Hey, I’m trying to come up with a nickname for the 2023 NFL MVP. Can you help me think of a super masculine word that rhymes with “Brock”?
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Unabated:
- MVP: “Wait, it’s Brock?” “Always has been.”
- Adjusted Scores: Browns, Bears, someone had to win…
- Early Lines: “Dolla, dolla Bills y’all.”
- Tommy DeVito: Suddenly too good for pizza.
- MNF: Mariota. Lock. Maybe???
- It’s 12/18: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
As I’m writing this, SNF is about to kick off. What a great day of football! — at least for those of us holding Brock Purdy MVP tickets…
Here’s a pick-six of Week 15 tidbits.
🌧️ Weather Mattered
Last week, much was made of weather, which had little impact. This week, the weather mattered.
On Sunday morning, four games were forecast for winds of 20+ mph or rain plus winds of 10+ mph. The under in these games went 4-0 (90.9% ROI, per Action Network) and covered by 7.9 points.
There’s weather, and then there’s weather.
🐬 Dolphins Dominate
In the lookahead market, the Dolphins at one point were -14 over the Jets at a couple of sportsbooks.
After their embarrassing MNF loss to the Titans, they dropped to -8.5, and the market bet them down to -7 on Sunday.
It didn’t matter: They beat the Jets 30-0.
The Dolphins were No. 4 (+6.65) in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings entering Week 15. Depending on how SNF goes, they could be No. 2 next week.
📉 RIP MVP Tyreek Hill
I have a rule. If you’re a longshot non-QB MVP candidate who misses a game and your team wins by 30 points, you’re not MVP.
And based on what 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey did in Week 15 (187 yards, three TDs), Hill might have his work cut out for him to win Offensive Player of the Year.
👑 MVP Brock Purdy
Purdy entered Week 15 No. 1 in AY/A (10.4), composite EPA + CPOE (0.215, per RBs Don’t Matter), and QBR (74.7, per ESPN).
And then he passed for 242 yards and four TDs on just 25 attempts in a 45-29 win.
Right now, he’s -150 to win MVP (DraftKings), and I think that line is fair.
MVP is his to lose.
By the way, in case you find this relevant, I have a 50-1 MVP ticket on Purdy from the offseason logged in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
🎲 Fortune Favors the Favorites
Last week was the most profitable one this season for underdogs. They went 10-4-1 ATS (34.4% ROI).
This week, though, favorites stormed back and went 9-3-2 ATS (36.4% ROI).
For the season, favorites have beaten the vig: 114-100-8 ATS (1.5% ROI).
It’s one of those years.
✈️ Aaron Rodgers: Comeback Player of the Year?
In the Week 10 Thursday Betting Life Newsletter, we looked at the possibility of Rodgers returning this season and specifically called out 1) Week 16 (Christmas Eve) as his likely target date and 2) his +3000 odds in the CPOY market.
His CPOY odds are currently +700 (DraftKings), and he’s likely to be medically cleared to play this week. The Jets are officially out of playoff contention, so Rodgers might opt not to play, and if he plays he’s no lock to win CPOY.
But he’s the only real candidate who can challenge Damar Hamlin (-700).
I have Rodgers as a +4.6 upgrade on Zach Wilson.
Check Out Our QB ATS Value Chart!
Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points, and each week he provides his “adjusted scores” for every game based on the underlying production data. Here is an excerpt from his advanced game reviews for Week 15.
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).
📊 Adjusted Scores Table
- “Pass”: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)
- “Success”: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score
- “H & A”: Home or away team
🐦 Cardinals vs. 49ers
- Final Score: 29-45
- Adjusted Score: 17-30
This 49ers offensive is hitting levels of insanity in the late season. The worst offensive efficiency (EPA per play) they’ve had since Week 10 was still in the 78th percentile, and now half their offensive performances on the season have been at the 90th percentile or better, with only two coming in below the 50th percentile. Despite the gaudy rushing TD numbers for Christian McCaffrey (13), their passing game has been the driving force leading to overall efficiency, though at lower volume (bottom-seven pass rate versus expectation).
