🤪 A MESSY Week 1 (Stuff To Know)

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Paramount+:

We’ve finally arrived. Week 1 is here and we got our work cut out for us.

Normally, things are pretty tame at the start of the season from an injury perspective, but not this year. We have massive injury news to sift through and moves we need to make.

Luckily for you, we have all the news and resources you need to get off to a fast start.

Let’s dig in…

😭 The TE position is in shambles

Mark Andrews is out, which makes Isaiah Likely a Top 10 option (more on that below in the Morning Download) and other top TEs like Darren Waller (hamstring) and George Kittle (groin) are not expected to be at 100% today.

With Mark Andrews (quad) out, T.J. Hockenson is the only TE projected for more than 7.75 half PPR points this week on @UnderdogFantasy 🤯

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks)
Sep 10, 2023

This dynamic leaves fantasy players with a true “choose your own adventure” at the position.

Obviously, you start your top options—guys like Dallas Goedert, Tyler Higbee, David Njoku, etc.—but don’t be afraid to get creative. The truth is that the projection difference between the TE5 and TE20 is marginal.

If you think you are a favorite, you can chase targets with guys like Luke Musgrave and Hunter Henry, who should provide a high floor.

If you feel like you are an underdog, feel free to go TD-hunting with more boom/bust guys like Greg Dulcich, Cole Kmet, and Irv Smith.

👀 Keep an eye on the Colts backfield

The Colts backfield has been a big source of drama for the past month, and that does not appear to be stopping anytime soon.

Zack Moss, who the team had been hinting would be their starting RB in Jonathan Taylor’s absence, will not play today as he recovers from his forearm injury.

That leaves the team with only Deon Jackson, Evan Hull, and Jake Funk at the position to flank Anthony Richardson in his debut. We broke down the profiles of both Jackson and Hull after the initial Taylor saga fallout.

If you need points today, Jackson is likely the better bet (especially in PPR leagues), but I’m skeptical that Richardson is going to check the ball down a lot. I’d much prefer to stash and take a peek at the rookie Hull, who could be leaned on the most between the tackles.

Speaking of Taylor, rumors are he’s healthy and could pass a physical. Could a trade still be in the cards???

🛠️ Everything you need for Week 1

• I would not be surprised to see some more eyebrow-raising status updates before the games kick off today. Make sure to bookmark our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates.

• If you are debating any tough start/sit decisions, you can consult our Rankings page, Projections, or our Start/Sit tool.

• For a macro view of the slate, The Fantasy Life Game Hub compiles everything you need to know about each NFL game. From fantasy to sports betting, the Hub has you covered:

• Finally, our Twitter page is a great resource for real-time updates and the latest news.

Read on for more info in the Morning Download on the Ravens TEs, Broncos WRs, and Panthers WRs, as well as updates in the Watercooler on Saints RBs, Patriots WRs, and Packers WRs.

Speaking of everything you need for Week 1, you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below.

👀 The Road to Las Vegas Begins on Paramount+

Live games from Week 1 all the way through Super Bowl LVIII!

Paramount+ is your home to stream local, national and postseason NFL games on CBS live, all the way through Super Bowl LVIII.

Sign up for Paramount+ now to catch CBS games all season long including your local Week 1 matchups:

1:00 pm ET Kick-Off

• Cincinnati at Cleveland

• Tampa Bay at Minnesota

• Tennessee at New Orleans

• Houston at Baltimore

4:25 pm ET Kick-Off

• Miami at LA Chargers

• Las Vegas at Denver

• Philadelphia at New England (National Double-header Game)

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Week 1 has already been a whirlwind. Whether it be dealing with injuries to your starters or battling your weekly start/sit decisions, Matt LaMarca is here to catch you up on the most important news to guide your lineup decisions this afternoon…

The NFL landscape is constantly changing.

Unfortunately, that means that we’re forced to react to different pieces of news right up until our lineups lock.

Injuries can have a massive impact on both fantasy football and betting, so you need to have the most up-to-date information to make the best decisions.

Let’s dive into some of the biggest developments from Saturday.

❌ Mark Andrews Not Expected To Play

The hits just keep on coming at tight end.

The top tight end in fantasy sat out on Thursday Night Football, and it appears as though Mark Andrews will join him on the sidelines on Sunday:

#Ravens TE Mark Andrews, who has dealt with a quad injury for the last few weeks and is listed as questionable, is not likely to play vs the #Texans, per me and @TomPelissero. A bit of a surprise.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)
Sep 10, 2023

It’s a massive blow for anyone who invested significant draft capital at the position, though it doesn’t seem like either player will miss extended time. Still, not having one of your early draft picks in the lineup for Week 1 is never fun.

With Andrews out of the picture, Isaiah Likely becomes an excellent starting fantasy tight end. If you can scoop him up in free agency – or already have him stashed on your bench – there aren’t a ton of tight ends I’d start over him in what is expected to be the high-scoring game of the day.

