Put Tony Pollard and Bijan Robinson in your lineup. I dare you…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by GameBlazers:
- There will be points on Sunday
- Week 10 Rankings & Tiers: Two Smash plays
- QUICK HITTER: TNF’s best bet
- Justin Jefferson and James Conner updates
- Freedman’s Favorites: Big names to bet on
- It’s 11/9. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
A week ago at this time, I was writing about The QB Week From Hell.
Fortunately, things look a lot more promising in Week 10.
Not only do we have Kyler Murray returning, but we also have four games with legitimate shootout potential, as evidenced by the Vegas totals.
Here are the games to get your popcorn for on Sunday and load up on in fantasy contests…
🍿 Texans @ Bengals (48-point total)
The biggest question mark heading into this game is what kind of encore C.J. Stroud is going to deliver after his Week 9 explosion. Ian is very bullish on his prospects to keep the good times rolling.
The Bengals are one of the hottest teams in football right now, having won four straight, including big-time Ws over the Bills and Niners. The worry for Cincinnati, though, is the health of their WRs. Ja’Marr Chase didn’t practice yesterday due to his back injury, and Tee Higgins was limited with a hamstring injury.
Joe Mixon (our current 11th-ranked RB on the week) was already a great play against a Texans run defense that just got sliced up by Rachaad White but becomes even more interesting if the WR room isn’t at full strength.
🍿 Niners @ Jaguars (46-point total)
The Niners are reeling after two straight losses, but are now fresh off a bye with Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel fully healthy and reinforcements on the defensive side of the ball.
The Jaguars are sitting pretty, too. They’ve won five straight and might even get Zay Jones back for this one.
These offenses oddly mirror each other in that they have so many weapons that can beat you, but forecasting which piece(s) will go for ceiling games is always tricky.
Regardless, this is a fire the canons spot and I can’t imagine sitting any of the RBs, TEs, or top 2 WRs on each squad.
🍿 Lions @ Chargers (48.5-point total)
This game offers a ton of fantasy intrigue, mainly on the Lions’ side of the ball.
With the Chargers offense sputtering these days, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are the only bankable fantasy assets.
On the Lions side, though, there are multiple ways to get exposure to one of the most potent offenses in football.
The biggest riddle for Week 10 is how the backfield will shake out with David Montgomery back in the fold (he practiced in full yesterday).
It seems impossible to put the Jahmyr Gibbs genie back in the bottle, yet we know Dan Campbell has an Arthur Smithian love for leaning on an RB other than his first-round draft pick. We currently have both backs ranked as high-end RB2s.
🍿 Commanders @ Seahawks (45.5-point total)
I’ll be expanding on this game for my Hidden Gems piece tomorrow, but this game has a very wide range of outcomes that excite me for DFS purposes.
Sure, this game could flop if the Seahawks’ offense continues to sputter and Sam Howell takes a zillion sacks, but there’s also the potential for fireworks.
The Commanders contain all of the necessary ingredients for a tasty fantasy stew:
A bottom 5 defense that gives up the third-most fantasy points to WRs:
A pass-happy attack that rivals the top offenses in the league from a PROE (pass rate over expectation) perspective.
Virtually every skill position player on both these teams is in play for me on Sunday. Check out Dwain’s piece below for why DK Metcalf is specifically set up for a big day.
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 10 of the fantasy football season. Below you’ll find Dwain’s thoughts on a must-start player and why Week 10 sets up to be arguably his best week yet. Find all of our positional rankings here.
💥 Wide Receiver
🥉 Tier 3 - DK Metcalf
If something doesn’t change soon in Seattle, Metcalf is in danger of posting his worst fantasy season since his rookie campaign when he averaged 11.9 points. The fifth-year WR is barely above that mark at 12.2. He hasn’t delivered a top-12 performance yet – he has been north of 15 points only once in 2023.
While rookie addition Jaxon Smith-Njigba hasn’t blown up in his rookie campaign, his 19% target share has altered the number of looks for Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. In 2021 and 2022, Metcalf boasted target shares of 25% (7.3) and 24% (8.2), but he is down 21% (6.7).
The No. 3 target share on the team in 2021 and 2022 was 11% (Noah Fant) and 14% (Gerald Everett). The arrival of JSN has ever-so-slightly shifted the target share environment for the Seahawks, and the offense's inability to generate enough volume has amplified the problem – running the third-fewest plays per game (58.1) thanks to their league-worst 44% time of possession.
While many things haven’t gone right for Metcalf, he has continued a long-standing trend of morphing into an absolute ALPHA against man coverage. He leads the team with a 35% target share versus man – much better than his 15% against zone.
This weekend, he faces the third-most man-heavy coverage unit against Washington. The Commanders allow a juicy 34.9 points per contest to opposing pass catchers – the fourth-most on the slate. We have seen other top WRs go bonkers against this secondary.
