There are two kinds of people in this world: Trey Lance truthers and Trey Lance deniers...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- The Niners QB situation is a mess
- A sleeper rookie RB crushes his pro day
- Dynasty Rookie Profile: Zay Flowers
- Dynasty Trade Targets: A TE & a WR
- It's 3/30. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers are doing their best to hog the QB drama headlines. But I'm not sure there is a messier situation than what is currently transpiring in San Francisco.
Let me explain...
📚 The Backstory
- The Niners draft Trey Lance with the third overall pick in the 2021 draft, but he starts only four games over the past two seasons. He then suffers a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2 last year.
- The Niners draft Brock Purdy with the last pick (262nd) in the 2022 draft, and he gets his chance to shine after Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo get injured. Purdy rattles off five straight wins as a starter, with 7 wins overall, and leads the team to an NFC Championship game, where he suffers an elbow injury.
- The Niners let Garoppolo walk in free agency and sign Sam Darnold to serve as insurance depth at the QB position.
🎭 The Drama
There is legit uncertainty around Purdy's recovery. Here's what we rounded up in a recent piece on injuries:
Purdy’s completely torn UCL required surgery that didn’t happen until March 10th. He’ll begin throwing in three months and build up his strength from there.
Dr. Porras notes that a repair and brace would have Purdy back throwing in 4 to 5 months and potentially cleared in under 12 months. Dr. Mueller points out that the tear was bad enough to delay surgery, and Purdy’s “absolute best-case scenario” is to be ready by Week 1.
How Concerned Should You Be About Injuries in Fantasy Football??
Now here's where the drama really kicks in. If Purdy isn't ready for Week 1, you'd assume the QB they took third overall two years ago would be in line to start.
Not so fast.
Both GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan have made some eyebrow-raising comments the past few days that would indicate this QB battle is wide open. First Lynch stanned for Purdy:
John Lynch makes it clear that Brock Purdy, Trey Lance and Sam Darnold will all compete for the 49ers' QB job but that Purdy if/when healthy is "the leader in the clubhouse" based on track record established in 2022
And then Shanahan implied Lance will need to battle it out with their new signing:
Kyle Shanahan said that he expects Trey Lance and Sam Darnold to both take first-team reps this offseason while Brock Purdy is out
These two comments predictably sent Twitter into a frenzy yesterday with the fantasy community relitigating Lance's status as a bust.
🌡️ The Takeaway
Even though these comments are interesting, I'm not sure anything has truly changed.
Purdy earned the starting job last year, but he likely won't be available Week 1. It's fair to question the Niners' commitment to Lance, but using it to fully write off his upside would be short-sighted.
Lotta wild Trey Lance extrapolation going on for a guy who played one game in the pouring down rain last year and another where he threw three passes. Totally fine if you prefer Purdy to be starter, but burying Lance for his 2022 makes no sense.
Purdy ran away with the job last year because he was winning. Lance can do the same thing to start 2023...provided he can beat out Darnold.
fantasy football nerds: drafting Trey Lance as the QB6 with Jimmy G clearly the starter
also fantasy football nerds: don't want to touch Trey Lance with a 15-foot pole competing with Sam Darnold and injured Brock Purdy
And if he can't? Well, then, us Lance truthers will finally be forced to eat the L.
‼️ We're Going LIVE For A Best Ball Draft
It's Best Ball season...it's time to watch two of the best do their thing.
Fantasy Life is streaming its first live Best Ball draft of the season!
Watch Peter Overzet and Dwain McFarland LIVE as they tackle an Underdog Best Ball draft TODAY on Fantasy Life LIVE on YouTube at 12:15 PM ET.
Stream it and join the chat to ask questions like:
- Why are you doing a draft in March??? (Because we can never have too much Fantasy Football...)
- Why does Pete hate running backs???
- Ask Dwain about his favorite Rookie Super Model (it's NOT what you think!)
PLUS, while you're watching, you can sign up for Underdog Fantasy and join your own Best Ball draft. Use promo code: LIFE to get a 100% deposit match up to $100!
🚀 Don't forget about this rookie RB. He torched his pro day.
🦁 The Lions bring back a familiar face. He has more competition these days, though.
😴 A sleeper RB you shouldn't write off. Not a bad spot to be.
📋 Who will be the Commanders' QB? The GM weighs in.
✋ Tee Higgins changes his number. Not a traditional WR number, but I dig it.
🔭 Do you see that? It's football approaching in the distance. Win totals are here.
📏 How tall do you want your QB? The Panthers doth protest too much, methinks.
The NFL Draft is fast approaching, so it's time to dig into the 2023 rookie class. Today Dwain profiles an intriguing WR prospect...
👑 Zay Flowers
- Rookie Draft ADP: 7 (WR4)
- Underdog ADP: 98 (WR47)
Flowers wasn’t a household name early in his career, thanks to a Boston College offense that couldn’t even muster 2,300 passing yards in either of his first two seasons. However, he dominated opportunities from his sophomore season onward and compiled 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 TDs in his senior campaign.
That last season put him on the radar for NFL draft analysts and mock drafters – his expected draft capital resided in the third round before 2022 but frothed to late Round 1 status over the last few weeks. He could still end up slipping into the second round, but that now appears to be more of a floor scenario.
Despite a smaller stature (5’8 and 182 lbs.), Flowers demonstrated the ability to play on the outside and attack vertically. His best fit might be in the slot in the NFL, but he can unlock the intermediate zones of the field and has the potential to function as an off-ball Z in two-wide sets. He is the WR5 as a Tier 2 option in the Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model.
