But āifā is the operative word there, which is why I want to show some love to the ānot in my league!ā crowd today with a few super deeper RB sleepers you should consider stashing.
I have no problem ponying up for difference makers on the waiver wire (we spent 90% of our FAAB on Puka Nacua in one of my high-stakes leagues last week, for example), but itās even better to get the next hot waiver add on your team before they cost an arm and a leg.
Here are four candidates to be that next waiver wire darlingā¦
Look, Iām well aware that Zach Evans was a healthy scratch on Sunday, even after the team deactivated Cam Akers.
But Evans has a very intriguing prospect profile (see Dwainās blurb below) and is by far the most talented back on the roster behind Williams (sorry, Ronnie Rivers and Royce Freeman).
If you need immediate production in fantasy, guys like Matt Breida and Craig Reynolds offer more bankable touches, but if you have the luxury to swing for the fences, make bets on guys like Evansāespecially because we know Sean McVay loves utilizing a single back.
BONUS: Hereās what Dwain had to say about Evans in his RB Super Model piece this offseason:
Evans was a five-star recruit and the No. 2 RB in the 2020 recruiting class behind Bijan Robinson. Evans played his first two seasons at TCU, where he broke out with a 2.47 ATYTA as a sophomore in six games. However, he opted to transfer to Ole Miss for his junior season, where he regressed to 1.33 ATYTA in 2022.
On the surface, Evansās 86 total yards per game for his career doesnāt look very appealing, but he flashed enough of his five-star magic to earn a spot in Tier 4. His 81st-percentile 21% explosive rush rate is best in the 2023 RB class, and Evans's average yards after contact ranks second behind only Robinson when only looking at Power Five programs.
In the passing attack, Evans was an above-average target earner with an 18% TPRR and a 1.35 YPRR on his career. He wasnāt just a swing-pass option either, as his 2.0 aDOT ranked third among this year's class of RBs.
Dwain McFarland
šDevon Achane - The guy behind Raheem Mostert š Kendre Miller - The guy behind Jamaal Williams
Iām lumping Devon Achane and Kendre Miller together because they are both rookies who were firmly on the redraft radar and subsequently dropped in most leagues, but now have clearer paths to relevanceā¦
In Miami, Salvon Ahmed is dealing with a groin injury. And with Jeff Wilson out at least two more games, it means Achane will most certainly have a role in Week 3:
Achaneās blazing fast speed (4.32 40-yard dash) instantly makes him an intriguing stash in Mike McDanielās run scheme.
In New Orleans, a similar situation is unfolding. Jamaal Williamssuffered a hamstring on Monday night, which paved the way for Tony Jones Jr. to turn 12 touches into 24 yards and 2 TDs.
Like the aforementioned Reynolds and Breida, Jones Jr. is a middling talent, which means the door is open for the exciting rookie to make his stamp on this backfield over the coming weeks.
It could be as soon as Week 3 with Alvin Kamara serving the final game of his suspension.
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Ian Hartitz took a look at 12 trends through two weeks and attempted to discern whether the numbers are real enough to keep on keeping on, or if the world will find out things are fake sooner rather than later. As always: Itās a great day to be greatā¦
šØāš³ The Bills are letting James cook
Just look at this utilization!
The second-year RB has made the most out of his opportunities along the way, posting top-10 marks in missed tackles forced per carry (0.28), yards per carry (5.8) yards after contact per carry (4.4) and yards per route run (1.13).
Yes, the Bills seem content to let Latavius Murray and Damien Harris handle the majority of goal-line work.
Also yes, Cook is on pace for a whopping 315 touches and 1,887 total yards after two weeks of action.
āReal or fake?
Fake in that I would take the under on those aforementioned touch and yardage projections, real in that Cook has solidified himself as a weekly upside RB2 inside this ever-potent Bills attack.
Beggars canāt be choosers in fantasy land: 15-plus combined carries and targets per week inside of this Josh Allen-led attack can and will go a long way this season.
Itād be cooler if the Bills gave Cook a goal-line carry here and there, but the young backās explosive pass-catching ability is more than enough to make up for a lack of short-down-and-distance usage.
šŖ This Cowboys defense looks like an absolute juggernaut
One of my favorite team defense stats is āHavoc Rateā, which takes the sum of a groupās tackles for a loss or no gain, forced fumbles, interceptions, pass deflections and pressures before dividing by total plays faced.
A really good havoc rate is usually anything above 50%. Nine defenses have pulled this off through two weeks of action:
Cowboys (80.2%)
Saints (59.1%)
Bills (58.7%)
Packers (58.1%)
Commanders (57.5%)
Browns (57%)
49ers (54%)
Steelers (53.1%)
Eagles (51.1%)
Micah Parsons and company have made life absolute hell for both Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson this season, unleashing a combination of elite pressure (62.8%, No. 1) and sticky coverage (21.4% contested target rate, No. 1) that is quite literally unmatched around the league.
āReal or fake?
Fake in that these numbers wonāt stay THIS high, but there does seem to be a real chance the best defense in football now resides in Dallas.
Matchups against the Cardinals and Patriots likely wonāt give this group a real test over the next two weeks, but, for now, this pass rush looks capable of f*cking up any offensive line.
Plus, the addition of Stephon Gilmore has this ball-hawking secondary sitting pretty with PFFās No. 1 coverage grade after two weeks of action.
š§ Buccaneers country is BAKING
The 2-0 Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers havenāt exactly faced the toughest defenses in the Vikings (28th in scoring defense in 2022) and Bears (32nd), but credit where credit is due: This offense has found an early-season groove despite being written off by pretty much everyone before the season began.
Yes, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin make life a helluva lot easier for any QB.
Also yes, Mayfield himself deserves a lot of credit for the teamās hot start.
EPA per dropback: +0.18 (No. 8 among 33 qualified QB)
PFF passing grade: 80.3 (No. 3)
CPOE: +6.3% (No. 9)
Passer rating: 105.1 (No. 6)
Adjusted completion rate: 78.7% (No. 11)
Yards per attempt: 7.4 (No. 10)
ā Real or fake?
Real-ish in the sense that this group wonāt be confused with the leagueās single-worst offense.
Mayfield has indeed played competent football for extended stretches before (just look at his second-half performance in both 2018 and 2020), and heās being put in a good position to succeed with top-10 rates in play-action (29.3%) and no-huddle (15.4%) usage.
Potentially this yearās version of the 2022 Seahawks, at a minimum the Buccaneers profile as a far more average offense than anyone thought was possible a mere few weeks ago.
Week 2 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspectiveā¦
Before we get into player specifics, I want to draw your attention to one key concept:
š ADP is a distant memory
I know we just spent months mock drafting and studying player ADP, but as we get more weeks under our belt and the data points pile up, itās time to loosen the reins on draft capital.
Thatās right. Itās time to start valuing the information in front of us. (Start Puka!)
Now letās get into some buyinā, sellinā, and holdinā baby!
šBUY
š Sam LaPorta
If you didnāt draft one of the ābig three TEsā (read: Travis Kelce & co.), youāve likely been playing tight-end roulette the last few weeks.
Hell, even if you DID draft one of the big three TEs youāve had to scour the waiver wire for a healthy hammy. But Iām ready to settle down with the right guy.
And it's looking like Sam LaPorta is going to be a consistent beneficiary in the Lions offense.
With an average of 5 receptions and 50.5 yards per game, Iād say heās worth your consideration.
Takeaway: I refuse to let TE waivers rule my life.
š SELL
š Najee Harris
Is it still considered selling if no one is buying?
Lucky for you, Harris broke away with a few double-digit runs on Monday night. Those might have beefed up his score justtttttt enough on paper to help you trade him away (4.8 points looks better than 0.9, right?).
Analysts have been touting Harrisā backup, Jaylen Warren, all offseason. And I think Warrenās role grows in this offense sooner rather than later.
Takeaway: Jaylen Warren is the RB to roster in PIT.
š Tony Jones Jr. RB 1 SZN?
While Jonesā lightning-quick payday looked great on paper once Jamaal Williams left the game with a hamstring injury, this type of production just isnāt guaranteed week to week.
Alvin Kamara returns from suspension after just one more game and rookie Kendre Miller is reportedly nearing his own return.
While Jones isnāt a bad pick-up in a vacuum, his price is just too damn high on the heels of this 2 TD game, for what is possibly only one week of playtime as the starter.
Takeaway: Tony Jones Jr. is here for a good time, not a long time.
š HOLD
š Tony Pollard
Guys. You drafted him for this!
Pollard is looking to be exactly the RB we were hoping for this season. In a landscape where early-round picks can be unpredictably disappointing fantasy production busts, Pollard is holding his own.
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