🧗‍♀️ 2 WRs Climbing The Ranks

It is Week 14 and it is must-win time, y'all. Only one thing left to do...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by King Kong:

• One Game. Two WR Upgrades.
• Rankings Update. D'Onta Foreman ascending...
• Dear Cooter. Call of Doodie.
• Bets from the group chat. A dangerRuss proposition.
• DFS Building Blocks.
• Roster Watch. Top Value Plays.
• Its 12/10. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...

It is the moment many of us have been waiting for. It is time to make those final lineup decisions and kick in the door to the fantasy playoffs.

One of the larger decision points this weekend rests around all of the WR2 and WR3 options we are missing, with five teams on a bye. Terry McLaurin, Chris Olave, Christian Watson, and Michael Pittman — are all on benches, leaving fantasy managers looking for options.

The game between the Vikings and Lions offers us two candidates that are climbing the ranks thanks to great matchups and a top-notch scoring environment.

😎 WR – Adam Thielen

The days of the sure-handed Thielen carrying fantasy teams are long gone, but he lands in a nice spot against the Lions in Week 14 in a game that could go nuclear. The Vikings carry a 25-point team total (7th), and the Lions allow the fifth-most receiving yards per game in non-overtime play at 264 yards.

Detroit has been better over the last five games, with a top-12 (70.4) PFF coverage grade. However, several lesser passing attacks have eclipsed their season yardage average against the Lions in that span.

• Aaron Rodgers: 291 yards (+71 yards vs. his average)
• Justin Fields: 167 (+9)
• Daniel Jones: 341 (+144)

The last time Thielen faced the Lions in Week 4, he finished as the WR22 on nine targets, eight receptions and 72 yards receiving. 

Thielen climbs into the mid-range WR3 conversation.

😎 WR – DJ Chark

Chark returned to a full-time role in Week 12. Over the last two games, he has 36% and 48% of the Lions’ air yards. He only has a 16% target share but leads the team in aDOT at 17.7.

The former second-round WR out of LSU is a great complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who works the underneath and intermediate areas of the field.

The Lions face a Vikings coverage unit that allows 298 yards per game in regulation play – the most in the NFL. Detroit carries the No. 4 team total on the slate.

Chark is a boom-bust WR3 that ranks almost 10 spots ahead of expert consensus.

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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.

📈 Risers

📈 RB – D’Onta Foreman 

The Panthers have been one of the most run-heavy teams since moving on from Matt Rhule after Week 5.

• Trailing by four-plus points: 35% (13th)
• Within three points: 48% (4th)
• Leading by four-plus points: 72% (1st)

Carolina is only 3.5 point underdogs on the road against Seattle, indicating we could see a close game. Foreman has accounted for 61% of Carolina’s rushing attempts since earning a significant role starting in Week 7.

After beginning the week on the injury report due to a foot injury, Foreman is ready to go this weekend.

The Seahawks allow the fourth-most rush yards per game (146) in non-overtime play.

Foreman ranks as my RB16 – six spots ahead of expert consensus this weekend.

📈 WR – Mike Williams

Williams doesn’t carry an injury designation after practicing in full twice to end the week. The veteran WR has three top-15 finishes in seven healthy games, and the Chargers will need to score points this weekend in what could be a shootout atmosphere against the Dolphins on Sunday Night Football.

Miami runs the second-most man coverage (38%), and Williams owns a whopping 40% TPRR against man this season.

Williams is a high-end WR3 that should be in most starting lineups.

📈 WR – Jerry Jeudy 

Jeudy’s route participation was limited to 41% in his return from an ankle injury in Week 13. However, he posted an elite 40% TPRR and was removed from the injury report after a full practice on Friday.

Courtland Sutton is out, and the Broncos could be forced into a pass-first mode early in a matchup against the Chiefs. It isn’t easy to get pumped about playing any Broncos, but less target competition will up the former first-round WR’s chances of coming through for fantasy managers.

Jeudy is a mid-range WR3.

👀 Monitoring

👀 RB – Seattle RBs

Pete Carroll labeled Kenneth Walker III and DeeJay Dallas as game-time decisions despite their inability to practice all week. Carroll is historically optimistic when it comes to injuries (see Chris Carson), and fantasy managers should consider both unlikely to suit up in a late-window tilt.

Travis Homer and Tony Jones Jr. are likely to shoulder the load against the Panthers. Homer is Seattle’s primary passing-down option, but he could also lead the team on early downs in Week 14. Homer’s range of outcomes is wide, but there is a chance he plays a near-every-down role.

Jones doesn’t have the same upside, but he could handle some of the early-down work, so the team doesn’t have to overwork Homer.

