👀 4 Players Return to Action

by Peter Overzet

1 year ago

Having eyes in the back of your head is a cool superpower for a WR...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Noom:

Three key players return from injury.
Utilization Report. Surging RBs.
Premier Matchup. Mike White returns.
Playoff Best Ball Strategy. Remember the chaos.
Marcas & Dwain are here to help you win.
Noah Fant trending up?
It's 12/28. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...

In Week 16, we had multiple key fantasy players return from injury. Let's take a look at their utilization and get a feel for what we can expect from them in Week 17.

After Taylor Heinicke threw back-to-back INTs on one-play drives, Wentz took over for the final two possessions of the game. Wentz nearly matched Heinicke’s output, registering 12 completions for 123 yards and a TD on 16 passing attempts.

On Wednesday morning, news broke that Wentz has been named the starter for Week 17. Over the first six games, Wentz was the quintessential boom-bust performer with finishes of QB3, QB6, QB28, QB30, QB5, and QB29.

Commanders’ QB Carson Wentz will start Sunday vs. Cleveland.
Wentz broke his right ring finger in October, and later lost the starting job to Taylor Heinicke.
The Commanders are 7-7-1, clinging to the NFC’s seventh and final playoff spot, and need Wentz to come through.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Dec 28, 2022

The veteran is a mid-range QB2 option against the Browns in Week 17. For more on how Wentz might impact a key WR, read on to the Utilization Report.

Herbert has averaged 26% of the Bears’ rushing attempts in games with David Montgomery this season, which was in line with his performance in Week 16 (23%). The second-year back finished the game with a 41% snap share vs. 68% for Montgomery.

The Bears are a run-first team, preferring to pound the rock in all game-script scenarios, which makes Herbert an 8 to 12 opportunity back in a nice matchup against Detroit in Week 17.

Herbert is a boom-bust RB3 option for fantasy championship weekend.

Sutton returned from a two-game absence following a hamstring injury and finished second on the team in route participation (88%) and target share (22%), delivering 11.4 fantasy points.

In eight games with a healthy Jerry Jeudy, Sutton averaged 10.0 fantasy points per contest with a season-high of 17.7 points. Jeudy averages 13.6 over that span.

Sutton is a mid-range WR4 in a struggling Broncos offense that fired Nathaniel Hackett on Monday.

Goedert rejoined the Eagles after missing the previous five contests. He returned to his normal route participation (88%) but registered a season-low 9% target share.

The fifth-year TE has a talent profile that mirrors the top talents in the league, but he plays with two high-end WRs in an offense that is willing to stay balanced with their rushing attack.

Goedert is a mid-range TE1 with upside.

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Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.

Akers was dismissed by most fantasy managers after a tumultuous start to the season. However, over the last four games, he has taken over as the primary option for the Rams, with 65% of the rushing attempts. That has led to RB8, RB21, RB21, and RB1 finishes.

His utilization looks great over the last two games.

The third-year RB rarely plays on passing downs, and the trend continued in Week 16, with only 14% of the long-down and distance opportunities. However, his route participation eclipsed 60% in back-to-back games.

With the Rams hurting for passing targets, they are getting their RBs into routes on early downs. Additionally, Akers continues to dominate the short-yardage situations (88%) that have led to high-leverage touches near the goal line. The third-year back has five rushing TDs on carries inside the five-yard line over the last four weeks.

Akers is a low-end RB2 with upside and has a juicy matchup against the Chargers in Week 17.

Allgeier leads the Falcons’ backfield in snaps (54%) and rushing attempts (49%) over the last two games. In Week 16, he registered a season-high 23 opportunities with 18 rushing attempts and five targets.

Not only is the rookie getting more work, but he has turned things around in the efficiency department as well.

Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.25 (0.17 NFL average)
Average yards after contact: 3.52 (2.94 NFL average)

Cordarrelle Patterson remains involved, but with the Falcons eliminated from the playoffs, there isn’t much incentive to put him at risk with a year remaining on his two-year deal.

Allgeier is a low-end RB2 with RB1 upside in a Week 17 matchup against the Cardinals.

Zach Wilson was benched in Week 16 and the team declared Mike White their starter for Week 17.

Garrett Wilson averaged 8.9 points in eight contests with Wilson under center – a far cry from his 19.3 points per game during the six weeks with White or Joe Flacco. The 2022 first-rounder averaged 9.7 targets, six receptions, 91.5 yards, and 0.7 TDs receiving without his namesake under center. He has been the Jets' clear target share (23%) and YPRR (2.28) leader in those games.

Wilson is a low-end WR1 heading into championship weekend against the Seahawks.