📈 Pros
🚀 Sophomore Breakout
Flowers delivered a 34% dominator rating in his age-20 season and followed it up with marks of 36% and 47% in his junior and senior years. He was an absolute target monster over that stretch, with target shares of 28%, 28% and 31%.
Flowers was more productive against zone coverage with a career 2.38 yards per route run (YPRR) versus a 1.81 YPRR against man. However, only 58% of his targets against man coverage were deemed catchable, and he still demanded a healthy target per route rate at 26%.
💪 Diverse Skillset
The Boston College product was a plus player in yards after the catch (YAC), with a 6.8-yard average. What makes that number impressive is the fact that Flowers wasn’t just an underneath option – he garnered a 13.0 career average depth of target (aDOT), which is above average.
Typically, as aDOT goes up, YAC comes down. Since 2014, players with an aDOT between 12 and 14 yards averaged a 4.9 YAC, which Flowers beat by almost two yards.
Flowers played most of his snaps on the outside, and, on average, 30% of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield, well above the NCAA average of 17%. While his success rate attacking downfield at the next level could be a challenge against longer and faster defensive backs, he certainly shouldn’t be viewed as an underneath-only type of prospect.
He has a knack for jumping into a defender's back pocket and putting them in a blender once their hips turn. There are a lot of ways to get Flowers involved at the next level, which gives him outs – especially with a creative play-caller.
📉 Cons
👨🎓 Four-year prospect
We have seen four-year options like Chris Olave and Calvin Ridley prosper in recent years, so this isn’t a death knell for Flowers.
One difference is how highly those prospects were already thought of before their senior seasons, which does add some risk to Flowers’ profile. However, his early breakout as a sophomore and continued improvement are good signs that help ease concerns about his four-year status.
😨 On-ball vs. Off-ball Splits
The more significant concern for Flowers is the career splits in on- and off-ball alignments against Power Five programs, per PFF data.
While he has shown an ability to play outside and win despite his small stature, he has limitations when lined up on the line of scrimmage. It could be a bigger challenge for him at the next level against stronger competition.
There is a chance Flowers will grow in this area of his game, but this issue could push him into a full-time slot role. On a pass-heavy team that loves to deploy 11 personnel, that could end up being a good thing, but it could make him landing-spot dependent, which adds risk to his profile.
👑 Fantasy Impact
Of the WRs in the top two tiers, Flowers grades the lowest when you remove projected draft capital. There is a lot to like about his game, but he is an older prospect without prototypical size.
Flowers could develop into a nice WR2 on a high-end passing offense thanks to his mixture of YAC and intermediate aDOT prowess. If he can’t progress in on-ball alignments, it could create a cap on playing time and make him slot-dependent.
His high-end comp is Christian Kirk, and Jalen Reagor is the low-end comp.
The sun never sets in dynasty leagues. Sam Wallace offers up two players fantasy managers should be targeting this offseason.
🎯 Darren Waller
The bad: Darren Waller is 30 years old, has missed 14 games over the last two seasons, and was shipped to a new team this offseason.
The good: The New York Giants are top five in available air yards and targets. Waller also has just four seasons of wear and tear and plays a skill position that tends to produce more high-end fantasy finishes at a later age than any other position outside of QB.
Waller is the most talented pass-catcher on the team (for now). The Giants do have three top 90 picks, so adding a talented rookie receiver is not out of the question.
Even if the team spends a premium pick on a wideout, it’s within the range of outcomes that Waller leads both the team and the position in targets.
Head coach Brian Daboll made incredible strides with a putrid offensive group last season.
(No offense to Richie James & Isaiah Hodgins)
They were league average in scoring (15th), won nine games, and won a road playoff game.
Adding Waller as a top weapon for Daniel Jones could mean great things for the veteran over the next few years. Consider Waller a strong dynasty buy at his current price.
KTC has Waller ranked as the dynasty TE9 with a trade value of rookie pick 2.06 in SF formats. I would happily send an early 2nd round pick or a pair of mid/late 2nd round picks for him. His age and injury history have depressed his value, but I believe he still has solid seasons in his future.
🎯 Kadarius Toney
“Lightning in a bottle” is a great way to describe Kadarius Toney.
There are few players who are as electric with the ball in their hands as the third-year wideout. Talent isn’t the issue. Health, unfortunately, has been.
However, if we assume health moving forward, the combination of talent and opportunity could send Toney rocketing up draft boards. This makes him an ideal dynasty trade target.
Heading into Conference Championship Weekend, Dwain McFarland made the case for Toney with an exceptional, data-driven argument.
The second-year WR demonstrated an elite ability to demand targets as a rookie on limited routes, and that trend has continued in year two with an elite 26% TPRR.
While Toney benefits from those looks (screens and trick or gadget plays), he has a 22% TPRR over the last two seasons on non-screen/trick play routes. Additionally, he has a 23% TPRR against man coverage, where 92 of 99 routes have been non-gadget plays.
Dwain goes on to note that Toney isn’t just a gadget player. He’s versatile, explosive, and fantasy managers are ready to get hurt again.
KTC has Toney ranked as the dynasty WR43 with a trade value of rookie pick 2.05 in SF formats. I’m all in at that price and would even send a bit more to seal the deal.
His combination of cost and upside make him a smash addition to your dynasty squad.
