A High-End WR Set to Play?

Matt Ryan has had a front-row seat to two historic comebacks...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• What to do with Tee Higgins?
• Morning Download. Dwain gets you caught up
• DFS Stacks. Chargers and Chig.
• Player Matchups. A Pacheco crescendo!?!
• SNF: Insights and bets for the NFC East showdown.
• The greatest comeback ever and a snowball fight...
• It’s 12/18. Take it away, Dwain McFarland…

We all want our best players available for the fantasy playoffs — however, figuring out if we can put them back into our lineups can be a difficult decision at times. After all, it is win-or-go-home time in fantasy land, and we all want to keep marching toward that championship belt.

This weekend we have a high-end WR option that is set to return according to Saturday reports, but can we trust them in our lineups?

⚖️ Tee Higgins

Last week, Higgins was supposed to be fine for his matchup against the Browns after a hamstring injury popped up during practice. However, he was removed from the final injury report, and Zac Taylor indicated he was good to go.

Of course, as we all know, that isn't how things turned out, with Higgins only running one route before heading to the bench, leaving fantasy managers with a big donut in their starting lineups. Apparently, Higgins tweaked his hamstring in pregame warmups, but the team didn't say anything.

Now we have a similar story unfolding this week against the Buccaneers. The third-year WR was upgraded to a full practice on Friday after two limited sessions to begin the week and is expected to play, with Taylor saying he feels good about it.

The #Bengals are expecting to have WR Tyler Boyd (finger) and WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) playing today, source said. Both are listed as questionable.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)
Dec 18, 2022

The question is can we feel good about it? We don't want our star players going off on our bench in the fantasy playoffs, but Higgins carries the risk of reaggravation, and this is a late game. In situations like this, it is always good to consider risk versus reward.

Due to the added risks, I have pushed Higgins to the bottom of Tier 3 as my WR26. He is a boom-bust WR3 and should be treated like a game-time decision regardless of early reports. If he is a late scratch, the available options will be limited.

Here are some WRs I would start over Higgins without hesitation:

• Mike Williams
• Chris Godwin
• Terry McLaurin
• Christian Kirk
• Christian Watson
• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Garrett Wilson
• DeVonta Smith
• Chris Olave

We could give up a small edge on some of these if Higgins is 100% — he would belong towards the top of this tier if we knew health wasn't a factor. However, they are close enough that the additional risk isn't worth it. All of these names have 20-plus fantasy point potential.

However, versus names like Darius Slayton, Allen Lazard, and Jakobi Meyers, that play later, I am going to go with Higgins if active. Yeah, these players could outscore Higgins, but they don't have the same upside — we won't be surprised if the Bengals young WR goes for 100 yards and two TDs, but anyone from this trio (or a similar profile WRs) would floor us with that result.

Read on for more of the biggest fantasy news stories from last night and our favorite DFS plays and sports bets for today's action.

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🤑 Matt LaMarca is betting: Jaguars +4.0

The Cowboys hit a brief speed bump last week vs. the Texans, but ultimately, it has been smooth sailing since Dak Prescott returned to the lineup. They’ve won six of their past seven games, with the lone loss coming in overtime.

However, I’m not expecting to see their A game in Week 15. They have a massive matchup with the Eagles looming next week, and it would not be surprising if they’re looking past the 5-8 Jaguars. Jacksonville has been a doormat for most of its existence, so they’re an easy team to overlook.

That would be a mistake. The Jaguars have played some really good football of late, and they’re way better than their current record indicates. Trevor Lawrence put together one of the best games of his career last week vs. the Titans, and they can catch the Cowboys if they’re not fully prepared.

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📂 Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow could play

Waller and Renfrow were both activated from IR and are eligible to return to action against the Patriots. Waller hasn't played since Week 5, and Renfrow was sidelined in Week 10.

With each player missing such a large amount of time, they likely don't carry any sort of elevated re-injury risk. Waller started the season with TE9, TE2, TE30 and TE30 finishes, but his targets per route run (TPRR) was well below his career average at 17%. Waller could be the No. 2 behind Davante Adams moving forward, but he is a low-end TE1 for Week 15.

Renfrow only has one top-36 outing in six games and lost the WR2 job to Mack Hollins — he is mostly a slot option on a team that is willing to run lots of two-WR sets. He shouldn't be in lineups but isn't a terrible stash play as a WR5 in deep PPR formats.

