😲 3 Big Names Likely To Sit Today

It's technically Sunday but it's really Jeff Saturday...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• Zeke might sit
• Morning Download: Pete gets you caught up
• Where will Odell land?
• Eliot's favorite stack: Bears/Lions
• SNF: Our SNF Picks & Plays
• Player Matchups: Christian Kirk & Greg Dulcich
• It’s 11/13. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

The big news this morning surrounds the Dallas Cowboys and whether Ezekiel Elliott will play this afternoon vs. the Packers.

Zeke hyperextended and bruised his right knee on October 23, missed the game against the Bears, and then rested on bye last week. He then got in limited practices this week and a vote of confidence from Jerry Jones, who said he expects him to play.

But things have changed since then with growing pessimism that the Cowboys will play it safe with Zeke. 

The team elevated RB Qadree Ollison from the practice squad yesterday, seeming to indicate that there's a real possibility Zeke sits. 

This is a tricky spot for fantasy since this is a late game today (4:25pm ET), but if you have Tony Pollard you fire him up regardless of Zeke's status. We currently have him ranked as a solid RB2, but if Zeke were to miss he'd easily be a Top 12 RB play on the week:

Read on for the rest of the overnight news on the QBs (Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Matthew Stafford) and take advantage of all our great resources when setting your lineups:

• INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
• RANKINGS - Full Week 9 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool and we'll tell you the best option:
• PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.

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💰 Matt LaMarca is betting: Cleveland Browns +3.5

The Dolphins are starting to get some steam as a legit sleeper in the AFC. They’re currently sitting at 6-3 for the year, but they’re a perfect 6-0 in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa. Tua is even starting to get some MVP buzz, checking in at +1100 on BetMGM.

That said, has anything the Dolphins have done recently really been that impressive? They’ve managed to beat the Bears and Lions in back-to-back weeks, with both wins coming by four points or fewer. Their only impressive wins this season came against the Bills and Ravens, and they were thoroughly outplayed in both contests. The Ravens ultimately blew a 21-point lead, while the Bills outgained the Dolphins by 285 yards.

Selling high on overvalued teams like the Dolphins is a winning strategy in NFL betting, so I’m grabbing the points with the Browns.

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📁 Josh Allen going to gut it out?

The big question mark for Week 10 has been whether or not Allen would be able to play through his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injury. It was touch-and-go throughout the week with head coach Sean McDermott saying it was a "hour-to-hour" situation.

As of now, Allen is expected to play vs. the Vikings after getting in only one limited practice on Friday. The team didn't elevate Matt Barkley from the practice squad, which would seem to confirm reports that he's likely to play.

If, for some reason, he can't go, competent backup Case Keenum would get the revenge game nod. Be sure to check our inactives page at 11:30am ET for the final update.

📁 Rams, Cardinals backup QB battle??

Neither Matthew Stafford or Kyler Murray is expected to play today, though we won't know for certain until inactives around 3 pm ET today. Stafford is still dealing with a concussion, which means John Wolford will get the start. And Murray is struggling with a hamstring injury, which would give Colt McCoy the start for the Cardinals. Outside of Cooper Kupp and DeAndre Hopkins, there isn't much to like in this game from a fantasy perspective. The total is down to 40.5. 

📁 The Titans passing game gets a big boost

After missing the previous two games, Ryan Tannehill is expected to return to the lineup today vs. the Broncos. Malik Willis combined for only 26 pass attempts in his two starts, so Tannehill should provide a big boost to the passing game. The team will also get back exciting rookie WR Treylon Burks, who has been activated off IR.

📁 Misc. files

Kenny Golladay will make his return to the Giants lineup, but don't hold your breath for fantasy production...Rookie RB Kyren Williams has been activated and could easily lead the Rams backfield in touches...RB Eli Mitchell is expected to be active as CMC's backup tonight for the Niners.

🤔 Where will Odell land?? Here's an update with a short list of five teams.

💰 5 prop bets we love today. Matt LaMarca shares the goods. 

😡 The disgruntled WR who is back in the lineup. Can we take his word for it? He's no longer a captain.

🥵 Fantasy Life is back on AMP at 11am ET! Join Dwain McFarland & Jordan Fiegleman as they answer EVERY SINGLE fantasy question

😎 Should you play Tony Pollard in DFS today? It might not matter if Zeke is active. Find out why.

🧠 Who is the most valuable non-QB in the league? Fun question to ponder.

🌋 This WR is about to blow up. Dwain told you earlier this week, and now PayDirt is here to hammer it home. 

✈️ The Bucs almost didn't have a key starter today. Smh.

📅 This star RB will have to wait for a new contract. I'd wait until after I ran all over the Texans too.

