Kyle Pitts is done for the year. Don't cry because it's over, cry because it happened...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Solgaard:
- 4 revenge games to watch out for
- Week 13: Rankings & Tiers
- The star WR set to return Sunday
- TNF: Fantasy & Betting Picks
- Bets from the group chat: Stevenson SZN
- It's 12/1. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
Sure, we love the numbers and analytics around here, but let's be honest...there's nothing better than a good narrative to latch onto when setting our lineups.
And of all the narratives (breakfast narrative, birthday narratives, etc.), none is more tantalizing than the REVENGE NARRATIVE.
This weekend we have four juicy ones to sink our teeth into as multiple players square off against their former teams:
👿 A.J. Brown vs. the Titans
Brown hasn't been shy in letting people know that he was upset with the Titans for trading him to the Eagles in return for the 18th overall pick in the 2022 draft. It didn't help that the Titans immediately used the pick on a younger AJB prototype in Treylon Burks.
Now, the 10-1 Eagles will host the visiting Titans as 5.5-point favorites in a game where Brown will undoubtedly be fired up to make a statement. He's currently our WR9 on the week.
Pray for the Tennessee Titans.
Nothings wrong with them, they just have to guard AJ Brown this Sunday.
— Kendall Beck (@KBeckEagles)
Nov 30, 2022
👿 Jeff Wilson Jr., Raheem Mostert & Mike McDaniels vs. the Niners
With Eli Mitchell out for the year and CMC (knee) missing practice yesterday, it's a cruel coincidence that the depleted Niners will face off against the three guys who used to occupy their RB room:
- McDaniel (former run-game and offensive coordinator for SF)
- Mostert (left SF for the Dolphins in free agency)
- Wilson Jr. (traded to the Dolphins from SF)
Tyler Dunne spoke with both former Niners RBs in advance of this game, and they had no problem tossing some shade at their former team:
“We have way better talent here. It’s going to get spooky.”
“We have a quarterback who can actually sling it.”
Oh, baby. The Dolphins are 4-point road underdogs, and the Niners have a great run defense, but you know McDaniel and co. will be looking to run it down their throat on Sunday.
👿 D.J. Chark vs. the Jags
Chark had a big 2019 with the Jags (1,008 yards and 8 TDs), but poor QB play and injuries derailed the rest of his time in Jacksonville. Now, fully healthy and on the Lions, he'll get a chance for revenge on Sunday in a game with legitimate shootout potential (51.5 over/under).
Chark candidly spoke this offseason about the dysfunction in Jacksonville under Urban Meyer:
I spoke to DJ Chark after practice today and he said there’s a “night and day” difference in the professionalism with the Lions organization compared to his last season with the Jaguars.
“It’s no games. It’s no gimmicks. You just come in and do your work.”
— Kory Woods (@KoryEWoods)
Jul 28, 2022
We don't have an aggressive ranking on Chark (Dwain's WR68), but you could do worse on a dart throw in a good game environment vs. a mediocre Jags secondary. He's cheap on DraftKings ($3800) this week, too.
👿 Texans vs. Deshaun Watson
I don't ask for much, but the Texans beating the Browns in Watson's debut would be glorious. We deserve it.
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions, and Dwain has you covered with in-depth player tiers, rankings, and analysis. Here are a few of his favorites for Week 13:
Quarterback
🥉 Tier 3 – Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence has a top-10 finish in five of his last six games and is averaging 19.5 points.
The second-year QB has the sixth-best PFF passing grade (90.3) over the last five weeks, leading the league in completion percentage (72.7%). He has registered the fifth-highest big-time throw rate (6.5%).
He has found multiple weapons to get involved outside Christian Kirk, with Zay Jones being the latest to deliver. Jones has 19 receptions for 203 yards in the last two outings. We could be witnessing the maturation of the former No. 1 overall NFL draft pick.
And even if we aren’t, he gets a plush matchup against the Lions, where it will be hard to fail. Detroit owns PFF’s fourth-worst graded coverage unit, and the Jaguars have a gaudy top-four team total.
Lawrence is a SMASH low-end QB1 in Week 13.
Running Back
🥇 Tier 1 – Nick Chubb
Chubb hasn’t had a fantasy blowup game since Week 1, but he continues to play the position as efficiently as any other back in the NFL. He ranks highly in rushing metrics compared to 50 other RBs with at least 50 attempts.
He continues to share time with Kareem Hunt, but he averages 60% of the carries on the season, and he gets 69% of the work inside the five-yard line. And in a new development, he has taken on more responsibilities in the two-minute offense over the last two games, with 70% and 50%.
The Browns primarily attack defenses through Amari Cooper, David Njoku and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Still, the new role could lead to additional fantasy points for Chubb in the right game script, which helps insulate his value in trailing game scripts.
The superstar RB faces the Texans – the third-worst PFF run defense (36.8) – who allow the most non-overtime rushing attempts per game (33.8). The Browns are seven-point favorites, which sets up well for a run-heavy attack.
