💼 3 RBs To Stash Before TNF

Kyle Pitts missed practiced today so the team could better simulate their games (h/t)...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by KFC:

• How to handle the Broncos and Colts backfields
• Week 5: Rankings & Tiers
• The RB you need to trade away ASAP
• TNF: Fantasy & Betting Picks
• Bets from the group chat: Courtland Sutton
• It's 10/6. Take it away, Peter Overzet

When the Colts and Broncos face off tonight, they'll both be without their starting RBs, Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Javonte Williams (ACL). Whether you are filling out your staring lineup, betting props, or making showdown DFS lineups, cracking the code to these backfields will be key.

Here's everything we currently know about the backfields heading into Thursday Night Football:

🎠 Broncos: Melvin Gordon, Mike Boone, Latavius Murray

Despite the fumble issues in Week 4, the Broncos have already said Gordon will "obviously" carry the load, and I see no reason not to take their statement at face value. Let's not forget Gordon is the same RB who kept Williams from being a bellcow.  We have Gordon slotting in as a solid, back-end RB2, and he should be comfortably started in most leagues.

Boone is an intriguing stash and should be picked up in all leagues as the next man up, but he does not project for enough work tonight to warrant starting him. Latavius Murray's presence further complicates things for Boone, who will likely siphon off a few touches. Murray is not on the fantasy radar. 

🎠 Colts: Nyheim Hines, Deon Jackson, and Phillip Lindsay

Unlike Gordon, who could step into a bellcow role, Hines isn't likely to see increased looks. He's only played more than 50% of the snaps just ten times in his career. Still, Hines should be a focal point in the passing game on a team in desperate need of playmakers. I'm not quite as bullish as Dwain (read his take below), but he's a solid start in PPR leagues.

I think, ultimately, most of Taylor's early-down rushing work will be split between the rookie Jackson and the journeyman Lindsay (revenge game, anyone?). The former Bronco was recently promoted from the practice squad, and Frank Reich specifically called out Lindsay when discussing the backfield sans Taylor:

Lindsay and Jackson fall into a similar category as Boone. They should be stashed but not started. Feel free to fire up Hines in PPR leagues, though. He's an RB3 with RB2 upside if they finally increase his rushing load.

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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 5, and Dwain has you covered with in-depth player tiers, rankings, and analysis. Here are a few of his favorites for Week 5:

Running Back

💥 Tier 1 – Dalvin Cook

Cook dominated rushing attempts (77%) one week off of a shoulder injury in Week 4. His route participation dipped to 43%, which creates a small concern in his utilization profile, but his 62% snap share was still substantial.

Scoring Environment: 

• The Vikings have the sixth-highest implied point total
• Minnesota is a seven-point favorite (fourth-highest)

The Vikings get a choice matchup against the Bears, who have allowed a league-leading 143 rushing attempts in non-overtime play – good for 22.9 points per game (3rd) on the ground.

Cook returns to SMASH status in Week 5 with multiple factors aligning in his favor.

🥈 Tier 2 – Devin Singletary

Singletary completely controlled the Bills backfield over the last two games. In Week 4, he tallied season-highs in snaps (87%), rushing attempts (55%), and route participation (79%).

Buffalo is hurting at WR after losing Jamison Crowder for the season (ankle). Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox aren’t earning targets at a high clip, which mirrors their historical talent profiles. So they might just be tertiary options. Singletary has 18% and 16% target shares in the last two weeks.

In his last eight games with 70%-plus snaps, he has delivered RB29, RB20, RB14, RB7, RB10, RB5, RB4, and RB23 finishes.

The Bills get a juicy matchup against the Steelers as 14-point favorites with the No. 1 implied point total on the slate. Pittsburgh allows the fourth-most rushing attempts (124) per game in non-overtime play. The Bills are a pass-heavy team in all scripts, but Singletary should see plenty of work in a favorable spot.

I have Singletary 13 spots ahead of expert consensus this weekend – he is a SMASH play.

🥇 Tier 3 – Nyheim Hines

Hines climbs into low-end RB2 territory with Jonathan Taylor ruled out for the Thursday night tilt against the Broncos. We could see Deon Jackson and/or Philip Lindsay get involved as well, but this preseason, the Colts almost exclusively used Hines as an every-down option in drives with the starters while Taylor rested.