In the last two games without Deebo Samuel, Kittle has dominated with TE1 and TE3 finishes. He and Brandon Aiyuk are tied for the team lead with a 26% target share, and the explosive TE has 10 receptions on 11 targets for 213 yards and four TDs.

The veteran TE led the team in air yards (43%), end zone targets (100%) and third and fourth down targets (43%) in Week 16. So far, Kittle is Brock Purdy's favorite target, and he is thriving against linebackers and safeties who struggle to match his athleticism and physicality.

Kittle is a top-two TE as long as Samuel is out.

Engram leads all Jaguars pass catchers with a mouth-watering 28% target share and 2.70 YPRR over the last four games. He has finishes of TE4, TE1, TE6, and TE5 during that stretch, averaging 21.4 points per game — including an 18.3-point performance against a tough Jets secondary.

The emergence of Trevor Lawrence means multiple Jacksonville weapons can come through on a weekly basis. The passing tree has consolidated into three primary options: Engram, Christian Kirk, and Zay Jones.

Engram is a mid-range TE1 with upside.

We witnessed an eight-game stretch from Week 6 to Week 12 where Jones hovered around 60% of the rushing attempts. However, that has come to an end, with the veteran accounting for 29%, 49%, and 29% over the last three games. Injuries reduced his role in Week 13, but he benefited from a late A.J. Dillon concussion in Week 15.

Additionally, we saw Jones deliver a season-low 26% route participation in Week 16 against the Dolphins. Dillon led the way in LDD situations (58%) and handled all three of the two-minute offense opportunities.

The Packers are in must-win mode to keep their playoff hopes alive, but it is hard to predict how they will split up their backfield moving forward.

Jones is a boom-bust RB2 heading into Week 17.

We only saw Carson Wentz for two drives at the end of the game, but an old trend immediately reared its ugly head – McLaurin was only targeted one time on 16 passing attempts.

Since Week 7, when Taylor Heinicke took over, McLaurin was among the league leaders in target share (29%) and YPRR (2.63). However, with Wentz, the fourth-year WR plummets to a 16% target share and a 1.44 YPRR.

McLaurin downgrades from a mid-range WR2 to a boom-bust WR3 option.

📋 He has the credentials. But he might not win the MVP.

📈 Noah Fant could be a full-time player in Week 17. Will Dissly is headed to IR.

🐐 It's Tyler Allgeier week. The goat loves him too.

🏆 Could he set the receiving yardage record? This feels doable.

💪 J.J. Watt announces he will retire. One of the best ever.

⚡️ We haven't had a 27-plus-year-old RB1 since 2007. He is about to do it.

☀️ Why is this stadium built this way? Close the curtains, Jerry.

📺 Get ready for your championship matchups. We have you covered!

😤 He's about to go back-to-back-to-back. Really impressive stuff for this QB.

Each week we'll feature a premiere matchup on the slate and break it down from all angles. Today, Fantasy Life contributor Chris Allen tackles the tilt between the Seahawks and Jets.

I’m fascinated by this game for multiple reasons. A win for either team puts them back in the playoff picture. So, the short-term impacts are obvious. But let’s look toward the offseason. The optimistic vibes from Seattle during the midseason are starting to dwindle. Meanwhile, we’ve got the Jets making their third (fourth? Wait, fifth?) quarterback change.

Both teams could use a positive bump as the regular season nears its finale. At least New York is doing all they can to position themselves to go down swinging.

After last Thursday night, Mike White taking over as the starter was all but inevitable. In Zach Wilson’s two starts after taking over for White, his 60.9% on-target rate from a clean pocket was 33rd amongst all passers. But most of us weren’t looking to start a Jets’ quarterback in this game.

If you are, I’m sorry.

Regardless, it’s more about what White brings to the players attached to the offense.

The Jets’ PROE did tick down from -1% to -5% with Wilson under center. But such a shift shouldn’t equate to nearly 20.0% cuts in their yards per drive and plays per game. White lifts the floor for the offense with his pass-catching options averaging 17.3 yards after the catch over his three starts. It might be tough to trust the receivers after consecutive duds, but a matchup against Seattle should give us a bit more hope.

Garrett Wilson has led the team in routes, targets, and yards over the last two weeks. So even after the poor results in Week 16, the rookie should stay in your starting lineup. Travis Kelce’s 113-yard day against the Seahawks might funnel folks to Tyler Conklin or CJ Uzomah. But they’re not running routes like Kelce. Or George Kittle, for that matter. Wilson is a top-24 receiver with WR1 upside, but the Jets’ running game will also be a factor. The only problem is it’s tough to decide who to start.

Zonovan Knight remained the early-down workhorse in their Week 16 loss, but Michael Carter mixed in on 66.7% of the third down snaps and took half of the two-minute touches. Carter’s receiving usage (11 targets since Week 15) makes him more favorable in PPR leagues, especially against a defense allowing 38.5 YPG to RBs since their bye. However, with the touch gap closing over the last few weeks, both are low-end RB2s in Week 17.

