Just one more night until NFL Christmas...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by The Athletic:
- 3 Draft Day Trades from Ian. Cool? Cool.
- What Now? The draft survival guide.
- Dynasty Rookie Profile: UAB RB DeWayne McBride
- Mock draft SZN rolls on. Picks 27 to 29.
- It's 4/26. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...
Sources are sourcing, mocks are mocking: The NFL landscape will be altered in a major way in a matter of days. (You can watch Fantasy Life's NFL Draft livestream on Thursday here!)
Certain projected draft picks (Bryce Young to the Panthers) seem inevitable at the moment, but otherwise, the only consistency in draft-day rumors has largely been the general inconsistency involved over the last few weeks.
None of us really have any clue what’s going to happen on Thursday and beyond — we can’t know — but that doesn’t stop us from having our suspicions.
What follows are three potential draft day trades meant to make objective sense, but more importantly, to be subjectively fun. I don’t have insider information influencing these trades. We’re just Drake and Josh’ing around here. Cool? Cool.
🔀 Cardinals trade WR DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs
Yes, the Chiefs managed to win last season’s Super Bowl without a single WR who should be considered a true No. 1 option.
Also yes, it’s not illegal to try and spruce up the position anyway.
Through trade, free agency or the draft: Kansas City has some work to do if they want to have anything other than one of the league’s single-most unproven WR rooms. Each player’s career receiving production is listed in parenthesis:
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: (165 rec-2,840 yards-15 TD)
- Richie James: (95-1,258-7)
- John Ross: (62-957-11)
- Kadarius Toney: (55-591-2)
- Skyy Moore: (22-250-0)
- Ihmir Smith-Marsette: (6-131-2)
- Justyn Ross: (0-0-0)
- Cornell Powell: (0-0-0)
- Ty Fryfogle: (0-0-0)
- Jerrion Ealy: (0-0-0)
Three of last season’s top-five leaders in receiving yards aren’t on the roster at the moment, and the Chiefs have the 10th-cheapest WR room in the league. Travis Kelce was very much still incredible in 2022, although he’ll be 34 by the time October rolls around.
Is adding DeAndre Hopkins unnecessary? Maybe. Is it a fun idea? Absolutely. Hopkins’ nuanced route-running ability would be a welcome sight inside of an offense without many non-Kelce pass-catchers capable of consistently winning against man coverage.
🔀 Commanders trade up into the top 10, select Florida QB Anthony Richardson
This is an offense with an awfully good trio of WRs in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel to go along with the league’s reigning seventh-ranked scoring defense. More help on the offensive line would be nice, too; just realize Washington isn’t that far away from fielding a potential contender inside of the relatively weak NFC.
Seriously: Terry deserves better.
Terry McLaurin career quarterbacks:
Carson Wentz
Taylor Heinicke
Alex Smith
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Dwayne Haskins
Colt McCoy
Case Keenum
Kyle Allen
Garrett Gilbert
…
Sam Howell
Here’s to hoping the organization doesn’t let last year’s Carson Wentz-induced scars prevent them from making a more serious effort to address the QB room ahead of next season.
Commanders head coach Ron Rivera’s successful history with Cam Newton makes it easy to imagine Richardson, aka “Cam Jackson,“ rocking burgundy and gold. The Florida talent easily profiles as the most fantasy-friendly rookie QB thanks to his absurd rushing upside; giving him this crop of weapons would make his NFL transition that much easier.
🔀 Falcons trade TE Kyle Pitts to the Lions
The Lions' current TE room:
Brock Wright: Former undrafted free agent who managed only one game with more than 25 receiving yards after the Hockenson trade.
Shane Zylstra: Former undrafted free agent who popped off for a 5-26-3 receiving line in Week 16 last season. His production in 16 other career games: 9-68-1.
James Mitchell: Perhaps the most-intriguing receiving prospect of the group, Mitchell fell to the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft in large part because of a torn ACL just two games into his senior season. Mitchell’s 11-113-1 receiving line in 14 games as a rookie wasn’t dominant by any stretch of the imagination, just realize his collegiate reviews were largely sterling from a route-running and burst perspective.
Derrick Deese Jr.: Former undrafted free agent who hasn’t played an NFL snap, although his 47-730-4 receiving line during his final season at San Jose State does paint the picture of a TE with some level of receiving upside.
