🤯 A BIG Surprise For The Niners

Did you know Jaxon Smith Njigba's brother plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates?? (h/t)...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

• Is Brock Purdy on track for Week 1?
• OverReaction Monday: The Falcons have a lot to lose...
• Where does Nuk want to play?
• History of Draft Capital: QB & RBs...
• 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Pick 7 & 8
• It's 4/17. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

We've previously called San Francisco the messiest QB room in the entire league.

We've doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down on Trey Lance in drafts.

And when I say we, I'm very much evoking the "royal we" because many fantasy footballers (who are far less stubborn than me) have moved on from ever thinking Lance will deliver on the massive expectations he's had thrust upon him since getting drafted third overall by San Francisco in the 2021 draft.

A huge part of my Lance bullishness hinged on the fact that Brock Purdy, who completed surgery for his torn UCL on March 10th, wouldn't be ready for the start of the season.

My simple take was that if you give Lance a runway to win some games out of the gate in a Shanahan-led offense with arguably the best weaponry in the league, then the fantasy points will follow suit.

 

If Brock Purdy was healthy, he should start. I don’t think anyone has said differently ever, that includes Trey Lance himself. I’d start Purdy if he was healthy; he’s earned it. But he’s not healthy. Now Trey Lance has an opportunity to earn his spot back. It’s simple.

— Ryan G Hensley (@ryanghensley) 
Apr 15, 2023

Well, over the weekend, ESPN's Nick Wagoner and Stephanie Bell reported on an update from Purdy's camp that paints a much rosier picture than before, including Purdy avoiding the dreaded Tommy John reconstruction surgery:

"To find a way to have surgery and get the ligament healed up—but also cut down the recovery time—I think is huge."

49ers QB, Brock Purdy

The Niners are still playing things close to the vest with their recovery timeline forecasting—it sounds like they are aiming for mid-June to solidify a target return date—but one thing is for certain, and it absolutely pains me to type this...

If Purdy is healthy, he'll be the Week 1 starter.

"I think Brock has earned the right with the way he played that he's probably the leader in the clubhouse at that. I'll let Kyle make those kinds of decisions, but I know when we talk, Brock has probably earned that right to be the guy. If we were to line up, he'd probably take that first snap."

John Lynch (in March)

Purdy's ADP of 207.8 in the first Big Board and 82.5 in the Superflex Big Board are both perfectly fine prices if you don't have Lance Derangement Syndrome like me. 

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm hoping to buy the forthcoming Lance ADP dip...

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall worries about the Falcons...

🎲 The Atlanta Falcons have a lot to lose

Since the 2023 offseason began it feels like the Atlanta Falcons have made headlines every week making moves to improve their roster. From signings like QB Taylor Heinicke to DL Calais Campbell and, most recently, OLB Bud Dupree it’s a clear message that head coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot are sending: watch out.

But no matter how good of an offseason they had, there’s still that little voice in the back of our heads wondering, “what about the quarterback situation?”

It’s a valid question, too. The Falcons didn’t win many games in 2022, but they were still in playoff contention inside a mediocre division, which ultimately hurt them in the long run. Marcus Mariota was the starting quarterback until Week 15 when the team turned to rookie QB Desmond Ridder. Let’s all say this next part together: you can’t properly evaluate a young quarterback after four NFL starts. Could you have an idea? Certainly. But you really have no concrete answer. Ridder’s first two starts were against the Saints and Ravens — two defenses that finished eighth and seventh in defensive DVOA, respectively. 

The team will hope to find those answers with Ridder this year and signed a solid backup in Taylor Heinicke just in case things don’t work out. However, if the opportunity presents itself then the Falcons, like many other teams, shouldn’t pass on the idea of drafting a quarterback this year. No, don’t sell the farm to be in contention for the top three QBs, BUT realize the situation you’re in. According to ESPN, the Falcons remain involved with the top quarterbacks in this draft.

Personally, I want Ridder to succeed. With Tyler Allgeier, Drake London and Kyle Pitts *sigh* you can see where this team could be exciting. But hopefully the decision to continue starting Mariota in 2022 over seeing more of Ridder doesn’t come back to bite them. Fingers crossed. 

🧃 A juicy rumor involving Mr. Unlimited. What could have been...

🛬 A buzzy rookie WR is visiting with Baltimore? They could use his help.

 🤷‍♂️ Where does DeAndre Hopkins want to be traded to? Some pretty good clues.

🌡️ Speaking of rookie WRs...how about Dwain's model? So hot right now.

🐬 The Dolphins sign...the chosen one? Yes, literally.

🎉 The surprise team who was close to signing OBJ. More Rodgers bait?

🤔 The Commanders already chose their starting QB? This would be the smart choice.

Over 70% of top-performing fantasy scorers across all positions were originally drafted inside the top-three rounds regardless of experience. The rates are even high for rookies. Today, Ian Hartitz breaks down who have been the exceptions to this and what it might mean for the incoming 2023 class...

