🔎 A Backfield We Can't Ignore

IT'S REVENGE GAME WEEK. LET'S GO...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• Solving the Niners backfield
• Morning Download: Pete gets you caught up
• The WR who says he can't be stopped
• Eliot's favorite stack: Dolphins/Niners
• SNF: Our SNF Picks & Plays
• Player Matchups: Brian Robinson & Garrett Wilson
• It’s 12/4. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

We have a few important game-time decisions today—Deebo Samuel, Joe Mixon, and Josh Jacobs (more on them in the Morning Download)—but there's one really interesting situation we need to pay attention to and that is the 49ers backfield...

🤔 Tevin Coleman NOT elevated; 2 RBs need to be stashed

While many assumed the Niners would activate Coleman from their practice squad for today's game vs. the Dolphins, the team is electing to roll with just the two rookies—Tyrion Davis-Price and Jordan Mason—behind Christian McCaffrey.

This is very interesting for fantasy because it likely means one of two things:

1.  CMC, who has only been playing 63% of the snaps in San Fran, is headed for a bellcow role similar to what he enjoyed against the Rams in Week 8 OR
2. The Niners are really happy with what they've seen from TDP and Mason, and one of them will have a meaningful role vs. the Dolphins (as well as big time contingent upside in this backfield as the handcuff)

Both rookies should be stashed in the event scenario two plays out, although it is a tough riddle to crack. Davis-Price has been a healthy scratch since Week 7, while Mason has been active because of his role on special teams. 

Earlier in the week, I slightly leaned TDP if forced to choose, but considering how well Mason ran at the end of last week's game vs. the Saints and rumblings from the team, I'm inclined to think he'll be the #2 today.

It may seem like splitting hairs, but there's both standalone value up for grabs and league-winning upside in this backfield if CMC were to get dinged up down the stretch.

Read on for more of the biggest fantasy news stories from last night and our favorite DFS plays and sports bets for today's action.

• GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about each game all in one place.
• INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
• RANKINGS - Full Week 13 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool and we'll tell you the best option:
• PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.

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💰 Matt LaMarca is betting: Steelers +1

The Steelers stand out as one of the most undervalued teams in football at the moment. They’ve had a dismal season, but they’re a completely different team with T.J. Watt in the lineup. They’ve gone 3-1 when they’ve had Watt available – including a win over the Bengals – but they’re just 1-6 without him.

The Steelers were able to take care of business against the Colts in Week 12, and I like their chances of doing it again vs. the Falcons. Atlanta is technically still alive in the race for the NFC South title, but don’t think that makes them good. They rank 31st in yardage differential this season, with only the Texans being outgained by more yards per game this season. I don’t like their chances of moving the ball in this matchup with Kyle Pitts now on the shelf.

Not in one of these four states?

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📁 Deebo Samuel trending in right direction

There's nothing worse than a game-time decision for a late game, but that's exactly what we are getting with Samuel. That said, the overnight reports have been much more promising than the initial ones on Friday:

49ers WR Deebo Samuel, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a deep thigh bruise, plans to play vs. Miami, per source. The 49ers didn’t think Samuel would be able to play until Friday, but he has made big improvements and, barring a pre-game setback, he plans to go today.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Dec 4, 2022

📁 Josh Jacobs a GTD

After his eruption last week, Jacobs is still dealing with a calf issue that limited him in practice all week. He's going to work out pre-game to see if he can go, and it sounds like there's optimism that he'll play, but make sure you have a backup plan waiting in the wings.

Be mindful that this is a later game today, so your option will need to be playing in the 4pm games or SNF/MNF. I've been stashing rookie Zamir White to play if Jacobs can't go.

📁 Joe Mixon might miss again

Mixon has still not been cleared from the concussion protocol, and sources are pessimistic that he will play today vs. the Chiefs. If Mixon misses, Samaje Perine would once again possess RB1 upside in this juicy game with the highest over/under on the slate:

On the bright side, WR Ja'Marr Chase is fully healthy and will play today. 