- D.J. Moore: 230 yards, 3 TDs
- A.J. Brown: 175 yards, 2 TDs
- A.J. Brown (again, lmao): 130 yards, 2 TDs
- Drake London: 125 yards, 0 TDs
This is a get-right game for the Seahawks, and Vegas agrees. Seattle has the second-highest team total (25.75) as six-point favorites over Washington.
In an as-good-once-as-I-ever was game, look for the veteran WR to have his best performance of the season, eclipsing 100 yards and scoring a TD.
Metcalf is a SMASH play and is my WR9 in Week 10.
ALL of the Week 10 Rankings you NEED
The Fantasy Life FREE Bet Tracker is already loaded with a handful of plays for Thursday Night Football, and Matthew Freedman is here to give you a peek behind the curtain with one of his best bets for the game…
🚑️ More info on Justin Jefferson’s return. Everything is on track.
🤓 Could you pass the Wonderlic? Our very own Cooterdoodle gives it a shot.
🚀 5 players trending UP. Could they be league-winners?!
🏀 The Vikings watch some hoops. Love the golf clap from Jordan Addison.
📺 Everything you need to prep for Week 10. The Godfather of Fantasy, an All-Pro WR, and your favorite fantasy analysts have you covered.
💍 The story of George Kittle’s proposal. So good.
🙏 R.I.P. Matt Ulrich. Very sad.
🐻 Some Thursday Night Football is better than none. Everything you need for TNF betting and the DFS showdown slate.
🤝 How to think about the Panthers backfield. Good context here.
📣 The greatest debate of our generation. More ammo for the Jaylen Warren vs. Najee Harris battle.
📊 Taking a look at the smart kid’s homework. Week 10 betting breakdown from the experts.
📈 The Cardinals are getting their RB back. Will it be this week?
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called “Freedman’s Favorites”. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding “No”. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 10…
🌟 Josh Allen (Bills) vs. Broncos
- Bills: -7.5
- O/U: 47
- TT: 27.25
Life has not been easy on Allen this year. He leads the league with nine INTs, and the Bills are currently on the outside of the AFC playoff picture with their 5-4 record.
And yet Allen has played heroic ball this season: He’s No. 1 in QBR (75.3, per ESPN) and No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.184, per RBs Don’t Matter). For the season, he’s the No. 1 fantasy producer (24.4 FPPG). He’s still very much “Josh Allen.”
And although the Broncos have improved defensively over the past month, they’re still No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.217). Even with the bye week to prepare, the Broncos will likely be vulnerable against a motivated Allen.
🌟 Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs. Colts (in Germany)
- Patriots: +1
- O/U: 43.5
- TT: 21.25
QBs Tom Brady and Peyton Manning aren’t walking through that door -- but Stevenson might run through it.
Since Week 5, Stevenson hasn’t had more than 10 carries in a game as No. 2 RB Ezekiel Elliott has seized an annoying share of the rushing workload.
But Stevenson, over the past month, has been massively involved in the receiving game (56% route rate, 18% target share, 27% target rate, 76% long down-and-distance snap rate, 100% two-minute snap rate). And he has been involved enough in the running game (38 carries).
With his overall workload, he has put up 334 yards and two TDs over the past four games -- and the Colts are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (23.0 FPPG).
🌟 Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) at Chargers
- Lions: -2.5
- O/U: 48.5
- TT: 25.5
St. Brown has 100 yards or a TD in every game played this year. He’s No. 2 with 11.1 targets per game. His weekly floor is the career ceiling for most WRs.
The Chargers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (32.3 FPPG), and St. Brown has an attractive matchup in the slot against CB Ja’Sir Taylor, a second-year sixth-rounder with a 57.6 coverage grade (per PFF).
🌟 D.J. Moore (Bears) vs. Panthers
- Bears: -4
- O/U: 39
- TT: 21.5
“How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”
As the saying goes, payback is a deep-dish pizza best served on a cold Chicago night.
Moore will be stuck with Tyson Bagent for at least one more week, but faces a Panthers secondary who Panthers secondary could be without CBs Jaycee Horn (hamstring, IR) and C.J. Henderson (concussion), S/CB Jeremy Chinn (quad, IR), FS Xavier Woods (thigh), and SS Vonn Bell (quad).
Despite dealing with Bagent for the past month, Moore is still No. 6 with 735 yards receiving.
🌟 Dalton Kincaid (Bills) at Bengals
- Bills: -7.5
- O/U: 47
- TT: 27.25
Since returning in Week 7 from a concussion that sidelined him the prior week, Kincaid has 23-221-1 receiving on 26 targets in three games, and I expect his usage to stick given that No. 2 TE Dawson Knox (wrist, IR) is out.
The Broncos are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.5 FPPG).