That doesn’t guarantee we will see an every-down version of Hines, but his role in the run game will expand, and the Colts could opt to throw the ball more to take advantage of the most talented RB they will have on the roster this week.

Wide Receiver

 💥 Tier 1 – A.J. Brown

Brown ranks fifth in the NFL in target share (32%) and leads the Eagles in air yards (45%). He sees 40% of his targets on play-action passes – which is 15 percentage points above the NFL average for WRs. Play-action targets are worth 18% more than non-play-action looks over the last three seasons.

Brown and the Eagles’ passing attack get a juicy matchup against a Cardinals defense that allows the eighth-most non-overtime points to pass catchers per game (63.7). Arizona ranks last in PFF coverage grade.

The Eagles provide the fourth-highest implied points on the slate and the second-best game total.

Brown is a SMASH option as a mid-range WR1 in Week 5.

 🥈 Tier 2 – Chris Olave

Olave’s 26% target share ranks 13th in the NFL, averaging 15.1 points per game. 

This week, the Saints get a choice matchup against the Seahawks, who allow the highest EPA per pass in the NFL (0.36). Seattle gives up 60.4 points per game to pass catchers - a 4.2-point advantage over the NFL average.

The Saints have the sixth-highest implied points on the slate, and Seattle’s new high-tempo offense could create a high-scoring environment.

Olave is a low-end WR2 this weekend.

Dwain's full rankings and tiers article & All of the Fantasy Life Rankings

📉 The RB you need to sell ASAP. Nothing is trending in the right direction.

💣 The Giants get a weapon back. With Kenny Golladay now out, they need him badly.

🤯 An absolutely insane Baker Mayfield stat. However bad you think it is, it's worse.

👋 It's time to SIT this "superstar" RB. It's been a good run, but it's time to move on. 

💍 Sorry, Tom Brady. The jokes write themselves.

😥 What the hell, Chicago? This is just sad.

🏆 The Eagles crushed the offseason. What a haul.

It shouldn't come as any surprise that the sportsbooks don't envision the Broncos (2-2 ) and Colts (1-2-1) combining for many points (42 o/u) on a short week without their starting RBs.

The Broncos enter the game as 3-point home favorites(Odds via BetMGM), which makes sense. Even without Williams, they have far more offensive firepower than this sluggish Colts team. And they'll need someone, anyone, to take some of the pressure off Michael Pittman Jr.

Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:  

Our research for these plays comes from, Run the Sims, Props.cash (Use promo code LIFE to save 20% on your subscription), PFF, OWS, and the Fantasy Life Rankings, Start/Sit tool, and Player Props tool.

🔪 Cafe Ala Russ

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what our CCO Jordan came up with for this week...

Tonight on Thursday Night Football, the Broncos host the Colts in a game less than one week removed from the season-ending and offense-changing injury to Javonte Williams. 

Going into Week 4, the two main pillars of the Broncos’ offensive attack were clearly Williams and Courtland Sutton; fast forward less than one week, and now the star WR sits alone on top of Denver’s offensive pedestal.

🔥Courtland Sutton Over 4.5 receptions -140 BetMGM

Sutton has cleared this reception line in 3 out of 4 games this season, only falling short in Week 1, in a game where the Seahawks ran 56 total plays, which was good for the lowest rate in the NFL. (Via Props.cash use promo code LIFE for 25% off your monthly subscription BTW)

Now that the basic stuff is out of the way let’s talk about Sutton’s elite route participation. On the season, he hasn't seen below 95% of the Broncos' total routes run. Since week 1, Sutton’s lowest target share is a whopping 28%, with his highest clocking in at 41%. 

Those are elite %s for a WR; if you’re keeping track around the league, Stefon Diggs, the current fantasy WR1, has only managed to climb to a 38% rate at his highest point this season, in Week 2. 

When you combine that with the fact that Javonte Williams, who has been heavily involved in the passing attack, is about to be replaced by Melvin Gordon, who has been dealing with ball security issues, and waiver superstar Mike Boone.

It leaves me to wonder why this reception line isn't higher. 

Using my aggregate projections, I have Sutton estimated for over 6 receptions, with the lowest projection source I use estimating 5.3 receptions. 

I’m betting this confidence, and the rest of the Fantasy Life group chat, is too. Join us.

Don't forget to track all your bets with Pikkit, which automatically syncs with the places you make bets so you never have to manually input anything: