⚡ A Collapse For The Ages

Brandon Staley, Nathaniel Hackett and Kliff Kingsbury walk into a bar in Thailand...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• A collapse for the ages & a SB contender gets its wings
• Morning Download: Pete gets you caught up
• Kliff Kingsbury's next move is wild
• Eliot's favorite stack: Giants & Vikings
• SNF: Our SNF Picks & Plays
• Player Matchups: T.J. Hockenson & Dalton Schultz
• It’s 1/15. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

That's how you start the playoffs...

⚡ The Chargers epic meltdown

On Friday we said the Chargers deserve to lose thanks to head coach Brandon Staley's gross negligence in managing his players in a meaningless game against the Broncos in Week 18.

And in a way, it does seem like the football karma gods intervened yesterday to make that a reality as the Jags erased a 27-point deficit to beat the Chargers on a last-minute field goal.

Not since the Falcons stunning 28-3 collapse to the Patriots in the Super Bowl have we seen a team botch a lead in such epic fashion:

this is the FIRST TIME IN NFL PLAYOFF HISTORY a team was +5 in turnover margin and lost the game

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball)
Jan 15, 2023

Trevor Lawrence was a mess in the first half (4 INTs), but kept his composure in the second half while spreading the ball around to Evan Engram (7-93-1), Christian Kirk (8-78-1), Zay Jones (8-74-1). They'll have a tall task next week at Arrowhead against a coach with a brain and a tea not destined to collapse.

As for Brandon Staley, he should start considering his options and the Chargers social media team should take better notes.

You can keep the receipt.

#IWATJ | #LACvsJAX

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars)
Jan 15, 2023

💪 The 49ers aren't messing around

The Niners are going to be a problem.

Led by their 7th-round draft pick, QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco torched an outmatched Seahawks squad 41-23 to open up Wild Card weekend. Purdy moved the ball with ease, racking up 332 passing yards and 3 TDs, as well as 4-16-1 on the ground.

The offense mostly funneled through Christian McCaffrey (15-119; 2-17-1) and Deebo Samuel (6-133-1; 3-32), but even ancillary pieces like Eli Mitchell and Brandon Aiyuk had their moments.

There will be plenty of time throughout January (and the offseason) to debate whether Purdy is just a product of a brilliant scheme or an above-average NFL signal caller in his own right, but for now, let's just appreciate a well-rounded team that is firing on all cylinders.

The #49ers will host the #Vikings, or the #Bucs-#Cowboys winner if Minnesota loses to the #Giants tomorrow, in an NFC divisional playoff game next weekend.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero)
Jan 15, 2023

As for the Seahawks, a surprisingly successful season led by Geno Smith comes to an end. Although the future is still bright with superstars like DK Metcalf (10-136-2) and Kenneth Walker (15-63-1) in the fold.

• GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about each game all in one place.
• INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
• PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.
• RANKINGS - Full Wild Card weekend rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool, and we'll tell you the best option:

🏆 We don't care what your fantasy league says - you're a #winner

Yes, you finished the season 2-12.

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Aaaand you even forgot to set your lineup *most* weeks.

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Ah, don't you just love the sweet smell of redemption? Take that, league commissioner.

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📁 The Ravens crazy QB situation

We know Lamar Jackson isn't playing tonight due to his Grade 2 PCL strain, yet we still don't have total clarity on who will start at QB tonight for Baltimore.

Sources say the Ravens plan to play both QBs (Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown) vs. the Bengals. Brown is a UDFA rookie who stepped in for Huntley last week who is also dealing with shoulder tendinitis and a wrist injury.

What's the saying? "If you have two QBs you don't have one." The Ravens are 8.5 point underdogs to the Bengals today.

📁 Major Dolphins injuries

Miami has planned all week for Skylar Thompson to start today, although Teddy Bridgewater (finger, knee) is expected to be active as a backup today. It begs the question of how he's healthy enough to suit up and potentially play but not healthy enough to start.

The Dolphins will also be without Raheem Mostert today, which means Jeff Wilson Jr. will lead the backfield with Salvon Ahmed mixing in as well.

📁 Misc. files

You could say Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott are motivated this playoffs...

💪 Low man wins. I would not want to be on the receiving end of this shoulder.

✈️ God bless Kliff Kingsbury. He's gonna do the Eat Pray Love thing.

⏩ Remember when everyone said CMC would lose a step? About that...

📻 Everything you need before kick-off! Get help with fantasy, DFS, and betting.

😎 An under the radar play on an ELITE offense. Seems good. 

🚋 Now this is how you roll up to the stadium. The king of the tailgate.

📺 What did the Seahawks do to prepare for their game? Checks out.

🤣 Commanders gonna Commander. Too perfect.

When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...

🚀Daniel Jones > Saquon Barkley & Isaiah Hodgins (Justin Jefferson bring back)

The last time the Vikings and Giants played, the Vikings pulled out a narrow 27-24 victory. Three weeks later, these teams have a rematch on Super Wildcard Weekend. This game features the highest total on the slate and is the one dome game (which historically increases scoring by 9%).

Not only is the dome ideal for fantasy outputs, but so are both of these defenses. The Vikings allow the second-most yards and are 26th DVOA against the pass. No team in the playoffs has allowed more yards, attempts, or completions than the Vikings. 

That should lead to a big day for Daniel Jones, who has had the perfect blend of floor and ceiling this season, scoring 18 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games. Jones’ dual-threat ability gives him a slate-breaking upside as he leads all QBs on the slate with 304 rushing yards off of design runs, and his 7 rushing TDs ties Josh Allen for most on the slate.

