Black Friday is all about insane deals, yummy leftovers, and watching Tim Boyle play football…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by GameBlazers:
- The Jets and Steelers shake it up
- Thanksgiving props: RBs set to EAT on Thanksgiving
- An update on Mark Andrews
- Buy, Sell, Hold: Sell a Jags WR
- Bets from the Group Chat: We got you covered for Thursday
- It’s 11/22. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
There’s only one thing more frustrating than watching a team underperform and that’s watching a team underperform and do nothing about it.
That’s been the case with both the Jets’ QB situation and the Steelers’ entire offense up until this week…
❌ Zach Wilson benched
Ever since Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles on the fourth offensive snap of the season, the team has stubbornly continued to trot out Zach Wilson at QB.
Despite egregiously poor play from Wilson, coach Robert Saleh repeatedly told us that they were sticking with him.
It was a vaguely justifiable position when the team was winning games, but after three straight losses, they’ve finally capitulated and named a new starting QB, Tim Boyle.
And despite many of us—myself included—beating the drum for “anyone but Wilson” at QB, the Jets might have found the only QB who isn’t an obvious upgrade in Boyle.
In fact, you could make the case that Boyle hasn’t been good since high school:
Career NFL Stats:
- 60% completion Rate
- 3 TDs
- 9 Interceptions
- 5.1 yards per attempt
College Stats (19 games at UCONN):
- 48.4% completion rate
- 4.5 yards per attempt
- 1 TD
- 13 Interceptions
The Rodgers injury was an unfortunate break for the Jets, but they are entirely to blame for this predicament.
While smart teams like the Niners (Sam Darnold) and Dolphins (Mike White) solidified their backup QB position in the offseason—or patched it together on the fly like the Vikings (Joshua Dobbs)—the Jets lazily assumed nothing could possibly go wrong with Rodgers.
And now we are all paying for it.
Our collective reward for their incompetence? Getting to watch Boyle play in the first—and likely the last after Amazon sees the product—Black Friday game.
❌ Matt Canada sent packing
The Jets weren’t the only team to capitulate to the mounting pressure of an anemic offense as the Steelers fired long-time OC Matt Canada yesterday.
The move marked the first time the organization has made an in-season coaching change since 1941.
If you are wondering why they moved on, here is how the Steelers offense ranked across the league in a variety of statistical categories with Canada as OC:
- Offensive PPG: 17.9 (28th)
- Total YPG: 310.1 (28th)
- Yards per play: 4.8 (30th)
- Red zone TD pct.: 52% (27th)
- No 1st down pct: 37% (30th)
The real question now is how much of the struggles were Canada’s doing, and how much of the blame should Kenny Pickett shoulder?
It was obvious that Canada was not scheming a quality offense, but Pickett has also shown very little promise in his own right.
Still, it’s hard not to be optimistic about the offense improving going forward. They’ll get a chance to prove the oddsmakers wrong on Sunday when they square off against the Bengals in another game with an absurdly low total (34.5, per the Game Hub).
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Need some props to get you through an extra-long Thanksgiving dinner? Ian has you covered…
Of course, the only thing cooler than watching football and eating all day is watching football and eating all day while making some freaking money, baby.
What follows are nine Thanksgiving prop bets that I will personally be putting some money on this week. Lines are as of Tuesday afternoon.
📈 Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 27.5 receiving yards (-114)
Fantasy Life projections currently have Gibbs at 35 yards this week – and for good reason: The rookie has been on absolute fire ever since returning from injury in Week 7:
- Week 7: 9-58-0 (10 targets)
- Week 8: 5-37-0 (5)
- Week 9: BYE
- Week 10: 3-35-0 (5)
- Week 11: 6-59-0 (6)
The latter two performances featured the return of David Montgomery, but unlike earlier in the season, Gibbs has continued to be the clear-cut lead back in pass-first situations.
Even somewhat annoying early-season usage hasn’t stopped the Lions from feeding the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 12 overall pick in the pass game all season long: Only Alvin Kamara (8, lol) is averaging more targets per game than Gibbs (5.5) this season.
Throw in the potential absence of No. 1 LB De’Vondre Campbell (neck), and Gibbs has a winnable matchup on top of his always-present combination of volume and receiving skill.
Turkey Day prop goodness you need to see to believe
🙏 An update on Mark Andrews. Is there a small chance he could return?
📺 Prepping your fantasy football team > Prepping your Thanksgiving meal. Everything you need to dominate Week 12.
👑 Mike Tomlin on what he wants to see differently. Big same, big big same.
👀 The best Week 12 plays at EVERY position. Freedman has you covered.
📲 Imagine getting this phone call while watching TV. Back to work!
📈 RBs that are set to DOMINATE? Utilization takeaways from Week 11.
➡️ An important PSA for fantasy players and athletes. Well said.
🚀 Always stay one step ahead. Four players on the cusp of breaking out.
🤔 What is wrong with the Chiefs this year? This is a concerning trend.
📊 Thanksgiving projections are live. Get the biggest player prop edges and make your best bets.
🤯 This is a crazy stat. I refuse to believe it’s true.
Week 11 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…
🛒BUY - Michael Pittman Jr., WR - Colts
While everyone was checking their recipes and prepping their Thanksgiving plans last weekend, Michael Pittman Jr. was quietly sneaking past Week 11 during his Bye.
Sure, Pittman hasn’t been super sexy this year. And while he hasn’t come close to breaking into the 20-point fantasy range since Week 1, there’s also been very little volatility in his fantasy production. He’s scored double-digit points the last five weeks in a row.
