😲 3 Late-Round QBs With ELITE Upside

72 days until Chiefs-Lions Thursday night football…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by AI Tool Report:

• Late-round QBs who still boast elite dual-threat upside
• A backup RB gets some offseason hype
• What now: Keeping up with the trends
• Team preview: Kansas City Chiefs
• It’s 6/27. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…

QBs are flying off draft boards quicker than ever this year. While past seasons have featured one or two signal-callers with average draft positions (ADP) inside the top 50 overall players, 2023 is its own monster.

• 2019: 2 QBs with ADP inside the top-50 overall players
• 2020: 2
• 2021: 3
• 2022: 4
• 2023: 8

There’s little debate that dual-threat aliens like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts warrant early-round consideration. Overall, 13 of 14 QBs with 125-plus carries in a single season in NFL history posted top-12 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis.

High-usage rushers at QB join high-volume receiving RBs as the closest thing fantasy football has to cheat codes.

The Fantasy Life staff has debated the pros and cons of drafting a high-cost QB, and Dwain McFarland broke down optimal roster construction in cases when you do take one of the top-tier options at the position.

That said: Scholars maintain there is, in fact, one thing cooler than drafting a high-end fantasy QB with elite upside in the early rounds.

Answer: Getting the same sort of talent in the later rounds 😎.

The following three QBs boast prolific rushing floors and are within shouting distance of notching the magical 125 carries, according to Fantasy Life Projections.

🐎 Colts QB Anthony Richardson

ADP: QB11 (pick 99.3)

The case for Richardson in fantasy land is simple: The man is quantifiably the most-athletic QB … ever.

The Florida product scored a perfect 10 RAS (relative athletic score) after showing up to the combine at 6’4, 244 lbs, where he set the record for both the broad and vertical jumps while also clocking a blazing 4.44 forty-yard dash.

Richardson nicknamed himself “Cam Jackson” in the 11th grade. His reasoning: "Just trying to make big plays, just like Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson.”

The fact that this is not an egregious nickname is all you need to know.

Gardner Minshew may start the season ahead of Richardson – I have to eat this tweet if so – but aside from the potential for bad future personal digestive issues: The 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 4 overall pick fits the archetype of someone capable of being a far better fantasy QB than real-life option early in his career.

😲 Giants QB Daniel Jones

ADP: QB14 (pick 112.9)

The artist known as “Vanilla Vick” became one of just nine QBs to ever register a season with 3,000-plus passing yards and over 700 rushing yards in 2022.

Jones’ fantasy production from purely rushing volume was on par with the league’s very best rushers.

• Justin Fields (10.8 fantasy points per game from purely rushing production)
• Jalen Hurts (10.3)
• Lamar Jackson (7.9)
• Josh Allen (7.4)
• Daniel Jones (7.1)

Jones stands out as a high-floor, middle-class QB with the potential to soar higher should his passing production improve even in a moderate fashion.

🐦 Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

ADP: QB22 (pick 167.5)

I know, I know: Murray is injured and on a terrible team, meaning there’s a non-zero chance his return to action is brought along with extreme caution – especially if the front office starts really imagining what Caleb Williams might look like with a bird on his helmet.

Here’s the thing: There simply isn’t much of a track record of the 25-year-old QB playing professional football and NOT racking up fantasy points.

• 2022: 18.2 fantasy points per game (QB7)
• 2021: 21.5 (QB4)
• 2020: 23.7 (QB4)
• 2019: 17.8 (QB11)

I LOVE throwing late-round darts at Murray in best ball land; he’s a proven upside QB1 when healthy and being drafted after the top-50 RBs, top-75 WRs and top-20 TEs are already off the board.

Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re reading this newsletter because you’re here for the long haul. “What now, Cooter?” Each week I’ll break down ways to survive the off-season.

Survival Tip #15: Keep up with the trends, Cool Kids 😎

Look, I don’t usually talk numbers. But Kevin O’Toole says that “three data points is a story.” So get comfy. It’s storytime.

• The setting: Redraft (PPR)
• The main characters: WR/RB/QB
• The plot: ADP shifts

Using fantasy leader data from the last three years (2020-2022), there’s been a stark shift in which player positions provide top fantasy performances. So what do you say? Let’s catch up with the trends, cool kids:

🥛 Trend #1: WRs and RBs, like cream, are rising to the top

Looking at total fantasy points per year, the WR/RB positions have slowly started to claim their spot as top dogs in the race over these last three seasons. RUFF RUFF!

In 2020, only one RB and one WR squeaked into the top 10, while QBs claimed the throne. But in 2021, five of the top 10 scorers were WR/RB, with this number increasing to six in 2022.

Not only did Cooper Kupp produce more fantasy points than all QBs in 2021, but guys like Austin Ekeler, Justin Jefferson, CMC, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Josh Jacobs outscored all but four QBs in 2022.

The QBs have been dethroned.

Not only are WRs and RBs securing more top-tier finishes, but the QB landscape is starting to look different as well.

📈 Trend #2: Elite QBs are separating from the pack

Since 2020, we are seeing a growing separation between the elite and the common folk. (The “elite” meaning Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and whatever 1-2 other QBs make the cut.)

In 2020, there was a 64.3 total point difference between QB1 Allen and QB10 Lamar Jackson. In 2021, there was a 107.1-point difference between QB1 Allen and QB10 Kyler Murray. In 2022, there was a 138.1-point difference between QB1 Mahomes and QB10 Jared Goff.

In other words: The gap has more than doubled in the last three years.

Because the ADP of elite QBs remains outside of the top 20 picks, despite the increased rarity of this high-level production, this type of separation makes an elite QB more valuable than in years prior.

