Itās officially āThis TE will be used as a WRā offseason sznā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
- Four players who were better in best ball last season
- NFL schedule release content is humming
- Fantasy Life Team Preview: Dallas Cowboys
- Best Ball Mania IV: Hunting For Value & Targeting Rookies
- Itās 5/9. Take it away, Ian Hartitzā¦
āBetter in best ballā players feature guys who provide plenty of booms (yay!) to make up for their busts (boo!), with fantasy managers not needing to worry about when to start them thanks to the b-e-a-utiful nature of the American pastime known as best ball.
The following four players put forward at least a handful of truly elite fantasy performances to make up for their down weeks last season, yet donāt cost top-50 fantasy draft capital to acquire ahead of 2023.
š Vikings QB Kirk Cousins
Underdog ADP: QB14 (99.3)
On the one hand, Cousins boomed with five top-six fantasy performances last season ā more than anyone other than Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes.
On the other hand, Cousins posted five finishes outside of the weekās top-18 QBs; those aforementioned top-four signal-callers combined for just two-such performances in 2022.
Only Mahomes (25) and Tom Brady (20) have more games with 300-plus passing yards and three-plus passing TDs than Cousins (15) since he joined the Vikings in 2018. While the lack of a rushing floor leaves room for duds, itās rare to see too many weeks go by without Justin Jefferson and company going off in a major way.
š¦ Cardinals RB James Conner
Underdog ADP: RB26 (82.4)
Conner was one of just 13 RBs to post five-plus finishes as a top-12 PPR RB in 2022.
Only Ekeler (10) and Davante Adams (8) have more multi-TD games over the past two seasons than Conner (7). The man has been putting up some NUMBERS in Zona.
Of course, Connerās rather brutal offensive environment has led to his ADP crashing down into RB3 range. Kyler Murrayās (knee) 2023 outlook is murky; itās fair to refrain from firing the veteran up as the top-12 option heās been.
Still, the 28-year-old talent stands out as one of the key veteran winners from the draft and should have enough volume to still put together the occasional boom week.
š Jaguars WR Zay Jones
Underdog ADP: WR57 (127.9)
Jones finished among his positionās top-12 PPR scorers on a whopping four occasions last season. Some notable WRs who didnāt achieve that feat:
- Mike Evans
- Chris Olave
- D.K. Metcalf
- Terry McLaurin
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Chris Godwin
- Tyler Lockett
- Deebo Samuel
Yes, the Jaguars added Calvin Ridley to the equation. Also, yes, itās not a guarantee that Jones is instantly relegated to a clear-cut No. 3 option. Marvin Jones is back in Detroit, and Christian Kirk held a modest 133 to 121 target lead over Jones in last yearās regular season.
Itās possible this WR room is more of a three-headed monster than purely the Ridley and Kirk show; Jones is easily the cheapest full-time piece of an ascending Jaguars passing game.
āļø 49ers TE George Kittle
Underdog ADP: TE4 (52.9)
Kittle nearly had as many weeks as the PPR TE20 or worse (5) as he did inside the top five (6).
Nobody is doubting Kittleās ability to put up big-time numbers ā the problem is volume.
The 49ers put forward the following target distribution in five games with Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel both fully healthy:
- Samuel: 34 targets
- Brandon Aiyuk: 26
- Christian McCaffrey: 26
- George Kittle: 21
- Jauan Jennings: 15
The 29-year-old TE ended his 2022 regular season with 4-93-2, 6-120-2, 4-23-1 and 4-29-2 receiving lines; just realize he finished with under 30-scoreless yards in four of his five previous performances.
Betting on Kittle in best ball allows fantasy managers to simply enjoy the good times while not crying over middling usage the rest of the year. Not a bad deal!
š¤ Two Options Are Better Than One
Except when it comes to holding defenses on your Fantasy Football roster...
Last week, we told you all about Underdog Fantasy's release of Best Ball Mania IV (BBM4), their largest best ball tournament ever with a $25 buy-in.
Well, they weren't done there.
That's why they rolled out The Puppy, an additional best ball tournament with a $5 entry fee and $500,000 in total prizes!
But why would they need ANOTHER tournament? Because two options are better than one.
Need we remind you?
- Drafts, drafts, and more DRAFTS!
- No in-season team management
- Oh yeah, and only a $5 (!!) buy-in!
With such a low entry fee, you can still sip on your $7 latte without sacrificing your drafts, but don't wait any longer, as the Puppy is already nearly 30% filled!
Get your 100% deposit match of up to $100 and start drafting today!
Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months with a focus on the fantasy outlooks for all involved parties. The series kicks off with Americaās Team, who once again look a lot like one of the leagueās better overall offenses.
ā QB: Dak Prescott (Ianās QB11), Cooper Rush (QB50)
Death, taxes: Prescott putting up good to great fantasy production.
- 2016: 17.9 fantasy points per game (QB9)
- 2017: 16.3 (QB14)
- 2018: 17.9 (QB13)
- 2019: 21.1 (QB3)
- 2020: 26.9 (QB1)
- 2021: 20 (QB8)
- 2022: 16.6 (QB14)
However, the highs of 2020 and 2021 havenāt been replicated over the past two seasons, in large part due to the reality that Prescott hasnāt been quite so willing to run following his ankle break.
Overall, Prescott has posted back-to-back career-low marks in rushing yards per game (9.1, 15.2) while accounting for just two rushing scores since 2021 ā he had 24 rushing TDs from 2016 to 2020.