That’s life without a full offseason to replace former No. 8 overall pick T.J. Hockenson and Jameson Williams, who was recently suspended. That leaves the Lions' passing game dangerously thin on proven pass-game options not nicknamed the Sun God.
It would make a lot of sense if the Lions add another body (or two) to the room with one of their five picks inside the draft’s top-81 selections … or they make the Falcons an enticing offer to land the ultra-talented — yet criminally underused — 22-year-old talent. There were briefly some trade rumors surrounding PItts back in December; this move would help #RestoreTheRoar in a major way.
👀 Go Beast-mode on the Competition?
Channel your inner Marshawn with this comprehensive draft guide…
The Beast Quake is to NFL runs as The Beast is to NFL Draft Guides…iconic.
Dane Brugler’s labor of love, The Beast, is one of the most in-depth and informed NFL Draft Guides built around 401 scouting reports and 1,893 player rankings.
When you sign up for The Athletic you get The Beast and so much more…including some of the best local beat writers covering your favorite teams from every sport.
All of this for only $1.99/month…seriously $1.99.
That’s taking care of your chickens in a way even Marshawn would approve of!
📈 Reddit is reshaping NFL draft odds. We have BIG movement.
✈️ Aaron Rodgers is finally a J-E-T. What's the fantasy fallout?
🦅 Which QB does Bijan want to play with most? Don't click here, Cowboys fans.
📠 Go send that trade offer. What's the worst that could happen?
🚂 Are the Bears on the RBs-don't-matter train? Doesn't sound like it.
❓ The biggest pre-draft questions. Ian has one for all 32 teams!
🔧 Is there a 5-tool WR in this year's draft? Four WRs are contenders.
😂 The NFL reacts to the Aaron Rodgers trade. Lmao.
Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re reading this newsletter because you’re here for the long haul. “What now, Cooter?” Each week I’ll break down ways to survive the off-season.
2023 Draft Survival Guide
🏠Find Shelter
If you’re going to make it through the draft, you need to find appropriate shelter to weather the storm. Think Super Bowl party vibes, except less lip-syncing and more people yelling ‘boooo.’ Watching the draft at home is always acceptable, but this is a great excuse to get off the couch and meet friends for dinner. But if you’re venturing out of the house, be sure to find a place with plenty of flat screens.
🤕 First Aid
First aid is essential during the draft, but not for you.
This is for the NFL fans that will find themselves heartbroken when their favorite team passes up on an elite position … or when fans of the other 31 NFL teams watch Bijan Robinson go off the board. And remember, it’s not so bad if your team doesn’t hit on their first pick, there’s always Round 2! Unless you are the Broncos, Browns, or 49ers … In that case, we’ll see you Friday.
🕯️ Keep Calm
Are teams going to make last-minute surprising trades? Yes. Are teams going to pivot and throw NFL analysts into a frenzy as they nuke their mock drafts? Sure. But you and me, we’re going to stay level-headed. You see, while everyone overreacts, we are going to trust the process. GMs and Head Coaches have long-term plans that we aren’t privy to. While it’s fun to joke about the Matt Nagy and Urban Meyers of the world, most of these guys know what they’re doing.
Keep calm and think about how this new depth chart affects your future fantasy draft strategy.
✍️ Take Notes
Maybe you’re a degenerate, and you’ve been studying every rookie. But if you haven’t, you’re in the majority. Don’t worry, because this is the perfect time to get to know them. Draft coverage will not only introduce you to each player's background, but their stories will likely take up the majority of the feed.
Imagine a pie chart with 85% of it filled in for time spent covering player history, 10% for time spent booing Roger Goodell, and 5% allotted for draft pick announcements. Someone double-check my numbers, but this feels right. Oh, and don’t stress it if your friends know more about these rookies than you do. I’ve got a list of things to say in a pinch if you need to keep the conversation going. You’re welcome! :)
- “Yea, but did you see his 40 time?”
- “I’m curious to see how they utilize him this year.”
- “Hm. He’s good, but it honestly all depends on which team takes him.”
- “Hm. He’s good, so it honestly doesn’t matter which team takes him.”
- “One sec, I gotta pee.”
