Looks like everyone’s getting deals these days. Except for CeeDee Lamb…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
San Francisco secures another star
Watercooler: Stafford should have how many Super Bowl rings?!!?
Team Preview: Draft Caleb Williams at ADP? Hartitz weighs in…
It's 6/5. Take it away, Chris Allen…
San Francisco’s front office held off making a deal with him for so long.
We all knew it was inevitable.
At the end of the 2023 season, trade rumors flooded the Bay Area and continued through the NFL Draft. And, of course, beat writers instantly noted his absence from OTAs. But in the end, the 49ers rewarded their best pass-catcher with a market-resetting deal yesterday.
Oh, you thought I was talking about Brandon Aiyuk? That’s my bad.
Regardless, it was Christian McCaffrey who inked a new extension on Tuesday. The two-year deal with an AAV of $19M ($24M guaranteed) ties 2023’s Offensive Player of the Year to SF through 2025. And after leading the league with 21 TDs last season, a raise makes sense for the 28-year-old RB.
I made the ‘best pass-catcher’ quip (mostly) in jest, but CMC’s impact as a receiver is a main part of why he’s been a first-overall selection in Underdog drafts the last two seasons. And if you compare positional ranks between McCaffrey and Aiyuk, there’s an argument to be made that slightly leans toward the RB.
Overall Target Share: 1st (McCaffrey), 21st (Aiyuk)
Red-zone Target Share: 1st, 14th
TPRR: 6th, 15th
YPRR: 3rd, 2nd
Of course, the debate loses steam once things like aDOT and routes (you know…reality?) get brought into the discussion. Aiyuk is one of three WRs with Top 8 marks in YPRR against both man and zone coverage. The other two? Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson.
But still, the implications only add more uncertainty to Aiyuk’s situation. San Francisco’s front office has seemingly been more willing to work things out with their third WR, a cast-off TE, and now their RB1.
While we can all agree McCaffrey’s fantasy value towers over Aiyuk’s, the 49ers’ offense loses some of its luster without their WR1 (aka ‘the guy who caught the most passes and generated the most receiving yards’). So, let’s see how his situation plays out as SF locks down another piece of their passing game.
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🤯 Fading the 2022 overall WR1? That’s a bold strategy…
😅 Adam Thielen gives his thoughts on the Panthers’ new facility plans. At least he was honest.
👀 Saints’ new running scheme favors Kendre Miller. Just when I thought I was out…
😲 Matthew Stafford’s biggest fan is the Texans QB1. Strong take from CJ Stroud.
🤔 Jonnu Smith. 'Master of YAC'. Mike McDaniel has a way with words, man.
😭 Remember when Treylon Burks was supposed to replace A.J. Brown? Yeah, me neither.
🙃 Former first-round WR converting to TE. I’m sure it’ll work out….
The Bears haven't exactly had an easy go of things over the past decade. Overall, they've put together just one season above .500 since 2013, and sadly that ended with, you know, the double-doink. However, 2024 offers a new feeling of hope for Bears fans, and Ian is here to break it down. Bear down? Bear down.
🐻 Quarterback
QB1: Caleb Williams (Fantasy Life consensus rank: QB13)
QB2: Tyson Bagent
Pretty much any advanced metric tells the same story: Williams was nothing short of elite during his three collegiate seasons.
Williams among 122 Power-5 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks 2021-23
PFF pass grade: 91.4 (No. 5)
Passer rating: 118.3 (No. 3)
Adjusted completion rate: 76% (No. 23)
Yards per attempt: 9.1 (No. 7)
Best Cris Collinsworth impression We got a guy here who can chuck the rock 65 yards on a dime in a clean pocket and also deliver lasers on the run to both his right and left.
And yet, it’s Williams’ joystick moves and ability to manipulate defenders in open space that is especially dynamic. Don’t confuse this with the USC product being a run-first QB, but it’s hard not to be enamored about this facet of his game when looking at how his production could translate to fantasy football land. Overall, Williams scored a ridiculous 27 rushing TDs in 37 games, regularly proving capable of making defenders of all shapes and sizes look silly in space.
Shocker: It won’t be as easy for Williams to accomplish this at the next level. Don’t expect him to put up Lamar Jackson-level rushing production, but his middling career average of 3.3 yards per carry is incredibly misleading and simply a factor of how many sacks he took (more on that in a bit).
Williams rushing production when excluding sacks:
2023: 74 rushes for 356 yards and 11 TDs (4.8 yards per carry)
2022: 94 rushes for 624 yards and 10 TDs (6.6)
That two-year 168-980-21 rushing line is more indicative of the playmaking potential Williams has at the next level on the ground. High-volume dual-threat QBs tend to be cheat codes in fantasy land; don’t be surprised if Williams at least manages to crack the position’s top-10 performers in terms of fantasy points from purely rushing production on an annual basis early in his career.
While Williams isn't a perfect prospect — his pressure-to-sack rate wasn't good and there were times when he seemed to press and give up five-to-10 yards in exchange for the chance of ripping off a chunk play — it's still hard not to be enamored with his upside inside of this suddenly lethal-looking Bears offense. How times have changed.
✍️ Bottom Line
Williams' QB11 (pick 96.4) ADP isn't cheap, but we're talking about one of the better QB prospects in recent memory joining an offense with arguably not one, not two, but three No. 1 caliber WRs. That's tough to be too down on — I'm fine with Williams at cost and believe he's the easy 1.01 in rookie Superflex drafts.
Read on for more notes on the rest of CHI’s skill players
Slightly overbid.