This week was no different, with the 49ers hitting the 99th percentile in EPA per play and a 54.7% success rate. And Brock Purdy only needed to drop back to pass 24 times to get an easy victory.
The 49ers defense contributed heavily to their early lead, picking off a Kyler Murray pass and taking it over the half field for a score. They forced another turnover later but surprisingly gave up a hefty 436 total yards at 6.1 yards per play.
McCaffrey had 115 yards rushing on only 18 carries (+3.6 EPA) and also added five catches for 72 yards and two TDs on five targets (+5.2 EPA). It will be interesting to see if McCaffrey’s growing counting stats in this offense cause a split vote with Purdy among those looking at the 49ers for the MVP award.
Purdy had as close to a perfect efficiency game as possible, gaining nearly three-quarters of a point with every dropback, avoiding turnovers and not taking any sacks. It’s the 49ers’ first-round bye to lose at this point, with an 82% chance to get the No. 1 seed by my numbers. If they can beat the Ravens next week that number will rise well above 90%.
Kyler Murray played okay outside of the two killer mistakes, losing 12.7 expected points on interceptions. At 3-11, the Cardinals are currently slotted for the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL draft, but they could theoretically get to No. 1 with three weeks remaining. They’ll need to lose out and have the Patriots win one game to get the No. 2 pick, which might lead to a QB change next season.
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🐺 Timberwolves (-1.5) at Heat (-110, BetMGM)
The Timberwolves are for real, folks. They’re third in Net Rating, trailing only the 76ers and Celtics, and boast the best defense in the league. Karl-Anthony Towns is back to being a hyper-efficient scoring big man, while Anthony Edwards continues to progress.
Meanwhile, the Heat are without two key contributors in Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, leaving Jimmy Butler to do most of the heavy lifting. I’m fine with laying the points with Minnesota.
Finding early betting value — and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible — is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor. Matt LaMarca dives into a few bets to consider attacking early in the week.
🦬 Bills (-13.5) at Chargers
- Current Line: Bills -13.5 (-110; FanDuel)
- Target Range: Bills -13.5 or better
Has there ever been a more obvious “sell high” spot than the Bills on the road against the Chargers? Buffalo is coming off back-to-back season-saving wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys, putting them right back in the thick of the crowded AFC Wild Card hunt.
Conversely, the Chargers are coming off one of the most humiliating losses in recent memory. They surrendered 63 points to the equally hapless Raiders, with the team racking up five turnovers in a 42-point defeat.
Is Easton Stick going to look that hopeless in his second career start? I don’t think so. He wasn’t that terrible when he was able to throw — he averaged 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt, albeit with a lot of work coming in garbage time — and the team won’t lose four fumbles every week.
Additionally, teams coming off losses of at least 35 points are 75-44-6 ATS dating back to 2005.
Add it all up, and this feels like the perfect storm to buy low on the Chargers and sell high on the Bills.
So, naturally, I’m going in the opposite direction.
I still think the Bills are one of the five best teams in football. Now that they’ve started to play like it, I’m not in a rush to jump off board.
It’s not like this game is one that the Bills can afford to overlook, either. Buffalo would still be out of the playoffs if they started today, so they must treat every game like a must-win.
This number has already moved to -14 at some locations, so I am making sure to lock in the -13.5 early. Even if the line moves against us — and I could see the sharps liking the Chargers — it’s not the end of the world.
The difference between -13.5 and -14 is significantly more important than the difference between -13.5 and -12.
⛏️ Steelers ML (+116) vs. Bengals
- Current Line: Steelers ML (+116; FanDuel)
- Target Range: Steelers +105 or better
Let’s talk about another team that has been fortunate recently — the Bengals. Jake Browning‘s metrics have been fantastic since taking over for Joe Burrow, but much of it has been done with smoke and mirrors. He’s relying heavily on his receivers to do most of the work, be it with yards after the catch or by winning 50/50 balls.
