Hope you got your mayo and coffee ready. It's going to be a long day...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Pete's NFL Draft predictions
- CJ Stroud responds to poor S2 scores
- 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 30 & 31
- Dynasty Prospect: Kendre Miller
- It's 4/27. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
The NFL Draft is finally here, and the rumors are flying fast and furious. It's hard to know what to believe and what is just a smoke screen, so I'm going to hit you with five bold predictions that I think could unfold tonight...
🔔 2 RBs Go In Round 1
Bijan Robinson is a lock to go in the first round, but there's some recent buzz that Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs could sneak into Day 1. Considering he would likely go at the end of the round, there are some very fun landing spots that could vault him into fantasy superstardom.
🔮 Pete's Prediction: The Chiefs take a mulligan on the disastrous Clyde Edwards-Helaire pick and double-down on first-round RBs by selecting Gibbs at pick 31.
📈 JSN Goes Earlier Than Predicted
For whatever reason, the draftnik community is relatively low on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, at least compared to the fantasy community, which has been aggressively drafting him in Round 5 of early Underdog drafts.
Dwain's WR Rookie Super Model has JSN as the No. 1 WR, and I personally think he's the cream of this WR crop by a good margin.
🔮 Pete's Prediction: The Patriots finally draft a good WR and pull the trigger on JSN at pick 14.
🤥 The Will Levis Steam Is All B.S.
Look, I love a good Reddit-sourced rumor as much as the next guy. But I'm just not buying that one of the more flawed QB prospects — and I'm not even talking about eating bananas whole or pouring mayo in coffee — is all of a sudden leapfrogging more NFL-ready guys like C.J. Stroud.
🔮 Pete's Prediction: Levis doesn't go in the top five, and the Titans end up moving up a few spots to get him.
✋ 5 WRs Go In Round 1
The over/under is currently set at 3.5, with plus money coming on the under, meaning the betting markets strongly think three or fewer will come off the board. I know this is a relatively weak draft class, but this line feels offs to me. I explained why I'm hammering the over here.
🔮 Pete's Prediction: JSN, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and a surprise like Jalin Hyatt or Marvin Mims all go on Day 1.
🤯 We See A Blockbuster Trade
Dwain dreamed up three fun ones yesterday, so I want to get in on the fun. It's been a little quiet on the Lamar Jackson front of late, although there was a recent nugget that the Niners explored a trade for Jackson with the Ravens.
I think something goes down with Lamar tonight. It's just too quiet right now...
🔮 Pete's Prediction: The Ravens ship Jackson to the Colts and replace him with Anthony Richardson.
Alright, read on for some of our favorite bets to make, and be sure to tune in live tonight at 7:45 pm ET for our Round 1 Draft Livestream.
🤣 The guys from Ted Lasso try fantasy. Nailed it.
✈️ Our first look at Aaron Rodgers in Jets gear. Looks ready for a darkness retreat.
🧐 Dwain McFarland's favorite rookie RB sleeper. Don't miss out.
📝 CJ Stroud responds to S2 questions. I've used this excuse before, too.
😕 Interesting news from the Commanders. It's been a rough two years for Chase Young.
👴 Rookies this. Rookies that. Don't sleep on these vets.
🚑 Good news for a top QB prospect. Could he end up in Round 1?
⁉️ Fantasy questions before the 2023 NFL Draft. Ian goes team by team.
🎥 The Rams have an unfair advantage with hype videos. Just call up Bryan Cranston?
🌱 Bryce Young keeps it real. Can't argue with that.
💰 The NFL Betting Season Starts Now
You've been chomping at the bit for NFL action since mid-February, and now...
The wait is finally over. The NFL Draft is here, so it's time to start placing your bets.
Our team of NFL analysts has you covered and so does BetMGM.
- Will Anthony Richardson get drafted third overall like Eliot Crist outlined in his mock draft?! You can bet it at +1200.
- Will CJ Stroud be a Colt at the end of the night?! You can bet it at +185.
- But what if you bet on one of these and it doesn't pan out? BetMGM has you covered.
With BetMGM's First Bet Offer, you can get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win.
Your First Bet Offer means win or lose, you’ll still be able to take that money and put it on the Jets to win the Super Bowl at +1400 (or ANY team of your choosing, the Jets are just trendy 😉).
Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist just released V3.0 of his first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history, while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we close things down as we dive into picks 30 and 31.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
This is the first mock draft I have done with Emmanuel Forbes making the first-round cut. Typically 166-pound corners aren’t top selections, but there is no denying the steam he has been getting in the betting market.
Currently sitting at -400 to go in the first round, Forbes gives the Eagles another SEC player so they can reload on defense.
31. Minnesota Vikings (via trade with Kansas City Chiefs): Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
The Vikings lost Adam Thielen this offseason, and while K.J. Osborn had a couple of stellar games in 2022, they need more to support Justin Jefferson with a running mate on the other side.
