An NFL team was sold yesterday. Madness...
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Five dynasty league tips for new players
- OBJ's introductory press conference
- TE Landing Spots: Cowboys and Lions could use one
- Dynasty Rookie Profile: Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
- It's 4/14. Take it away, Ian Hartitz...
One form of fantasy continues to attract true diehards. The real sickos. The sort of people who donāt take days off because deep down inside, they are terrified that their competition might not be affording them the same luxury.
Iām talking about dynasty leagues: The deepest, most time-consuming, all-encompassing ā¦ and ultimately rewarding form of fantasy football out there.
What follows are five general tips for anybody looking to join their first dynasty league this offseason. As always, check out the dynasty section of FantasyLife.com for rookie profiles and more long-term content.
š Triple-check your league rules
Wonky league settings are incredibly prominent in dynasty leagues. Whether itās Superflex, TE premium or some other madness, scoring settings and overall roster construction should influence your draft strategy as much, if not more, than simply evaluating players.
Take Superflex or two-QB leagues: Itās all fun and games punting the position in order to load up on dope skill-position talents ... until youāre entering Week 1 with Gardner Minshew and Jacoby Brissett under center.
Early-round ADP will naturally be sharper than whatās available in the later rounds. There's no need to be a hero and go too far against the grain early, either on purpose or (even worse), simply because you failed to understand exactly what type of league you signed up for.
š¶ Age matters but varies by position
Elderly QBs and TEs are far more likely to keep on keeping on than RBs and WRs playing into their 30s.
Seriously: Having Leonardo DiCaprioās 25-or-under dating philosophy makes a lot of sense when applied to dynasty RB selection.
% of top-12 fantasy producers by age over the last 10 years (PPR per game ranks, minimum 8 games)
š° Draft capital is your friend in general and especially when evaluating incoming rookies
History tells us the higher a player is drafted, the better chance they have of putting up big-time fantasy numbers.
% of fantasy football top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB/WR by draft round regardless of experience 2013-2022 (PPR per-game scoring, min. 8 games)
70%+ of top-performing fantasy scorers were originally drafted inside the top-three rounds across all positions
That last note in the above tweet is the real story: Over 70% of top-performing fantasy scorers across all positions were originally drafted inside the top-three rounds regardless of experience. Madness.
Rookies donāt usually put up top-performing fantasy numbers, but the ones who do are even more condensed into the first three rounds. However ā¦
ā Random high-performing RBs are easier to find than other positions
RB is the only fantasy-relevant position to demonstrate any sort of consistent supply of undrafted goodness.
There have been 22 instances of formerly undrafted RBs putting up top-24 PPR per game numbers compared to 23 combined seasons from top-24 WRs and top-12 QBs and TEs over the past 10 years.
Furthermore, seven high-performing rookie RBs were NOT drafted inside of the top-three rounds over the past 10 years compared to just one QB (Dak Prescott), one WR (Tyreek Hill) and zero TEs.
RBs have the shortest shelf life and are more dependent on their offensive environment than any other fantasy position; donāt be afraid to take a page out of the real-life football playbook and not overly prioritize the position in the early rounds of dynasty drafts in tie-breaker scenarios.
š Friends come and go, but banners hang forever
Weāve established that age matters more in dynasty than re-draft leagues, but sometimes things go a bit too far and high-performing veterans are relegated to extreme late-round status.
Whether itās Keenan Allen regularly being ranked outside the positionās top-36 options despite the reality that heāll continue to be an upside WR2 at worst if heās attached to Justin Herbert or Alvin Kamara occasionally falling out of the positionās top-24 talents because of age and a potential 2023 suspension: There are plenty of elite veterans at all positions being ranked far behind younger, yet objectively inferior, talents looking at specifically 2023.
Thereās a balance to find between building a contender to win RIGHT NOW and maintaining some level of future upside; just donāt necessarily put ALL of your eggs in the latter basket. Itās not illegal to compete for the title during your first dynasty league season, after all.
What follows is a breakdown of the most fantasy-friendly TE landing spots available for free agents, trade targets and draft picks alike. Fantasy is the key word here; weāre looking to see which offenses would optimize fantasy points, not necessarily real-life wins. Take it away, Ianā¦
Supporting cast goodness and ease of pathway to the starting job were the main factors considered. Landing spots are only being considered for 2023. Cool? Cool.
š„ Best available TE landing spots
š¤ 1. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys headline this list due to the reality that Dalton Schultz took his talents to Houston. Only five teams have 75 or more available targets directly from the TE position:
- Raiders (97 targets)
- Cowboys (89)
- Bengals (88)
- Texans (87)
- Titans (76)
While itās not guaranteed that head coach Mike McCarthy keeps the position as involved as ex-offensive coordinator Kellen Moore did, even 90% of Schultzās expected PPR points over the years would still be pretty good for the fantasy business:
- 2020: 9.6 expected PPR points per game (TE14)
- 2021: 10.8 (TE9)
- 2022: 11 (TE5)
The Cowboys donāt need to spend high-end draft capital here with decent enough young options like Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot to keep the boat afloat. Especially in an offense with plenty of other directions to go with the football like CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Brandin Cooks and Tony Pollard.