📁 Jameson Williams is back

The 12th overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft will make his debut on Sunday for the Lions. Considering he only has three practices under his belt, there's no reason to start him this weekend in fantasy (or on DraftKings, where he's oddly expensive). That said, he has a prospect profile that indicates he could be a league-winner down the stretch. Make sure he's not floating around on your waiver wire. 

📁 Misc. files

Things could be tough for Tua today without key pieces from his offensive line.

Despite missing some practice this week, Antonio Gibson is expected to play.

It probably doesn't matter, but I'm legally obligated to update you on the Broncos WRs, so here you go:

Broncos WR news:
*Courtland Sutton (illness) felt better today. Optimism he'll play vs Ravens.
*Jerry Jeudy (ankle) moving in right direction to play Sunday. Needs to pass pregame test.
*WR Brandon Johnson promotedfrom P-Squad to 53.
*KJ Hamler (hamstring) placed on IR.
#9sports

— Mike Klis (@mikeklis)
Dec 3, 2022

If you're wondering how bad things are for the Broncos in fantasy, look at a couple of the WRs going ahead of Courtland Sutton in Underdog Fantasy drafts this weekend.

🛑 The WR who says he can't be stopped. Do you trust him coming off injury?

🚑 Bad news for the Rams. And yet it still can get worse.

⁉️ Where will Odell land? He's making the rounds.

📈 Don't be scared off by the 49ers' defense. Find out why Tyreek Hill could break the slate. 

🎸 An ode to Isiah Pacheco? The song we didn't know we needed.

📻 Need your Start/Sit questions answered? Join Dwain McFarland & Jordan Fiegleman on AMP at 11 am ET! Every question will be answered!

😭 The Broncos are down so bad. This is your promo?!

🎉 You think the Jets players are happy about the QB change? Sure seems like it.

😁 The Chiefs & Bengals are rightfully the chalk in DFS this week. But this game has sneaky upside. 

When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...

🚀Tua Tagovailoa > Jaylen Waddle (Bring Back: Brandon Aiyuk)

The 49ers have one of the league's most formidable defenses, so people are getting scared off of one of the most concentrated, highest-scoring offenses. The Dolphins have had seven games this year with Tua Tagovailoa playing the entire game, averaging 30.4 points per game, which would rank first ahead of the Chiefs (29.6).

While the 49ers' defense is allowing the fewest points per game this season, they have only played two top-12 offenses on the season: 1) the Seahawks in Week 2 before Geno Smith hit his stride, and 2) against the Chiefs, who hung 44 points on them with Patrick Mahomes having 423 passing yards on the day. 

The 49ers' defense has DFS players ignoring Tua, who comes in with just 2% projected rostership per Run the Sims, his lowest mark in weeks. This is a mistake contrarian players should look to exploit.

The 49ers are a pass-funnel defense, with teams throwing at the seventh-highest rate against them (58.1%). This plays right into what the Dolphins want to do, as they pass at a 60.3% clip this season. The Dolphins aren't shy in shootouts, either. In games where Dolphins' opponents have scored 20 or more points, Tua is averaging 384.3 passing yards per game.

While I love Tyreek Hill and am not against double stacking him, I am more drawn to Jaylen Waddle. With just 4% projected rostership, Waddle has slate-breaking upside. In the last two years, he is averaging over 100 yards per game when Tua throws for over 300 yards per game. And in wins this year where opponents score 20+, he is averaging 120 receiving yards per game. 

The 49ers' best runback option is Brandon Aiyuk, who has been their go-to guy against man coverage. He leads the team with 456 receiving yards against man coverage, accounting for 69.9% of his production on the year.  On the year, the Dolphins are playing man coverage on 40% of their snaps, the second most in football.

It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Colts @ Cowboys, take it away, LaMarca..

📺 Colts at Cowboys (-10.5) – 44.5 total

Are the Cowboys the best team in the NFC? It’s definitely possible. They check every box that you’re looking for in a Super Bowl contender.

