Sometimes in life, being the least terrible option is good enough…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Hugo Boss:
- MVP: Is anyone worthy?
- Adjusted Scores: Bills still “undefeated”…
- Early Lines: NFC Championship preview?
- Squares vs. Sharps: The public continues to dominate.
- MNF: The world needs a primetime NFC North matchup.
- It’s 11/27: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
Week 12 is in the books, so we’re two-thirds of the way through the NFL regular season (minus SNF and MNF; I’m writing this on Sunday at 8:45 pm ET).
As we enter the home stretch, here are five items that stand out to me about the 2023 NFL season so far.
⬇️ Scoring Is DOWN
I discussed this in-depth in the Week 10 Sunday Betting Life Newsletter, but — to summarize — this year has been the most profitable for under bettors for at least the past 20 seasons.
Through 12 weeks, the under is 104-73-1 (12.2% ROI, per Action Network).
Defenses are playing more two-high shells. QBs are bad and injured. Playcallers are unimaginative and conservatively opting for more FGs. And the weather hasn’t been friendly.
Long gone are the point-happy pandemic days of 2020.
👑 Who’s MVP?
Normally by Week 13, there are 2-4 MVP candidates who all feel worthy of the award, and then out of that group the winner is usually the guy whose team has the best record.
This year, all the top MVP candidates have notable flaws: Jalen Hurts has statistically regressed from last year. Lamar Jackson lacks the raw production. Patrick Mahomes is stuck in neutral. Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott have lost to the best teams they’ve played.
Someone will likely emerge as a deserving recipient, but right now the top candidates are frontrunners by default.
⬆️ Good Year for Favorites
Since 2003, underdogs have been the better bet, going 2,637-2,537-144 ATS (-0.8% ROI) in the regular season.
This year, though, favorites are in the green: 92-81-5 ATS (1.3% ROI).
And much of this profitability has been driven by the performance of the best teams in the league when laying points.
- Cowboys: 8-1 ATS (69.5% ROI)
- Jaguars: 6-1 ATS (63.4% ROI)
- Dolphins: 6-1 ATS (62.8% ROI)
- Eagles: 7-2-1 ATS (42.8% ROI)
- Chiefs: 7-4 ATS (22.3% ROI)
Normally sports betting isn’t as simple as “bet the best teams against worse teams” — but this year… maybe it has been?
Coincidentally, this hasn’t been a good season for many sharp bettors.
💩 Patriots Are BAD
The Patriots are a league-worst 2-9 ATS (-65.4% ROI). They’re last in the AFC with a -100 point differential. They just lost to the Giants, who entered the week No. 32 in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings (-11.1).
“Terrible” might be too kind of a word to describe QBs Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe.
And HC Bill Belichick looks like a man time forgot.
If the Patriots don’t show marked improvement over the next six weeks, I’d be surprised if Belichick returned to the team next year.
💪 Best Division in Football?
Entering the year, I thought the AFC North would be the best division in football with all four teams having a real shot to make the postseason.
The journey hasn’t been straightforward: The Bengals and Browns are without QBs Joe Burrow (wrist, IR) and Deshaun Watson (shoulder, IR), and the Steelers recently fired OC Matt Canada.
Even so, when we look at non-divisional records for the entire league, the AFC North is indeed No. 1 at 16-9-1 ATS (21.2% ROI).
Currently, the Ravens (8-3), Steelers (7-4), and Browns (7-4) are all slated to make the postseason, and the Bengals were in the playoff race before Burrow’s injury.
It’s not close: The AFC North is the league’s best division.
Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points (a sports analytics newsletter), and each week he reviews every game and provides his “adjusted scores” based on the underlying production data. Here is one excerpt from his advanced game reviews for Week 12.
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).
📊 Adjusted Scores Table
- “Pass”: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)
- “Success”: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score
- “H & A”: Home or away team
🦅 Eagles vs. Bills
- Final Score: 37-34
- Adjusted Score: 26-29
The Bills have done it again and moved their “adjusted” record to 12-0 yet suffered another actual loss to move to 6-6. I think it’s fairly easy to see how the Bills deserved to win this one, even by traditional stats. They outgained the Eagles by 127 yards, ran 27 more plays, and were even +1 in turnover differential. The Bills were able to combine better play-by-play success rate with a higher rate of efficiency yet still lost the game.
You don’t often see a team that converts 14 first downs when reaching third down (13-22 on third, 1-1 on fourth) lose the game. But the Bills somehow did it.