Hyatt has elite speed and big-play ability that if teams force help to Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, they will have to pay with Hyatt running by defenders.
Speed is undoubtedly one of Hyatt's strong suits, as evident in his exceptional test scores and the fact that over a quarter of his targets came on passes of 20-plus yards down the field.
📣 Summary from The Beast:
A one-year starter at Tennessee, Hyatt was primarily an inside wide receiver in head coach Josh Heupel’s up-tempo, spread offense (89 percent of his snaps came in the slot). After two “development” years in Knoxville, he had a prolific junior season with a school-record 15 touchdowns, becoming the first Volunteers receiver to win the Biletnikoff Award and just the 13th unanimous All-American in Tennessee history (first since Eric Berry).
Hyatt saw a lot of free releases and didn’t run an NFL route tree, but he consistently stretches the field vertically, and cornerbacks struggle to match his vertical burst.
Along with his elite acceleration, he has an uncanny ability to track and adjust to the deep ball, flashing a “go-and-get-it” gear – he led the FBS in receptions of 30-plus yards (15), 40-plus yards (11), 50-plus yards (seven) and 60-plus yards (five).
Overall, Hyatt isn’t a well-rounded receiver and won’t become one overnight, but he is exceptional in two key areas (easy speed and confident ball skills), and his potential for an explosive play at any moment changes the way defenses prepare. In the right role, he can be a productive home-run hitter for an NFL offense.
The Athletic's draft expert Dane Brugler has in-depth profiles and positional rankings on over 400 players in his draft guide affectionately called The Beast. Get that and everything The Athletic has to offer for only $1.99/month.
The NFL Draft is here, but we still need to touch on a few more players in the 2023 rookie class. Today Chris Allen profiles a sleeper RB...
👑 Kendre Miller
- Rookie Draft Ranking: 22nd overall (RB8)
- Underdog ADP: 187.6
- Rookie RB Super Model: 65th percentile
Early-round prospects gain fantasy value with some sense of certainty regarding their expected touches and value to their team. But you can’t win your league on expectations alone.
A key piece to every roster is depth. Backups should occupy your bench on the hopes that they'll be your RB1 in a pinch. Kendre Miller fits that mold for 2023.
Miller took over as TCU’s workhorse RB in his final season. He was 17th in rushing yards across the FBS, but an MCL sprain during the Fiesta Bowl kept him from any athletic testing, so we’ve got lingering injury concerns and a limited body of work to analyze.
However, despite the expected Day 3 draft stock, there’s enough to like about the 5’11, 215-pound Miller to discuss his potential prospects at the NFL level.
📈 Pros
💪 Don't get in his way
Even in 2021, when Miller shared the backfield, he was the grinder of the group and led TCU's RBs in missed tackles forced and yards after contact per Pro Football Focus (PFF). And when his role expanded the following season in 2022, Miller continued to grind through his opponents.
The TCU product displayed exceptional contact balance that allowed him to reach the second level as well as the ability to power through a gap in short-yardage situations. Using a two-year sample, Miller was one of six RBs in the 2023 class who was above average in both yards after contact and forced missed tackles per attempt. Miller can be the ideal early-down complement for any NFL team's backfield.
📉 Cons
😹 Not a serious passing game option
Miller ran 249 routes combined in his 2021 and 2022 seasons, but for all the extra cardio, he earned a measly 30 targets in total. On top of that, his 1.39 yards per route run (YPRR) ranked fifth-worst in this class.
While Miller did excel with the ball in his hands, having logged the seventh-highest yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R), he primarily operated as an emergency check-down option rather than a first or second read out of the backfield or lined up as a receiver.
👑 Fantasy Impact
Miller’s single season as a starter along with a lack of wiggle puts him in the Day 3 range, at best. Any landing spot will likely have an established starter adding more uncertainty to his projected touches.
That said, the opportunity cost associated with scooping him up will be minimal giving Miller more fantasy upside as backup or late-season hammer.
Some comps for Miller include Darrel Williams (5’11, 225 pounds), Khalil Herbert (5’9, 210 pounds), and Zonovan Knight (5’11, 209 pounds). All three saw fantasy relevant early-down, short-yardage, or goal-line roles at various points in 2022 alone. As a result, they managed to fall into the end zone enough times for a few weekly RB1 fantasy finishes.
Miller’s size and excellent contact balance puts him in consideration for a similar role, especially in the event of an injury. And while we can't predict injuries, we can prepare for them by drafting late-round RBs with upside like Miller.
Dalton Kincaid
TE, UtahSTRENGTHS: Smooth, nuanced route runner who sets up defenders, tremendous body control + high-end ball skills, toughness after the catch, formational flexibility
WEAKNESSES: “Dalton Kincaid” sounds like the villainous rich kid in a Disney Channel movie
