📈 A Big WR Upgrade

For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Jambys:

• Increased opportunity for some talented dudes...
• Rankings Update. Pollard will make you holler.
• Dear Pete. Fishing lessons.
• Bets from the group chat. Smashing rushing overs.
• JM’s Player Grid from OWS. This QB is the Key
• Its 10/29. Take it away Dwain McFarland...

This year has been a tough season on the injury front and Week 8 is no different.

Sometimes it even feels like the fantasy gods are specifically targeting us. However, one player's loss can be another's gain — especially on teams with other highly talented options.

Two such options stick out in a big way in Week 8.

🚀 WR – Tee Higgins

Ja'Marr Chase won't play this weekend due to hip and labrum injuries. Higgins has a 24% target share in five healthy games.

The 2020 second-round pick is playing at a high level, ranking 11th in yards per route run (YPRR) and 13th in PFF receiving grade out of 51 WRs with 200 routes in 2022.

The Bengals could slightly alter their game plan with Chase out, but so far this season, they pass the ball more than any other team on plays when the score is within three points in non-overtime play.

Passing is this team's identity, and Joe Burrow is playing at an extremely high level, averaging 300 yards passing per game (second-most).

Higgins ranks as the No. 6 WR in Week 8 – five spots ahead of industry consensus.

💥 TE – George Kittle

All of the 49ers' weapons get a slight upgrade this weekend with Deebo Samuel (hamstring) out of action. However, Kittle gets the biggest bump for three reasons:

• Kittle is showing signs of life over the last two games, with 16.3 and 21.8 fantasy points.
• Over the last 10 games without Samuel, Kittle has a 28% target rate. For reference, the average top-3 TE had a 23% target rate over the last 10 years.
• He has a 26% target rate against the Rams in their last five matchups. Los Angeles plays the most zone coverage in the NFL (85%), and Kittle's target rate is 28% against zone over the last four seasons vs. 22% against man.

Kittle is the No. 1 TE and is in a SMASH spot.

For more Week 8 upgrades and downgrades, check out the Rankings Update below.

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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.

📈 Risers

📈 RB – Tony Pollard

The Cowboys are listing Ezekiel Elliott (knee) as doubtful, opening up the door for an every-down workload for Pollard – who has the No. 3 PFF rushing grade (90.1) out of RBs with at least 50 rushing attempts.

The Cowboys have the fifth-best team total and are favored by more than a TD. Dallas runs the ball more than the NFL average in close (+4) and leading game scripts (+6), and teams run the ball 31.6 times per game in non-overtime play against Chicago – the most in the NFL. 

Efficiency, utilization, game environment and matchup align for Pollard this weekend, making him a must-start SMASH play as my RB4 overall.

📈 RB – D’Onta Foreman

Foreman worked behind Chuba Hubbard last weekend until an ankle injury opened the door in the fourth quarter. With Hubbard ruled out, Foreman is in line for the lion's share of touches. 

In a good offense, that would equate to a low-end RB1 rating, but in Carolina, all bets are off. However, volume is king at RB, and the Falcons are an average run defense.

If you don’t need Foreman, selling high remains a viable move, but his value should hold with Hubbard out if you need a spot start.

Foreman is a low-end RB2.

📈 RB – Eno Benjamin

Benjamin has finishes of RB6, RB21 and RB23 in games without James Conner and Darrel Williams. Conner is out, and Williams (knee) is a game-time decision.

Benjamin averaged 81% of snaps, 50% of rush attempts and 12% of targets over the three-game stretch, which is a solid RB2 utilization profile. 

He is a low-end RB2 with upside should Williams not suit up.

📈 RB – Tyler Allgeier

Allgeier quietly expanded his workload in Week 7 with a season-high 62% of Atlanta’s rushing attempts. He also led the team in short-down-distance (SDD) work over the last three games, which correlates with touches near the goalline and TDs.