Still, itād be a lot cooler if Dak Prescott had ANOTHER weapon because why not? Did you see the sort of skill-position talent that non-Patrick Mahomes-led offenses were working with during last seasonās NFC and AFC Championships?
Make it happen, Jerry.
š¤© Dream match: Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer
The most NFL-ready TE in the class would provide some sneaky-YAC goodness alongside a three-down skill set to a perennial top-five scoring offense that declined to replace Schultz through free agency.
š¦ 2. Detroit Lions
The Lions currently employ four TEs and none of them have managed to prove all that much professionally to this point.
Brock Wright: Former undrafted free agent who managed just one game with more than 25 receiving yards after the Hockenson trade.
Shane Zylstra: Former undrafted free agent who popped off for a 5-26-3 receiving line in Week 16 last season. His production in 16 other career games: 9-68-1.
James Mitchell: Mitchellās 11-113-1 receiving line in 14 games as a rookie wasnāt dominant by any stretch of the imagination, just realize his collegiate reviews were largely sterling from a route-running and burst perspective.
Derrick Deese Jr.: Former undrafted free agent who hasnāt played an NFL snap, although his 47-730-4 receiving line during his final season at San Jose State does paint the picture of a TE with some level of receiving upside.
This is life without a full offseason to replace former No. 8 overall pick T.J. Hockenson; itād make a lot of sense if the Lions add another body (or two) to the room with one of their five picks inside the draftās top-81 selections.
š¤ Dream match: Utah TE Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid certainly boasts the receiving upside to improve the teamās current group. Heās THE TE1 in Dwain McFarlandās Rookie TE Super Model.
We've Got Three More Landing Spots
With free agency behind us and the NFL Draft ahead, Dwain McFarland is here to take a look at a few players who saw significant shifts in their dynasty stock this offseason.
š Sam LaPorta
- Rookie Draft ADP: 29 (TE4)
- Underdog ADP: Late Rounds (TE39)
- Rookie TE Super Model: 72nd percentile
š Summary
LaPorta tallied 111 catches for 1,318 yards and four TDs in his final two seasons on a subpar Hawkeye offense. There must be something in the water at Iowa, as the program is notorious for turning three-star recruits into NFL-level talents.
If I'm ever a GM, the first thing I'm doing is hiring whoever was in charge of scouting and developing TEs at Iowa.
George Kittle: 3-star rating, 0 other Power 5 offers
T.J. Hockenson: 3-star rating, 1 other Power 5 offer
Sam LaPorta: 3-star rating, 0 other Power 5 offers
The 22-year-old TE started the draft process as a potential third-rounder but has climbed into the second round, with Daniel Jeremiah moving him inside his top 50 prospects for 2023.
š Pros
š¤° Target-Earning Machine
Sources suggest LaPorta earned his first target while still in his motherās womb.
He garnered target shares of 22%, 24% and 32% over his final three seasons, and while only running 90 routes as a freshman, he earned a target on 23% of them.
No other Power Five TE in this class finished with a higher career targets per route run (TPRR) than the Hawkeye at 25%. He even edged out first-round prospect Michael Mayer who finished his stellar Notre Dame career at 24%.
šŖ Strong Dominator Rating
As a 20-year-old junior, LaPorta took his game to the next level with a 26% dominator rating, accounting for 27% of Iowaās receiving yards and 25% of the TDs. Mayer was the only other Power Five prospect to cross the 20% dominator threshold by age 20.
Click for his Cons and Fantasy Impact!
šŗ Odell Beckham Jr. had his first press conference with the Ravens. He had a message for a certain QB.
š§ The S2 cognitive test is the new "hip" thing in QB evaluation. This top prospect scored higher than Joe Burrow did.
š Making moves. Buying & Selling in Dynasty.
šø An NFL team was sold yesterday. The end of a not-so-great era.
šØ Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy had a message for one of his players. Good news for this WR's fantasy value.
š„ Who's coming for that #1 spot? Are we set for draft night?
š“ The 2023 Senior Bowl Hall of Fame induction class. Take a trip down memory lane.
š¤ A retired QB had some not-so-good things to say about Lamar Jackson. Why can't we all just get along?
š§ Which fantasy draft strategy was best in 2022? Hayden Winks has thoughts.
Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist has put together a finely crafted first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we are spotlighting his No. 6 pick to the Lions...
6.) Detroit Lions - EDGE, Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech, Sr.
- 6ā6, 271lbs, 22 years old
While the Lions wish Will Anderson would fall one more pick, there is an embarrassment of riches for them to select from here.
Tyree Wilson, Jalen Carter, Christian Gonzales and Devon Witherspoon all make sense with this selection ā which is why their odds for the first position drafted for the Lions are -125 for CB and -105 for a defensive lineman.
Aidan Hutchinson looks like a home run pick from last year's draft, and if you combine him with Wilson, the highest-upside pass rusher in this class, the Lions would have one of the best young EDGE duos in football.