Not only is Pittman consistently producing, but he’s about to be facing up against some defenses that have been rather friendly to the WR position so far this season. Over the next few weeks, the Colts face three defenses ranked 24th or lower against the WR position through their next four matchups.
Average points allowed to the WR position:
- Week 12: Buccaneers, allowing 39.2 (Ranked 27th)
- Week 13: Titans, allowing 37.7 (Ranked 24th)
- Week 15: Steelers, allowing 39.3 (Ranked 28th)
Not sexy. Not shiny. Not a player that comes with a ceiling that will take your breath away. But Pittman has the potential for bigger games, and he’s been much safer than some of his similarly-ranged counterparts.
Takeaway: Easy matchups on the horizon.
🛒 SELL - Calvin Ridley, WR - Jaguars
Hey! Remember, September 10th, 2023?
Yea, well, that’s the last time Calvin Ridley snagged 100 yards and a TD in the same game (prior to Week 11). It’s also one of only two games where Ridley’s seen 10 or more targets.
There’s no denying the fact that Ridley deserves to highlight his skillset like this every week, but his production in Week 11 was his highest-scoring fantasy game of the year.
With Ridley’s five games of 5.5 points or less on the season, I can’t trust his ceiling and I’m too scared to hold on to his floor. I’m selling high.
Takeaway: I won’t be comfortable starting him. Maybe someone else will.
🛒 HOLD - David Montgomery, RB - Lions
In the two games following his return from injury, David Montgomery has rewarded the fantasy managers who held onto him through the mental anguish of watching Jahmyr Gibbs’ breakout with double-digit fantasy points.
Montgomery has even scored relatively similarly to his RB counterpart in Weeks 10 and 11. This might leave those rostering him sighing a breath of relief as they make their plans to sell.
And look, as a self-proclaimed panic trader, this does feel like a good time to take the opportunity to rid your team of the headache.
However, it seems there is enough room for both RBs in this offense now that they’ve earned their roles: Gibbs getting the majority of the route participation, while Monty leads the team in rush share.
So given that the Lions are ranked 3rd in NFL teams for rushing TDs (16), 7th for rushing attempts(297), and 6th in rush yards(1,366), I’m going to take the gamble on Monty remaining a viable fantasy asset.
Takeaway: I’m starting to trust the Lions and their split backfield. Remember, Dan Campbell, sharing is caring.
More Players to Buy, Sell, or Hold for Week 12
Welcome to a Thanksgiving edition of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his losers.
Last week’s parlay came up just short when the Chiefs failed to cover the -2.5 on MNF. The plays went 2-1 and, as a whole, we are now 3-3 – and 14-4 overall on singular props.
What did cash was the Group Chat Ladder bet. Jahmyr Gibbs went over 50 receiving yards AND scored a TD, cashing the +475 SGP portion of the ladder.
You can find a longer recap by following the link at the bottom, but this week, we’re back and have a Thanksgiving parlay AND a Turkey Day ladder bet below.
📉 Jordan Likes: Jake Ferguson under 38.5 receiving yards (-117, BetMGM)
- Play to: -120
- Aggregate projection: 36.9 receiving yards
Despite facing a poor secondary there is no guarantee Dallas will need to throw the ball much. Ferguson has also posted a target share under 15% in two of his last four games and shares targets with Luke Schoonmaker, who has seen his snaps tick up slightly the last two weeks.
Washington has been strong against opposing TEs allowing the 12th fewest yards against to the position.
💘 Geoff Likes: Jordan Love over 33.5 pass attempts (-120, BetMGM)
- Play to: 33.5 (-125)
- Aggregate projection: 34.0 receiving yards
Love has thrown the ball with more regularity of late (40+ passes in three of last four games). The Packers also enter this game potentially down two of their three RBs (Jones, Wilson –questionable) and face a Detroit team that allows just 3.8 yards per carry against.
Seven of the 10 QBs who have faced Detroit this year have thrown the ball 36 or more times.
⚒️ Freedman and LaMarca Like: 49ers -6.5 (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: 6.5 (-120)
With Deebo Samuel in the lineup, the 49ers are now 6-1 ATS with a point differential around +20.0. Seattle also has injuries to their QB, top RB and one of their top WRs.
It may be hard for them to keep pace with the 49ers offensive juggernaut which is first in offensive DVOA after last week.
🤝 Putting it all together: +522, BetMGM
- Jake Ferguson under 38.5 yards, -115
- Jordan Love over 33.5 passing attempts, -125
- 49ers -6.5, -115
📈 Thanksgiving Ladder Bet: Tony Pollard, RB - Cowboys (BetMGM)
- Over 60.5 rush yards (-115) - play to 62.5 (-110)
- Pollard SGP: 80+ rush yards / anytime TD (+360) - play to +340
The Cowboys are -11.0 favorites in this spot and have an RB in Tony Pollard who they’d love to see explode for a big day.
The Commanders’ D-Line has been decimated by trades and allowed 5.92 ypc to Saquon Barkley last week – and two weeks ago allowed 6.93 ypc to the Patriots RB duo (Elliot and Stevenson) who have had miserable years for the most part.
We have Pollard projected for a strong week in our aggregate projections (70.0 rushing yards) and using the same game parlay function on MGM allows us to tap into more of his upside, in case he shows off with one of his signature explosive TD runs.
ANOTHER Thanksgiving Ladder Bet (and more!)
