🎁 A Festivus for the Rest of Us!

Two NFL games, three backup QBs, untold feats of strength, and unlimited airing of grievances…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by GameBlazers:

• Saturday Injuries: No Ja’Marr, no Keenan, not great.
• TNF Redux: Rams, without a doubt.
• PIT vs. CIN: Climb the ladder!
• LAC vs. BUF: Bet on the better team, easy money?
• It’s 12/23: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…

Today, the powers of pigskin have granted us two NFL games. Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich highlight their favorite bets for these games later in the newsletter, but here, I want to note the injuries that might be impactful.

🐯 Bengals

Aside from being without WR Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder, IR) and DT D.J. Reader (quad, IR), the Bengals look this week much as they looked last week — although that’s a little like saying, “Other than the assassination, the play was good.”

Chase is the most important non-QB offensive player on the Bengals, and Reader is probably the team’s most impactful defensive player.

⛏️ Steelers

QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) is out once again, and as I noted in the Thursday Betting Life Newsletter, the drop-off from Pickett to Mason Rudolph is -0.9 points. It’s a downgrade, but not a massive one. (For more, check out our QB ATS Value Chart).

More significant might be the team’s injury situation at safety. All-Pro S Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) is out, as are FS Damontae Kazee (suspended), SS Keanu Neal (rib, IR), backup S Trenton Thompson (neck), and maybe even special teamer/S Elijah Riley (ankle, IR - Q).

With this cluster injury situation, the Steelers could be vulnerable to explosive pass plays deep in their secondary.

🏈 Bills

The Bills don’t have a lot going on with their injury report. FS Micah Hyde (neck stinger) is out for a second straight game, and I doubt that DT DaQuon Jones (pec, IR - Q) is ready to return to action, but they could get back EDGE A.J. Epenesa (ribs, Q), who practiced every day this week (albeit limitedly).

The Bills are currently -12.5 favorites (as of Friday, 9 pm ET), and they’re one of my favorite bets for Week 16.

⚡️ Chargers

No. 1 WR Keenan Allen (heel) is out once again. EDGE Joey Bosa (foot, IR) is not yet ready to return to action. The Chargers are down to their No. 3 C with Will Clapp (knee, IR) now unavailable.

They will almost certainly be without perimeter CB Deane Leonard (ankle, heel - D) and could be without slot CB Essang Bassey (concussion). And NT Nick Williams (shoulder, Q) is uncertain after missing last week.

And, of course, QB Justin Herbert (finger, IR) isn’t walking through that door.

With all their injuries, the Chargers are one of the league’s worst teams.

Check Out Ian Hartitz’s Injury Roundup!

For everything you need for the Week 16 Saturday slate — including our inactives page — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

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🔙 TNF Redux: Sean McVay, short rest, money.

💰 Saturday TD prop: A running back you can trust.

🏀 The return of Ted Lasso? Also, Ben Simmons catching strays.

📝 Speaking of hoops…10 key takeaways from an action-packed Friday NBA slate.

✍️ Sometimes, following the leader is +EV. How sharp money is affecting Week 16 lines.

🤝 Saturday football means even more betting opportunities. We’ve got you covered with FREE bets and Pick’em plays

💸 Arthur Smith gets fined for being a jerk. More precisely, he was a jerk — and then he got fined, but still...

🏈 Bowl season is in full swing. Best College Football bets for the weekend.

⚡️ The Chargers don’t have a GM or HC… but they have themselves a kicker!

💪 “Festivus is all too real”: Five steps for observing the Seinfeld holiday.

Bengals at Steelers. AFC North. Nasty. Cold. Football as the founding fathers intended. Geoff Ulrich gives his favorite plays.

👍 Best Bet: Bengals -3 (-105, FanDuel)

• Play to: -3.0 (-105)

The Steelers defense got drilled on the ground last week by the Colts, and the Bengals have added an element of explosiveness to their backfield of late with Chase Brown. Despite some injuries, the Bengals have maintained a solid offensive line that ranks 10th in EPA per rush on the year. 

The QB play for Pittsburgh will also be a huge concern. Mason Rudolph has averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt for his career and has a 16-11 TD:INT ratio over 18 games (10 starts). The Bengals are still a decent pressure team as well with EDGE Trey Hendrickson in the lineup, and they are tied for the sixth-most turnovers created in the league. 

I also think it’s OK to be over the Steelers and Mike Tomlin’s voodoo underdog magic at this point. Much of Tomlin’s career record and high rate of covering as an underdog was built off the back of teams with top-five defenses and much more cohesion on offense. This year, he has neither of those things. The Zac Taylor-led Bengals have also gone 19-12-2 ATS as a favorite and 8-4 ATS as a road favorite since 2020. 

