🎯 3 Backfields To Target (Sneaky Adds!)

Final Destination 2023: Fantasy Edition…

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Mojo Fantasy:

• 3 backfields in flux
• Buy-Low/Sell-High candidates: Bye Alvin Kamara?
• Will Austin Ekeler return this week?
• Buy, Sell, Hold: RB edition…
• It’s 10/11. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

Yesterday was one of the worst days for injuries in recent memory.

But the season marches on, as do our fantasy matchups.

Here are three backfields we must closely monitor over the coming weeks in the wake of key injuries…

🚑️ Dolphins: De’Von Achane is out for multiple weeks

Raheem Mostert obviously gets a boost here, but you were already starting him every week.

The two interesting names to target with Achane on ice are Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed.

💨 PRIORITY: Jeff Wilson Jr.

Wilson Jr. (hip) is the premiere Week 6 waiver add as the team is expected to open the window for his return to practice this week.

Not only do we have very clear evidence that the Dolphins backfield can produce boatloads of fantasy points, but we also know Mike McDaniel loves Wilson after trading a fifth-round pick for him last year.

He scored a TD in his first three games with the Dolphins, posting scores of 14.7, 21.3, and 11.7 fantasy points, so there’s no reason to think he can’t hit the ground running again.

Here’s what Chris Allen had to say about Wilson in his waiver column:

“Out of all rushers with 100 or more carries, Jeff Wilson ranked 8th in explosive play rate. He generated big plays at a higher rate than Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Aaron Jones. Plus, HC Mike McDaniel didn't limit Wilson's usage to the ground game alone.”

👜 STASH: Salvon Ahmed, Chris Books Jr.

🤔 Cardinals: James Conner is out for at least 4 weeks

The Cardinals placed Conner on IR after he injured his knee Sunday, which means he’ll be out a minimum of four weeks.

Surprise pass-catching specialist Emari Demercado and Keaontay Ingram are the next men up in the backfield.

💨 PRIORITY: Emari Demercado

Demercado had already carved out a role in passing situations, seeing his route participation increase each of the previous three weeks (28%, 38%, and 67%).

Considering all of the projected negative game scripts for the Cardinals on tap, Demercado should offer some solid value in PPR leagues.

👜 STASH: Keaontay Ingram

The Cardinals recently signed Tony Jones Jr., but Ingram (neck injury) is the more intriguing long-term stash here.

The truth, however, is that this backfield likely won’t yield enough fantasy production when split across multiple backs. Other than Demercado, I’d prefer to take stabs on the Dolphins’ backs.

🚑️ Bears: Khalil Herbert is out for multiple weeks

This injury occurred on Thursday Night Football, but it’s worth mentioning again here because of the opportunity in this backfield.

Herbert is expected to miss anywhere from 2-3 weeks with the high ankle sprain, which means Roschon Johnson and D’Onta Foreman need to be rostered everywhere.

💨 PRIORITY: Roschon Johnson

Roschon is in the concussion protocol right now, but has a chance to play in Week 6 thanks to the extra rest time this week for the Bears.

The rookie’s usage was slightly concerning the previous weeks as Herbert commanded more of the touches, but there’s no reason to think he won’t be the lead back vs. the Vikings if he’s active.

As Chris noted, the rookie was more efficient than Herbert with an impressive 0.07 EPA per rush.

👜 STASH: D’Onta Foreman

Foreman has been inactive this season because he doesn’t contribute on special teams, but he’s a very competent back who could put up fantasy points in the interim. He needs to be stashed in case Johnson doesn’t clear the protocol.

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Fantasy football trades can make or break friendships just as easily as they can swing the balance of power in leagues of all shapes and sizes. Today’s goal: Ian determines the best buy-low and sell-high candidates after five weeks of action. As always: It’s a great day to be great…

📈 SELL HIGH: Alvin Kamara, RB - Saints

Yes, Kamara has ripped off PPR RB9 and RB7 finishes over the last two weeks.

Also yes, Kamara’s per-touch efficiency has actually gotten worse compared to his already down 2022 numbers.

• Yards per carry: 
  • 2022: 4.0
  • 2023: 4.0
• Yards after contact per carry: 
  • 2022: 2.7
  • 2023: 2.5
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 
  • 2022: 0.15
  • 2023: 0
• Yards per reception:
  • 2022: 8.6
  • 2023: 3.1
• Yards per route run:
  • 2022: 1.66
  • 2023: 1.25

Ultimately, the porous efficiency hasn’t mattered, as Kamara found the end zone in Week 5 and racked up an absurd 13 receptions (for 33 yards, lol) in Week 4 with Derek Carr playing through the pain of an injured throwing shoulder.

Don’t get it twisted, Kamara currently possesses great utilization and figures to continue leading the backfield as long as he can stay healthy.

The question is whether or not Kamara will keep THIS sort of stranglehold on the overall usage:

• Once highly-paid early-down grinder Jamaal Williams (hamstring) returns to the equation.
• If rookie Kendre Miller continues to impress with his touches. Overall, Miller leads all Saints RBs in yards after contact per carry (3.1) and yards per route run (2.64).