It starts with their ferocious defense. They rank second in the league in points per game allowed and seventh in yards per game allowed, and they’re first in defensive DVOA. They boast arguably the best pass-rush in football, spearheaded by super-stud Micah Parsons. He has 12 sacks in 11 games this season, despite not playing as a traditional pass-rusher for the entire game. He won the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year, and he’s expected to add a Defensive Player of the Year trophy to his mantle this year. 

Their offensive numbers aren’t quite as impressive, but it’s important to remember that Cooper Rush started five games for them. Since Dak Prescott has returned to the lineup, the team has rattled off at least 24 points in five straight games. They’ve gone for at least 40 points in two of them, so this team has the potential to light up the scoreboard when they need to.

On the other side, the Colts have had a tumultuous season. The offseason addition of Matt Ryan has not solved their quarterback problem, and the team will almost certainly have another new starter next year. Hiring Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach gave the team a bit of life, but they came crashing back to reality last week versus the Steelers. They managed just 290 yards of total offense and suffered a seven-point home loss.

This line is obviously a lot of points, but there are reasons to believe the Cowboys can cover. For starters, Prescott has historically been one of the best quarterbacks in the league against inferior competition. He owns a record of 23-9-2 against the spread, facing teams with a sub-.500 record, making him the second most profitable QB in that split. The only QB with a better ATS record against losing teams is Tom Brady, and if I remember correctly, that guy is pretty good at football.

The Cowboys also have the rest advantage in this spot. They’ve had a bit of extra time off after playing on Thanksgiving, while the Colts are on shorter rest than usual after playing on Monday Night Football. That hasn’t historically had a huge impact, but with there already being such a gulf in talent between these two squads, it could matter.

💰 Not sure if you missed it, but we just launched our new Game Hub!

We have preveiws like this for every game, along with matchup stats, betting picks and more!

Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...

🔥 Garrett Wilson @ MIN

If last week's game was any indication for the Jets, Mike White will be around for a LONG time for the Jets. Garrett Wilson will lead the charge if he has any say. Or for any QB that isn’t Zach Wilson. Frankly. It’s a low bar.

In 2022, Wilson has cleared every bar in front of him and took over top billing in the Jets’ passing game. Wilson’s 22.7% target share is firmly ahead of all other options for the Jets, and it hasn’t helped that Elijah Moore had that “doghouse” in him early this season. That cemented how locked-in Wilson is as the top target, accelerating the development process. Add in that Wilson has been no worse than WR16 in three of the last four weeks, and that’s not just clearing the bar; that’s soaring beyond it.

The Vikings have the fourth-worst DVOA against WR1s this season and give up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing WR in fantasy. While the Vikings have been very successful this season, teams can easily throw on them.

With numerous members of the Vikings’ secondary on IR, White to Wilson should be a VERY fruitful connection in Week 13.

🔥 Brian Robinson @ NYG

While Commanders RB Brian Robinson brought the “big hat” phenomenon to the forefront of most football fans this week, he’s not just the “big hat” guy.

In Week 13, Robinson will prove that.

Where I’m from, big hats equal big opportunity, and that’s what Robinson’s been getting as of late for the Commanders. He’s averaged over 20 touches the last three weeks and notched his first 100-yard rushing game last week. His Week 13 opponent, the Giants, is just 26th in rush DVOA on the season and has given up gaudy numbers to opposing RBs in 2022. Kenyan Drake’s 119-yard outburst in Week 6 and Jamaal Williams’ three-TD game in Week 11 was among them, but the Giants have given up less than 75 yards to a team’s top RB just TWICE this season in 11 contests.

As one of the most run-heavy teams in the league since Taylor Heinicke assumed the starting QB role (fifth-lowest pass rate over expected at -9.4%) against a bad Giants run defense, look for the Commanders to play it conservatively with their game plan. It’s something you can hang your (big or otherwise) hat on.

Spot the difference

— Andrew Mackens (@AndrewMackens)
Dec 3, 2022