With this line currently under a FG, I like backing the Bengals.

⬆️ Props: Joe Mixon Over 12.5 Carries (-105, BetMGM)

• Play to: 12.5
• Projection: 13.3

Mixon has ceded some opportunities to rookie Chase Brown of late, but he’s still in prime position to handle the bulk of the carries for the Bengals in this matchup.

Even with Brown taking an average of 8.0 carries the last three weeks, Mixon has still managed an average of 16.7 carries per game over that span. Pittsburgh has now allowed four different RBs to go for 60+ rush yards against them in just the last three games alone, making it an attractive spot for the Bengals to lean on the ground game.

Matchup aside, this is also just one of the lowest totals we’ve seen on Mixon’s carry prop this season, so buying low is certainly warranted. He’s gone over 12.5 carries in 10 games already in 2023 and has a great shot to do so again against Pittsburgh.

🚀 Ladder Bet: Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards (DraftKings)

• 50+ yards (+120)
• 70+ yards (+350)
• 90+ yards (+850)

Cincinnati ranks 28th in success rate against the run and 26th in rush EPA on defense. Last week they had plenty of issues limiting Ty Chandler (23-132-1, 3-25) and this week they figure to face similar issues when trying to stop the Swiss Army RB Jaylen Warren. 

Warren remains stuck in the “friend zone” from a workload perspective, topping out at a 40-50% snap share and 10-12 rushes most weeks. However, even if the Steelers refuse to give him a starter’s workload, this is still a great spot to back Warren, who has exceeded 100 rush yards on fewer than 14 carries twice already this season.

For betting purposes, putting a larger portion of our wager at the 50-yard milestone helps ensure we’d get a small return if Warren stalls out before hitting 70 yards. However, ensuring that we get some exposure to the bigger milestones at 70+ and 90+ is key as well. 

Since the Steelers upped his volume in Week 9 against Tennessee, Warren has gone for 80+ yards in 42% of his starts and the current +350 odds (at 70+ yards) implies just a 22% probability of Warren exceeding this mark.

The Bills have saved their season with back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys, and now all they have to do is beat the Chargers. Simple enough, right? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Bills-Chargers.

💪 Best Bet: Bills -12.0 (-110, BetMGM)

The sharps appear to be on the Chargers in this spot. They’ve received 82% of the dollars on just 46% of the bets (per the Action Network), causing this number to dip from -13.5 to -12. Still, I can’t help but back Buffalo on Saturday.

There is definitely a case to be made for buying low on Los Angeles. Teams that are coming off a loss of at least 35 points tend to be undervalued, posting a record of 75-44-6 ATS the following week. The Chargers also just fired head coach Brandon Staley, so they could benefit from the “dead coach bounce.”

However, I’m skeptical that will actually matter for the Chargers. This was a team that was supposed to be contending for a Super Bowl, not firing their coach midseason. Their star QB is out for the year, and they just released a player who was a team captain for the first 14 games. That doesn’t exactly scream “We’re in this to win!”

Meanwhile, the Bills can’t afford to take their foot off the gas pedal. They’re still on the outside looking in of the playoff picture, and a loss would drop their postseason odds to just 26%. They need to be 100% focused for this contest, and if they are they should win this game by at least two TDs.

💣 Top Prop: Josh Allen Anytime TD (+105, FanDuel)

The Bills offense has had a bit of a different feel since Joe Brady took over as OC. They went with an extremely run-heavy game plan in their last contest, with Allen attempting just 15 passes vs. the Cowboys. They’ve also made a clear effort to get the ball to James Cook, who has been one of their best playmakers.

One thing that hasn’t changed is Allen being used as a runner. He’s arguably the team’s best goal-line option, similar to how Cam Newton was used for the Panthers in his prime. Allen has scored a rushing TD in three straight games and seven in his past eight. He also has a career-high 11 rushing TDs for the year.

This may not feel like a particularly good price tag for a QB, but think of it this way. If you could get a goal line back at better than even money for a team implied for more than 28 points, you’d sign up for that right? That’s the case here.

🤝 Same-Game Parlay (+842, FanDuel)

• Bills -20.5
• Chargers Under 14.5 points
• Allen anytime TD
• Cook 70+ rushing yards

If the Bills cover the traditional spread in this contest, there’s a good chance this game turns into a laugher. Five of their eight wins have come by at least 21 points, including last week’s win over the Cowboys. If they can beat Dallas by that kind of margin, why not the Chargers?

Taking the under on the Chargers team total pairs nicely with the alternate spread, as does an Allen anytime TD and at least 70 rushing yards from Cook. They’ll likely lean on the running game if they establish a big lead, so Cook could be looking at another monster performance.