This setup has slate-breaking upside similar to what we have seen Derrick Henry provide against Houston. Can anyone say 200 yards and 2 TDs? It may sound silly, but it is in the range of outcomes this weekend.
Chubb is a top-three SMASH play in Week 13.
🥈 Tier 2 – Aaron Jones
Since Week 5, the Packers have fed Jones 57% or more of the rushing attempts in six out of eight games. In those games, Jones averaged 18.7 fantasy points.
The veteran back also consistently leads the way in route participation as the preferred long-down-distance and two-minute offense option. Early in the season, we saw A.J. Dillon more involved, but since Week 4, he has only eclipsed the 50% snap share once.
Jones owns the No. 2 PFF rushing grade (90.7) and is No. 5 in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29).
The Bears have the worst PFF run grade (30.6) and allow 30.8 attempts per contest in non-overtime play – the second-most.
Jones is a SMASH play and is due for a big performance.
🥉 Tier 3 – Dameon Pierce
Pierce was a downgrade in this week’s Utilization Report after losing the passing-down work and ceding touches to Dare Ogunbowale once Week 12’s game was out of hand. However, he picks up a great matchup against the second-lowest PFF run defense against the Browns.
The rookie’s last two weeks have been rough, with two finishes outside the top-40 RBs. However, he should still be in line for the majority of rushing attempts as long as the game doesn’t turn into a complete blowout. Pierce averaged 16.6 rushing attempts in games where Houston trailed four-plus points on over 50% of their snaps before Week 12 (five attempts).
Pierce is a boom-bust low-end RB2, but consensus rankings are slightly over-adjusting.
Check out all of the Fantasy Life Rankings!
🚀 The injured WR set to return. He sounds fired up & ready to go.
🚑 Kyle Pitts is officially done for the year. Trust the process??
❗ We've seen what this RB can do given the opportunity. Don't miss out again.
🎉 More Russell Wilson drama. Who got the invite?
😵 2 Elite defenses going h2h tonight. Find out how this impacts DFS.
🎥 Hollywood is back! How much will it help, though?
🍳 Let this QB cook. This is egregious.
👑 In the land of the TEs...there is only one king.
🤕 Things aren't looking good for this RB. Tough matchup + bad efficiency.
It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Bills @ Patriots, take it away, Geoff...
📺 Bills at Patriots (+3.5) – 43.5 total
We have a key AFC East showdown on Thursday night when the Bills travel to Foxborough to square off against the Patriots. With all four teams in playoff contention, this divisional matchup is crucial, and we should expect both teams to game plan accordingly.
The Bills are still one of the betting favorites for the Super Bowl, but some cracks have started to appear since their Week 7 bye.
Don’t get me wrong, plenty of teams would love to have the Bills’ offensive production and record over the past five weeks, but for one of the NFL’s elite offenses, this is a worrying trend.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have won three of their last four and are hanging around in one of the league’s toughest divisions thanks to the strength of their defense. The one fantasy-relevant injury is on the New England side, with Damien Harris expected to miss this game. His absence makes Rhamondre Stevenson a top-12 option yet again this week.
Apart from the every-week studs like Stevenson, Josh Allen, and Stefon Diggs, I’m not desperate to start too many players in this matchup. The likes of Devin Singletary, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, and Jakobi Meyers are all startable options. Still, I would prefer to avoid going all-in on a short-week divisional clash that seems unlikely to end in a shoot-out.
💰 Not sure if you missed it, but we just launched our new Game Hub!
We have preveiws like this for every game, along with matchup stats, betting picks and more!
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Jordan came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM
🔥 Rhamondre Stevenson Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
Bettable until: 38.5 yards -115
It is once again Stevenson SZN, and this is a flow chart event for me.
- If Damien Harris is out>
- Then betting overs for Stevenson = 💰
Complex math aside...Stevenson has shown a massive upside while Harris is out of the lineup. In Week 12 that upside potential surfaced, as he had a 29% target share and a 37% target per route run rate, up from his year-to-date averages of 29% and 37%. Oh yeah, he also put up an impressive receiving line of 76 yards, while catching 9 out of his 10 total targets.
At Fantasy Life, we have him projected for 41.8 receiving yards, making this bet one of our biggest edges of the night.
🔥 Rhamondre Stevenson Over 4.5 Receptions
Bettable until: 4.5 Receptions -130
When 2 bettors in our group chat are on the same player, good things tend to happen.
Tonight, one of Matt LaMarca's favorite bets is Stevenson Over 4.5 Receptions.
Here's what he has to say:
"The Patriots went pass-heavy last week, and they could be forced to throw more than usual vs. the Bills. Stevenson is their clear top pass-catcher out of the backfield, racking up at least six catches in four of his past five games."
Cracked the hell up at this @UnderdogFantasy
— Nez (@NEZtakes)
Nov 30, 2022
