🎯 4 Rookies To Target In Drafts

We watched preseason action so you don't have to...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

• 4 key takeaways from last night's preseason games
• Could Kim Kardashian start dating an NFL RB?
• Eliot's 2 fantasy breakouts
• How to draft from the 6 spot
• Jonathan's 2 sleepers
• It’s 8/12. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

With two more preseason games in the books, here are four key takeaways as you head into another weekend of drafting...

🎯 Wan'Dale Robinson is getting first-team treatment. Granted Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard didn't play, it was encouraging to see the rookie WR running with the 1s and getting pulled when Daniel Jones did. Robinson has an inside track to slot duties in this offense with Shepard still on the mend and he's been a priority target for me late in drafts.

🎯 Tyquan Thornton delivers on the training camp buzz. Every day I check Twitter and every day there is more positive buzz on Thornton (which you've likely seen me feature in the Watercooler section down below). The second-round draft pick turned his one target into a TD. That might not seem super notable, but considering he's a speedster, it's interesting that it was a play from the 5 yard line. Thornton and Kendrick Bourne are my preferred ways to attack the Patriots passing game in drafts.

🎯 Are we sleeping on Malik Willis? Other rookie QBs like Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett will occasionally get drafted in Underdog contests, but Willis has been the forgotten one from this QB class. He looked awesome in limited action last night, though, completing six of 11 passes for 107 yards. He also rushed five times for 38 yards and this impressive score:

Okay Malik Willis 👀

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Aug 12, 2022

It might be wise to start galaxy braining Willis with some Treylon Burks and Robert Woods stacks in your tournament drafts. If the team struggles early, it will be tough to keep Willis off the field.

🎯 Don't panic on Burks. The rookie has been one of the most polarizing players in camp. From asthma freak-outs to depth chart woes, drafters have had a hard time reconciling his recent speed bumps with his tantalizing prospect profile and clear runway for targets. Burks didn't run with the 1s last night and played into the 4th quarter, but I'm still willing to bet on the WR the team took at 18th overall. It might be bumpy to start, but the ceiling remains very high. 

There's no better place to put your money where your mouth is than Underdog Fantasy, where they are hosting an incredible Best Ball Mania III tournament with $2 million to first place:

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🐝 The buzziest WR on the best offense in football. The drumbeat continues out of Buffalo.

😴 My favorite RB sleeper. I was worried about a multi-way committee initially, but hype is starting build.

💌 Could Kim Kardashian start dating an NFL RB? Check out our Zero RB target checking in at +1400 here!

🕵️‍♂️ A lead on Jimmy Garoppolo's landing spot? A team is interested.

🆚 Who is the Broncos WR1? It's been hotly debated, but Denver insider Benjamin Allbright has the scoop. Read more about the chemistry here.

🤪 Antonio Brown with an all-time quote. I guess you could say he thinks highly of himself.

👋 James White retires. He announced it on his Twitter feed yesterday. Here's who to target if you're looking for the 2022 pass-catching back in the Patriots offense.

🤣 Best ball guys. If you've drafted a couple teams this summer, you're likely featured in this video.

Drafting safe ain't it. We need to be taking big swings to win our leagues. Today, Eliot shares two players he thinks are primed for breakouts...

🚀 Mo Alie-Cox (TE27 on Underdog Fantasy)

With Jack Doyle retiring, Mo Alie-Cox sits atop of a TE depth chart and his competition for playing time has just 11 career total receptions. The Colts drafted Jelani Woods in the third round, but according to Zac Keefer of the Athletic, Woods has "looked lost at times" during training camp and is "probably coming along a little slower" than the Colts expected. While Alie-Cox has never stuffed the stat sheet, he has been highly involved in the Colts’ offense when on the field - seeing a 20.2% target rate last season. He made the most of his opportunity last season, having the fourth highest aDot among all tight ends, and finishing 5th in yards per reception. 

The Colts made a massive change in QB this offseason as well, acquiring Matt Ryan from the Atlanta Falcons. Ryan historically has loved getting his tight ends involved, regardless of who they were. With three different starters in the last four years (Kyle Pitts, Hayden Hurst, and Austin Hooper) the Falcons never finished outside of the top 10 in TE targets during that time span.

Falcons TE Targets:

• 2021 - 110 targets (4th)
• 2020 - 88 targets (10th)
• 2019 - 97 targets (6th)
• 2018 - 88 targets (7th)

With improved QB play, lack of competition, and efficiency on his side, Mo Alie-Cox has a chance to be this year's Dalton Schultz.

🚀 George Pickens (WR67 on Underdog Fantasy)

The Pittsburgh Steelers selected Pickens with the 52nd pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Pickens fell in the draft due to injury and off-field concerns, but his talent was that of a Top 10 pick in the draft. 