📂 Rhamondre Stevenson is a GTD

Stevenson (ankle) is questionable after a limited practice on Friday. Damien Harris was already ruled out, so New England needs their star RB. The Patriots play a late game, but things are trending in the right direction.

#Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers (concussion) is expected to play, while RB Rhamondre Stevenson, questionable with an ankle injury, has what is described as a "good chance" to go, as well. A pre-game workout will determine his fate.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)
Dec 18, 2022

The late-game status and re-injury factors make this a similar situation to Tee Higgins. Players like Isiah Pacheco, Ezekiel Elliott and James Conner should start over Stevenson, but he should enter lineups over players like Leonard Fournette, Cam Akers, and Antonio Gibson.

📂 Misc. Files

Dameon Pierce was already ruled out for the week, but now he is heading to IR. The rookie RB's season is over. Rex Burkhead or Dare Ogunbowale could provide some low-end RB value but are likely to cancel one another out. Royce Freeman was brought up from the practice squad.

It appears the Chiefs will get two weapons back in the receiving game on Sunday — good news for Patrick Mahomes.

Chiefs’ WR Kadarius Toney, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a hamstring injury, is expected to play vs. the Texans, per source.

The Chiefs also expect WR Mecole Hardman to return off injured reserve from his abdominal injury Saturday vs. Seattle, per source.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Dec 18, 2022

Hardman isn't a full-time player, but he sees high-leverage touches near the end zone and offers big-play upside. He had WR33, WR28, WR3 and WR6 finishes before the injury.

Dallas Goedert was not activated from IR and won't play in Week 15.

It sounds like Jonathan Taylor avoided serious injury, but the rest of his season is in jeopardy.

Initial tests showed that Colts’ RB Jonathan Taylor suffered a sprained ankle during today’s loss, per source. While it is considered “nothing major”, Taylor will undergo additional testing, and with the Colts 4-9-1 record, it is uncertain when or if he’ll play again this season.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Dec 17, 2022

Josh Jacobs and D.J. Moore are both expected to play.

🤯 What an amazing comeback. Poor guy, he has been here before.

📺 The Vikings' weekly viewing experience. At least it usually ends well.

👨‍🚀 Could he get fired after this meltdown? He should take a page from Cosmo.

⛄️ Penalties for snowballs? Yep. Would have been a 15-yarder.

❓ Can this rookie cause that rookie to break out? Rookie math always works.

🐧 Of course, he scored. The Waddle was made for the cold.

🦓 They ended up winning. But the stripes didn't do them any favors.

📽 Hollywood has a tough matchup against Denver. Lights, camera, and expected action today.

 💪🏿 J.K. Dobbins has 100-plus yards in back-to-back games. He's just getting started.

When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares two of his games to stack...

The Tennessee Titans are the most significant pass funnel defense in the league, with opponents throwing it 64.4% of the time. This plays right into what the Chargers want to do, as they are the second-most pass-happy team in football. 

Over the last two weeks, Tennesse's defense has allowed 86% of the yards against them through the air, allowing 700-plus combined passing yards and back-to-back 30-plus point QB fantasy performances. Justin Herbert should be licking his chops, especially with his top weapons healthy.

Since last season Herbert has played 50% of his games with a healthy Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, in those games, he averages 305 yards and 24 Draftkings points per game. He has a chance to go nuclear this week, and his top guys are the perfect affordable double-stack pairing.

While Mike Williams only ran a route 72% of the dropbacks last week, he led the team with 35% of the air yards and stuffed the stat sheet with 116 yards and a TD. Now he gets a Titans defense that is allowing a 50% completion percentage on deep passes and allowing a league-leading 11 touchdowns on deep passes, four more than the next closest team.

Most of the non-down-field work should funnel Keenan Allen’s way. Since his return from injury, Allen averages 10.5 targets per game and is coming off back-to-back 14 target games. The Titans generate pressure at the second highest rate, and when Herbert is under pressure, he works it underneath. When kept clean, look for deep shots to Williams, but when he is feeling the heat, Allen should be peppered with targets.

Many will look to run back this stack with Derrick Henry, and for good reason, as the Chargers allowed the most yards per carry (5.4). However, Chigoziem Okonkwo remains a strong cheap option against the 20th-ranked DVP against tight ends. With three games of 5+ targets and no Treylon Burks, Okonkwo has a chance to be the focal point of the passing attack.