📈 WR – Brandon Aiyuk

Historically, Aiyuk has not been good against the Rams, garnering a 16% target rate. However, the 49ers won’t have Deebo Samuel.

In games without Samuel over the last two years, Aiyuk has a 23% TPRR – a four-point percentage bump over his average.

Aiyuk is a mid-range WR2.

📈 WR – Tyler Boyd

Boyd gets a bump with Ja’Marr Chase out for Week 8 against the Browns. From 2018 to 2020, the veteran WR was a 21% TPRR player averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game. He posted two top-18 finishes.

Those factors make Boyd a low-end WR2.

📈 WR – Marquise Goodwin

Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are game-time decisions against the Giants in a late-kickoff game.

The 32-year-old WR  isn’t a big target earner (16% TPRR), but he offers big-play upside, and Geno seems to like him.

Goodwin is a high-end WR4.

📉 Fallers

📉 QB – Geno Smith

Smith might be without Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.

The Giants allow only 14.8 fantasy points via the air in non-overtime play, which is a below-average matchup.

Smith has been a revelation, but this week, his ranking falls outside of the top 12.

📉 WR – Tyler Lockett

Lockett (hamstring/ribs) was limited in practice and is officially a game-time decision.

Lockett falls nine spots to WR22 – think of him as a boom-bust WR3.

Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Pete is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com

Dear Pete, can you give me a winning DFS lineup? I am terrible at building winning DFS lineups. HELP? — DFS Noob

DEAR DFS NOOB: I appreciate you shooting your shot and getting right to the point. Here’s the thing, though. If I knew the winning DFS lineup for Week 8, 1) I wouldn’t give it to you, and 2)  I wouldn’t be writing this column right now. I’d be on a beach, re-reading Haruki Murakami novels and pounding margaritas while counting my millions. 

DFS (and DFS tournaments, specifically) is a complicated game with many variables that must be accounted for. It’s not as simple as just “playing the best plays,” despite what the trolls in the YouTube comments tell you. What the field is doing with their lineups is equally important to what you are doing with yours.

DFS is like getting chased by a bear in the woods. You don’t need to outrun the bear, you need to outrun the rest of the people in your group. 

The truth is that being good at DFS in 2022 involves a decent amount of work to succeed. You have to be willing to go down the rabbit hole, pour over projections and matchups, anticipate what your competition is going to do, understand correlation, target good game environments, and be ready to swap off popular plays late if your early pieces fail.

If that sounds like gibberish to you, then you have some work to do. DFS is the ultimate “learning how to fish” instead of “receiving fish” game in fantasy. It requires a lot of time to be good, but the process is rewarding if you catch the bug.

If you’re still intrigued, I highly recommend reading JMToWin’s weekly piece in the newsletter and subscribing to sites like One Week Season and Run The Sims, where you will get the tools, projections, and resources needed to become a winning player. I also review my tournament lineups every Monday morning on my YouTube channel if you’d like to hear me talk through my thought process.

Dear Pete, how excited are you now for the Rihanna concert in February? — Ready for Rhianna

DEAR READY FOR RHIANNA: As I told Kendall on Sirius XM when it was announced that she would perform at the Super Bowl halftime show this year, I WAS SCREAMING.

With Rhianna having famously not released an album since 2016 and focusing instead on her family and business pursuits–facts that I definitely knew and didn’t just look up–I can barely contain my excitement for her to take the stage in Glendale. 

And frankly, with how things have been trending this year with low-scoring primetime games, her halftime show might be the highlight of a game featuring a bunch of Jake Elliott and Tyler Bass field goals. 

🤣 Everyone is laughing at Russell Wilson. Even kickers. Yes, kickers!!!

🎃 It is almost time to trick or treat. What if a coach answered the door?

🏦 You could rob a bank. Or you could bet this over.

📊 This QB is playing better. How has he improved?

🏃‍♂️ Running is a cheat code for fantasy QBs. Could this rookie surprise?