What’s funny is that the optics of Josh Allen’s interception total this year had been way worse than the impact, with several qualifying as arm punts and not costing the Bills any expected points. His interception against the Eagles was, in fact, very costly at 5.0 expected points and 22.4% win probability lost, the biggest impact play for both metrics. Jalen Hurts had bigger combined mistakes, an interception and fumble that cost the Eagles a combined 8.8 expected points.
This game was really won through penalties and special teams, specifically the kicking game. Tyler Bass had a missed field goal and another blocked (-7.3 EPA), while Jake Elliott nailed a 59-yarder with less than 30 seconds to go to tie the game (+2.2 EPA). The Bills were called for 11 penalties for 80 yards, the Eagles four for 30.
The Eagles also got a weirdly beneficial mix of only punts and touchdowns outside of the final regulation field goal. They didn’t waste many positive plays on drives that came away without points, which is something that won’t happen very often.
Despite the big turnover, Allen still posted strong MVP-type numbers, including an absurd 15.2 EPA added on eight designed runs and scrambles. Four of his five scrambles converted long first downs, three coming on 3rd & 10 or 3rd & 9. His designed runs included two touchdowns and a conversion on 3rd & 4. Allen might be the most deserving quarterback for MVP by the numbers, at least every number but wins.
🤠 Texans vs. Jaguars
- Final Score: 21-24
- Adjusted Score: 21-23
A lot of people had this game circled on the calendar with two of the most promising young QBs in the NFL facing off, playing for two franchises you don’t normally associate with QB hope. Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud didn’t disappoint, although the latter didn’t find nearly the same level of sustained success dropping back to pass.
Lawrence and the Jags posted an outstanding 94th percentile dropback efficiency (+0.46 EPA per play) at an equally impressive 58% success rate. This was despite the most costly play of the game coming in the form of an interception targeting Evan Engram (-6.3 EPA), although there looked to be an uncalled hold on the play. Regardless of the circumstances, the one downside of Lawrence’s games has been situational mistakes, so a 2nd & 1 interception at midfield certainly fits the bill.
While poorly timed mistakes might be a problem for Lawrence, he more than made up for his interception in this game with a common formula of sack avoidance (none taken) and big throws (+25 passing EPA). He also added a little rushing juice, converting a TD on goal line in this game.
Stroud’s box score of 300-plus yards, two touchdowns and zero picks will look outstanding to some, but digging further into the advanced stats shows this as a good-not-great performance. Stroud took four sacks (-6.3 EPA), and he only converted 2-of-8 third downs with more than four yards to go, suppressing his EPA value.
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👍 Best Bet: 76ers (-4.5) vs. Lakers (-110; DraftKings)
It’s been no James Harden, no problem for the 76ers this season. They’re 11-5 and third in the league in Net Rating, outscoring their opponents by an average of 6.5 points per 100 possessions.
Meanwhile, the Lakers continue to flounder. They’re middle of the pack in the Western Conference standings and in Net Rating, despite playing a relatively soft schedule. I have no problem laying the points with Philly at home.
Finding early betting value — and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible — is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor. Matt LaMarca dives into a few bets to consider attacking early in the week.
⛏️ 49ers (+1.0) at Eagles
- Current Line: 49ers +1.0 (-110; FanDuel)
- Opening Line: 49ers +2.5
- Target Range: 49ers -2.5 or better
This will be billed as a potential NFC Championship game preview, and that may wind up being the case. However, that does not mean that these two teams are on equal footing.
Even though the 49ers have the worse record, they are clearly the superior team.
Philadelphia has been surviving for weeks. They were outgained by 98 yards by the Commanders in Week 8, 114 yards by the Cowboys in Week 9, and 98 yards by the Chiefs in Week 11. Somehow, the Eagles managed to win all three of those contests.
The gap was even wider in Week 12. The Bills by 127 yards, won the turnover battle, and had roughly 14 additional minutes of possession. Still, the Eagles managed to win the game.
That is not a sustainable formula for success at the NFL level. You can’t rely on your opponents to drop passes – looking at you, Kansas City – or miss field goals every single week. If the Eagles really want to be considered an elite team, they occasionally need to put the gas pedal down and blow someone out.