Are the days of waiting late for QBs fading? It doesn’t look promising.

🙃 Trend #3: Zero RB is flipping the script

Love it or hate it, Zero RB as a draft strategy is catching on amongst the masses.

Ian Hartitz recently wrote about the widely adopted phenomenon of early-round WR drafts taking over. And as a result, RBs are falling in ADP.

As this trend continues, you may witness unrecognizable roster constructions as fantasy players take advantage of The Fallen RB™. But more often than not, WRs are flying off the board earlier and earlier.

❓ What does it all mean?

Trends are just data points. The story they tell is one of the past. But being aware of these evolving trends is necessary if you want to have the upper hand in the future.

Sure, your home league may draft differently than the average fantasy football player. I know mine does. But knowing these trends can help you to make sense of what unfolds in front of you on draft day.

💨 The next great two-sport NFL athlete? This WR can literally fly.

🚀 Update on the Patriots’ ever-evolving backfield. Don’t be surprised if this RB’s ADP skyrockets by August.

✈️ The Jets believe this late-round rookie RB can contribute right away. So you’re saying there’s a chance.

🏋️ Nothing like a good off-season weight training video. At least this veteran WR is looking healthy!

😧 Ian’s fantasy football RB rankings are LIVE. Jonathan Taylor is ranked WHERE?

👀 New competition has this second-year RB’s ADP in the gutter. But this report indicates his workload might not be changing.

👕 Brad Pitt LOVES this new summer clothing collection. Okay, that’s a lie, but you could imagine what it’d be like if he did.

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Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Chiefs, who once again profile as having one of the league’s most prolific passing attacks thanks to a certain baby GOAT under center…

🏈 WRs

• Kadarius Toney (Ian’s WR36)
• Skyy Moore (WR59)
• Rashee Rice (WR62)
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR69)
• Richie James (WR96)
• Justyn Ross (WR112)
• Justin Watson (WR145)

Toney moves differently than most professional football players. In a good way.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this man has never lost a game of tag in his life.

Besides Toney’s tendency to play football like he’s living life on fast forward, it was good to see him finally get a chance to at least briefly show what he could do in an offense happy to feed him the rock.

Overall, Toney ranked first in targets per route run (29.4%!) among all WRs from Weeks 9 to the Super Bowl … with a minimum of 25 targets.

That’s the central problem with the 24-year-old talent: Toney has only played in 19 of a possible 34 regular season games since being selected with the 20th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. Multiple hamstring problems have been the primary culprit, as was the rising third-year pro’s ever-shaky relationship with the Giants.

Focusing on the present day: Toney does project as one of the Chiefs’ starting WRs alongside MVS and probably one of Moore or Rice. Of course, it’s likely Watson stays involved to some extent on the outside, while James and Ross are wild cards in the equation.

The main driving force of 2023 being the year Toney breaks out in a major way comes down to the constant drumbeat of positive offseason chatter:

• February 28: Reid says Toney will probably have a bigger role and is very talented.
• May 7: Chiefs GM Brett Veach said, “I don’t know if there is a limit on [Kadarius Toney's] game because he has a vertical game. It’s a fair question to [ask]: ‘Has he ever played with a quarterback that likes to push the ball down the field?’ We have a lot of high hopes for him. He was a first-round pick for a reason. There’s a reason why we traded for him and we felt like he was a first-round talent.”
• May 29: ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said the Chiefs believe Toney can be the “No. 1 type receiver” they’re looking for this season.
• June 1: OC Matt Nagy said Toney is, “Super talented with the football in his hands, and he’s been that way his entire life in his football career.” Nagy noted that Toney now knows the "ins and outs" of the Chiefs' system entering his second season with the team: "He was able to do that, and it’s exciting now for us to be able to take that to Year 2 and build that relationship with (Patrick Mahomes)."

Ultimately, Toney is going off the board as the WR38 (pick 72.5) alongside fellow unproven boom-or-bust types like Treylon Burks, George Pickens and Gabe Davis.

This is a reasonable price for a prospect who has flashed such tantalizing per-route numbers inside of the league’s single-most lethal passing attack; the ceiling is the moon for Toney with a full-time role and the blessing of the ever-annoying injury Gods.

Sadly, it might be wishful thinking to expect more than one highly fantasy-relevant WR to emerge from this offense with how involved the team’s future Hall of Fame TE remains in the passing attack.

There have certainly been some big individual performances from the Chiefs’ top WR in PPR points per game since 2014:

• 2022: Mecole Hardman (11.7 PPR points per game, WR32)
• 2021: Tyreek Hill (17.4, WR6)
• 2020: Hill (21.9, WR2)
• 2019: Hill (15.7, WR11)
• 2018: Hill (20.9, WR3)
• 2017: Hill (16.4, WR4)
• 2016: Hill (13.6, WR21)
• 2015: Jeremy Maclin (16.2, WR18)
• 2014: Dwayne Bowe (9, WR61)

And yet, 2018 Sammy Watkins (11.5, WR35) was the only WR not named Tyreek to average double-digit PPR points per game in a single season between 2016 and 2021.

Ultimately, each of Moore, MVS and Rashee Rice profile as reasonable later-round darts who could find themselves with full-time roles inside the league’s most prolific passing attack, while James and Ross are more pray-and-spray final-round dart throws than anything at this point.

These are all fair prices to pay; just realize we haven’t seen the No. 2 WR in this offense achieve anything more than borderline WR3 production in quite some time.

What about Travis Kelce and the rest of the Chiefs?!

You can also listen to/watch Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland break down every angle of the Super Bowl Champs’ 2023 outlook HERE!

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