📣 2 Superstar WRs Returning?

A food coma, Black Friday crowds and a 0-0 tie... Sunday, please get here soon.

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by King Kong:

• Can we trust Marquise Brown and Ja'Marr Chase?
• Rankings Update. The RB2 carousel has 3 new riders.
• Dear Pete. An unfortunate bet.
• Bets from the group chat. 3 WR overs to pound.
• Regression Session. This TE is due.
• A late week injury to monitor...
• Its 11/26. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...

Injuries are a brutal part of fantasy football that can send our emotions into the depths of despair. On the flip side, when we get a superstar back from injury, nothing is more satisfying than inserting them back into our lineup, but it can be tricky at times (see Mike Williams last week).

This weekend, we could be forced to make a call on two high-end WRs that fit this mold.

👀 WR – Marquise Brown 

Brown is expected to suit up on Sunday against the Chargers.

Over the first six weeks of the season, Brown averaged 18.3 points per game with a career-high 26% target share. However, we could see a performance hit as the veteran WR gets back to full speed, and the team could limit his reps.

The Cardinals are in a must-win scenario and don't have many other options right now outside of DeAndre Hopkins. Zach Ertz is out for the season, Rondale Moore is out, and Greg Dortch (thumb) is a game-time decision. As much as the coaching staff might want to limit Brown, there is a chance that he plays more than we expect.

The matchup against the Chargers profiles as one of the better shootout opportunities on the slate, with a 48-point game total. 

Brown is a mid-range WR3 that ranks in Tier 4 with players like Garrett Wilson, Joshua Palmer, Christian Watson, and Parris Campbell. He can remain on the bench behind Tier 3 options like Chris Godwin, Michael Pittman Jr., Keenan Allen, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

👀 WR – Ja’Marr Chase

According to head coach Zac Taylor, Chase will be a game-time decision but had a good week of practice.

The second-year WR never made it to a full practice participation this week, but Taylor indicated that doesn't preclude Chase from suiting up. Fortunately, the Bengals play in the early window, so fantasy managers will be able to act accordingly.

When Chase does return, we can expect him to perform near pre-injury levels. Of course, the wildcard is whether the Bengals put him on a snap count or not, and we might not have that information before kickoff.

Given the risk of a limited workload, Chase ranks as my WR11 and my No. 29 ranked player overall. That puts him in Tier 2 with guys like Tee Higgins, Terry McLaurin, Chris Olave and Mike Evans and ahead of Tier 3 with guys like Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman Jr. and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.

📈 Risers

📈 QB – Kyler Murray 

Murray was removed from the injury report after three full practices and should be near 100%.

The Cardinals square off against the Chargers in a game with shootout potential (48-point game total), and Murray should have DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown on the field together for the first time in 2022.

The veteran QB has underperformed compared to the elite options, but he averages 38.9 rushing yards per game, which keeps him in the mid-range QB1 conversation.

Murray is the QB7 this weekend.

📈 RB – Jeff Wilson Jr.

Raheem Mostert (knee) is doubtful for a juicy matchup against a Texans defense that invites a whopping 34.6 rushing attempts per game in non-overtime play. Houston ranks third-worst in PFF run defense grade (38.3).

Dolphins’ RBs, with at least a 60% snap share, are averaging 15.7 attempts and 3.2 targets per game. Miami leans to the pass more than the NFL average in trailing, close and leading game scripts, but as 14-point favorites, there is a lot of room for Wilson to pick up touches.

Wilson ranks No. 6 in attempts of 10-plus yards (15%) and has the No. 17 PFF rush grade.

The Dolphins carry a 30.5 team total, and Wilson should touch the ball 20+ times, making him a SMASH play as the RB14.

📈 RB – Rachaad White

Leonard Fournette (hip) is doubtful, which means White is in line for an expanded workload. White stepped up his utilization starting in Week 4, but it stalled out with the rookie failing to make much out of his touches.

