It's time for the underwear Olympics...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Refind:
- A heavy RB-news day...
- Fantasy Fixers: Dolphins
- Seeing the future. A Windy City value...
- The Watercooler is overflowing.
- It's 3/1. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...
With free agency just around the corner and most of the NFL's top brass gathered together in Indianapolis for the combine, the offseason news is heating up.
Yesterday was a particularly busy day for RB news.
➡️ Leonard Fournette is out in Tampa Bay.
Fournette requested a release from the Buccaneers, which the team will oblige.
Fournette registered career-lows in average yards after contact (2.3), and missed tackles forced per attempt (8%). However, he has shown an ability to play all three downs with the Buccaneers and has eclipsed the 20% TPRR mark every season of his career. His ability as a receiver keeps an every-down role in his range of outcomes.
Rachaad White has been the RB33 in recent drafts over on Underdog, but his ADP is set to rise with Fournette gone. White wasn't impressive on the ground in his rookie season, ranking well below the NFL average in yards after contact (2.3), missed tackles forced per attempt (11%) and 10-plus yard attempts (6%).
In the receiving department, White posted a 22% TPRR, which is RB1-worthy over the last 10 years.
The Buccaneers have decent draft capital invested in White with the 91st pick from a year ago, but they could add competition. On a team that must replace Tom Brady, we need to lower our upside expectations in the TD department, but White's receiving profile makes him an interesting back to target in fantasy drafts.
➡️ Breece Hall and Javonte Williams are trending in the right direction.
Hall underwent ACL surgery last November, putting the beginning of his 2023 season in jeopardy. However, Jets' GM, Joe Douglas, indicated Hall is on track to be ready for Week 1.
Underdog drafters seem to be in tune with Hall's recovery, selecting him at the two-three turn with an ADP of 25.1 as the RB8 off the board.
While Williams still has a long way to go in his rehab after tearing his ACL, MCL, meniscus and hamstring, we got encouraging news.
Williams is currently a late sixth-round pick on Underdog as drafters are playing it cautiously after J.K. Dobbins failed to bounce back from a similar injury last year.
➡️ James Cook could be in line for an expanded role
Cook didn't take over the passing-down role fantasy managers coveted based on his collegiate profile. Still, he was great in that role when given a chance. Cook delivered a high-end RB1 YPRR (1.43) and TPRR (26%) on 126 routes, per PFF data. His 2.3 aDOT was also encouraging — the second-year RB has mismatch ability beyond the line of scrimmage versus linebackers and safeties.
While Brandon Beane didn't anoint Cook as the future passing-down option, he did speak of an expanded role at the combine. Cook has some decent draft capital insulation as a second-rounder last year, and Devin Singletary is a free agent. He currently goes in the eighth round of Big Board drafts on Underdog as the RB29 — a price we could see rise quickly in the coming weeks.
➡️ Tyler Allgeier might not be safe.
Allgeier started slowly as a rookie but finished the season as the RB30 in PPR formats. However, he was only a fifth-round pick, leaving him as a prime candidate to lose value if Atlanta adds an RB in the draft or free agency — something GM Terry Fontenot hinted at yesterday.
The Falcons also still have Cordarrelle Patterson under contract, which could leave us facing another three-way rotation in Atlanta in 2023. Allgeier is currently the RB25 off the board as a Round 7 selection on Underdog. That isn't a great price, and there is a decent chance it holds or decreases once Atlanta adds an RB.
Be sure to check out the Watercooler below to get caught up on the rest of a busy 24-hour news cycle...
🌳 The Next Piece In the Fantasy Life Coaching Tree...
Think of Bill Belichick's coaching tree...but actually good.
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Just remember who gave you the league-winning tips for your Fantasy Football league 😉
The NFL offseason is now in full swing with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL Draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Pete is here to take on our next project, the Dolphins...
👷♀️ Team Summary
We all laughed last summer when Tyreek Hill compared Tua Tagovailoa to Patrick Mahomes and called Tua “the most accurate QB in the NFL”. It seemed ludicrous at the time and a classic case of a player blindly gassing up his teammate, but fast forward to the end of the 2022 season, and Hill didn’t seem so crazy after all:
Both Hill and Jaylen Waddle put up massive seasons as arguably the best WR duo in the NFL, and the two of them could be found on many championship-winning fantasy rosters.
The Dolphins played at a blistering pace and finished top-six in the league in pass rate above expectation. In fact, Tua was a legitimate MVP candidate at one point and finished third in QBR while operating the Mike McDaniel scheme at a high level.
Ultimately, QB injuries derailed any hopes of a playoff run, but Miami still managed a respectable 9-8 record en route to a second-place finish in the AFC East. Impressively, they even nearly knocked off their divisional rival, Buffalo, in the Wild Card round of the playoffs despite having been forced to start a third-string QB in that game.
All in all, it wasn’t a bad year for the Dolphins.
Still, there’s plenty to improve upon if Miami is to compete with the rest of the heavy hitters in the AFC next season. Some of that groundwork has already been laid this offseason with the hiring of Vic Fangio to shore up their leaky defense, which finished near the bottom of the league in multiple categories:
- Yards per game (18th)
- Points per game (24th)
- Yards per play (14th)
- Third-down defense (24th)
- Red-zone defense (23rd)
- Takeaways (30th)
- Sacks per pass attempt (22nd)
But in order to become true Super Bowl contenders, the Dolphins will also need to buttress their QB depth and find additional playmakers to supplement Hill and Waddle.
🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations
1. Find a Brock Purdy
Easier said than done, right? But if there’s one team in the league that needs to place a big premium on their backup QB, it’s the Dolphins. Tua’s 2022 season was a revelation when he was on the field, but he ended up playing in just 13 games due to multiple concussions. His second head injury forced a 36-day stint in the concussion protocol, which ultimately ended Tua’s season and forced him to miss Miami’s playoff game.
When Tua was out, backups Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson did their best to keep the ship afloat, but the team needs to find a trustworthy backup signal caller if/when Tua were to miss time again.
This past season, the 49ers showed that a competent backup like Brock Purdy can keep a team in contention well into the playoffs. Conversely, the Dolphins and Ravens both learned the hard way following poor performances from Thompson and Tyler Huntley that lack of competent QB depth can lead to first-round playoff exits.
Whether it’s targeting a proven backup like Jacoby Brissett in free agency or taking a stab at a late-round QB in the draft like Max Duggan or Hendon Hooker, Miami needs to be aggressive with solidifying their QB depth this offseason.
2. Beef up Tua’s Protection
The Dolphins are well aware that they need to protect Tua better. This offseason, Miami has already hired a new offensive line coach, Butch Barry, who was previously with Denver.
That said, depth continues to be an issue for the offensive line. While the Dolphins spent a pretty penny last offseason to sign tackle Terron Armstead and center Connor Williams, injuries quickly mounted in 2022. Williams (PFF’s fourth-highest graded center) and Robert Hunt (PFF’s ninth-highest graded guard) were the only two offensive linemen who played all 17 games for Miami last year.
However, it will be difficult for the Dolphins to add adequate depth on the offensive line, as they currently have the sixth-least salary cap space and don’t have a first-round draft pick in 2023. Miami forfeited their own first-round pick as part of their punishment for having violated tampering rules with Tom Brady and Sean Payton, and they traded away their other first-round pick in 2023 as part of the deal to acquire Bradley Chubb last November.
The Dolphins do, however, still have some draft capital to address their needs:
- Round 2 - 51st overall
- Round 3 - 77th overall
- Round 3 - 84th overall (from New England)
- Round 6 - 178th overall (from Chicago)
- Round 7 - 240th overall
I won’t pretend like I have a deep knowledge of the left guards and interior linemen available in this year’s draft class, but Miami would be wise to spend at least a couple of their draft picks to bolster the offensive line. Apparently, there should be some good prospects available in this range.
💩 What a huge free-agency bust. They are moving on.
📢 Go find your own!!! This GM wants to keep his WR.
💤 The NFL NEVER Sleeps. All of the news you missed.
🧞♂️ Trade rumors are heating up. This veteran WR might get his wish.
✂️ Mariota is out in Atlanta. They have a lot of cap room now...
🏷 A top TE off the market? Sounds like we could see a tag or extension...
🥴️ He will begin the offseason as their QB1. But he is not the starter.
📰 News changes fast at this time of year. Dude, come on.
💪 This GM isn't playing it cute and sexy. Toughness is the name of the game?
⛪️ He didn't break out as many had hoped. The head coach still believes.
Finding values on NFL future bets is a year-round venture, but most of us don't have the time to birddog all of the options. That is why we are lucky to have our resident futures expert, LaMarca, constantly sniffing for value...
When I’m looking to bet futures at this point in the season, I’m looking for one thing: closing line value.
As much as we might like to think differently, none of us can really predict the future when it comes to the NFL. It’s a league with a ton of year-to-year variance. Teams like the Rams can fall from the Super Bowl in one year to completely out of the playoffs the next, while teams like the Jaguars can rise in the opposite direction.
It only takes one year for your fortunes to turn around completely.
That’s why I’m extremely interested in the Bears to win the NFC at +3000 on BetMGM.
🔮 Bears to win NFC Championship +3000 @ BetMGM
Are the Bears really going to challenge for the conference crown? Probably not. But at 30-1, it gives me plenty of hedge equity if the Bears can make it to the postseason. It also gives them the fourth-longest odds in the entire conference, and I think that severely underrates the talent level this team will have on the field in September.
The Bears may not look like much now, but they have more cap space than any other team in football. They currently have just under $100M available, and no other team has more than $66.7M. They also have the flexibility to open up even more space if they’re willing to restructure some of their more expensive contracts.
Building your roster through free agency might not be the best long-term plan for building your franchise, but it can result in a really quick turnaround. The Jaguars went to the playoffs after spending the most money in free agency last year, while the Patriots did the same two years ago.
The Bears also possess a dynamic young quarterback in Justin Fields, who could potentially make a leap in his third professional season. He’s one of the best running quarterbacks in league history, and he should have more pass-catching talent supporting him next season. It would not be shocking if he takes a sizable step forward next year, just like Jalen Hurts did last year.
If that’s not enough to get you excited, don’t forget that the Bears also have the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They could use that pick to select an impact defensive player – something that the team sorely needs – or they could trade it for a host of assets. Whichever direction they go should give the team a sizable upgrade before even tapping into free agency.
Finally, the NFC North should be wide open in 2023. The Packers seem on the verge of finally divorcing Aaron Rodgers, while there’s no way the Vikings can get as lucky as they did last year. Most people like the Lions as the sleeper team in that division, but I see no reason why it can’t be the Bears. I’ll definitely have some exposure to the Bears winning the division next season, and I think their odds of winning the conference have plenty of value as well. At a minimum, I expect this number to drop significantly once the team finishes its free agency shopping spree.
