🩹 5 Injuries That Matter

Sometimes the pain of a professional athlete is necessary so that we might experience the pleasure of profiting as totally empathic yet still degenerate sports bettors…

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by The Touchdown Press:

• Injuries: If football didn’t hurt, it wouldn’t be football.
• Best Bets: I’m READY to lose all my money.
• Props! Maybe the most mispriced passing line I’ve ever seen.
• GROUP CHAT: Don’t fade the BIG DOG!
• SNF: “Waiting all day for …”
• It's 9/19. Take it away, Matthew Freedman…

I have an almost maniacal obsession with tracking injury news and attempting to quantify the impact various injuries will have on team-level production and against the spread.

Football (unfortunately) is a violent sport. Every week, players get injured. Some of these injuries matter in an obvious way. (QB injuries, for instance.)

Most injuries, though, don’t get widespread media attention — but they matter, especially because they present us with the opportunity to profit if we can correctly project the extent to which they matter.

In the words of Littlefinger, “Chaos is a ladder.”

Ian Hartitz has a great Week 1 injury roundup that looks mostly at skill-position players. Here are my brief notes on five injuries at other positions that have (in my opinion) meaningful betting implications.

🤠 Texans RT Tytus Howard (hand, IR)

Howard was placed on IR on Wednesday, which me

ans that the Texans are now without three OL starters — Howard, LG Kenyon Green (shoulder, IR), C Scott Quessenberry (knee, IR) — as well as a key backup in C Juice Scruggs (hamstring, IR).

Rookie QB CJ Stroud could be under significant pressure as a road underdog in Baltimore.

🐬 Dolphins LT Terron Armstead (back/ankle/knee, Out)

Armstead dealt with injuries all of last year and is already unable to go for Week 1.

He’s the best player on the No. 20 OL in our Fantasy Life Unit Rankings, and without him, the Dolphins will need to be creative to protect QB Tua Tagovailoa against EDGEs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. 

🐄 LG Tyler Smith (hamstring, Doubtful) & LT Tyron Smith (ankle, Questionable)

Tyler is on the pessimistic side of doubtful after not practicing at all, and Tyron was downgraded from full to back-to-back limited practice to close the week.

I expect Tyron to play after getting a session on Friday, but if he’s out his absence will have a multiplicative negative impact on the Cowboy’s OL.

📉 Commanders EDGEs Chase Young (neck, Out) & EDGE James Smith-Williams (oblique, Questionable)

Young entered the weekend officially questionable, but Ben Standig (The Athletic) has since reported that he will miss at least Weeks 1-2 — and Smith-Williams, who rotates in behind Young, popped up with an injury on Friday.

If both are out, the Commanders will be thin at edge, which might give the Cardinals and presumed starting QB Josh Dobbs a fighting chance to cover.

👎 Falcons CB Jeff Okudah (ankle, Out)

Last year the Falcons were Nos. 29 & 30 in defensive dropback EPA and SR (per RBs Don’t Matter), and this offseason they traded for Okudah — the No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft -- in an attempt to improve their pass defense.

They’ll need to wait at least a week to see if his presence makes a difference, but his absence will likely be a positive for Panthers QB Bryce Young in his first NFL start.

Before kickoff, check out the Fantasy Life Inactives page to know for sure who’s in and who’s out.

Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with his projected spreads for every game and best bets for the slate. Here are his favorite bets, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Steelers +2.5 vs. 49ers (-110, BetMGM)
• Dolphins +3 at Chargers (-110, DraftKings)
• Packers +1.5 at Bears (-110, FanDuel)

Abbreviations

• Against the spread (ATS)
• Return on investment (ROI)
• Expected points added (EPA)
• Success rate (SR)
• Completion percentage over expectation (CPOE)
• Adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A)
• Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA)

Note: Spread projections below as of Saturday night.

🏗 Steelers +2.5 vs. 49ers (-110, BetMGM)

For the 49ers, TE George Kittle (groin) is dealing with an injury, and EDGE Nick Bosa (holdout) could be rusty as he returns to action.

For the Steelers, QB Kenny Pickett looked good in the preseason and seems ready to make a second-year leap.

This is the classic spot for backing Steelers HC Mike Tomlin, who is 73-61-4 ATS (6.6% ROI) at home, 53-30-4 ATS (24.1% ROI) as an underdog, and 15-4-3 ATS (46.5% ROI) as a home underdog for his career (including playoffs, per Action Network).

Projection: +1.4

🐬 Dolphins +3 at Chargers (-110, DraftKings)

The Chargers have a nearly nonexistent home-field advantage, and their run defense is extremely vulnerable: Last year they were No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (0.038) and SR (44.8%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was No. 1 last year in AY/A (9.2) and No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.148) and is 10-5-1 ATS (25.9% ROI) as an underdog.

Projection: +2.3

🧀 Packers +1.5 at Bears (-110, FanDuel)

The Bears last year were No. 32 in defensive DVOA (19.3%) and points allowed (27.2 per game). I expect their defensive line (No. 30) to be outclassed by the Packers’ offensive line (No. 6 in our Unit Rankings).

Even though he has made just one start, Packers QB Jordan Love should benefit from multiple seasons in the same offensive system. In his four brief appearances last year, he completed 66.7% of his passes for 10.2 AY/A.