Dak averaged four fantasy points per game from purely rushing production before his devastating 2020 injury, but just 1.6 after. Perhaps the upward trend from 2022 persists, but historically QBs do run less as they get older (makes sense).
High-volume dual-threat QBs like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts join receiving RBs as the closest things that fantasy football has to cheat codes; that hasnāt been Prescottās game over the past two seasons.
Heāll be 30 in July and facing life inside of an offense wanting to run the ball more than ever. Itās far from a guarantee that Prescottās 2022 status as the QB12 in expected fantasy points per game improves for the better.
Perhaps PFFās reigning 12th-ranked offensive line and skill-position additions are enough to help Prescott post top-tier efficiency numbers as a passer, but he simply wasnāt that guy in 2022.
- Completion percentage over expected: 0% (18th among qualified QBs)
- Yards per attempt: 7.3 (13th)
- QBR: 58.3 (12th)
- EPA per dropback: +0.15 (9th)
The discrepancy between fantasyās QB1-6 and QB7-12 bucket was a decade-high 4.9 fantasy points per game in 2022, while the industry has done an excellent job identifying the positionās most fantasy-friendly options in terms of preseason ADP meeting end-of-season finishes.
Drafting the positionās dual-threat aliens in the second or third round is warranted ā but itās risky business to accordingly raise the ADP of the positionās less fantasy-friendly talents occupying the middle rounds.
Iām basically in line with Prescottās current Underdog ADP (QB10); itās his status as the 82nd player off the board that draws a pause. Donāt overestimate our ability to discern the fantasy difference between pocket-passer types; Iād rather draft guys like Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, and Jordan Love four-plus rounds later when not accounting for a best-ball stack.
Click here for the complete Cowboys team preview
šæ NFL schedule releases might as well be the Super Bowl for NFL social media teams. Great content from Mina Kimes.
š TEs rarely ever turn into de facto big-slot WRs. But maybe this time is different.
š¶ The Browns are looking to switch up their dog logo. Their finalists feature some good boys.
š£ Itās hype season. Are you buying it?
š¢ Ryan Tannehill is the Titans starting QB. But could a slow start change that?
š Offseason hand and labrum surgeries are never good news. At least this second-year RB is making progress.
ā” Another offseason, another hype train for a former first-round WR. Is this the year?!
š¤ The 49ersā QB situation will be analyzed all the way up to Week 1. RapSheet has thoughts.
š¦ The NFL schedule has several general updates. Thanksgiving week is about to be more lit than ever.
Best ball season is in full swing, and Pete Overzet is here to get you caught up to speed so you can dive into draftingā¦It doesnāt matter if youāre drafting BBMIV teams, or The Puppy, we have you covered.
š Best Ball Mania IV: Hunting For Value & Targeting Rookies
Underdogās Best Ball Mania IVāthe largest season-long fantasy football contest of all timeāis already over 5% full. 37,000+ entries have already been drafted in the contest as best ball sickos chase the massive $3,000,000 top prize.
Throughout the offseason, the specific edges we can attack in this tournament are going to change. Right now, we still do not have the NFL scheduleāwhich means we currently canāt worry about optimizing for the fantasy playoffs.
That said, there are still edges we can attack. The current edge in this contest is targeting the players whose ADP (average draft position) is likely to rise between now and when the contest fills closer to the start of the season.
Today, Iām going to explain why accumulating value in drafts is paramount, some current players to target, and when to pump the brakes on chasing players up the board.
ICYMI: last week, we dissected the structure of the BBMIV tournament and things you should know before drafting.
š ADP Value: Real Time & Closing Line
Every player in the pool has an ADP that is set by the market. This data is very efficient because it is an average of where a player is drafted across thousands and thousands of drafts. If we assume a wisdom-of-the-crowds philosophy, we can trust that the market is generally pricing these players in an efficient manner.
Any time we select a player after their ADP, we are getting a player at a value. The more value we accumulate in a draft, the better chance we have at building a truly special team. To emphasize how important this is, Mike Leoneās research discovered that the teams last year who accumulated the most ADP value in their drafts increased their advance rates by 50%. That is a staggering number and something we clearly need to prioritize in drafts.
There are two ways to capture ADP value: real-time value and closing line value.
Real-time value is the value you get in the specific draft room. For example, the other day I got Tyler Higbee at pick 192 despite his ADP being 35 picks higher:
Thatās nearly three rounds of real-time ADP value. This specific roster likely features combos of players with Higbee that other drafters in most rooms wonāt have access to because he went at such a different portion of the draft than normal.
The other type of ADP value is the closing line value (CLV). CLV in best ball represents the difference in ADP between when you select that player and when the contest closes. This is important for contests like Best Ball Mania that span multiple months.
Last year Pat Kerrane, who won the $2 million top prize in Best Ball Mania III, selected Rhamondre Stevenson at pick 111 on July 18th. When the contest filled in early September, he was going 31 picks earlier.
Drafter ELB240812, who won the $1 million regular-season top prize in Best Ball Mania III, selected Dameon Pierce at pick 135 (coincidentally on July 18th, as well). Over the subsequent six weeks, Pierce rocketed up 75 spots.
I dissected both of these million-dollar lineups in a recent video if you want to see the secret sauce (in addition to closing line value) that vaulted their teams to the top of the leaderboard.
By locking in massive closing line value on two RBs who went on to be league winners, Pat and ELB essentially added an āextraā 6th/7th round pick to the team.
TLDR: The earlier you draft, the better chance you have at locking in big-time values.
Looking to test out these strategies? You can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 on Underdog Fantasy by creating a new account. Sign up and start drafting today to put these strategies to use!
