D.J. Moore managers were naughty this year…
In today’s Christmas edition of the Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Amari Cooper delivers fantasy presents
- The players who put coal in your stocking
- Raiders @ Chiefs: Start the studs.
- Giants @ Eagles: A must-win for Philly?
- Ravens @ 49ers: A Super Bowl Preview?
- It’s 12/25. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
Santa has a busy evening on tap, so he decided to stuff the Fantasy Life newsletter into your stocking early tonight.
And if you rostered Amari Cooper today, then you clearly found yourself on his “nice” list this year.
Cooper delivered a slate-breaking, eye-popping 11 receptions, 265 yards and 2 TD performance in the Browns 36-22 victory over the Texans.
Our guy Dwain McFarland was all over this eruption spot early in the week, and Cooper delivered in a way that is normally reserved for Madden video games, not real NFL action:
Watching Joe Flacco (368 yards and 3 TDs)—who is currently the QB1 on the week—repeatedly connect with Cooper illustrates the insane chaos of the NFL in so many ways…
The C.J. Stroud-led Houston Texans were the Cinderella story of the NFL just a few weeks ago, but today they were punching bag fodder for a resilient 10-5 Browns squad who further solidified their playoff position.
The Jets have laughably failed to find a QB replacement for Aaron Rodgers all year, despite having Flacco on their roster last year (he was the QB for the best game of Garrett Wilson’s career, btw) and watching him languish on the Browns practice squad for the majority of the 2023 season.
And let’s not forget who the Browns intended to be their QB this year: Deshaun Watson. They traded away three first-round picks for the ability to give a $230 million contract to an awful individual who hasn’t thrown for more yards than Flacco did today since 2020.
Merry Christmas, everyone!
🛠️ Everything you need for the Week 16 Christmas slate
For everything else you need for the Week 16 Christmas slate—including our Inactives page—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
🎁 When they score, you score. Unwrap the best TD bets for the Christmas games.
👐 What an insane catch by Justin Jefferson. So good to have him back.
🏀 A tradition unlike any other. NBA betting on Christmas.
💰 Don’t worry, we can’t let NBA fans have all the fun. Our gift to you, free NFL bets and Pick’em plays.
🎉 Wait, Bryce Young finally had a good game? Wow, look at that.
⌛️ It’s been a long time since the Lions won the division. Like a real long time…and now they deserve to party.
🐬 The Dolphins have had quite a year. Can they win in January, though?
👀 Did someone say Game of the Year? Position-by-position breakdown for Ravens vs. 49ers.
😭 When they run out of egg nog. I feel ya, kid.
🤮 I sure hope you didn’t have these guys on your fantasy team. Woof.
The Christmas Day slate of games kicks off with an AFC West showdown featuring two teams with very different mindsets. Jonathan is here to break it down with an assist from Geoff for his best bet…
🎄 Raiders @ Chiefs (-10) (-110, BetMGM)
One of these teams scored 63 points last week, and the other has lost two of their last three games. The irony is the team that scored 63 is 6-8 and fired their coach earlier this season while the team that has lost two of their last three are the defending Super Bowl champs.
Funny how football works sometimes.
The Raiders look like a completely new team since Antonio Pierce took over as Head Coach, ranking second in EPA per play on defense during that time. They will pose a tough test to a Chiefs offense that hasn’t been firing on all cylinders this season.
There is some good news for KC, as Isiah Pacheco is expected to return from his shoulder injury and will slot back in as the primary rusher.
Plus, they now have a clear WR1 as Rashee Rice has ascended to a full-time player over the last four weeks and has rewarded that decision with great production.
The rookie WR has seen nearly a 30% target share and finished as a top-10 fantasy WR in three of his last four games. He should be locked into fantasy lineups and checks in inside the top 12 at the WR position in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks this week.
Travis Kelce is, of course, one of the top TE options despite his relatively modest production recently.
It’s still up in the air whether the Raiders will get their top RB back after Zamir White filled in admirably in last week’s blowout win. Jacobs has averaged nearly 22 opportunities per game since McDaniels was fired and should return to a similar workload as the Raiders try to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.
Davante Adams delivered a big game last week and has had double-digit targets in four of his last five games. He also spoke highly of his rookie QB after the game and fantasy managers have to hope the Raiders offense has some magic left for a tough matchup on the road in Kansas City.
The defensive play of both teams means this isn’t a game to get fancy with the secondary pieces—start the studs and let them carry you into fantasy championships next week.
💰 Best Bet: Under 40.5 points (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: 40.0 (-110)
Betting an under on Christmas Day may get you labeled as an Ebenezer Scrooge but if everything goes as planned, all the Ghost of Christmas Future will be showing you are pictures of green checkmarks in your betting accounts.
We have two teams in the Chiefs and the Raiders who have been prime under targets all season. Vegas is an incredible 10-4 to the under and is 4-1 at hitting unders when they go off as away underdogs. The Chiefs are 9-5 to the under and are 5-1 to the under in six home games.
Despite the offensive explosion from last week, the Raiders are still dead last in plays per game and are 28th in plays per game over their last three starts. With Josh Jacobs (questionable) potentially back, there’s also a great chance they’ll try to run the ball as much as possible and neutralize the Chiefs pass rush. The Chiefs project to run the ball more as well with Isiah Pacheco now healthy.
The weather isn’t supposed to be crazy bad but 37F with winds in the 10-12mph range speaks to a more drawn-out, run-heavy affair. I like the under as long as the total stays above 40.0 for a Christmas Day appetizer.