Homer is a high-end RB3 with high-end RB2 upside if Walker and Dallas are inactive. In that scenario, Jones moves into low-end RB3 territory.

👀 RB – Leonard Fournette

Fournette landed on the injury report on Thursday due to a sore foot that limited his practice reps. He was downgraded to a DNP on Friday, which puts his Week 14 status in jeopardy and opens the door to an every-down role for Rachaad White.

The Buccaneers have a tough matchup against the 49ers, but the backfield could be in for plenty of targets. San Francisco plays the fifth-most zone coverage (76%), and Tom Brady loves throwing to his RBs against zone.

If Fournette can’t play, White climbs to RB11 despite the tough matchup on paper.

Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Cooter is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com

Dear Cooter, 

Why does every vegetable that is pickled get to retain its original name (e.g., pickled asparagus), except for the cucumber? Children are left in the dark about a pickle not being its own thing, realizing it’s actually just a pickled cucumber, which for me was highly disappointing and cast a negative light on cucumbers.

Just doesn’t seem fair, is all. -@MunderDifflinFF

Dear Scott: Names are fickle, even for a pickle.

This phenomenon is much like planting a flag to lay claim: the first one wins. Cucumbers were the foundational pickled veggie, so they called dibs. It’s the same reason why any other red-haired QB not named Andy Dalton missed their chances on The Red Rifle. It’s the same reason why plenty of WRs can run slant routes, but there can only ever be one Slant Boy. 

I think you’re looking at the pickle jar half-empty here, Scott.

It’s a testament to pickles that they have stand-alone name value. No one confuses them with any other sour snack, and that’s what makes them special. Calvin Johnson is the only Megatron. Tyrann Mathieu is the only Honey Badger. But don’t be confused; names can also haunt you. Just ask Mr. Unlimited. 

Dear Cooterdoodle, 

They say that when your kids grow up, you'll miss the tough early years of your kids being loud, hyperactive, and pooping in measuring cups. Is this true? Also, who is "They"?

Thanks for your time,

@GMenJay

Dear Jay: I think you’ve found your way into the wrong newsletter, but I don’t back down from a challenge. When doodie calls, I’m here to help. So listen closely because I’m writing this in a very hushed voice. (Liam Neeson’s on-the-phone voice, to be exact.)

“They” are the ones who keep us up at night, questioning our waiver wire bids. “They” are the ones who convince us that our trade offers are fair and just, despite what the stats and trade calculators say. “They” are the ones whose doubts creep into our minds at 10 AM Sunday morning, forcing our hands to tinker… over and over again. 

I don’t know who they are. I don’t know what they want. If they are looking for ransom, I can tell you I don’t have any FAAB. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long fantasy football career.

And I can assure you that none of these skills will help you as a parent. 

🎯 Everything you need for EVERY NFL game. You should probably click here.

🤨 Is a star RB in doubt for Sunday? Seems like he will be okay.

🔁 The Baker Mayfield cycle. Checks out.

💀 Interesting Kenny Pickett stat. Do TDs next tho...

🤬 These are the worst kind of free-agent signings. Fantasy double whammies.

🤔 At one time, he was the next big thing. Is that where we are with Herbert?

🎬 It might not be broadway Joe. But this Jet is running the show.

🥈 The second biggest play of the season. How did the Raiders let this happen?

🎢 If this chart were an amusement park ride... It would be called the cliffhanger.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Geoff came up with for Week 14...

😲 Russell Wilson Over 221.5 Yards Passing 

What’s the most dangerous thing you have ever done? Well, the new answer to that this week for me will be to suggest an Over on a Russell Wilson passing yardage prop (in a newsletter that goes out to 300,000 people). Wilson is playing the Chiefs this week, who have allowed 266.8 yards passing against, per game, on the road this year – and just allowed Joe Burrow and the Bengals to throw for 9.0 yards per attempt last week. 

Wilson is also coming off arguably his best game of the season, where he completed 77% of his passes and landed a 102.3 passer rating against Baltimore. He’ll also have rookie TE Greg Dulcich to help us get there, who popped for 86 yards on six catches last week and is trending with a solid 12.6 aDOT on the year. 

Look, it’s lonely out here on Wilson island, but the Fantasy Life projections back me up with Wilson going over 230 yards. Expect a decent game from the former Seahawk, and don’t be afraid to back his over in Week 14.

👆 D’Andre Swift Over 24.5 Receiving Yards 

OK, now that the lone-wolf play is out of the way, let’s find something more of us can agree on. The Fantasy Life betting crew is big on the Lions this week, with Matt Lamarca and Eliot Crist backing them to cover in the Fantasy Life Game Hub. 