🤓 Those things aren't cheap. Smart move.

🎾 Can this second-year QB turn things around? Seems hard to trust.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Jordan came up with for Week 8...

🔥 Justin Fields over 47.5 rushing yards -120

Over the past four weeks, Justin Fields averages 10.3 rushing attempts per game. He leads the NFL with 18% of his drop backs turning into scrambles.

During that time period, the Bears have finally shown a willingness to get Fields involved in the designed rushing game. Last week before the matchup against the Patriots, the coaching staff announced that they would ride the hot hand.

Most fantasy managers assumed Khalil Herbert would be the primary beneficiary, but it ended up being Fields with an eye-popping 28% of the designed rush attempts.

The Bears went to a hot-hand approach like they said they would. However, it wasn't Khalil Herbert getting the bump.

It was Justin Fields with a season-high 28% of designed rushing attempts.

3 consecutive top-12 finishes thanks to his rushing ability. Dare we say low-end QB1?

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
Oct 25, 2022

The Bears have also repeatedly shown us that running the football is their identity -- opting to pound the rock above the league average whether leading, tied or trailing. As fantasy players and sports bettors, we should use this information accordingly.

In the past four weeks, since the shift in Fields’ usage, he hasn’t had under 47 rushing yards, with his highest total clocking in at 88 yards last week.

I expect this Fields rushing usage to continue to expand, and in the coming weeks I would not be surprised to see this line set in the high 50s to low 60s range. 

This bet is currently my biggest play of the week, and I would be betting this line up to 50.5 rushing yards. 

This pick, like all of our bets are tracked with Pikkit, follow us to see what else we’re on this week! 

JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!.

JM’s Player Grid 

🤖 Sam Ehlinger 

When talking about Ehlinger, we need to consider his pricing on both FanDuel and DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s priced similarly to a lot of other guys, and is therefore just “a guy in a pile of potential options” as opposed to “a critical decision point.” 

On DraftKings, however, he’s very much a “light blue” chip for me, and he’s a guy I won’t be concerned about playing at high ownership.

🔎 My DFS Interpretations for Commanders @ Colts:

We should expect Ehlinger to be popular this week, so it’s worth thinking through a few of the ways this could play out: 

1.) Ehlinger could disappoint

A disappointment would likely be something in the range of 10 to 13 DraftKings points (maybe 200 or fewer passing yards, only 30ish rushing yards, and no touchdowns — or perhaps add a passing touchdown in there, but take away some of the passing yards).

2.) Ehlinger could have “about the game we would expect”

This would be between 200 and 250 passing yards, 30 to 50 rushing yards, and one score he accounts for — leading to something like 15 to 20 points.

3.) Ehlinger could surprise

We know he has rushing upside, but if Ehlinger is able to combine that with a mid-range passing attack, we could be looking at  250+ passing yards, 50+ rushing yards, and multiple touchdowns — leading to something like 23 to 25 points.

Given the state of the slate, I would genuinely be happy with any of those outcomes if rostering him, basically looking at it as a situation in which I’m keeping pace with the field there, and gaining an edge somewhere else; with that said, there are plenty of +EV ways to not play Ehlinger on DK:

A) game stacks that bets on one game significantly outperforming the others

B) playing a cheap QB (any of the guys at $6.2k or below) who have legitimate 30-point potential, as a 30-burger would be worth the extra salary spent, especially if Ehlinger finishes in the middle or lower end of his potential range.

C) playing one of the top-end QBs (Kyler Murray/Jalen Hurts), hoping that one of these guys pops for 30 or 35+, that Ehlinger disappoints, and that all the cheaper QBs end up in the 20ish-point range. 

Ehlinger will be on my list, though I’ll also be looking for other ways to play this slate. For more on this situation, JM dives deep into his DFS roster building strategy on the OWS Angles podcast which you can access by joining OWS Free.