🏃♂️ DeWayne McBride | RB | UAB
- Superflex Rookie Draft Ranking: 26
- Underdog ADP: 227 (RB68)
- Rookie RB Super Model: 73rd percentile
📈 Pros
💪 Hard to bring down
McBride demonstrated the ability to layer multiple moves together, leading to an 88th-percentile missed tackles forced (26%) dating back to the 2017 class. Lance Zierlein has McBride as his No. 9 back, calling out his “good blend of shiftiness and power,” which lines up 100% with the data. No RB in the 2023 class averaged more yards after contact over their career than McBride’s 86th-percentile mark of 4.93 yards.
🧨️ Explosive playmaker
The former three-star recruit was unable to run at the NFL combine due to a hamstring injury which has some analysts concerned about his big-play upside. However, McBride translated 96 (20%) of his career rushing attempts (484) into plays of 10-plus yards. He doesn’t have elite long speed, but he still has the upside to deliver consistent chunk plays in the NFL.
📉 Cons
😢 Receiving profile
The UAB coaching staff severely limited McBride’s utilization in the passing game, with a 22% career route participation — bottom three in the class. Furthermore, when he was in a route, things didn’t improve — his 6% TPRR and 0.16 YPRR ranked dead last. There is a chance McBride could develop into a functional check-down option at the next level, but the chances of him turning into a plus-value asset in the passing attack aren’t high.
🔒 Ball security
McBride put the ball on the ground 10 times on his 489 touches at UAB, which could be a concern for NFL executives. His 2% fumble rate was double the typical 1% rate on rushing plays by non-quarterbacks since 2014.
🔮 Fantasy Impact
McBride would have graded out in Tier 3 of the Rookie RB Super Model if he had posted the same data points against Power Five competition. However, he is still a solid Tier 4 prospect after adjusting for his level of competition. We have seen 63% of RBs with a score between 70 and 79 deliver at least one top-24 finish in their first two to three seasons, and 37% have managed a top-12 finish.
He has limitations in the passing game, but McBride could develop into a solid early-down back at the next level. If he lands on a good offense that wants to pound the rock, that could give him upside in the TD department. His closest comps in the RB Super Model are A.J. Dillon and Trey Sermon.
Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist just released V3.0 of his first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history, while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we are spotlighting his Nos. 27, 28, and 29 picks…
27. Buffalo Bills: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
A major part of the Buffalo Bills' defensive success is the rangy play of linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds.
Edmunds got a monster contract from Chicago and is now a Bear. Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders is a near clone of Edmunds and would fill the void on day one.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
- Rookie Rank: TE: 3, Superflex Ranking: 25
The Bengals need to keep Joe Burrow upright and continue to add to his playmakers for him, and Darnell Washington can do both.
A former five-star recruit, Washington is a monster of a man whose 96th percentile speed score is seen on film after the catch. Last season, Washington averaged 7.6 yards after the catch per reception, the second-best metric of the class.
He doesn’t have the production you look for in the first round, but his upside is undeniable, which is why he sits at +100 to go in Round 1.
📣 Summary from The Beast:
With The Athletic, you can get access to 400+ of these scouting reports, nearly 1,900 player rankings, AND year-round analysis of your favorite leagues and teams...all for only $1.99/month. Sign up now to access The Beast and more!
A three-year starter at Georgia, Washington was a traditional Y tight end in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s offense, lining up primarily inline (66.2 percent) over his career.
His college receiving stats (45 catches in 36 games) look more like single-season production as he was underutilized as a pass catcher, primarily because of Bowers’ impact and Washington’s value as a sixth offensive lineman.
The leanest 270ish pounds I have ever seen on a football field, Washington executes different kinds of blocks with his athletic range and the physical hands to control, drive and steer defenders.
As a receiver, he gives his quarterback a massive catching target and swallows the football, although his long legs can get tied up on redirection routes or when making sharp cuts out of breaks.
29. New Orleans Saints: Calijah Kancey, DL, Pittsburgh
Kancey is an undersized, athletic freak who will draw comparisons to Aaron Donald because of the school he is from, but there is no denying his 99th-percentile speed score.
With 14.5 sacks in the last two seasons, Kancey is not just an athlete, but he produced as well. The Saints ranked 26th in PFF pass-rush grade as a unit, they need this injection of talent.