With yet another divisional matchup on tap, this time in the NFC East, Jonathan is back to walk us through the ins and outs, while Geoff stops by with his best bet…
🎄 Giants @ Eagles (-13.5) (-110, BetMGM)
This has suddenly become a critical game for the Eagles following three straight losses. Another loss may put them in full crisis mode, so this is as close to a must-win game as possible for a team that has already clinched a playoff spot.
The Giants played their way out of a top pick by winning three games in a row, but the magic ran out on the road in New Orleans last week when they only managed to put up six points.
These teams are at opposite ends of the offensive efficiency spectrum, and the Eagles are double-digit favorites, so all signs point to a comfortable win for Philadelphia. But these divisional matchups can often go against expectations.
On the defensive side, neither team has been particularly strong, and both have distinct weaknesses.
The Eagles are giving up the fifth-most passing yards per game this season and are giving up the most fantasy points per game to WRs. With Darren Waller back in the lineup and some flashes in recent weeks from the likes of Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt, we could see the Giants move the ball through the air effectively.
The Giants' defense is giving up the fourth-most rushing yards per game on the season and ranks poorly against both RBs and WRs in terms of fantasy points allowed per game. We just saw the Philly offense put up 178 rushing yards and two TDs on the ground in Seattle, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see similar production in this matchup.
These defensive vulnerabilities are great news for fantasy managers, and there are plenty of players in this game who should be in starting lineups. On the Giants side, that is mainly just Saquon Barkley, who is a solid RB2 in the Fantasy Life consensus rankings, but Darren Waller is also in the streaming TE conversation.
The Eagles offense should support multiple elite fantasy options this week and the rankings reflect that. Jalen Hurts is neck-and-neck with Josh Allen for the top QB spot on the week, while A.J. Brown clocks in as a top-three option at WR. D’Andre Swift (RB18), DeVonta Smith (WR21), and Dallas Goedert (TE11) are all ranked as starters at their position.
If you have Eagles players on your team, you probably want to start them, and you just have to hope your guy isn’t the odd one out. If we’re lucky, this could be a get-right game where Philadelphia wins by 30, and most of their offensive pieces get there.
💰 Best Bet: Eagles -13.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: 13.5 (-120)
It’s easy to scoff at the idea of the Eagles laying 13.5 points to anyone. They’ve lost three in a row, been blown out by two NFC East rivals, and completely blew a win (and cover) against the Seahawks last week.
All of the above is true but the fact remains, they are the better team by a mile this week. The Giants have a -149 point differential on the season and last week allowed another top pass rush in the Saints to sack Tommy DeVito seven times, nearly knocking him out of the game.
This is also the spot where you typically see the best out of Jalen Hurts. Since entering the league Hurts is 17-7-1 ATS in all games he’s started in Philadelphia (per The Action Network). The Giants' rush defense is also a major concern as they rank just 25th in rush EPA and will be up against an Eagles offense that is 5th in rush success rate.
It may not be what people want or tune in for, but an Eagles blowout win does seem likely in the second Christmas game of 2023.
The Christmas Day slate caps off with a potential Super Bowl preview between NFL powerhouses. Matt LaMarca is here to break down everything you need to know and gift us with his top prop bet for the game…
🎄 Ravens @ 49ers (-6) (-110, BetMGM)
We all must’ve been very good boys and girls this year because Santa is leaving us an outstanding gift under the Christmas tree. The Ravens will travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in a battle between the two best teams in football.
Any way you slice it, this should be a really good game and a potential Super Bowl preview.
Let’s start with the 49ers.
They’ve become known for their defense over the past few seasons, and they have a pretty good unit once again in 2023. San Francisco has slipped a bit as of late, but they’re still eighth in EPA allowed per play and second in points allowed per game.
However, it’s the offense that's really shined this season. Brock Purdy (consensus QB7) is leading the league in virtually every efficiency metric at QB and has made the 49ers' offense a juggernaut.
With Purdy under center in 2023, San Francisco leads the league in EPA per play at .205, which is nearly double Miami's second-place EPA per play of .120.
The Ravens have had an excellent defense this season, but there’s simply no stopping this 49ers unit at full strength.
Since Deebo Samuel (WR10) and Trent Williams both returned to the lineup in Week 10, San Francisco has averaged an incredible 34.5 points and 437 yards per game. Their numbers aren’t inflated by a single game either, as the 49ers have been rolling teams every week now for over a month.
Are the Ravens up to the task of facing this juggernaut? They’re led by Lamar Jackson (QB6), who remains arguably the toughest player in the league to game plan against.
Jackson was at his best last week, bobbing and weaving through Jaguars pass-rushers to extend plays and open up rushing lanes. He accounted for 171 passing yards and 97 rushing yards and is a top-five candidate in the running for a second MVP award.
Jackson’s legs could pay dividends in this matchup. The 49ers’ biggest deficiency on defense has been against the run. They’re merely 29th in rushing EPA allowed, and the Ravens boast the best rushing attack in football. They currently lead the league in rushing EPA and success rate, so I’d expect a run-heavy game plan from Baltimore in this matchup.
💰 Top Prop: Gus Edwards Over 39.5 rushing yards (-115; BetMGM)
This sets up as a big spot for the Ravens’ ground game. The 49ers biggest liability on defense has been stopping the run: They’re 29th in rushing EPA against and 22nd in success rate.
The Ravens backfield remains a true committee, with Edwards, Keaton Mitchell, and Justice Hill all seeing work at running back. That said, Edwards remains the top dog. He led the trio with 43% of the carries last week, and he turned his 16 opportunities into 58 yards.
I wouldn’t expect another 16 carries vs. San Francisco, but if he can approach double-digits, he has a good chance to go over 39.5 yards.
