Hope you enjoyed your final football-free Sunday...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by KFC:
- 5 big question marks for Week 1
- The RB committee we all are ignoring
- The Fantasy Life Facebook Game
- Geoff's Intro to Prop Betting
- It's 9/5. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
Week 1 is finally here and it can’t come soon enough.
On Thursday night, the season will kickoff with Bills at Rams and from there we’ll be off to the races with a full slate of games on Sunday and the MNF hammer between the Seahawks and Broncos.
Right now feels like the calm before the storm. We’re still a couple days away from getting clarity on a lot of murky injury situations so all we can really do on this Labor Day is review our teams/exposures and toss around Week 1 hypotheticals in our head.
Here are 5 big questions I can’t wait to see answered in Week 1…
🔮 Is Trey Lance ready for prime time?
There’s been a lot of hand-wringing over what Jimmy Garoppolo’s new contract means for Lance, but the one thing we do know is that Lance will be under center for their away game in Chicago on Sunday. The Niners are 7 point road favorites, though the books aren’t expecting much in the way of scoring (41.5 o/u).
I’ll be fascinated to see how many designed runs Kyle Shanahan draws up for Lance. Could a 1,000 yard rushing season be in play? I also can’t wait to see if Brandon Aiyuk is able to deliver on his buzzy summer. Could he potentially emerge over Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as the preferred passing option in this offense?
I have no idea if Lance will be good, but I know it’ll be fun to watch either way. Lance is either taking us believers to the moon or blowing us up in a blaze of glory.
🔮 What will the Chiefs offense look like?
A couple weeks ago I called Kansas City the skeleton key to 2022 and it still remains true. We know this team is going to put up a boatload of points (implied team total of 28.75 vs. the Cardinals on Sunday), we just don’t know where exactly it’ll be coming from.
Can the 32 year-old Travis Kelce fight off the age cliff? Can JuJu Smith-Schuster be this year’s Cooper Kupp and enjoy a mid-career renaissance fueled by a new QB? Can Marquez Valdes-Scantling fill the deep threat void left by Tyreek Hill? Can rookie Skyy Moore deliver on his sterling prospect profile and emerge as the No. 1 option down the stretch? It’s an exhaustive list of questions and I haven’t even mentioned Mecole Hardman, who still has some juice and ran in three WR sets during most of the preseason.
There’s a similar amount of intrigue in the RB room, where perennial disappointment Clyde Edwards-Helaire will try to fend off a trio of contenders for the RB1 role. Jerick McKinnon proved he could do it down the playoff stretch and has the inside track for passing work. Rookie Isiah Pacheco was one of the biggest ADP risers in August and will get a crack. And let’s not ever forget Ronald Jones, who escaped the chopping block and will once again live to see another day.
🔮 Which rookies will make an impact right away?
Every year it seems like rookies make more and more of an immediate impact. Drafters have reacted accordingly by aggressively trying to land the 2022 versions of Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Eli Mitchell and Amon Ra-St. Brown.
- Will Dameon Pierce meet expectations on his new luxury price tag?
- Could Drake London or Treylon Burks give us a Chase-like explosion on massive volume?
- Could an undervalued Jahan Dotson or Alec Pierce give us a sneaky St. Brown-esque finish down the stretch?
- Could a pass-catching back with juice like James Cook or Rachaad White channel their inner, rookie year Alvin Kamara and scorch the fantasy landscape?
Not all of the rookies will hit. In fact, most of them will bust relative to the sky high expectations. But history tells us the ones who do hit will hit in a massive way.
🔮 Who is Aaron Rodgers going to throw to?
I’ve found it bizarre that despite losing megastar WR Davante Adams, the sportsbooks don’t seem worried about the Packers’ prospects in 2022. They have the third highest win total (o/u 11) in the league and Rodgers is still Top 6 in MVP odds.
If the ‘books are right, someone is going to need to step up in a big way in this passing game, even if the team establishes the hell out of the run.
Allen Lazard is a role player (career YPRR of 1.45) cosplaying as a No. 1 WR because a depth chart has to start somewhere. Rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson have ping-ponged receiving Rodgers’ praise and his frustration all summer. Veterans Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb are staying for one more drink before they call an Uber to retirement.