When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...

🚀Justin Fields > Darnell Mooney (Bring Back: Amon-Ra St. Brown)

While we prefer Lions’ games in a dome, any time that defense steps on the field, opposing offenses have a chance to break the slate. The Lions' defense ranks 32nd in EPA per play, explosive pass percentage against, and points per game. 

Typically we wouldn't look to chase a 45.7 DraftKings fantasy point performance from a QB whose salary increased $1,200 from the previous week. However, Justin Fields has been underpriced for weeks and continues to be, even after the increase in salary.

Fields is the QB2 overall in the last four weeks of the season in large part due to what he is doing on the ground. He leads the NFL in scramble rate and has been destroying opponents averaging 9.8 yards per scramble. The Lions' defense has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to QBs despite playing only two QBs in the top 15 of rushing yards. Those two QBs (Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith) combined for 139 yards and 2 TDs on the ground.

Fields is not a one-trick pony with his legs, he has arm talent too. He has been airing it out more of late, and when he does, Darnell Mooney has remained his top target. Mooney is seeing 38% of the air yards and 28.4% of the targets, both of which rank top 15 among receivers.

Dominating the deep targets, this could be the week Mooney finally pops to put up 20+ fantasy points. The Lions have given up a 48.7% completion percentage on deep passes, allowing 15.4 yards per attempt and four touchdowns.

Running back the Bears' offense with the sun god, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the optimal approach. Per our partners at Run The Sims, St. Brown ends up in the optimal DFS lineup 15% of the time, the third-highest rate of any receiver on the slate.

St. Brown is now fully healthy after seeing 100% route share and 43% of the teams' targets last week.

Gone is T.J. Hockenson, limited is D’Andre Swift, and the lack of talent around St. Brown should force him to be fed. Last year in this situation, St. Brown finished with four straight top-10 fantasy performances. 

St. Brown has now played 6 games without Hockenson in the lineup. He has never seen less than nine targets in any of those games and is averaging 7.5 receptions, 88 yards, 0.67 TDs, and 22.6 PPR points.

We get a fun one tonight with the Niners hosting the Chargers as 7.5-point home favorites in a game with a respectable 45.5 point over/under.

It's weird to think Justin Herbert would be a touchdown plus underdog to Jimmy Garoppolo, but he'll once again be without Mike Williams (ankle) and Keenan Allen (hamstring).

Eli Mitchell (knee) is expected to return to the lineup for the Niners, as is Deebo Samuel, who was removed from the injury report on Friday.

Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:  All odds via BetMGM...

Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...

🥵️ Christian Kirk @ KC

Who knew that Christian Kirk has been worth the huge contract he signed this past March? Kirk has been the unquestioned top receiving target for the Jaguars, as he’s put up an almost 24% target share and leads the team in every meaningful receiving category en route to his current standing as fantasy’s WR10 through nine weeks.

This week, Kirk gets to line up across from a Chiefs defense that ranks eighth-worst against every position in fantasy. Even kicker! The Chiefs also allow 270 passing yards per game (seventh-worst) and a league-high 17 passing touchdowns — seven touchdowns to slot receivers.

Seems bad.

The Jaguars may need to pass more, considering they are almost 10-point underdogs to the Chiefs in the highest-scoring game on the slate per BetMGM. It helps that QB Trevor Lawrence has been on a nice run himself as fantasy’s QB7 over the last four weeks. Kirk should be able to keep his run going in a matchup that lends itself to passing volume. Put this one in the bank!

🥵️ Greg Dulcich @ TEN

Not a lot has gone right with the Broncos this season, but there is a glimmer of hope — the long, flowing locks of Greg Dulcich gracing the starting lineup. Since becoming the starting TE on MNF in Week 6, all Dulcich has done is put up three consecutive top-12 performances. In addition, Dulcich has a higher target share (17.7%) than teammate Courtland Sutton since Week 6, so he’s really maximized his opportunities so far. He’s also sporting the fourth-highest air yards at the TE position since his Week 6 debut and the highest aDOT among tight ends (13.2 yards) with eight or more targets. Any question about whether Dulcich has been a flash in the pan can be directed to his routes shares in all three games he’s played: 79%, 71%, and a season-high 91% in Week 8 before the Broncos’ bye.

The Titans have been #notgood at defending TEs, giving up the third-most yards per game and the ninth-worst defense to opposing fantasy TEs. The TE position for fantasy has been a wasteland outside the top-five options this season, so having a player like Dulcich with an excellent receiving profile (and exactly one passing blocking snap per PFF) is huge.

He’s a top-six option with the upside for much more in Week 10.

Good Morning!

— Joey Wright (@thejoeywright)
Nov 12, 2022