🐴 Broncos Elevate Two Receivers

The Broncos have officially elevated Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Phillip Dorsett from the practice squad to the active roster. That does not bode well for the availability of Jerry Jeudy, who is not expected to play:

Broncos’ WR Jerry Jeudy, listed as questionable for today due to a hamstring injury, is not expected to play vs. the Raiders, per source.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Sep 10, 2023

Jeudy is still rehabbing a hamstring injury he suffered at practice back in August, and he was someone that fantasy owners were very excited about this offseason.

Unfortunately, it seems like they’re going to have to wait a week to plug him into their fantasy lineups.

If Jeudy is ruled out, the rest of the Broncos’ pass-catchers become very appealing in what should be a plus matchup vs. the Seahawks.

Courtland Sutton is a locked-and-loaded starter, while Marvin Mims is a viable WR3 or flex play.

✅ Adam Thielen Expected To Play

The Panthers’ receiving corps is one of the most wide-open in the NFL.

Thielen, DJ Chark, Jonathan Mingo, and Terrace Marshall Jr. could all theoretically claim the top spot on the depth chart, making it a high-risk, high-reward situation for fantasy purposes.

However, the Panthers have dealt with some injuries at the position in recent weeks. Chark has already been ruled out for Sunday’s contest vs. the Falcons, while Thielen is listed as questionable.

The good news is that Thielen appears on track to suit up. He has also emerged as the favorite to be the Panthers’ leading receiver after displaying strong chemistry with Bryce Young during the preseason, as he had five targets in the team’s preseason finale, combining with Young for four catches, 48 yards, and a score.

There will likely be some growing pains with the Carolina offense this season, but if Thielen can carve out the top receiver job, he has the potential to provide some value.

Our rankings team isn’t quite as bullish on Thielen as I am – he checks in as approximately the No. 54 wide receiver in our Week 1 rankings – but I think he’s useable in a pinch.

🚁 Is it REALLY Week 1 without Ian’s helicopter play?! 100+ yards and 2 TDs on the way.

🚑️ Cooper Kupp goes to IR. It’s the smart decision by the team, although Matthew is very concerned.

📈 What a timely performance by Caleb Williams. The Tankathon officially starts today.

📺 Looking for some Week 1 action? Lock in these last-minute bets!

📠 Week 1 Fun Facts. Poor Cardinals.

🥩 No Kendre, No Kamara. This Saints back is going to get fed.

💀 2 Patriots WRs to consider starting. It’s a skeleton crew.

🔥 Why you should fire up Romeo Doubs. They are going to need him today.

😁 My reaction after seeing this photo? Hell ya. This one too.

🤔 Very interesting nugget about the Jets backfield. Today’s split will be informative.

Here at Fantasy Life, our staff (and Discord) members are rifling off their favorite bets day in and day out. Matt LaMarca couldn’t help but stick around to make sure you get the same action…

One of the best parts about sports betting is the communal aspect.

If you have a group of friends that all bet on the NFL, you can almost guarantee that they have a group chat where they’re discussing their bets throughout the week.

We’re no different here at Fantasy Life.

Our betting team – featuring Matthew Freedman, Eliot Crist, Geoff Ulrich, and myself – is routinely discussing our plays in the Fantasy Life Discord.

Each of us has plays that we’re passionate about, and the goal is to get the other members on board as well.

Let’s dive into some of our groups’ favorite targets for NFL Week 1.

📲 Sides

Tennessee Titans (+3.0) at New Orleans Saints (-115, BetMGM)

This is my personal favorite play of the week. I locked this bet in earlier this offseason at +3.5, and unfortunately, the line has come down a bit across the industry.

That said, you can still get the Titans +3.0 at -115 on BetMGM. I still think that’s a great number.

The Titans start the year as one of the most undervalued teams in the betting market.

They had an epic collapse down the stretch in 2022, but a lot of that can be attributed to their quarterback play. The team did not have a healthy Ryan Tannehill for most of the contests, and backups Malik Willis and Joshua Dobbs represented a clear downgrade.

Tannehill will be back at the helm vs. the Saints, and he’ll have a true No. 1 receiver at his disposal in DeAndre Hopkins.

His numbers dipped last year without A.J. Brown to lean on, so Hopkins should hopefully be able to fill that void. The team also has some intriguing young pass-catchers in Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo, while Derrick Henry remains a massive presence in the backfield.

On the other side, the Saints have emerged as the favorites in the worst division in football. They have a very good chance of winning the NFC South – largely due to their cupcake schedule – but that doesn’t make them a good football team.

The biggest reason for optimism with the Saints is the offseason acquisition of Derek Carr, but I’m not sure that Carr is any good at this point. He was 32nd among quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE, putting him right in the same ballpark as Andy Dalton (29th) and Jameis Winston (34th).

The Titans and Mike Vrabel have historically been excellent as underdogs, and Vrabel and Tannehill are a combined 13-9-1 ATS as dogs during the regular season. I think this is a phenomenal spot for them to start the season off right.

I tried to tell everyone. Mark Andrews can do what Travis Kelce can do. And he proved it the very first week!

— Jason Moore (@jasonffl)
Sep 10, 2023