Good morning to everyone skipping apple picking to watch football today...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Bud Light:
- Morning Download: Pete gets you caught up
- SNF: Our SNF Picks & Plays
- Eliot's favorite stack: Eagles/Cardinals
- An interesting prop bet for today
- Player Matchups: Rashaad Penny & Chris Godwin
- It’s 10/9. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
We don't have a single game today with a total over 50, but we still have six teams projected to score more than 25 points thanks to large spreads (Saints -5, Vikings -7.5, Jags -7.5, Eagles -5.5, Bucs -10.5, and Bills -14).
We're still waiting on a couple big pieces of news (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Julio Jones, Isaiah McKenize) that could shake up the slate and your fantasy lineups (more on that below).
Luckily, everything in this newsletter and at FantasyLife.com will help you make the most informed decisions. Make sure you take advantage of our tools on the site and follow our Twitter account for any late-breaking news updates:
- INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
- RANKINGS - Full Week 4 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain, Waz, and Hill.
- FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
- START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool and we'll tell you the best option:
Read on for everyone who is and isn't expected to play today...
🍺 Fantasy Life 🤝 Bud Light
📁 Will Amon-Ra St. Brown play?
This is a tricky one. Tom Pelissero tweeted out overnight that he is expected to play, while Adam Schefter reported that he is considered a game-time decision. Considering the Lions have a bye next week, it would seem wise to play it cautious with St. Brown, but you'll have to check our inactives page at 11:30 am ET for confirmation either way. Josh Reynolds would be another nice plug-and-play start if he misses.
📁 David Montgomery
Montgomery is set to return today vs. the Vikings after missing last week due to a knee injury. You should still expect a healthy dose of Khalil Herbert, but he is a decent start (Dwain's RB27) if you have him.
📁 Bucs WRs game-time decisions
The Bucs elevated two rookie receivers from the practice squad yesterday, indicating that at least one (if not both) Julio Jones and Russell Gage might miss today's game. This is one you'll need to keep an eye on when inactives are released. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be busy today, regardless.
📁 Rondale Moore pacing to play
Despite a knee injury that had him listed as questionable, Moore is expected to play vs. the Eagles today. This is a late game, so make sure you double-check before locking him in your lineups (and check out a fun DFS stack involving Moore below).
📁 Brian Robinson is back
In a truly incredible story, the Commanders' rookie RB will make his NFL debut today, just six weeks after being shot twice in his right leg. The team has said he'll be on a pitch count today, so don't start him quite yet, but he's a great stash. While we're here, TE Logan Thomas is considered a game-time decision for Washington.
📁 Tyquon Thornton to make his season debut
This is great news for the Patriots, who desperately need some speed and playmaking on the outside. I'd stash him if you have space on your bench. 2022 has been the year of the rookie WR breakout, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Thornton follow suit.
📁 Treylon Burks heads to I.R.
The Titans placed their rookie WR on injured reserve due to turf toe, which means he'll miss at least four weeks. Sadly, you can cut him in most leagues if you don't have a winning record and need the spot to churn. Per our rankings, Robert Woods should see a little bump, but he's still just a WR4.
📁 Raiders get healthy
Hunter Renfrow is finally off the injury report, and Darren Waller does not carry an injury designation. They'll need all the help they can get for their MNF date with the Chiefs.
☄️ Can this QB keep his absurd streak alive today? Pretty impressive.
🤔 Could Dak return next week? He's progressing well since surgery.
💪 I cannot wait to watch this big fella in the NFL. What an absolute unit.
🐬 This QB is bridging the gap to value. Stack this team in DFS, and do it now.
💸 The best prop bet for Week 5. Great call here.
🔨 He's basically like Derrick Henry from a couple of years ago. Find out why you need to start this RB in DFS today.
🙏🏽 Pray for the Chargers. Sketchy road trip.
📋 The NFL's concussion protocols are changing. Here's the latest.
👋 Antonio Brown really needs to log off. Let's not throw stones from glass houses.
When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...