They’re now riding a three-game winning streak, but two of those wins have come in overtime. The fact that they’ve kept their season alive is a great story, but it’s the type of thing that leads to becoming overvalued by the public.
On the other side, the Steelers are coming off an embarrassing loss vs. the Colts. Mitch Trubisky has looked awful in relief of Kenny Pickett, but the good news is that Pickett could be back in the lineup vs. the Bengals.
This is also an outstanding situational spot for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin has been an extremely profitable coach to back as a home underdog, going 16-10 straight up. That’s good for a +56.5% return on investment.
Tomlin has also historically been a great coach to back off a loss, going 55-41-0 ATS during the regular season.
I’ve argued that the Steelers have been overvalued for much of the season, but I disagree with them being home underdogs vs. Cincinnati. Let’s take advantage before the market adjusts.
🚀 Backup QB or not, this WR is set to dominate. Best TD bet for MNF.
🏆 Purdy for MVP? The man himself weighs in.
🤬 Pass-rushing against Lamar Jackson seems like the sixth circle of hell. The former MVP makes one of the plays of his career on Sunday Night Football.
🪓 It’s called “survivor,” not “chopper,” right? In an all-or-nothing world, this guy got nothing.
🍕 You either get benched or start long enough to see yourself become the villain: The hometown hero no longer.
💪 AFC vs. NFC: Maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe, probably not — yes.
📺 Need more bets for MNF? Join us for our best bets before kickoff!
For Monday Night Football, the Eagles travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks in a matchup between QBs Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith… or maybe Marcus Mariota and Drew Lock? Hopefully not. Here are some of Geoff Ulrich’s favorite bets for the game…
👍 Seahawks +3.0 (-110, BetMGM)
- Bet to: Seahawks +3.0 -120
The Eagles have the superior record but there is nothing on paper that suggests there is much separating these teams. The Eagles rush defense has fallen off significantly and they now rank 27th in EPA per play vs the run (per RBSDM.com).
The Seahawks rush defense isn’t any better but they do have a talented secondary that gave Brock Purdy issues at times (two INTs in two games against the 49ers). Jalen Hurts for his career has also been a much better target to bet against when he’s on the road. The Eagles starter is just 10-15-1 ATS away from Philadelphia and is also 6-8 ATS after a loss (per The Action Network).
Trends aside, I like this spot for the Seahawks offense, which has elite inside-outside WRs in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett, players who can hurt this short-handed Eagles secondary in multiple ways. Waiting on the Seattle QB news means you could end up getting a better number (again, I expect you MIGHT see this rise to 3.5 or 4.0 if Drew Lock starts) but even at +3.0 I’d side with the home Seahawks, who are playing for their season tonight.
⬆️ Kenneth Gainwell Over 13.5 Rush Yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Bet to: 14.5 (-105)
- Projection: 17.6
Gainwell has had trouble getting snaps, but his efficiency has been solid all season. The Eagles backup has averaged 5.7 yards per carry this year and will be facing off against a Seahawks rush defense that is 30th in EPA per play against the rush and a unit that just got smoked by Christian McCaffrey.
The Eagles are still a great rushing offense and may be looking for ways to inject more explosiveness given that starter D’Andre Swift has averaged just 3.05 yards per carry over the past two games.
I wouldn’t expect an outright mutiny, but seeing Gainwell finally get in the 6-8 carry range in this game wouldn’t be shocking. He’s a solid over target for MNF.
🤝 Same-Game Parlay: +1150, BetMGM
- Over 45.5
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 50+ receiving yards
- Kenneth Gainwell 15+ rushing yards
I like the over in this game. The Seahawks defense has faced some elite offenses of late but they also allowed 26 points to the Commanders and 27 points to the Panthers, while at home, this season.
After that, I like doubling down on rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba and including him to go over 50 yards receiving and find the endzone in this spot. He nearly accomplished this feat against Dallas in Week 13 and has a far better matchup for Week 15. Adding in the Gainwell rushing prop at 15+ yards gets us to a +1150 four-way parlay that correlates very nicely, given we’re using an anytime TD prop and an over on the total.
