📈 5 Massive RB Upgrades

by Peter Overzet

2 years ago

When Mike Boone is trending, your bad RB trade offers won't be offending...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by PFF+

Buying high. When it can be sharp.
The Utilization Report. Turn that RB frown upside down.
Premiere Matchup. The Kenny Pickett era begins.
Regression Session. Bad days ahead for this TE?
Zero-RB leading BBM III.
The Fantasy Life Podcast. Seattle's offense is poppin'.

Heading into Week 5, most fantasy managers are dealing with holes in their rosters thanks to the bumps and bruises of the NFL season — especially at the RB position.

Lucky for us, multiple RBs improved their standing in Week 4 with significant usage upgrades -- as you will see in the Utilization Report below. One of these backs might be a free agent, and another is likely a buy-low option because their fantasy points didn't explode.

The other three upgrades are buy-high candidates after monster Week 4 performances, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't go after them. Yes, their stock is up after big outings, but some fantasy managers will remain skeptical about their ability to keep it up and consider selling high as the move.

That is where the Utilization Report comes in — you know which RBs have roles that can or can't sustain fantasy production. That is called an edge. So what are you still doing reading this intro? Check out the upgrades and get those trade offers rolling; y'all have fantasy leagues to win!

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Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.

White is the clear-cut No. 2 option behind Leonard Fournette, and his role is growing. He posted season-highs in snaps (41%), rushing attempts (43%), route participation (37%) and targets (10%) in Week 4.

The rookie has RB1 upside if something happens to Fournette and is trending towards stand-alone value on par with Tony Pollard. How much would you stake on Pollard if someone dropped him?

White is available in 70%-plus of Yahoo! Leagues and is the No. 1 priority at running back on the waivers because if this hits, it will change your season.

FAB: 25-50%

Moore returned to action with a 95% route participation and 18% target share. Greg Dortch played admirably with Moore out, but this game indicates he is behind Moore.

We have a good time making fun of Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals' offense on the internet, but they rank 14th in points per game (22), sixth in plays per minute (2.32) and fifth in time of possession (55%).

Moore had a 1.2 ADOT as a rookie, but it was 10.4 in Week 4, thanks to two targets over 20 yards. He remained involved in the screen game with two looks and lined up all over the field, including three snaps from the backfield.

We could see Moore operate in a role similar to Curtis Samuel, which meshes well with his yards-after-the-catch skillset. Moore is available in 80% of Yahoo! leagues.

FAB: 20-30%

Singletary controlled the Bills backfield over the last two games. In Week 4, he tallied season-highs in snaps (87%), rushing attempts (55%) and route participation (79%).

Buffalo is hurting at WR after losing Jamison Crowder for the season (ankle). Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox aren’t earning targets at a high clip, which mirrors their historical talent profiles. They might just be tertiary options. Singletary has 18% and 16% target shares in the last two weeks.

In his last eight games with 70%-plus snaps, he has delivered RB29, RB20, RB14, RB7, RB10, RB5, RB4 and RB23 finishes.

Singletary is a mid-range RB2 heading into Week 5, go make a trade offer if you need RB help.

Penny has three games with a 67%-plus snap share. An unexpected development for the veteran back is his growing role in the passing game. He handled 56% of the LDD opportunities in Week 4 with Travis Homer out.

Kenneth Walker III remains a threat to push for work as the season progresses, but right now Penny is riding high along with the rest of the Seahawks’ offense in their new up-tempo attack that is averaging 66 regulation plays per game over the last two weeks.

Penny is a high-end RB2 moving forward.

Jacobs took over a gargantuan workload on his way to 34.4 points in Week 4. If this utilization holds, he will join elite names like Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey.

His rush share has been robust all season (80%), but he picked up 100% of the two-minute offense against Denver and registered a juicy 73% route participation.

In a top-10 scoring offense, Jacobs moves into high-end RB2 territory. If Week 5 looks similar, he will climb to mid-range-RB1 status.

Henry has 23% and 24% target shares in the last two games, with three targets coming on screens (one was called back). The veteran back also picked up 44% of the two-minute offense in Week 4.

The Titans are seeking ways to spruce up their lackluster passing attack with their RB1. Henry is currently on pace for 47 targets, but if the last two weeks are any indication, we could see something closer to 60 – which would be huge for his fantasy stock.

Henry is a mid-range RB1 but will push for high-end status if the receiving work sticks.

😡 Off to a 1-3 or 0-4 start? It's time to get honest with yourself and take action.

😢 The breakout workload was oh so close. The fantasy gods can be cruel.

😵 The Lions rank 1st in points per game. Can they keep this up? Signs point to yes.

🎰 Didn't draft an RB until Round 8 in the BBM III? Better check your lotto ticket.

📈 Are things trending up in Carolina? Probably not, but this is very nice to see.

🥰 Dynasty bros are holding onto Kyle Pitts. What is all the fuss about?

❓ How can the Broncos replace Javonte Williams? Marcas & Dwain break it down on the Fantasy Life Podcast.

⛔ If you have this QB, you're better off running the ball. This is bad.

