Sorry mom, I can’t come to the table. Antonio Gibson is a game-time decision…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we’re asking for your feedback:
- 3 sneaky WR plays for the Thanksgiving slate
- Thanksgiving Best Bets: A side, a prop, a SGP
- LOVE/HATE: A Thanksgiving appetizer with Matthew Berry
- Updates on Justin Jefferson & De’Von Achane
- Thanksgiving DFS Stacks: Contrarian options for Thanksgiving
- QUICK HITTER: Thanksgiving Pick’em
- It’s 11/23. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
One of the most beautiful days on the football calendar has finally arrived.
We’ve been stuffing your plate with fantasy and betting goodness all week, but I wanted to share a special Thanksgiving edition of Hidden Gems as you fire off some final drafts, DFS lineups, and prop bets.
Here are three WRs—one from each game—who I think could surprise today…
💎 Christian Watson’s time is now
It’s been a frustrating year for Watson managers, but everything is lining up for him to finally deliver on the preseason hype today…
The Packers are extremely banged up right now. TE Luke Musgrave (abdomen) won’t play, Aaron Jones (knee) is unlikely to play, and WR Dontayvion Wicks (concussion/knee) hasn’t practiced all week. Even WR Jayden Reed (chest) was listed as a limited participant on Tuesday.
Since Week 5, Watson has solid underlying usage, he just hasn’t hit for a big fantasy day yet. But when you combine his involvement with a high aDOT and a role in the red zone, there’s potential for a big day here:
And the cherry on top is that the Lions are much stiffer against the run (4th overall) than vs. the pass (21st overall), so the Packers should lean on Jordan Love in this spot.
💎 Jalen Tolbert is climbing the depth chart
Speaking of bad pass defenses, may I introduce you to the Washington Commanders, who give up the third most points to the position?
Everyone knows about CeeDee Lamb, and even Brandin Cooks, who exploded two weeks ago, but you might not have noticed that Tolbert’s role has slowly been expanding at the expense of Michael Gallup:
Despite 10 targets over the past two weeks, Tolbert has been an afterthought for most in Underdog drafts and DFS lineups. He’s a sneaky piece to toss into Dak Prescott stacks.
💎Jaxon Smith-Njigba, safety blanket
I could write up Zach Charbonnet here—he’s definitely the best option on the Seahawks this evening—but Dwain thoroughly covered his new role in the Utilization Report earlier this week.
Instead, I’ll keep the WR theme going here and highlight rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
JSN still is lagging behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in targets, but this matchup sets up particularly well for his profile.
Legendary Upside’s Pat Kerrane explains:
This matchup should also force Geno Smith to get the ball out quickly. He won’t have a ton of time to pass against an elite 49ers pass rush. That suits JSN’s typical route tree, but it also sets him up for screen usage. Smith-Njigba has seen 21% of his targets on screens this year. By comparison, Lockett is at just 6%, and Metcalf is at 2%.
It’s hard to find sleepers in the Niners/Seahawks game, but if there is one gem who could emerge, it’s likely JSN.
🛠️ Everything you need for the Thanksgiving NFL slate
Read on for more info on our best bets and DFS stacks to target for today’s slate, including the Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers, and more.
For everything else you need for Thanksgiving—including our Inactives page, —you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
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Some might think that Thanksgiving is about being thankful and spending time with your loved ones. That said, we all know it’s about football. Matt LaMarca dives into some of his favorite bets for the three-game slate.
🍗 Favorite Side: 49ers -7.5 (-105; BetMGM)
What do the 49ers have in common with stuffing? They’re my favorite side on Thanksgiving. And as we all know, the sides are the best part.
I was fortunate enough to get the 49ers at -6.0, which I locked in on Sunday. This line is now up to 7.5 across most of the industry, and there are even a few eights out there.
Still, I think San Fran is the clear right side. They’re an absolute wagon, boasting a top-five unit on both sides of the ball in terms of EPA. Outside of a three-game stretch where they were without Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams, this team has shown virtually no weaknesses.
Each of their seven wins this season has come by at least a touchdown, and the only reason that isn’t 10 points is because Sean McVay kicked a meaningless field goal as time expired in Week 2. With a banged-up Geno Smith – or possibly even Drew Lock – I have no idea how Seattle keeps this game close.
🍷 Favorite Prop: David Montgomery Under 14.5 carries (-115; BetMGM)
Matthew Freedman, Geoff Ulrich, and I had a good discussion about the Lions’ backfield on our Thanksgiving Best Bets show.
Montgomery may still be the Lions’ top runner – especially around the goal line – but his utilization has not been the same since returning to the lineup two games ago. He’s played on 38% and 41% of the snaps, and he’s managed 39% and 57% rushing shares. Montgomery was at 59% or higher in each of his first four games this season, so Jahmyr Gibbs has definitely cut into his workload.
Given how effective Gibbs has been, I don’t see that changing any time soon. Montgomery still has the efficiency to produce with fewer touches, but I think the days of him seeing 15+ carries are gone in all but the most favorable game scripts.
🍽️ Favorite SGP (+1450; BetMGM)
- Commanders +14.5
- Over 48.5
- Sam Howell 3+ touchdown passes
- Logan Thomas anytime TD
I’m going to grab an alternate spread here, pushing the Commanders up from +12.5 to +14.5. That gets us over the key number of 14, giving us some added backdoor opportunities.