As a rookie receiver, you could not ask for a better landing spot based on track record than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their last three rookie receivers in Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, and James Washington all finished as top 60 fantasy WRs and had a minimum of 79 targets in their rookie years. George Pickens is currently the WR69 off the board on Underdog Fantasy. 

Pickens has been dominating camp and is locked in the top three on the Steelers WR depth chart. Last year the Steelers ran 11 personnel (3WR) 924 times, the second most in football, while attempting the fifth most pass attempts. Regardless if he beats out Claypool for the second WR position, he is going to get a full-time starter’s workload.

The biggest concern for many with Pickens is the Steelers QB play with either Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett starting for the Steelers. I think Pickett will end up playing a majority of the season for Pittsburgh which could be great for Pickens big play ability. In 2021, Pickett completed 38/74 passes of 20 or more air yards for 1,299 yards, 17 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Only Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe and Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman had more deep completions in the NCAA last season.

Season long drafts are just around the corner. In this new series, our contributors will get you prepared from all twelve of the first round draft slots. Today, Sam shares how to attack a draft from the first pick...

Fantasy teams can look different depending on where you pick. There will be players you rarely land simply because of your draft slot. However, methods exist for drafting successful teams from any pick.

If you are randomly assigned (or if you happen to choose) the 1.06 in your redraft league, you will be sitting in an excellent position.

According to the Fantasy Life ADP Tool, here are the first 6 players off the board:

1. RB Jonathan Taylor
2. RB Christian McCaffrey
3. WR Cooper Kupp
4. WR Justin Jefferson
5. RB Austin Ekeler
6. WR Ja’Marr Chase

I know Jonathan believes there's a tier break after five, but I love the 1.06 because I believe Ekeler deserves to be in that top tier as well.

Last season, he scored as many total TDs (20) as he did in his previous three seasons combined. His total rushing TDs (12) was more than he scored in his entire career (9).

The word “regression” likely comes to mind, and I understand why, but this offense is elite. Ekeler remains an integral part of both the rushing and passing attack. He even said he doesn’t expect his workload to change this season.

Drafting at the end of tiers helps you accrue value throughout your draft. Selecting Ekeler at 1.06 allows you to make your second pick before the five managers who went ahead of you.

Using the ADP Tool, here are potential options for your second round:

• RB Aaron Jones
• RB Saquon Barkley
• TE Mark Andrews

Finally, here are potential options for your third round:

• WR AJ Brown
• TE Kyle Pitts
• WR Michael Pittman

You don’t need to draft Taylor or McCaffrey to dominate your draft. Study ADP trends, make a list of your guys, and go have some fun.

In this series, our contributors will share the sleepers that they're targeting in drafts. Today, Jonathan hypes up two young guns... 

💤 Kenneth Gainwell (Underdog ADP 139.5)

The Gainwell hype train is leaving the station so it’s time to get on board or get left behind. Although Miles Sanders is the de facto starter, it is widely expected that this backfield will be a timeshare, and at least one Eagles insider believes Gainwell could receive the high-value touches that matter for fantasy. 

Gainwell had an up-and-down season in 2021 but was very productive overall, considering he was just a fifth-round rookie. He showed the ability to create explosive plays and had a nose for the endzone, scoring six times on just 101 touches. Reports out of camp suggest Gainwell is taking lots of reps with the first team, and HC Nick Sirianni even wore a Kenneth Gainwell shirt at his press conference the other day. Basically, all signs are pointing up.

Not only is Gainwell a good player with a growing role, he also happens to play in one of the most RB friendly offenses. The Eagles had the second most rushing attempts of any team last season and project to run the ball plenty in 2022. Add in PFF’s highest rated offensive line and an elite rushing QB to keep defenses honest and it’s easy to see a player like Gainwell consistently ripping off big plays.

At some point, the cost might get out of hand for a player who is unlikely to ever be a workhorse, but for now, it’s time to load up on Gainwell in all of our drafts.

💤 Jalen Tolbert (Underdog ADP 115.3)

The Dallas Cowboys have a deceptively thin WR room behind CeeDee Lamb. Michael Gallup is a good #2 but is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in January. The lack of proven pass catchers means there is an opportunity for someone to step up right away in this offense…enter Jalen Tolbert.

The Cowboys selected Tolbert in the third round out of South Alabama, and early camp reports have been positive. He is a good athlete who had a really strong college production profile and was a consistent big play threat, so there are reasons to be optimistic.

The rookie should be on the field plenty in the opening weeks, which gives him the opportunity to establish a role for himself in a Dallas offense that had the third most passing yards in the league last season. 

This makes Tolbert the ideal sleeper because we will know in the first few weeks whether he is a player to keep or cut.