Just waiting for the âSpencer Rattler could go in the first roundâ reportsâŠ
In todayâs Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
Giants TE Debates Retirement: Is it because of his QB situation?
Happy âThe Beast â release day to all who observe
Rookie TE Super Model Tiers 1 and 2: Brock Bowers is a DAWG
Itâs 4/10. Take it away, Chris AllenâŠ
Thereâs a heightened sense of uncertainty at this point in the draft cycle.
Weâve exhausted all of the practical uses of the data weâve been given regarding the rookies. Now, weâre nitpicking. At the same time, front office personnel have turned into ninjas from the Foot Clan with the constant smokescreens to keep us all guessing about their draft plans.
Plus, we still have the veterans looking for new deals to consider. As a Bengals fan, Iâve seen more trades involving Tee Higgins than Iâd like. Regardless, from Higgins to Brandon Aiyuk, any certainty about how the night of the 25th will go instantly gets tossed out the window.
But thatâs (somewhat) expected. Remove the player names, and this is the annual circus getting us to the first-overall selection. However, the 2024 season gave us its own added spice on examples of uncertainty before resetting rosters for the upcoming season.
Colleague @VicTafur caught up with Darren Waller in Vegas recently. When will Waller inform the Giants if he's retiring? He said it would be ideal to let them know before the draft "but I also donât want to put that on myself. Itâs gotta be before summer break, for sure.â⊠twitter.com/i/web/status/1âŠ
On the one hand, Darren Wallerâs hesitancy isnât without merit. The soon-to-be 32-year-old TE has dealt with lower-leg injuries every year since 2019. He hasnât played a full season since â20. But in the midst of his on-field setbacks, Waller has strived to help folks off the field. With one Pro Bowl to his resume and an albeit short-lived playoff run, hanging âem up at this point would be commendable.
On the other hand, itâd be objectively funny if Waller is waiting to see if heâll be playing with another QB this season.
Admittedly, Giants GM Joe Schoen already indicated the âteam has other needsâ. But Jerry Jones said Dallas was âall-inâ and splurged onâŠ*checks notes*âŠEric Kendricks. According to Jim Harbaugh, J.J. McCarthy will be the first QB off the board. People say things.
Regardless, the fantasy implications (with Daniel Jones or McCarthy under center) are intriguing. Wallerâs ADP sits at TE32 on Underdog. Folks have more confidence in Chig Okonkwo (TE25) playing behind Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and (maybe?) Treylon Burks than Waller competing withâŠ*again checks notes*âŠIsaiah McKenzie (Iâm kind of kidding). Lest we forget, when healthy, at least Waller functioned as a top option in their passing game:
Air Yard Share: 23.0%, 2nd (amongst all TEs)
Target Share: 21.0%, 2nd
TPRR: 20.3%, 12th
Did Waller meet expectations in 2023? No.
But maybe when you have a midseason QB battle between Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito, a lot of things didnât go the way you thought they would. So while many might dismiss Wallerâs decision, drafters with 3-TE builds on their minds should look to the Giantsâ TE as a value option for 2024.
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đș Is the next Travis Kelce on the way? Dwain and Marcas break it down.
â Former Patriots CB calls it a career. Wouldnât be surprised to see him coaching soon.
đ 400 scouting reports. Test data for 2000 prospects. The Beast is loose!
đź Packersâ president hints at their season opener location. What a way to kick off 2024.
đ€ Former MVP plays catch with kids while on vacation. That arm still looks good.
đą Justin Jefferson is jealous of his old LSU teammates. Itâs all love, though.
â NFL adds more helmet designs for the upcoming season. Anything to keep our guys safe.
đ Panthers eyeing multiple WRs in the draft. Get Bryce Young some help!
đ° The Jaguars strike a deal with their star pass rusher. Now, fix the offense. Please?
We let Dwain McFarland out of the lab to watch the eclipse and then immediately sent him back inside to evaluate the incoming class of rookie TEs. Of course, he came up with a model so great it couldnât just be called a âTE model.â
Presenting: Fantasy Lifeâs new Rookie TE Super Model.
