Our nation needs to develop QB academies. It’s our only hope…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Fantasy Life’s Prop Finder:
- 3 QBs get benched
- Dynasty Stock Watch: A Chiefs WR on the rise…
- QUICK HITTER: TNF Best Bet
- Jaylen Waddle could miss this week
- Freedman’s Favorites: Big names to bet on
- It’s 12/28. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
If we’ve learned anything this season, it’s never get comfortable at QB.
The turnover we’ve seen at the position is at an all-time high, and the chaos continued yesterday with three non-playoff teams deciding to shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic for various reasons.
Let’s dig in…
➡️ Russell Wilson > Jarrett Stidham
Sean Payton informed the Broncos yesterday that Stidham will start vs. the Chargers, with Wilson moving to the backup role.
The initial report said Denver is “looking to spark its offense," while we later learned that other factors are at play:
Wilson isn’t the first QB that this has happened to, and it brings into question whether Wilson is part of Denver’s long-term plans. The Broncos would eat a massive amount of dead money if they were to cut him, but it might not matter if Payton has already mentally moved on from working with him.
This will be a fascinating story to watch unfold in the offseason. You can find more details here.
➡️ Tommy DeVito > Tyrod Taylor
Well, the Tommy Cutlets era has come to a close for now. The Giants are turning away from everyone’s favorite Italian QB, who lives with his mom, and going back to a man who has his own place, Tyrod Taylor.
The Giants aren’t in the playoff hunt, so I’m not really sure what this accomplishes, but coach Brian Daboll said Taylor has “earned the right to start this game.”
The only Giants players I would feel vaguely comfortable starting with a fantasy championship on the line are Saquon Barkley (RB16) and Darren Waller (TE15).
➡️ Sam Howell > Jacoby Brissett
The Commanders, who haven’t won a game since the beginning of November, are also making a change at QB:
It’s hard to defend Sam Howell at this point—he’s been objectively bad this year—but I’m not sure it matters who the QB is for this team when they are facing the Jets and the Niners.
The Commanders are -13 point home dogs this week. Good luck.
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The fantasy season is winding down, but dynasty managers know there is no offseason.
In this quarterly series, Sam Wallace looks at players who experienced significant shifts in their dynasty values and what fantasy managers should do to stay ahead of their league.
📈 Stock Up: Rashee Rice, WR - Chiefs
Seeing a trend already? Another rookie makes his debut in our quarterly series after finally becoming a more integral part of the game plan.
Rashee Rice was drafted in Round 2 by the Chiefs, who are still trying to make up for the loss of Tyreek Hill. Our Rookie WR Model didn’t love Rice (No. 10), but Chris Allen highlighted just how versatile Rice was in college:
Taken over a two-year sample from PFF, Rice is one of four prospects with an above-average target per route run (TPRR) rate from the slot and out wide. He commanded targets regardless of alignment. Plus, he was efficient in both positions. Rice posted top-10 yards per route run (YPRR) marks within his class at each station. His 2.61 YPRR from the perimeter (10th) and 2.67 YPRR from the slot (6th) highlight his talent to contribute from Day 1.
It was an up-and-down start to the season for Rice. We regularly saw flashes of tantalizing upside but he only registered a 60%+ route participation twice through Week 11. However, starting in Week 12, the Chiefs finally realized what they had.
We’re finally seeing high-end route participation (78%), TPRR (29%), and target share (28%). Those are marks the fantasy managers like to see, especially when the team environment is so enticing.
Dwain noted the following in his Week 16 Utilization Report:
Things can change quickly in fantasy, and Rice has climbed from WR4 status into the WR1 conversation in just four games. He is locked into a top-two role in a pass-first offense without much target competition and an elite QB in Patrick Mahomes. This is a dream scenario for the rookie.
I’m providing a slightly broader horizon to show you Rice’s trajectory this season. He currently sits just inside the WR2 range with a dynasty ADP of WR24.
This is the case in point why taking swings on rookie WRs, especially those with Day 2 (or better) draft capital, is so critical.
Yes, sometimes you end up with Skyy Moore, but when you are patient with players like Rice, great things can happen. If I told you that your WR52 would be the WR24 in ADP in a few short months, would you be more patient?
Rice is the ideal buy-high candidate.
Yes, it’s going to cost you a decent chunk of change, but the upside is enormous.
We’ve seen flashes of brilliance thus far, and once Rice gets in a full season as a priority starter for the Chiefs, we’re looking at an annual top-15 option in fantasy.