Rachaad White efficiency data out of 48 RBs with at least 60 attempts:

Missed Tackles Forced: 12% (40th)
Yards After Contact: 2.33 (46th)
10-plus yard attempts: 8.3% (34th)

PFF Rush Grade: 67 (37th)

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
Nov 25, 2022

To be fair, Fournette hasn’t performed any better – his numbers are almost identical to White’s across the board. Both have been equally meh behind PFF’s second-worst graded offensive line (65.2).

Volume is king, but even with volume, Fournette hasn’t been able to come through this season. In games with 70%-plus snaps, he has finishes of RB18, RB27, RB26, RB5 and RB17. Considering their similar efficiency data points, it is hard to assume White will explode.

Fortunately for White, the Browns could provide him with the efficiency boost we need – they are the worst-graded PFF run defense (29.9) and allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game (136) in non-overtime play.

Giovani Bernard returns to action this weekend and could challenge for passing-down snaps, but White’s role as the leading runner should be safe.

White climbs to RB15, making him a must-start in most formats.

📈 RB – Samaje Perine 

Joe Mixon (concussion) won’t play, opening the door for Perine to serve as the lead back for the Bengals in Week 12. While the volume should be there, historically, Perine isn’t a very efficient RB, and the Titans are extremely good against the run.

Tennessee is the No. 3 PFF run defense and allows the fewest rushing yards per game (81) in non-overtime play. On the flip side, they allow the second-most passing yards at 282, and the Bengals throw the ball more than the NFL average in trailing, close, and leading game scripts.

We could see most of the Bengals attack channeled via the passing game. Perine has a solid 21% TPRR and collected four receptions for 54 yards and three TDs last week. However, Cincinnati was not targeting their backs as much before the Ja’Marr Chase injury.

Perine ranks as my RB23, but if Chase is out, he could perform more like a mid-range RB2.

📉 Fallers 

📉 QB – Justin Fields

Fields will be a game-time decision due to a non-throwing-shoulder injury he suffered in Week 11. He couldn’t get in a full practice this week, and Trevor Siemian will start if Fields can’t play.

According to PFF grades, the Jets are the second-best coverage unit and fifth-best run defense, which already made this a tricky spot for the second-year QB. If he plays, he could be limited and carries the risk of re-injury.

Fields moves out of the top-three options down to QB9.

Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Pete is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com

Dear Pete, are you excited to play pickleball soon? You better film it. P.S. Samaje Perine or Rachaad White this week? - PETE LOVES PICKLEBALL DEEP DOWN

DEAR PETE LOVES PICKLEBALL DEEP DOWN: First of all, objection, your honor. I do not love pickleball “deep down”...or anywhere, for that matter. 

In fact, I’ve waged a multi-month campaign against Pickleball and am loudly on record as despising this geriatric sport that was co-opted by hipsters and pushed by a cabal of opportunistic celebrities and has since destroyed our communities and stripped our children of their public spaces.

That said, I’m a man of my word, and on October 27th I hastily fired off a tweet that I am now massively regretting:

if chase is back in less than a month ill play pickleball

— 🚫pickleball pete (@peteroverzet)
Oct 27, 2022

As someone who is heavily invested in Ja’Marr Chase across a variety of formats and was worried he might be placed on IR, I thought I could “reverse jinx” a quick recovery for Chase.

Well, fast forward to today, and Chase is a game-time decision for tomorrow’s game vs. the Titans after getting in a good week of practices with no setbacks. 

This is basically the worst-case scenario for my wager:

1. I wasn’t able to jinx Chase back early, and he could return on the very last eligible day 
2. Even though he might be active, he might not play much as they ease him back in

I couldn’t agree more with what someone recently commented: “The fact that Chase is coming back so quickly makes me think that Big Pickleball got to him in order to punish Pete, their number one foe.”

Let’s just say if I have to play this godforsaken sport, *and* Chase doesn’t clear at least 15 fantasy points, I’m going to tilt my face off. 

And yes, someone has already told me about filming this nonsense if it happens. Just don’t hold your breath for the footage right away. I’m not skipping my child’s birth to pay off this disgusting bet.