Maybe the answer to this equation is Aaron Jones catching an absurd amount of balls? I truly don’t know and can’t wait to see which pass catchers have found their way into the mercurial Rodgers’ good graces.
🔮 Can the Giants deliver on the offseason promise?
All offseason we’ve hyped ourselves up for this new-look Giants team under former Bills OC Brian Daboll. The thesis is clear: Daboll reinvents the offense with a shot of creativity, turns the volatile Daniel Jones into a poor man’s Josh Allen, unleashes a fully healthy Saquon Barkley across all three downs, and harnesses Kadarius Toney’s electricity into big plays.
Maybe he can fix Kenny Golladay’s stiffness while he’s at it, but that might be too much to ask.
We’ll see if Daboll is ready to run the show on Sunday when the team travels to Tennessee as 5.5 road dogs.
If you still have a draft or two left, don’t miss our 10 Quick Tips To Crush Your Draft that we posted on Friday.
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🤷♂️ The RB committee we all want to ignore. If you like Javonte Williams, don't click this link.
⭕ You're drafting the wrong Bears RB. Don't just take my word for it.
🥁 The sleeper TE with a steady drumbeat. Wish I had drafted him more.
📅 The ultimate Week 1 preview. Pat Kerrane's walkthrough is a comprehensive guide.
🌴 The 2022 Eliminator/Survivor League cheat sheet. Always enjoy this resource from Mike Clay.
💥 Predicting potential 2022 surprises for all 32 NFL teams. Fun read on ESPN+. Get access with a Rotopass subscription, which includes a bundle of fantasy sites for one low price.
✔️ Stats to keep you occupied until kickoff. Scott Barret from Fantasy Points has takeaways for every NFL team.
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— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Sep 2, 2022
We got the fantasy drafting down pat by this point, but with the season starting soon let's brush up on our prop betting basics. Take it away, Geoff...
As fantasy managers we already know a lot about player and team tendencies and how to evaluate matchups. Extending our knowledge to make decisions in the player prop market, where we’re often asked general yes/no questions about player performance (e.g. Will a player score a TD? Will a player go over a certain yardage total?) won’t be a huge stretch for most experienced fantasy managers.
There is a lot more that goes into prop betting than just simple player knowledge and you can check out my primer on prop betting here to learn more about the subject. However, with sportsbooks now offering player props across a wide variety of categories the opportunities are near endless. Sportsbooks don’t have the information, resources or time to adjust all these prop lines to the same efficiency as point spreads making them a great market to focus on.
With all that in mind, let’s start the season off right with a couple of prop bets from the first game between the Rams and Bills below.
💰 Darrell Henderson Jr. over 27.5 rush/receiving yards
One situation I like attacking in the prop betting markets this Thursday is the Rams backfield. Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. have both been banged up but it was Henderson who returned to a full practice first.
Sean McVay said RB Darrell Henderson was able to get a full-speed workout in today, but RB Cam Akers "wasn't able to do that quite yet."
— Sarah Barshop (@sarahbarshop)
Aug 28, 2022
Given Akers injury history, Henderson should see significant snaps in this game and has been a reliable third-down, change of pace back in the past for the Rams. His rush/receiving total here is far smaller than Akers 57.5 (who I like fading) and the over could conceivably be reached on just a couple of touches.
💰 Rams/Bills Single game parlay
- Matthew Stafford over 280.5 passing yards
- Josh Allen over 280.5 passing yards
- Cooper Kupp over 100.5 passing yards
- Cooper Kupp to score a TD
- Game Total over 52.5 points
Let’s have some fun with our last bet and go big with a five-way, single-game parlay. When making one game parlays it’s best to use a narrative to guide your build and, as you can see by the props we’re targeting, I am bullish on points being scored. It’s the beginning of the season (typically a great time for offenses) and we have two of the very best QB/WR combos going at it. Josh Allen and the Bills averaged over 37.0 pass attempts last year and the Rams rush game towards the end of 2021 was non-existent. Let’s take two great quarterbacks to pile up the yards, the best receiver in football to do his thing and play for a fast-paced exciting start to the season.
If you want to make this bet on BetMGM via their one game parlays it pays out +625 as of writing, so a $100 bet would give us $725.00.
Good luck and lets hope the points flow freely this Thursday.
