, with only a 42% snap share. Then against the Bills, he was up to 66% of snaps, with a 47% carry share and a 13% target share. It was the kind of day that makes it hard not to think that Achane is emerging as the starter in Miami.

Per PFF, Achane’s Week 4 workload was worth 14.2 expected PPR points, while Raheem Mostert’s was worth 9.2.

After Achane’s terrific showing against Denver, Miami used a trailing script against Buffalo to get a longer look at him.

But over the last two weeks, Achane has feasted on non-competitive snaps, so it’s hard to know what his true role looks like. Still, it’s hard not to take notice of his usage last week, given the massive ceiling he keeps hinting at.

And I think, collectively, we get why the Dolphins would turn the backfield over to Achane going forward. The rookie has been as electric as it gets.

Anchane is absolutely destroying every per-attempt rushing metric. Even more impressively – and somewhat stunningly, given his part-time usage – Achane is elite in the per-game rushing metrics as well. The rookie ranks first in rush yards over expected per game and breakaway yards per game. Achane has 27 career carries, yet he's putting up elite per-game numbers. It's wild stuff.

You may hear talk of negative regression this week.

Since Achane is RB1 in like… every rushing metric. Yeah, that’s fair. He can’t run even close to this hot for long.

But regression is not a force that universally levels players to league average. When regression comes for Achane, it will return him to a productivity level commensurate with his talent. And it is abundantly clear that Achane is extremely talented.

The rookie now faces a Giants defense that ranks 24th in EPA allowed per rush and ranks 27th in PFF's run grades. That defense is also attached to a flailing offense that won't be able to keep up with the Dolphins for long. With the Dolphins playing from out from this week, you have to think they'll be excited to deploy their talented young RB.

Achane is risky. If this game remains competitive, his role could be much smaller than ideal. But that is a risk worth taking in this matchup because Achane can take over this matchup.

Logan Thomas could end up being this year's Logan Thomas

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco)
Oct 6, 2023