More movements in the dynasty market…
The Fantasy Life FREE Bet Tracker is already loaded with a handful of plays for Thursday Night Football, and Matt LaMarca wrote a comprehensive breakdown of the best ways to attack this game. Looking for a peek behind the curtain? Check out the first leg of his TNF same-game parlay…
😆 Jaire Alexander is hilarious. He went rogue at captain and got suspended for it.
🔑 The keys to winning your fantasy championship? Trust these WRs.
🎲 Wait, could the Broncos actually make the playoffs? So you’re saying there’s a chance.
🔥 Will the Browns stay hot? Everything you need for the TNF betting and DFS showdown slate.
🏆 The entire fantasy football season has led up to this week. Prep for a championship-level performance with an all-star cast of analysts.
🙈 Don’t show the Swifties this. Does causation imply correlation?
🐬 Jaylen Waddle has a high ankle sprain. Will he play Sunday?
✍️ Your comprehensive guide to TNF. Start/Sits, projections, best bets, and more.
🍑 The golden age of the tush push. The new fantasy cheat code.
💥 Mike McDaniel fires shots at Dan Marino. You love to see it.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called “Freedman’s Favorites”. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding “No”. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 17…
🌟 Matthew Stafford (Rams) at Giants
- Rams: -5.5
- O/U: 42.5
- TT: 24
The Rams’ running game has been revitalized since the return of Kyren Williams in Week 12. Since then, Stafford has 1,388 yards and 14 TDs passing to just one INT in five games, all of which have seen the Rams score 28-plus points, and Stafford finish as a top-12 QB in fantasy.
The Giants are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (48.1%).
🌟 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs) vs. Bengals
- Chiefs: -7
- O/U: 44.5
- TT: 25.75
I feel gross even writing about Edwards-Helaire -- but No. 1 RB Isiah Pacheco (concussion) exited last week early with a head injury, and No. 2 RB Jerick McKinnon (groin, IR) is out. Hence, Edwards-Helaire.
When Pacheco was sidelined with a shoulder injury in Weeks 14-15, Edwards-Helaire put up 169 yards and a TD on 24 carries and eight targets with 15-plus opportunities in each game. That’ll do.
The Bengals are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (42.7%) and without impact DT D.J. Reader (quad, IR).
Pick up Edwards-Helaire if he’s available on waivers.
🌟 Stefon Diggs (Bills) vs. Patriots
- Bills: -12
- O/U: 41
- TT: 26.5
Since the team dismissed OC Ken Dorsey and promoted QBs coach Joe Brady to playcaller in Week 11, Diggs has just 23-202-1 receiving on 43 targets in five games.
In Weeks 1-10, he had 73-868-7 receiving on 102 targets (with a two-point conversion) in 10 games.
The move to Brady has probably benefited the team but not Diggs.
Still, he has a 30% target share since Week 10: the underlying usage remains elite.
And this is a “keep the faith” matchup: The Patriots lack a cover man with the ability to defend him, and in his eight games against them since joining the Bills in 2020, Diggs has 49-687-7 receiving on 75 targets (including playoffs).
🌟 Rashid Shaheed (Saints) at Buccaneers
- Saints: +3
- O/U: 42.5
- TT: 19.75
Shaheed is almost always undervalued relative to his upside. For his career, he has 11.1 yards per target and 8.5 yards per carry. He’s a consistent threat to break a big play.
This year, Shaheed has scored in four of 13 games (not counting his 76-yard punt return TD). In these games, he has averaged 99.3 yards receiving on six targets (vs. 27 yards on five targets in his scoreless contests). When Shaheed finds the endzone, he also discovers a whole lot of yardage.
He could hit paydirt this week against the Buccaneers, who are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.5). On the perimeter, they could be without CB Carlton Davis (concussion), and in the slot, Shaheed will have an advantageous matchup with undrafted rookie CB Christian Izien, who has allowed a 78.6% catch rate (per PFF). CB Steven Nelson, who has allowed 9.8 yards per target this year (per PFF).
🌟 Evan Engram (Jaguars) vs. Panthers
- Jaguars: -7.5
- O/U: 38
- TT: 22.75
After scoring zero TDs in Weeks 1-12, Engram has hit paydirt thrice and added 300 yards and 34 receptions on 42 targets in four games since Week 13, when WR Christian Kirk (groin, IR) suffered a season-ending injury.
Over the past two weeks, the Panthers have allowed 167 yards on 13 targets to Falcons and Packers TEs.