I like the Lions this week as well, and part of the appeal is the return to health of D'Andre Swift, who took his second-biggest workload of the year last week against the Jaguars. Swift’s low snap count of late has been frustrating, but he’s seen solid usage as a receiver over the last three weeks. 

Target per route run rates over the past month

37% - D'Andre Swift
34% - Davante Adams
32% - Amon-Ra St. Brown
31% - Austin Ekeler, Terry McLaurin
30% - CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, Chris Godwin
28% - Rhamondre Stevenson
27% - DK Metcalf, Nico Collins

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23)
Dec 5, 2022

Swift has the fourth-highest RB receiving projection on Fantasy Life and faces a Vikings defense that doesn’t defend the pass well. Minnesota allows the third-most receiving yards to opposing RBs.

Look for Swift to continue to build on last week's usage and for his explosive playmaking ability to push him over his receiving yardage prop.

JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!

💰 Goff + ARSB + Chark + Hockenson

• Cost: $22.8K DK // $26.9k FD

📓 Story

"This game plays out the way the public expects it to play out"

📓  Why it works

This game is going to be stacked in a lot of different ways, and even this stack won't "set you on a clear path to first place" if it hits.

But this particular combination of players makes just as much sense as any other, and it's likely to be lower-rostered than many of the other ways this game could be built (Swift, Thielen, Jefferson, etc.). If the touchdowns come through the air for the Lions and Hockenson scores once or twice for Minnesota, this setup would separate from the field, allowing you to play a chalky game and still gain a significant edge when it hits.

📓 How it works

Because this building block doesn't necessarily "separate from the field" if it hits (as noted already: it should put you ahead of a lot of rosters if it hits, but you'll still be competing against other rosters that have a similar setup, especially in large-field play), I would look to pull one or two additional levers on this roster: rostering a high-upside piece that the field is overlooking, or finding some leverage off a popular piece, etc.

💰 Watson + DPJ + Njoku + Mixon

• Cost: $22.1K DK // $27.2k FD

📓 Story

"This game is higher-scoring than the Over/Under implies"

📓 Why it works

No one is playing Watson this week. No one, it seems, is considering a scenario in which Watson looks a whole lot better in his second game than he did in his first.

This is the type of stack that could have people saying in retrospect, "How did I not think of that one?" — and it should come with near-zero ownership in most tourneys.

📓 How it works

You could play whatever chalk you wanted on the rest of this roster, as A) people aren't playing Watson, and B) the Watson stack "hitting" would likely mean it's hitting for a high enough score to be a genuine separator.

This building block is obviously a bet on A) Watson looking a lot more like himself in his second game back, and B) this game as a whole becoming the "had to have it" spot; but that's not a lengthy list of "things that need to go right," and if you get those things right, you'll have pretty clear sailing to the tops of the leaderboards.

You could add any Bengals piece to this stack (and could also mix and match the way you play the Browns' side), but I wanted to add Mixon to this one, as this tells a story of this game not only being high-scoring but of Watson also having a path to significantly outscoring his more popular counterpart (if Mixon is scoring the touchdowns, this lowers the chances of Burrow popping for a huge game, which increases the value of a big game from Watson).

Playing the best players is easy enough, but value is where it's at in DFS. Every other week Alex from Roster Watch will be dropping by the Fantasy Life offices to give you his top DFS values of the week. 

The way the Week 14 DFS slate is stacking up, we don't have an abundance of value plays. Backfield injuries may open up some options, but there is also a QB offering salary relief and sneaky upside.

Let’s dive in.

🦁 Jared Goff 

• $5600 on DraftKings

Goff typically isn't a world-beater, but being in the same pricing tier as backups like Mike White and Tyler Huntley feels like an error.

High total games are in short supply, and Detroit is in one of two 50+ point total games in a divisional rematch against the Vikings.

Minnesota offers the sixth-best QB matchup per the Week 14 RosterWatch Matchup Tool, and the Vikings are almost exclusively a zone-coverage unit per PlayerProfiler.com.

Goff has the best accuracy rating versus zone coverage among all multi-game starters on the Week 14 main slate (8.5). He also has the second-best completion percentage (76.7%) against zone coverage, which drops all the way to 59.6% against man.

Goff is coming off his 3rd-best fantasy performance this season in Week 13 (24.6 DK points), and the veteran QB's surrounding firepower has begun to come back online for the stretch run.

RB D'Andre Swift appears healthy, WR DJ Chark is stretching out defenses (17.7 ADOT) and dynamic first-round pick WR Jameson Williams will look to build on his limited snaps from last week. 

Multiple factors aligning at the right time could put Goff in his sweet spot this weekend.