As for your question… I like both of these RB plays, but give the nod to White. Both will mostly enjoy their respective backfields to themselves, but the Bucs have a much more favorable matchup for RBs than the Bengals, who square off against Tennessee’s number-one run defense (DVOA). 

Also, why would you play Perine when you know Chase is getting all the TDs? Right? RIGHT?!

PLEASE, JA’MARR, I’M BEGGING YOU.

📺 A record-setting game. It's been a while since both teams were good.

🥊 Rivalry games can get heated. Maybe even more so if you are a Sun Devil?

💎 The dreaded late-week injury. Hope he is okay, he has been a fantasy gem.

🤔 From the practice squad to a sizable role? He will have to earn it.

🤬 Well, what happened was... This post-game presser still holds up.

🧠 How do you read QB, RB, WR and TE? Our brains are weird, y'all.

👩‍⚖️ Lmao, he finally did it. He defeated the primetime allegations.

😒 Some wounds never heal. This former Cowboy was triggered.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Eliot came up with for Week 12...

🔥 George Pickens Over 41.5 Receiving Yards -115 BetMGM

This is a tough matchup for George Pickens and the Steelers, as the Colts' defense is the No. 1 defense against WRs (DVP). However, books have not adjusted to Pickens’ new role without Chase Claypool in the lineup, keeping his line too low. Pickens has also shown far more chemistry with rookie QB Kenny Pickett than Mitch Trubisky. 

With Pickett under center, Pickens is averaging 55 yards on 5.86 targets per game, a major rise from his 21.6 receiving yards and 4.3 targets per game with Trubisky. The second half of the year is the time to buy rookie receivers, and with our projection of 58 receiving yards this week, Pickens is the rookie WR to buy this week.

🔥 Davante Adams Over 85.5 Receiving Yards -115 BetMGM

Dominant doesn't even begin to describe Davante Adams this year without Darren Waller on the field. He is averaging 105 receiving yards per game without Waller, and that includes his flu-game performance of a measly 3 yards.

Fresh off his masterful performance against Patrick Surtain, one of the league's top young corners, Adams has seen 44 targets in his last three games. With this type of volume, any prop line under 100 yards is simply too low, as we have him projected for 108 yards. 

🔥 Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Receiving Yards  -115 BetMGM

As Matt Lamarca pointed out in his Falcons vs. Commanders game preview, Terry McLaurin has seen elite usage with Taylor Heinicke under center. With a 31.6% target share and 54.6% of Washington’s air yards, McLaurin is averaging 85 yards and 8.6 targets with Heinicke.

Last week he had 55 receiving yards at the half, but because Washington had a commanding lead, they relied on their run game to close it out. The lack of usage keeps his prop line lower this week, and we look to take advantage. 

For more picks, head over to Fantasy Life’s newly launched game hub.

When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.

⬆️ Positive Regression - Pat Freiermuth

It might surprise some people to hear that Freiermuth is the TE4 in expected half PPR points per game this season. Fantasy managers haven’t been thrilled with his production, largely due to the fact that he has just one TD on the year.

His role has quietly grown in recent weeks, averaging nearly 9 targets per game over his last four contests. That kind of volume will produce some big scores sooner or later.

The Steelers' next three matchups are against teams who rank in the league's bottom half at defending the TE position. They are a well-coached team, so I expect them to try to take advantage of this and keep Freiermuth heavily involved, and he is talented enough to take advantage. Roll him out with confidence in your lineup.

⬇️ Negative Regression - Christian Watson

This isn’t to say the Watson breakout isn’t real, he appears to be a very talented player, but five TDs on eight catches in the past two weeks is the definition of unsustainable production. He may have cemented himself as the Packers’ top WR for the stretch run, but I don’t expect him to continue posting top-5 WR performances.

Over the past two weeks, Watson has earned just under a 24% target share and posted his two highest aDOT performances by a wide margin. This is a great sign for his long-term value, and we may even see his role grow slightly from here, but we can’t expect him to hit on big plays and TDs at the rate he has recently.

You should absolutely be excited to have Watson on your roster, but his underlying usage suggests a solid WR2 is a more realistic expectation than his scores in the last two weeks.