Every Sunday, we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...

💥 Zay Jones vs. DAL

We were mocking the Jaguars this offseason for giving a huge contract to Zay Jones in free agency and his “Halpert-ian” haircut. The joke’s on us, however, as Jones has been the WR15 in fantasy points per game over his last four contests as a key component of the Jaguars' ascending passing attack.

Will this Sunday be “Zay Day” for Jones and the Jaguars?

Jones has proven himself a capable WR3 for fantasy managers, with double-digit targets in three of his last four games and an elite 28.5% target share — good for ninth-best in the NFL. Recently, Jones has been the WR1 in this offense regarding targets and production, not Christian Kirk.

The Cowboys are a pretty big test for Trevor Lawrence and company, as they’re the top team in the league in terms of defensive pass DVOA but only league-average (16th) in fantasy points given up to WR. They’ve also allowed the seventh-most yards to opposing WRs over the last three weeks.

The Jaguars going up against that tough defense has people shying away from the pass-catchers here, but I’m still starting Jones in one of the projected highest-scoring matchups of the Week 15 slate.

🌋 Isiah Pacheco @ HOU

From late-offseason fantasy draft darling to the lead back on the Chiefs… what a ride for Isiah Pacheco!

Of course, the ride hasn’t always been smooth, as it’s taken time to get consistent utilization. But over the last five weeks, it's been a steady drumbeat leading up to a potential crescendo matchup against the Texans, the sixth-lowest rush DVOA. Houston is giving up the most points to fantasy RBs.

Pacheco has five straight games of 15-plus opportunities, with touchdowns in two of his last three. While Pacheco offers little in the receiving game, he’s a good bet to score with a solid yardage total. The Texans give up the most TDs to RBs, and both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott cracked the top 12 fantasy RBs last week.

With the highest team total of Week 15 at 32, the Chiefs should be in a great spot to let Pacheco salt the clock away with a presumed lead. Pacheco could see a season-high in touches and has eruption-game upside.

It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! This week we have an NFC East showdown.

💰 Giants at Commanders (-4.5) — 40.5 Total

The last time these two teams squared off, the game ended in a tie. Both squads enter the game with records of 7-5-1 as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Giants have lost three of their last four games as injuries continue to pile up, but Saquon Barkley should be at full strength after avoiding the injury report. Richie James Jr. will also be ready after listing as questionable to begin the week.

Heading into their bye, Washington was 17th in rushing EPA allowed over their last four games after being second to start the season. This matchup looks decent for Barkley who has run the third-most routes and has the second-most targets for an RB.

Barkley is the Giants' offensive centerpiece, but Darius Slayton has surprised this season as the next-best option. Since taking on a full-time role in Week 10, his 2.29 YPRR ranks 14th among wide receivers.

The Commanders' offense went through a transformation after Taylor Heinicke became the starting QB. This offense now relies heavily on the run, and Terry McLaurin is the clear alpha when they do pass. He’s fourth in target share among all WRs since Heinicke took over.

The Giants are the most-heavy man defense in the NFL, so look for McLaurin to see plenty of 1:1 opportunities to create big plays. He demanded 12 targets and delivered eight receptions for 105 yards and a TD in Week 13.

But let’s not forget about Brian Robinson Jr. The big man with the big hat holds a commanding 65.2% of the backfield touches over the last two weeks and has matched Antonio Gibson in high-value touches from inside the 10-yard line. With Robinson’s targets picking up over the last two weeks, he is a must-start in Week 15.

Our local betting expert, Geoff Ulrich, has two bets for the Sunday Night rivalry:

💰 Giants vs. Commanders Under 40.5 Total Points

These two teams are a combined 9-15-2 to the over this year. Washington ranks just 15th in situation-neutral pace and has a great chance of controlling the game on the ground versus the Giants' second-worst DVOA rush defense.

💰 Darius Slayton Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Slayton was predictably limited last week by the Eagles. He plays a Commanders team in Week 15; however, that he posted six receptions for 90 yards against them two weeks ago. The fact Richie James out-targeted him nine to three last week was a product of matchup and game flow. Slayton has a receiving yards projection over 60.0 this week on Fantasy Life and is in a clear bounce-back spot.

Week 15 IS HERE 🔥

Join @dwainmcfarland and @JordanFiegleman on @onamp at 11am ET as they answer your Start/Sit questions.

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— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Dec 18, 2022