🚀Jalen Hurts > A.J. Brown & Dallas Goedert (Bring Back: Rondale Moore)
Despite not being top 20 in second-half fantasy points, Jalen Hurts is the QB3 on the season. Once he is forced to play a complete game, he will break the slate.
Hurts has averaged the most yards per attempt (9.1) while also leading the NFL in red-zone rushing attempts. Even with three top-4 QB performances, we haven’t seen his fantasy ceiling yet. I love his over 246.5 passing yards on BetMGM.
A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert will help Hurts reach his ceiling this week. Brown has seen an elite workload, with 51% of the team's air yards and 32% of the targets. He's been particularly dominant in two areas - deep targets and yards after the catch.
Brown is averaging 46 yards per catch on passes of 20+ yards, which is third-best among receivers with at least 5 deep targets. He also averages 6.8 yards after contact per reception, the sixth-most among qualifying receivers. The Cardinals have allowed the most yards after contact to receivers this season while ranking dead last in explosive pass rate allowed. Good luck to the brave souls trying to cover Brown today. He's an easy over bet at 73.5 receiving yards.
Struggling to cover yards after contact will be an issue for stopping Dallas Goedert, too. He has the second-most yards after contact of any player. Unfortunately for Cardinals' fans, their team ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
The Eagles' defense has been good this year.
They're first in pass EPA and second in rush EPA. So, trying to predict a high-scoring environment means looking for a runback candidate is critical.
Rondale Moore made his season debut last week, earning 5 targets with a 10.4 aDot. Despite his excellent usage, he relegated Greg Dortch to the bench, and Moore’s price tag has not gone up. He is the perfect cheap exposure for an expensive Eagles stack.
Oh baby, this is going to be a fun one. The Ravens host the Bengals as 3.5-point home favorites in this divisional shootout with a rock solid 47.5 over/under.
The Bengals enter the game fully healthy, while the Ravens will be without WR Rashod Bateman (foot) and RB Justice Hill (hamstring). Still, this game has plenty of firepower, with a handful of players capable of popping off for monster games.
Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective: All odds via BetMGM...
Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...
🥶 Rashaad Penny @ NO
With one of the lower implied team scores of the week at 19.5 points, the Seahawks are just one week removed from their 48-point outburst against the Lions. I mean, who DOESN’T score against the Lions?
(Bonus player matchup: start any breathing Patriots RB against the Lions this week!)
We come from the Lions in Week 4, fantasy football’s turnstile, to the Saints in Week 5, who have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season.
Before last week, Rashaad Penny had just been a middling fantasy RB, posting no higher than RB36 numbers before finishing as the RB4 with 157 total yards and two touchdowns.
Can we trust Penny to deliver against one of the top defenses in the league?
I’m pumping the brakes here on Penny. He has been very efficient running the ball this season with 5.9 yards per carry and the seventh-highest fantasy points over expectation among RBs per PFF, which objectively is great.
I’m just concerned about having to depend on Penny in a game that looks like a negative game script, coupled with the lack of a receiving role. He has just five targets through four games.
His receiving usage makes him very dependent on rushing volume and touchdowns. Penny has run at least 50% of routes per dropback over the last two weeks, but until he earns targets, those routes percentages don’t matter.
Count me out this week.
🥵️ Chris Godwin vs. ATL
If you drafted Chris Godwin in the middle rounds, you’ve been waiting for this.
Godwin missed a few weeks with a hamstring injury right after coming back from an end-of-2021 ACL tear, but he was back in Week 4, running 85% of routes per dropback and earning 20% of the team’s targets. You love to see it.
But expect MORE in Week 5.
Godwin has a prime matchup against the Falcons. They've given up the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs this season. And with Mike Evans slated to see a lot of top corner A.J. Terrell, Godwin and his 84% slot snap rate (per PFF) should see a ton of rookie corner Dee Alford.
The Buccaneers' offense looked back in prime form with their full complement of top pass-catchers active. While nobody is expecting the Buccaneers to pass the ball 89.9% of the time as they did in Week 4, expect a ton of fantasy production from Godwin in Week 5.
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