I thought Geno Smith had a chance to pull off the upset, but I forgot how important Tyler Lockett was to the offense. And no, I’m not talking about the toe-dragging shows he puts on in the red zone (although one or two of those would’ve been nice). I mean his ability to keep the offense on schedule. Seattle could barely make it to Kansas City’s 20-yard line without him.

Since the Seahawks’ Week 11 bye, Lockett and DK Metcalf had the same number of targets on third down. And of Smith’s 15 third-down conversions, Lockett was responsible for six of them. It’s tough to ask an injured Marquise Goodwin to replicate the same skill at creating separation in a pure-passing situation. Lockett’s got a shot to play this week, but let’s hope Shane Waldron was taking notes on Thursday so he can feature another of his offensive weapons.

The plan for the Jaguars was simple. Just get the ball in Evan Engram’s hands. Luckily, Noah Fant has played a similar role. He came into Week 16 with two missed practices, so without any in-game setbacks, Fant is a high-end streaming option for Week 17. But let’s not forget Kenneth Walker III.

The rookie RB was also on the injury report for most of the week but still cracked the century mark for the fourth time this season. Walker handled 75.0% of the short-distance totes and worked alongside DeeJay Dallas on 42.9% of the two-minute work. Even with Quinnen Williams back, the Jets were 23rd in rushing EPA allowed last Thursday. Despite the lack of passing work, Walker remains a mid-range RB2 in Week 17.

Playoff best ball is BACK, and Jonathan is here to break down the strategies that you need to know!

Playoff best ball is a fantastic game that packs all of the draft strategy, game theory, and player evaluation of season-long best ball into the NFL playoffs. There are a variety of different contests available from many of the major fantasy platforms. Today we are going to primarily focus on the contests offered by Underdog Fantasy, but a lot of these strategy lessons apply to other formats as well.

The first and most important step to winning in playoff best ball is to understand your contest format. The contests on Underdog involve drafting a 10-player roster in a 6-team draft with a knockout structure that eliminates teams in each round of the NFL playoffs. For example, in the Gauntlet contest, you have to win your group (6 teams Rd 1-2, 8 teams Rd 3) in each round to advance. Other sites may use different formats such as cumulative scoring or multipliers for each round, be sure to read and understand the rules to make sure you are playing optimally.

On Underdog, we have to fill a 5-player starting roster each week consisting of 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR/TE, and 1 FLEX. These contests are top-heavy tournaments with the majority of prize money going to just a few teams. This means we need to make sure we are thinking about potential Super Bowl matchups and drafting teams that actually have a path to fielding a full roster when the big money is won. In practice, this means balancing exposures to each conference, thinking through playoff probabilities, potential matchups, and ADP values to build teams that can survive and advance through multiple rounds. Now let’s take a closer look at the concepts that will help us achieve this.

If you were with us through hot best ball summer you are familiar with the concept of roster construction. In addition to thinking about how many players to draft at each position, we also have to pay attention to how many players from each team and each conference we are drafting.

Since we know there will only be one team left from each conference it wouldn’t make sense to take 8 AFC players from 4 different teams. My general rule is to take 4-6 players from each conference, split across 1-3 teams in each conference.

I also always want to make sure I have at least 6 players who are playing in Round 1 of the playoffs so that my team has a shot at advancing.

Positionally, you want to draft 1-2 QBs, 2-3 RBs, and 5-7 WRs depending on your approach to each draft.

The only major mistake you can make while sticking to these guidelines would be drafting one QB and having them be on bye in Round 1. So if you are drafting before playoff seeding is set, you need to be aware of the potential seeding scenarios.

While the Eagles are close to a lock for a first-round bye in the NFC, the Chiefs and the Bills are coming down to the wire in the AFC. If you are fortunate enough to draft Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, you need to give serious thought to whether or not you draft a second QB. I like to take risks when drafting before we know the full playoff picture, but it wouldn’t be wrong to take a second QB until we know who has the bye.

I have drafted every variety of team from 5-5 (5 players from one NFC team, 5 players from one AFC team) to 4-2-2-2 (4 players from one team, then two players from three separate teams in the other conference) and everything in between.

Part of the fun of these contests is coming up with unique team structures that could pay off in different scenarios. It may seem tempting to just draft Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles players, but we must remember the chaos of the NFL. Just last season, the Super Bowl featured the #4 seeds from each conference. If the 2022 season ended today, that would be the Buccaneers and Jaguars, which is not a matchup I have heard anyone predict.

I'll be back later this week to chat about stacking and more! See you in those drafts!

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