That has not been an issue for San Francisco. Unlike the Eagles – who had a 6.5-3.5 expected record entering Week 12 – the 49ers have dispatched of their competition all season. Each of their eight wins has come by at least a touchdown, and if not for a meaningless field goal from the Rams in Week 2, that number would be 10. Their expected record sits at 8.9-2.1, and remember that all of their losses came with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams out or limited.
When this team has been at full strength this season, they’ve had no equal. They demolished the Cowboys by 32 points. They beat the Jaguars by 31 points in Jacksonville and the Seahawks by 18 points in Seattle. Why should it be any different vs. the Eagles?
Add in the fact that the 49ers have a clear rest advantage in this spot, and I think the wrong team is favored. I personally make the 49ers closer to -2.0 even on the road, so locking them in as underdogs is a no-brainer.
👍 He chose… wisely? Right or wrong, this bettor’s timing on Thanksgiving was impeccable.
🤷 Can’t buy a break. This QB was instrumental in having the OT rules changed. This weekend he moved to 0-6 in OT games.
🤝 If this WR scores, you score. Best TD bet for MNF.
🐯 He’s back. Tiger Woods is playing golf this week! And no one should be more excited than the sportsbooks…
🤢 I thought this was supposed to be the normal side. The AFC playoff picture is gross.
🥶The 30-year rule. This once proud AFC powerhouse did something they (and no other team) had accomplished for 30 years.
🎶 It’s hip to be square. The “public” continued to smash in Week 12.
🏆 A record to watch for on MNF. Favorites have never run this well — Vikings you’re up…
🚨 Are you ready for a Monday night party? With bets!! Our FREE bet tracker is up +23.4 units over the last 30 days and has you covered.
Monday Night Football features the Bears at Vikings, and Geoff Ulrich is here to highlight some of his favorite bets for the game…
The Bears may be out of the playoff hunt but the handful of games they have left will be important in the evaluation of Justin Fields as their (potential) QB of the future.
For the 6-5 Vikings, the loss by Detroit over Thanksgiving has opened up an opportunity for them to get back in the division title race — and they will face Detroit twice down the stretch (Week 16 and 18).
So can Minnesota hold off the Bears? Or will Fields and DJ Moore pull a Walter White and Jessie Pinkman and cook up something special on the road?
Read below as we have best bets, props, and a nice ladder bet (up to +750) to end off Week 12.
🐻 Best Bet: Bears +3.0 (-115; BetMGM)
- Play to: Bears +3.0 (-120)
The Bears have been far more competitive of late with Fields under center. In the last three games he’s started and finished they’ve gone 2-1 ATS with the only non-cover being Week 4 against Denver – a game they were up 28-0 and lost 31-28.
Chicago has been stellar at guarding against the run (3.4 ypc) and should be able to contain Joshua Dobbs to an extent. Dobbs has been solid as a passer but only managed 6.9 yards per attempt against Denver and faces an emerging Bears secondary – who was dominant against Jared Goff at times last week.
I grabbed the Bears at +3.5 earlier in the week in our FREE bet tracker, and even at +3.0 the Bears are still enticing – assuming the Vikings are without Justin Jefferson, who is questionable and, as of writing, unlikely to play.
⬇️ Joshua Dobbs Under 36.5 rushing yards (-110; DraftKings)
- Bet To: Under 35.5 (-110)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 29.0
This one was put in the Free Fantasy Life bet tracker by our own Matthew Freedman earlier in the week. Dobbs is projected for just 29.0 rush yards in our aggregate projections and faces a Bears defense that has allowed the fourth fewest rush yards to his position this season.
Chicago should be keyed in on Dobbs this week, as well, especially if Justin Jefferson can’t go. They have solid corners they can leave in man, if they have to, and likely understand by this point that Dobbs is far more dangerous as a runner than a passer.
🚀 Ladder Bet: DJ Moore Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
- 80+ (+175)
- 100+ (+360)
- 120+ (+750)
This bet requires little to no explanation. The Vikings are a solid funnel to the pass defense. They don’t allow as many big plays in the secondary as other weaker pass coverages do but, on the season, they have allowed 31 passing plays of 20+ yards against (compared to just 13 explosive rushing plays).
Moore has been targeted relentlessly with Fields healthy this season seeing target shares of 43%, 45% and 30% in the last three games Fields has started and finished. And in those games, he’s gone for 90+ yards on every occasion. You could play conservative and just take an over on Moore’s 61.5 receiving total but with solid odds at the higher ranges, he’s also an ideal ladder candidate to end with in Week 12.