đ„ Tier 1 â Superstar Traits With High-End TE1 Upside
đȘ Brock Bowers | Georgia
TE Super Model: 83rd percentile
Age: 21.7
Height: 6â3â
Weight: 243
đ Pedigree
Program Quality Index: 55th percentile
NFL Mock Drafts: Pick 10, Round 1
247 Recruit Player Rating: 4 of 5 stars
Bowers has slipped a few spots in mock drafts over the past month, but he has a chance to become the third TE taken inside the top-10 picks since the 2018 NFL Draft. This would put him in the company of Kyle Pitts and T.J. Hockenson.
đ€ Production and Athleticism
Adjusted Career RYPTPA Index: 100th percentile
Career Targeted QB Rating Index: 92nd percentile
Speed Score Index: 44th percentile*
Adjusted Career receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) is the strongest predictor in the model, with a 0.51 correlation to fantasy points per game over a TEâs first two seasonsâonly behind NFL Draft pick at 0.58. Bowers has the top prospect score in the Super Model database.
Bowers erupted as a true freshman with a 2.16 RYPTPAâthe highest mark on record. He followed that up in each of the next two seasons to earn an age-adjusted RYPTPA of 2.03 (96th percentile).
But that wasnât all. Bowers delivered a top-three all-time finish in every component of Adjusted Career RYPTPA:
Career RYPTPA Over Expected for aDOT: +1.21
Career RYPTPA Over Expected for team passer rating: +1.18
Career RYPTPA Over Expected for Teammate Competition: +1.18
When his QBs looked his way, Bowers rewarded them with a 141.9 QB ratingâthe second-best mark in our database. He was equally impactful against man and zone coverages, outpacing his collegiate peers with at least 250 routes in all categories:
Man TPRR: 20% (+3 percentage points)
Man YPRR: 1.90 (+0.58 yards)
Zone TPRR: 25% (+10)
Zone YPRR: 2.92 (+1.60)
đź Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates
Underdog ADP: TE9, Round 7
Rookie Dynasty ADP: TE1, Pick 4
Hitting on an early-career breakout from the TE position isnât easy. However, if Bowers lands on a roster without much competition, I wouldnât bet against a top-six season out of the gate.
đ„ Tier 2 â Role Traits With Room to Grow Into A Low-End TE1
đïžââïž JaâTavion Sanders | Texas
TE Super Model: 48th percentile
Age: 21.4
Height: 6â4â
Weight: 245
đ Pedigree
Program Quality Index: 0th percentile
NFL Mock Drafts: Pick 40, Round 2
247 Recruit Player Rating: 5 of 5 stars
Sanders was a wide receiver in high school but, at 235 pounds, was classified as an athlete (ATH) prospect. In 2021, he was the No. 30 prospect overall and the No. 1 ATH prospect in the country.
đ€ Production and Athleticism
Adjusted Career RYPTPA Index: 62nd percentile
Career Targeted QB Rating Index: 69th percentile
Speed Score Index: 40th percentile
Despite a non-existent role as a freshman, Sanders scored above average in the production model, where Years 2 and 3 are the most important RYPTPA years for TEs. Here are the correlations to future fantasy points for each year:
Year 1: 0.18
Year 2: 0.40
Year 3: 0.43
Year 4: 0.13
Year 5: -0.04
How well the prospect scores in age-weighted RYPTPA accounts for almost half of their Adjusted Career RYPTPA.
Sanders gets a bump from the Super Model for playing with Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. His career teammate-adjusted RYPTPA was 0.57 over expectationâthe second-best mark in the 2024 TE draft class. That score makes sense in the context of his targeted QB rating. Sanders capitalized when his opportunities came, delivering a 111.0 Career Targeted QB Rating (69th percentile).
đź Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates
Underdog ADP: TE27, Final Rounds
Rookie Dynasty ADP: TE2, Pick 25
The most significant risk for Sanders is finding an offense that wonât pigeonhole him in a part-time role. However, in the right spot, Sanders could develop into a No. 2 or 3 passing-game option and offer fantasy value.
More on the Tier 1 & 2 TEs of 2024