Kamara is hardly a spring chicken at this point (28) and also isn’t exactly inside the world’s greatest offensive attack (22nd in PPG, 21st in EPA per play, 29th in yards per play).

He’s been traded straight-up in Yahoo leagues for Puka Nacua and Ja’Marr Chase (lol) in addition to returning Mike Evans/Kenneth Walker and Jaylen Waddle/Rachaad White packages – I’m a fan of anything close to these returns.

📉 BUY LOW: Joe Mixon, RB - Bengals

Mixon has worked as virtually the same guy in 2023 that he was in 2022 on the ground:

• Yards per carry:
  • 2022: 3.9
  • 2023: 3.9
• Yards after contact per carry:
  • 2022: 2.6
  • 2023: 2.4
• Missed tackles forced per carry:
  • 2022: 0.11
  • 2023: 0.13

Those are all not great numbers! But guess what?

Mixon turned in an RB6 finish in PPR points per game last season while ranking as the RB2 in expected PPR points per game with those numbers.

Even if you want to be one of “those people” who like to remove a player’s best game and only focus on the bad, Mixon still would have finished as the RB12 on a per-game basis without his five-TD performance in 2022.

While Mixon is “just” the RB11 in expected PPR points per game this season, this could be on the verge of changing in a hurry considering just how much healthier Joe Burrow (calf) looked in Week 5. After all, operating as the workhorse RB in the league’s seventh-ranked scoring offense (2022) is quite a bit different from the 27th-ranked scoring offense (2023).

The workhorse RB part of that equation is the important piece here. Mixon is one of just seven RBs with a snap rate of at least 75% this season:

Recent Yahoo trades involving Mixon have seen him go for guys like Deandre Hopkins, Najee Harris and Jordan Addison.

I’m a fan of the Mixon side in all three of these deals, due to the reality that his usage numbers are as good as anyone inside of an offense that (finally) appears to be ascending back to the sort of heights we thought were assuredly on the table just a short five weeks ago.

MORE buy-low and sell-high candidate

🚨 TRADE! The Rams ship a WR to the Falcons.

😿 Would you like to listen to Patriots fans meltdown? I thought you would.

🚑 Bad news confirmed for the Colts. It’s Minshew time for the next month.

📺 You lost Justin Jefferson and De’Von Achane, what now?! Don’t panic, you’re in good hands.

📊 Fantasy football strength of schedule. Good resource here.

🍺 Run, don’t walk, to acquire these breakout candidates. It’s Miller time.

🤝 The Jets are trying to trade a WR. If only they could get a QB in return.

🤠 Matthew McConaughey’s message to fantasy managers. That’s comforting.

😆 J.K. Dobbins rehabbing with Aaron Rodgers. But only one of them is working.

🤦 Jerry Jones doesn’t care about your fantasy team. C’mon Jerry, get real.

Week 5 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…

🛒BUY

📈 Tyjae Spears, RB - Titans

To be clear, this is not an Anti-Derrick Henry message. Once a goat, always a goat. However, we might be witnessing a changing of the guards over in Tennessee.

I’ve been telling you to keep an eye on Spears these last few weeks and it’s officially time to get him before it’s too late. Think Breece Hall prior to Week 5 (more on that below).

In a landscape where elite RBs are hard to come by, we’ve got to be ahead of the boom weeks if we want to secure players onto our teams for a decent price. And right now, we’re witnessing a flip right in front of our eyes.

If you blink, you might miss your window.

Henry will still produce, but I want in on Spears before the tides of the Titans officially turn.

Takeaway: More work is incoming. Get Spears before it’s too late.

🛒 SELL

📉 Kyren Willams, RB - Rams

AH!! I know. Williams has been a league winner for many this season, and to proclaim “sell” feels like blasphemy.

Even as I write this, I’m hating myself for it. But in Cooper Kupp’s return, Williams is looking to be the direct beneficiary of the big, bad, stolen targets. And in PPR formats, to put it simply, this is pain.

The silver lining is, of course, Williams’ role on the Rams’ offense. He continues to play the majority of snaps and he holds the bulk of the rushing share.

However, his efficiency is lacking.

The combination of his decreased looks through the air and the looming bad omen of Williams’ lackluster rushing yards over expectation make me skittish. And I’d rather try to capitalize on selling now before it all comes to a head.

Takeaway: I’m sorry Kyren. I’m just scared.

🛒 HOLD

📉 Breece Hall, RB - Jets

After three consecutive weeks with sub-double-digit points, some fantasy managers may be tempted to sell high off of Breece Hall’s blow-up performance in Week 5. Season highs, anyone?

Sure, the Jets facing Denver did play a role, but let’s consider the fact that Hall’s talent isn’t a fluke. We’ve been hearing the “If you take away his best plays...” chants since Week 1. But you’ll soon find that Hall can’t be bottled up for much longer.

Not only did he have 69% of the rushing attempts in Week 5, which is f*ckin’ #nice, but his utilization metrics are even nicer.

The Jets are seemingly turning things around and Breece can break off for some pretty electric plays. If you have him, hold him <3.

Takeaway: We’re in it for the long… Hall.

More Players to Buy, Sell, or Hold for Week 6

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