📜 Quarterback

Only three rookie QBs have finished as top-12 fantasy scorers over the past 10 years: 2016 Dak Prescott (QB9), 2019 Kyler Murray (QB11) and 2020 Justin Herbert (QB7). The latter two quarterbacks went first and sixth overall, while Prescott slipped to the fourth round and only started because Tony Romo suffered a back injury in the preseason.

Moving our timeline back just two years leads to 2012 Robert Griffin III, 2012 Andrew Luck (17.3), 2012 Russell Wilson (17.4) and 2011 Cam Newton also being included.

All but Herbert averaged at least 25 rushing yards per game in college and earned their starting job ahead of Week 1: It’s been awfully difficult for pure pocket passing rookies OR especially raw QBs forced to start the season on the bench to make a big-time difference in fantasy land. There are a handful of landing spots with day one starting opportunities, although some of the more luxurious offensive environments (Detroit, Washington, Atlanta) might not necessarily pull the trigger too early on the position come April 27.

2023 rookie notes: One man stands far above the rest when it comes to rushing ability at the position: Florida QB Anthony Richardson, who already finds himself near the top of my rushing QB tiers thanks to his galaxy-smashing combine performance and demonstrated ability ro rack up yards in a hurry on the ground.

 

ANTHONY RICHARDSON WAS UNSTOPPABLE ✈️

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) 
Oct 16, 2022

📜 Running Back

A whopping 32 rookies have posted top-24 PPR per-game production over the past 10 years (min. 8 games).

Still, 25 of 32 (78%) were selected inside the first three rounds.

The only exceptions:

• 2013 Zac Stacy (RB20)
• 2015 Karlos Williams (RB22)
• 2016 Jordan Howard (RB9)
• 2018 Phillip Lindsay (RB13)
• 2020 James Robinson (RB5)
• 2021 Elijah Mitchell (RB14)
• 2022 Dameon Pierce (RB20)

Each of these backs benefited from fantasy-friendly landing spots and managed to make the most out of their respective opportunities.

RB is the only position to demonstrate any sort of consistent supply of undrafted goodness: There have been 22 instances of formerly undrafted RBs putting up top-24 PPR per game numbers compared to 23 combined seasons from top-24 WRs as well as top-12 QBs and TEs over the past 10 years.

There have certainly been more diamonds in the rough at RB than other positions. And yet, phrases like “this year’s James Robinson” would probably be more accurate with “decade” as the denoted time span.

What about WRs and TEs???

Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist has put together a finely crafted first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history, while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we are spotlighting his No. 7 and No. 8 picks.

7. Las Vegas Raiders - CB, Devon Witherspoon, Illinois, Sr.  

• 5’11, 181lbs, 22 years old
   

While Jimmy Garoppolo is unlikely to be the QB the Raiders need to turn things around, there are no alternatives presently on the board. 

The Raiders' defense is in dire need of reinforcement on the back end, having given up a staggering 242.9 passing yards per game during the 2022 season, the fourth most.

Devon Witherspoon opened at -250 to be the first corner off the board, but has caught a ton of steam in recent weeks, currently sitting as the -200 favorite to be the first CB off the board.

8. Atlanta Falcons - RB, Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons, Jr.

• 5’11, 215lbs, 21 years old 
• Rookie Rank: RB:1, Superflex: 1  

While I would not select a running back in the top 10, I am not in charge of picking for the Atlanta Falcons.

As ESPN’s Jordan Reid says in his latest mock draft “Since general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith took over in 2021, they have placed value on taking the best player available in Round 1.” 

Robinson checks in as NFL Draft guru Daniel Jeremiah’s third overall player and would fit the model of the Falcons' recent draft history.

Robinson is a generational prospect with little to no holes in his game and the Falcons run first mentality would be a dream fantasy landing spot. The Falcons threw the ball 13.1% below expectations last season, the second-lowest PROE in football. That was with a stable of journeyman running backs and a 5th-round rookie in Tyler Allgeier, not the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson.

Robinson to the Falcons would nuke any value Allgeier has. 

The Falcons have dropped from +3300 to +225 to be the landing spot for Robinson, and while the value is gone, we can all agree, he would look awesome in a Falcons jersey. 

Who goes No. 9???

We're partnering with The Athletic to bring Fantasy Life readers samples from Dane Brugler's MASSIVE draft guide, The Beast! 

Need more from Dane? EZ, sign up for The Athletic. Pay $1.99. Get the most comprehensive draft guide out there. 

📢 Summary from The Beast:

A three-year starter at Texas, Robinson was the lead back in head coach Steve Sarkisian’s spread RPO offense, which utilizes both zone and gap principles. 

With his natural ability to sort, cut and burst, Robinson has the instinctive feel and contact balance to set up defenders and force missed tackles (led the FBS with 104 forced missed tackles in 2022). He is a chore to bring down for defenders thanks to his natural run strength, although he does need to improve his nuance and finish as a pass blocker. 

Overall, Robinson is the complete package as both a runner and receiver with vision, instincts and elusive traits that will translate well to the NFL. He is one of the most talented players in the draft class.

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