Packers HC Matt LaFleur is 8-0 ATS (93.2% ROI) against the Bears and an early-season assassin at 12-4 ATS (46.2% ROI) in Weeks 1-4.

Projection: +0.4

More of Freedman’s BEST BETS

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One of the best parts about sports betting is the communal aspect. If you have a group of friends that all bet on the NFL, you can almost guarantee that they have a group chat where they’re discussing their bets throughout the week.

We’re no different here at Fantasy Life, and Matt LaMarca is here with the bets from OUR group chat…

Our betting team — featuring Matthew Freedman, Eliot Crist, Geoff Ulrich, and myself — is routinely discussing our plays in the Fantasy Life Discord. Each of us has plays that we’re passionate about, and the goal is to get the other members on board as well.

Here’s one of our group’s favorite targets for NFL Week 1.

🏈 Titans +3.0 at Saints (-115, BetMGM)

This is my personal favorite play of the week. I locked this bet in earlier this offseason at +3.5, and unfortunately, the line has come down a bit across the industry. That said, you can still get the Titans +3.0, and I think that’s a great number.

The Titans start the year as one of the most undervalued teams in the betting market. They had an epic collapse down the stretch in 2022, but a lot of that can be attributed to their quarterback play. The team did not have a healthy Ryan Tannehill for most of their games, and backups Malik Willis and Joshua Dobbs represented a clear downgrade.

Tannehill will be back at the helm vs. the Saints, and he’ll have a true No. 1 receiver at his disposal in DeAndre Hopkins. Tannehill’s numbers dipped last year without A.J. Brown to lean on, so Hopkins should be able to fill that void. The team also has some intriguing young pass-catchers in Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo, while Derrick Henry remains a massive presence in the backfield.

On the other side, the Saints have emerged as the favorites in the worst division in football. They have a very good chance of winning the NFC South – largely due to their cupcake schedule – but that doesn’t make them a good football team.

The biggest reason for optimism with the Saints is the offseason acquisition of Derek Carr, but I’m not sure that Carr is any good at this point. He was 32nd among quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE, putting him right in the same ballpark as Andy Dalton (29th) and Jameis Winston (34th).

The Titans and Mike Vrabel have historically been excellent as underdogs, and Vrabel and Tannehill are a combined 13-9-1 ATS as dogs during the regular season. I think this is a phenomenal spot for them to start the season off right.

4 more bets from the group chat

The first Sunday Night Football game of the season kicks off today with a high-powered matchup between the Cowboys and Giants, and Geoff Ulrich is here to break it all down from a betting angle…

It’s hard to argue that these two teams don’t make for a great opener. 

On the one side, you have the upstart Giants, who defied talent deficiencies and put together a solid season under first-year HC Brian Daboll. 

The Giants made some major moves in the offseason but remain a polarizing team.

On the other side, you have the Cowboys, who evoke an opinion from everyone.

After they parted ways with respected OC Kellen Moore it’s the full-on Mike McCarthy show for Dallas in 2023. 

Where are these teams headed this year and how will this Week 1 matchup play out? We’ll get to the bottom of every angle below. 

🍎 Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

• Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (-105, BetMGM); Giants +3.5 (-114, BetMGM)
• Total: 45.5
• Moneylines: Cowboys -175, Giants +145

There were almost no major injury concerns for this game until Darren Waller and his pesky hamstrings popped up as questionable on the final report.

Waller’s status remains worth watching but Giants reporter Jordan Raanan did clarify that the questionable tag was from “general tightness” and not an in-practice injury. 

As our man Jonathan Fuller pointed out in the Fantasy Life Game Hub, Waller is a huge addition for the Giants who clearly have plans to make him a focal point of their passing game.

Waller’s 13.4 aDOT from last season is head and shoulders above what any of the Giants receivers were able to produce in 2022. 

Waller is a key but he’s not the only new face for New York. Rookie Jalin Hyatt showcased a legitimate Bo Jackson, Temco Bowl 99 burst in the preseason. He’s listed as the 3rd/4th WR but don’t be shocked if he’s a bigger part of the game plan than expected. 

The Cowboys are again expected to have an elite defense, but the offense will be entering a new era with Mike McCarthy and new OC Brian Schottenheimer. 

The Cowboys also got rid of long-standing bellcow Ezekiel Elliot and are expected to lean on Tony Pollard at RB.

Pollard broke off 31 runs of 10 yards or more in 2022 and will be the primary contain concern for New York, which added LB Bobby Okereke this offseason. 

The Cowboys opened at -2.0 for this game back in May, but it didn’t take long for bettors to jump on the Dallas bandwagon and drive this up to -3.5. It has stagnated since and even moved down to -3.0/+3.0 in spots with bettors likely seeing the +3.5 points as too much for the home team given the Giants’ offseason moves. 

I tend to agree. The Giants at +3.5 are too hard to pass up. 

The Giants offseason was terrific. Dak Prescott is also coming off arguably his worst statistical year in the league – yet there doesn’t seem to be much discussion about his ability to bounce back. Everything about Dallas seems very nonchalant given the change at OC.

Despite New York getting beat twice by Dallas last season they were 1-1 ATS vs. the Cowboys and, overall, went 14-5 ATS in Daboll’s first season as head coach. 

Mike McCarthy-led teams have also tended to start slow as the Cowboys are 0-3 straight up in Week 1 since he took over as head coach.

More Bets for SNF!