If you don’t make the Round of 64, did you REALLY make the NCAA Tournament?
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.
- Fade the shorthanded Cavaliers on Wednesday?
- NCAA Tournament: Kansas gets dealt a big blow
- Valspar Championship: Back Bezuidenhout
- It’s 3/20. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…
It’s getting to be that time of the year when lineups are filled with borderline NBA players. Some teams are looking to rest key contributors for what they hope will be a deep playoff run. Others are looking to improve their position in the draft lottery. The result is some lopsided matchups over the final month of the year.
Look at Wednesday’s slate for an example. There are eight games to choose from, but only one features a point spread below 9.5. 11 of the 16 squads also have at least one player listed as questionable, so it’s getting tougher to handicap some of these matchups.
That said, all the uncertainty can also create some value in the betting market. If you’re able to successfully decipher some of the pieces of the puzzle, you can reap the rewards.
Let’s dive into a few of my favorite targets for Wednesday’s slate.
🔥 Miami Heat (+2.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (-110; BetMGM)
The Heat are no strangers to a loaded injury report, and Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Cavaliers is no exception. Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jovic are both questionable after missing the past two games, and Bam Adebayo has been added as questionable with a back injury. Duncan Robinson has already been ruled out after suffering a back injury in their last contest, while Tyler Herro and Kevin Love remain sidelined.
That’s a lot of potential firepower on the sidelines, but at least there’s a chance that Butler and Adebayo will play. The Cavaliers are arguably in even worse shape since two of their best players have already been confirmed as out.
Donovan Mitchell will miss his second consecutive contest, while Evan Mobley will miss his eighth straight. The Cavs have gone an excellent 33-16 with Mitchell in the lineup this season, but they’re just 10-9 without him. They’ve already faced the Heat once without Mitchell, and they suffered a 33-point defeat in Miami.
I like the idea of locking the Heat in as underdogs and hoping for good news on the injury front. You can always wait to see if Butler and/or Adebayo are in the lineup, but the Heat will likely become favorites in that scenario.
⬆️ Toumani Camara Over 1.5 assists (+120; BetMGM)
I lost with the over on Camara’s assist prop on Monday, but I’m going right back to the well on Wednesday. Camara had a brutal run out in his last contest, playing just 14.5 minutes after picking up three fouls in the first half. He still managed to get one assist, but he ultimately fell short.
Camara played at least 30.4 minutes in each of his four previous starts, and he racked up at least three dimes in three of them. With Jerami Grant doubtful, there’s a good chance Camara stays in the starting lineup vs. the Clippers and returns to his previous workload.
The Paydirt DFS simulations absolutely love this prop, with Camara going over 1.5 dimes more than 97% of the time. This is a slam-dunk at better than even money.
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✍️ The Round of 64 is one sleep away. Best bets for Thursday’s day slate.
đź“ť Need help filling out your bracket? Matthew Freedman and Kody Malstrom have you covered.
🤕 Speaking of brackets, Kevin McCullar has been ruled out for the NCAA tournament. You might want to rethink Kansas.
🏀 NBA League Pass + live betting? Just take my money already.
🥓 The Jets continued a busy offseason, inking Mike Williams to a one-year deal. A breakfast sandwich helped seal the deal.
🚨 Anthony Edwards drops the hammer. He threw down the best dunk of the year — and maybe of all time.
💰 What’s better than hitting one triple-double bet? Hitting two! One bettor cashed in with a triple-double parlay.
🏒 NHL bets, imminent! Our bet tracker has you covered for hockey’s small Wednesday slate.
The PGA TOUR is on the final leg of its Florida swing this week with the start of the Valspar Championship. Resident Golf degenerate Geoff Ulrich has you covered with bets for the week below.
🇿🇦 Christiaan Bezuidenhout (FanDuel)
- +5000 outright
- +450 Top-10
We’ve seen good signals from Bezuidenhout all season and that trend continued last week at THE PLAYERS, where he finished a career-best T13. While his approach play had dipped the past couple of events, the fact he was able to gain +7.0 strokes on approach at Sawgrass was a great sign that the South African remains in top form.
Bezuidenhout isn’t a standout off the tee, and that part of his game can get him into trouble. However, that’s also a trait he shares with past Valspar winners like Adam Hadwin (2017), Jordan Spieth (2015), and John Senden (2014), who managed their way around this tricky venue with great iron play and solid putting. Those are two parts of the game that Bezuidenhout is excelling at right now, and he comes in ranked eighth in this field in approach stats over the last 24 rounds.
With less elite names teeing it up this week and a tournament that has produced four first-time winners over the past six seasons, this is an A+ spot to back the 29-year-old. I’m happy to keep chasing him at 50-1 in the outright market.
🏌 Victor Perez (FanDuel)
- +10000 outright
- +750 Top-10
- +340 Top-20
Perez has won three times on the DP World Tour since 2019 but has chosen to play a more US-based schedule this season and, to date, has not looked out of place. The 32-year-old has gained strokes on approach and off the tee in all five of his PGA starts and comes into this week off a three-event made-cut streak and a T3 finish at the Puerto Rico Open, an alternate field event where he finished with a 65 on Sunday.
While he may be a new name to some, Perez has shown previously that he’s not afraid of bigger stages. He placed T12 at the PGA Championship last season (an event played on another brutally tough course) and was T9 at THE PLAYERS in 2021, where he impressively gained strokes in every single category. Having had last week off, Perez will have a leg up on the field in terms of rest, and this week will also offer him a rare advantage as Copperhead is one of the few PGA venues he’s had experience playing before. He finished T45 here last season – an effort that saw him gain +2.4 strokes putting.
While his prices remain in triple-digit territory, I’m happy to back him in these weaker fields as an outright. With solid placement prices available, he’s also a player you could think about laddering through the top 40/20/10 markets.
️⛳️ 72-hole Matchup: Justin Thomas (+125; bet365) over Xander Schauffele
These two have gone head-to-head in PGA events five times in 2024 and have split the difference, with both men locking up a 2-2-1 record. Schauffele easily won this matchup last week but has played Copperhead just once prior (2022), producing a T12 finish that saw him lose strokes around the greens and putting.
Thomas has often outperformed his career averages on Copperhead’s greens, and if that trend continues, he’ll have a great chance of pipping Schauffele again. With big odds available in the 2-way market, Thomas looks like a solid value.