📋 One cool stat from every team in Week 4. Umm. Who leads all TEs in targets?

Each week we'll feature a premiere matchup on the slate and break it down from all angles. Today, new Fantasy Life contributor Chris Allen tackles the tilt between the Steelers and Bills.

The pickings for a premiere matchup were slim this week. Honestly, I had the Texans-Jaguars game picked until Monday afternoon. I think Trevor Lawrence had another fumble by then. But the Steelers' quarterback change brought some intrigue to the matchup. Kenny Pickett may have looked “Trubisky-esque” in his debut, but the positives warranted a deeper look.

Now, don’t get me wrong. Starting your NFL career with an interception feels like a bad first step. But check the ball placement. I’ll blame him for the decision to throw but not the result. Coincidentally, the numbers agree with my eyes.

Per PFF, Pickett’s 84.6% adjusted completion percentage (accounting for accuracy and drops) was third amongst all passers in Week 4. He had zero turnover-worthy plays. I can chalk up a few bad plays to his situation, as it was his first taste of NFL action. And it was only just half of the game. However, his metrics outside of the interceptions are enough to make Sunday an interesting match.

We got three full weeks of Mitch Trubisky. After Week 3, he was bottom-10 in nearly every passing stat. The Steelers were dead last in yards per drive. But Pickett turned the offense around in two quarters.

Pickett outperformed Trubisky nearly across the board. He was more efficient (8th-highest EPA per play) with a similar deep-ball rate. And, for reference, 36.2 yards per drive would rank 9th in the league. Plus, the intangibles like slightly looking off a defender to move the sticks. Again, I’ll caveat the positivity with it being a portion of a game. But they’ll need all the good vibes to keep up with the Bills.

The Bills’ offense continues to evolve without Brian Daboll pulling the strings. Heading into Week 3, Allen hovered at the average zone coverage rate. But he was still dicing up secondary coverages by focusing on the intermediate parts of the field. Allen is sixth in EPA per dropback on throws between 5 and 15 air yards, via SportsInfoSolutions. But defenses threw another wrench at him this season.

Allen’s 23.4% blitz rate (five or more pass rushers) was right below the league average in 2021. He’s seeing the 11th-highest rate so far this season. Yet again, Allen’s asked to find new answers to a test he has to answer in less than 2.5 seconds.

And he’s doing it again, but not as I expected.

Devin Singletary is the team’s pass-catching running back. He’s tied for the team's second-highest target share and total red-zone targets. Plus, Singletary leads all non-Allen rushers in red-zone attempts. But Singletary’s opportunity at face value isn’t the reason for his prominence in the offense. It’s how the offense is deploying him.

Singletary’s 20.8% TPRR over the last two weeks isn’t earth-shattering. He didn’t turn into Austin Ekeler. However, his formation route rate (routes run from the perimeter or slot) indicates otherwise. Singletary’s 15 snaps out wide or from the interior are more than Ekeler’s during the same time frame.

He’s what we expected James Cook to be, but better.

Pittsburgh may be able to dial up some pressure, but Allen’s got too many options down the field. And if the pass rush gets home, Singletary’s ability to create after the catch (fourth in YAC) can keep the sticks moving. Buffalo may be a two-touchdown favorite, but the Pickett and offense can make it a worthwhile watch.

When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.

Through the first four weeks of the season Joe Mixon has had one of the most valuable roles in football but has only delivered RB16 production. He has averaged 26 opportunities (carries + targets) per game and has had a bigger role in the passing game than was generally predicted.

Despite the massive workload, Mixon has failed to produce fantasy points at the rate we would expect. Per PFF, of the 49 RBs who have at least 20 rushing attempts on the season he ranks:

1st in expected fantasy points
2nd in rushing attempts
3rd (tied) in targets
48th in yards per attempt
48th in yards after contact per attempt
49th in rushing grade

Essentially, his role is as good as it gets but the efficiency has been as bad as it gets. Something has to give here and I believe it is more likely that the efficiency will improve before he loses the role.

It is tempting to overreact to these 4 weeks but he is a 26 year old RB with a strong NFL track record so betting on some positive regression makes sense. Better efficiency will make him an RB1 again and if the Bengals offense can find their groove he could be a league winner.

Just as we all predicted in the offseason, Will Dissly has been a top-8 TE in half PPR, scoring for 3 of the first 4 weeks.

He has done this despite running a route on fewer than 50% of Geno Smith’s dropbacks and earning just 12 total targets so far. He is splitting time with both Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson but has run hot by catching 100% of his targets and converting them into 3 TDs already.

Not only has Dissly outperformed expectations, but so has the Seahawks' offense. While they may not be the dumpster fire we anticipated, they are still going to be a below-average offense that won’t create a ton of scoring opportunities.

A part-time TE in a bad offense is unlikely to be a consistent fantasy producer, so if you were lucky enough to stream Dissly for any of his good games so far, don’t fool yourself into thinking you have an every-week starter. And if he’s on your waiver wire, I wouldn’t rush to pick him up either.