Jones isn't the only one who could have a big day on the ground, as the Giants should feed their superstar Saquon Barkley. Of all players this weekend, Barkley has Run the Sims' highest optimal rate of 30.3%, 9% higher than the next closest player. 

Finishing off the Giants' triple stack is the value play of Isaiah Hodgins. Hodgins has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games and that is no coincidence.

He leads the team with a 75% end zone target share while seeing 33.5% of the air yards and 21.8% of the targets. At just $4,100, his workload is too great to pass up in this matchup.

Bringing back the Giants' stack is fantasy’s number one receiver - Justin Jefferson. Not that you need me to convince you that Jefferson is a smash play, but I will anyway.

Against the bottom 10 secondaries this season, Jefferson averages 125 yards per game, and the Giants come in with the 31st-ranked secondary. They won’t be able to stop him, and they are unlikely to even contain him.

It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Ravens @ Bengals, take it away, LaMarca...

📺 Ravens at Bengals (-8.5) – 40.5 total

What’s better than an NFL playoff game?

A division rivalry playoff game! These two teams met just last week, and they are obviously very familiar with each other. The Ravens were able to secure a two-point win when these squads met in Baltimore in Week 5, but the Bengals bounced back with a decisive home win in Week 18. That win secured the Bengals’ home-field advantage in this contest instead of having to rely on winning a coin flip.

The big question for the Ravens is who will be starting at quarterback? 

As Pete alluded to in the intro, there is word that the Ravens plan on using both Huntley and Anthony Brown tonight. This uncertainty makes both Baltimore QBs pure fades in all fantasy contests. To make matters worse, no player prop bets are available for the pair of Ravens' signal callers. 

If the Ravens are going to have any shot at pulling off the upset, they’re going to need their defense to be at the top of their game. Fortunately, their defense is quite good. They’ve moved up to seventh in defensive DVOA after a relatively slow start to the year, and they have a top-11 unit against the run and the pass. Adding Roquan Smith from the Bears before the trade deadline has made an impact, with the stud linebacker racking up two sacks, seven tackles for loss, and one interception in his nine games with the team.

Of course, the Ravens are going to have their hands full against the Bengals, who have one of the best offenses in football.

They rank fourth in offensive DVOA, and they have a top-seven unit through the air and on the ground. The Bengals have ridden their dominant offense during their eight-game win streak to end the regular season, averaging 29.0 points per game. Their defense has also improved from last year, but the offense remains the team’s driving force.

The Bengals have the best ATS record in football since the start of last year. They’ve gone 26-11, including last year’s postseason run, and they were 12-4 against the spread in 2022-23.

One trend working in the Ravens’ favor is that divisional playoff matchups tend to favor the underdog. Underdogs are 14-10-1 against the spread in division matchups since 2003, and they’re 3-2 when getting at least a full touchdown. Joe Burrow also owns a record of just 3-4 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown, while John Harbaugh is 14-7 following double-digit points.

Ultimately, my opinion on this game comes down to the quarterback. The Bengals have a great one in Joe Burrow, and that should decide this game.

If you're looking to make a bet RIGHT NOW, this is our best options for the game:

💰 If you missed it, check out our Game Hub!

We have previews like this for every game, along with matchup stats, betting picks, and more!

Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...

🔥 T.J. Hockenson vs. NYG

While it’s easy to take a look at this matchup for Hockenson against the Giants and point to the fact that he torched them in Week 16 for 16 targets, 13 receptions, 109 yards, and two touchdowns, we won’t take the easy way out here.

The Giants have been a below-average defense against TE in fantasy this season and 31st in DVOA, but that’s not the whole story.

The best part of targeting a player like Hockenson is his utilization within the Vikings. Not only are the targets consolidated in the Vikings’ offense, but so are the personnel.

The Vikings use very few secondary pass-catchers compared to teams like the Ravens or Dolphins that mix and match multiple WR and TE. The condensed receiving options and targets allow massive ceiling outcome games like his Week 16 vs. the Giants.

Justin Jefferson ALSO had 16 targets in that game, as they combined for 64% of the team’s targets that week. 

Hockenson, TE2 in fantasy points per game from Week 9-17 as a Viking, has taken the second pass-catcher mantle away from Adam Thielen. For the Vikings to have playoff success in Super Wild Card Weekend’s projected highest-scoring game, Hockenson will be vital to that end.

🔥 Dalton Schultz @ TB

The TE position often goes overlooked, which is no different with the Cowboys’ Dalton Schultz in a plus matchup on Monday night.

CeeDee Lamb is the clear 1A in this passing offense, but there are certain situations where Dak Prescot actually leans on Schultz MORE than Lamb.

Since Prescot's return from injury, Schultz is #1 on the Cowboys in red zone targets, and also leads the Cowboys in targets while Prescot is pressured. (Per SIS)

The Bucs have struggled to cover tight ends all season long, ranking 24th DVOA against the position and giving up the 7th most points. While the Buccaneers have performed at a league-average rate in targets (6) and yards allowed (48.3) to tight ends, they have been picked on in the red zone.

The Bucs have allowed 9 TDs to opposing tight ends this season, the fifth most. Despite missing two games, Schultz still led the team with 16 red zone targets with a 21% share.

Tight ends with a 90% route participation and target rate over 20% aren't easy to find, and to understand Schultz's upside, we need to look no further than his 24.6 fantasy point explosion in Week 17. He is a sneaky play in DFS this weekend.

— Trevor Lawrence (@Trevorlawrencee)
Jan 15, 2023