Typically, pairing a large underdog with an over isn’t advised. The more points that are scored, the less value that the points towards the spread matter. For example, having 14.5 points in a game where only 30 points are scored is obviously more valuable than if there are 70.
Still, I think it makes sense in this scenario. I don’t see the Commanders’ defense slowing down Dak Prescott – they couldn’t even slow down Tommy DeVito – so their best chance of covering is a high-scoring matchup. Something like 38-28 or 41-27.
In that scenario, I like most of the scoring to come from the passing game. Howell is quietly tied for seventh in the NFL in touchdown passes, albeit for a team that has yet to go on bye. He’s had at least three touchdown tosses in three of 11 games.
Thomas has also been one of Howell’s favorite targets around the goal line. He has 22% of the team’s endzone targets for the year, tying him with Terry McLaurin for the top mark on the squad. That includes 50% of the team’s endzone targets in Week 11.
Load Up Your Thanksgiving Plate with MORE BETS!
#LOVEHATE is upon us, and Matthew Berry is here to take you through the Week 12 NFL slate!
🎙️ Mic’d up with Dan Campbell. A rollercoaster of emotions.
🥊 Week 12 mismatches. Ian’s got the manifesto.
👀 A second plate of dessert isn’t the only sneaking you should do today. Sneaky DFS plays for Thanksgiving.
🦃 EVERYTHING you need to prep for Week 12. A Fantasy OG, Pro-Bowl WR, and your favorite fantasy analysts join your Thanksgiving table.
💰 An RB due for a touchdown, an offense firing on all cylinders, and more! Thanksgiving props you NEED TO BET!
✍️ Everything you need for the Thanksgiving slate. Strategies to build your DFS lineups.
🤝 When they score, you score. Touchdown bets for the Thanksgiving slate.
📽️ A profile of Jim Irsay? Sure, I guess.
✋ Matt Canada is gone. Rejoice.
🐬 Will De’Von Achane play tomorrow? Here’s the latest.
Finding the right player stacks can be the key to building a profitable roster in DFS. If you want to get the jump on this weekend, James McCool from Paydirt DFS has the data to guide you for the Thanksgiving DFS slate.
🦁 Contrarian option: Detroit Lions
Facts:
The Lions’ offense has been strong most of the year, averaging 27.2 points per game, but they have only been pass-heavy in terms of DBOE (dropback over expectation) once and that was one of their lowering scoring affairs against the Bucs in week 6.
Over the last two weeks, We have seen Jahmyr Gibbs handle the majority of the RB snaps (58%, up from his season average of 45%) which has led to target share marks of 16% and 19% along with a TPRR (targets per route run) of 26%, all borderline elite marks.
Sam Laporta is fifth in the league in terms of total fantasy points for TEs at 12.3 PPR points per game, but his minimum outcome so far this year is the second-highest at the position at 4.8.
📚 Stack info (DraftKings)
📊 Detroit's Fantasy Football Forecasts:
Combo 1 (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta): Looking at Top Finish rate, this combo leads with a substantial 22.20% chance, indicating a strong likelihood of securing the highest ranks. With 60+% potential, at 27.90%, it stands as the most likely to achieve high-scoring outputs, reflecting its high ceiling for fantasy points.
Combo 2 (Goff/St. Brown/Reynolds): The Top Finish percentage is lower at 5.30%, it offers a reduced but still respectable chance of hitting the top of the leaderboard. For 60+% rate, It has a 10.40% chance of crossing the 60+% threshold, indicating a decent upside.
Combo 3 (Goff/Reynolds/LaPorta): Regarding Top Finish rate, with only a 0.20% chance, this combo is a long shot for top finishes, signaling a significantly lower upside. As far as 60+% potential, the likelihood here diminishes further to 0.50%, showcasing its status as the most speculative play of the three.
📈 Ceiling and High-Performance Potential:
Premium Option (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta): Undeniably, this is the premier selection for those targeting peak performance. The investment here aligns with the highest probability of top-tier finishes and scoring prowess.
Strong Balance (Goff/St. Brown/Reynolds): For those balancing cost with potential, this mid-range combo offers a meaningful chance at top finishes, with a good shot at high-scoring games.
Economical Strategy (Goff/Reynolds/LaPorta): As a cost-saving measure, this combination might appeal to those willing to take on more risk for the chance at a decent performance, knowing that the probability of a top finish and explosive scoring is markedly lower.
An important caveat of this slate is that DAL is a very clear, and very popular option for stacks, and for good reason! But DET has a similarly skinny target tree and a team total that is less than a field goal under DAL.
When you consider the upside of both teams and the ownership discount you should get with a Lions stack, it makes for a much better option in large-field GPPs. In small-field or cash games, however, you are likely better off with a Dak/Lamb/Cooks stack as your base.
Reflecting on what you’re thankful for this Thanksgiving? Us too. We’re especially thankful for our friends at Underdog Fantasy, who give you a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE.
What should you use that deposit match on, you ask? Well, how about our favorite Pick’em picks for today’s Thanksgiving NFL slate, from Geoff Ulrich?
