💪 A Record-Setting Rookie TE Class!?!

Brian Hoyer has found a new home... update the rankings.

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, we want to hear from you!

• Mock Draft Nuggets.
• What Now. Be Hopeful, Not Optimistic.
• Big Board Superflex Strategy.
• Another QB on the trade block?
• It's 4/5. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...

Lance Zierlein — the king of prospect analysis over at NFL.com — dropped an updated mock draft yesterday, and it was loaded with interesting landing spots, including a few non-consensus ones.

While this doesn't mean everything will necessarily play out the way Zierlein sees it, he is plugged in with NFL circles and studies the prospects as much as anyone, making his mock a worthwhile data point to consider.

Here are the top takeaways from Zierlein's latest mock...

🥇 It Could Be a Record First Round for TEs

While recent history suggests investing early picks in TEs isn't a great idea, analysts and teams seem to be giddy with the 2023 class.

Zierlein has Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer and Luke Musgrave going in the top 31 selections — which would tie the record for the most in Round 1. Darnell Washington has also received first-round buzz, which leaves the door open for a record-setting four-TE first round.

The Fantasy Life Rookie TE Super Model will drop this Friday, so stay tuned for more analysis! If you want a sneak peek, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Podcast with Marcas and Dwain.

Don't resist, just watch.

🚂 Jaxon Smith-Njigba is Gaining Steam

When the NFL Draft season kicked off after the Super Bowl, Smith-Njigba was already adored by fantasy analysts. However, many draft analysts expected him to fall toward the late first round after names like Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston.

That sentiment has changed recently and Zierlein — like Daniel Jeremiah — now has JSN as the first WR off the board.
 

It is looking more and more likely that Smith-Njigba — a favorite of the Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model — will be the top WR drafted.

😴 Are We Sleeping on Cedric Tillman?

The Fantasy Life Rookie WR Model wasn't crazy about Tillman, but Zierlein thinks he could be a steal as a late-first-round pick (Kansas City in this mock). In a draft devoid of many prototype-size options at the top of the draft, this idea could have merit.

Tillman isn't an explosive playmaker, but he has shown the ability to win downfield with 29% of his targets 20-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

He led the Volunteers in target share (29%) as a senior despite battling through an ankle injury, and he was at his best against the top defenses. Zierlein comps Tillman to Michael Pittman Jr., which stylistically makes sense.

It is also worth noting that Tillman played behind three future NFL receivers in Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings and Joshua Palmer — which at least gives us something to consider when evaluating his 28th-percentile breakout age. If Tillman surprises us as a first or second-round pick, he will climb into Tier 2 in our model.

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Help Build A Better Fantasy Life

Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re reading this newsletter because you’re here for the long haul. “What now, Cooter?” Each week I’ll break down ways to survive the off-season.

Survival Tip #6: Be Hopeful, Not Optimistic

Before you can start prepping for next season’s draft, I need you to remember one thing: Hope and optimism are not synonymous. More on this in just a minute.

🤕 Forgive Yourself, But Don’t Forget

Each off-season, there’s a prevailing attitude of overwhelming optimism that sets in as you and your leaguemates turn a blind eye to your personal blunders of last year. Those mistakes were ugly. I get it. You want to move on.

We all saw you reach for Elijah Moore in the 5th round instead of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Unlucky for you… people don’t forget.

Now that a few fantasy-free months have passed, everyone is trying to forget their mistakes, their reaches, and their busts. They’re beginning to wipe the slate clean and plant their flags on new players and teams. But again, hope and optimism are not synonymous. We should strive to be hopeful, not optimistic.

 “Hope acknowledges the significant obstacles and deep pitfalls along that path. True hope has no room for delusion.”

Jerome Groopman, The Anatomy of Hope: How People Prevail in the Face of Illness

🤦 Don’t Be Delusional

It’s important that we don’t forget the obstacles that led to our demise last season. By doing so, optimistic mantras of “It’ll all work out. This is my year, I can feel it!” will cloud your judgment come draft day.

You see, those same hurdles that you faced last year (and the year before that) have yet again been reset. They don’t disappear. 

Unpredictable injuries will happen. High-risk, high-reward picks will bust. That guy drafting right before you will snipe your favorite pick. If you’re not prepared, you’ll panic draft when the clock starts running out.

The obstacles are inevitable. 

But as long as you don’t forget what you’re up against, you can plan your draft accordingly to account for at least some of the unpredictability. 

So read up. Soak in as much information as you can now. And most importantly, look back on your mistakes judgment-free. We all make them. If you acknowledge the pitfalls of your past and make adjustments, I’m hopeful this year’s draft is going to be different. 

🤔 A QB on the trade block? The coach and owner may see it differently.

⚾️ Jaxon isn't the only talented Smith-Njigba. Big bro is already a pro.

😨 Could this rookie WR struggle? He isn't in great company.

📱 You have probably heard the Cards are cheap. But did they cheat?

❓ Are you zero-RB or anchor-RB? Both have their place.

🤯 Never forget. Bo knows.

There’s a new best ball contest available on Underdog with an interesting new roster wrinkle. Today, Pete explains how to attack the Big Board Superflex contest…

Underdog’s first big best ball contest of the season, the Big Board, stunningly filled with over a month remaining before the NFL draft. Wild stuff.

If you were slow to hop in, don’t worry. Underdog was not going to leave us best ball sickos hanging over the next few weeks and recently released a new Big Board tournament with a $500,000 prize pool and $100,000 to first place.

But here’s the thing…this isn’t your grandpa’s Big Board draft. This is a Superflex draft. The roster settings are nearly identical to the regular Big Board, except for one big tweak:

Instead of a third WR slot, there is a Superflex (Sflex) slot where a QB can accumulate points for your starting roster in addition to the traditional QB slot.

With that said, here are four tips and tricks to help you navigate this new Superflex wrinkle to drafting… 

❄️ Be Ready For The QB Avalanche

It should come as no surprise that drafters are aggressively targeting QBs in this format. Here’s a look at how the first two rounds of a recent draft I did shook out:

Your eyes do not deceive you. That’s eight QBs in Round 1 and thirteen total QBs through the first 21 picks.

Considering QBs have such a high floor when it comes to scoring, it makes sense that drafters are rushing to get one to two QBs right out of the gate.

To further validate this QB frenzy, take a look at this chart put together by Underdog’s Hayden Winks that shows 10 of the top 12 scoring players in this format last year were QBs:

If you have a top 7 or 8 pick, it’s very wise to lock up a signal caller with your first-round selection.

🧠 Attack QBs, But Be Smart

This is going to be an unpopular take, but I actually think the superflex settings have resulted in QB delirium for some drafters. If I have a pick at the back end of the round, I am not going to force a QB selection over an elite RB or WR.

In the draft posted above, I selected Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor at the 1-2 turn. Some people think this is crazy, but it reflects my overall strategy when it comes to Superflex:

Don’t show up to a gunfight with a knife.

What I mean by that is the teams who have the first three picks in the draft have a massive advantage in getting to select Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes.

How are you going to compete against a Hurts team with a QB like Deshaun Watson or Dak Prescott?

Sure, you can hope and pray that they have an outlier Top 5 season, but what you are likely doing is drafting a watered-down version of the team from the 1.01, 1.02, or 1.03. Last year, the QB9 (where Watson is going off the board) scored almost 100 fewer fantasy points than those Big 3 at the top. 

To put it in further perspective, think about the gap between Hurts’ ADP in the traditional format (Round 2) and the ADP of Watson or Prescott (Rounds 7 and 8). You are sacrificing a ton of value when you make that click.

Instead, I’d prefer to draft some combo of elite WRs (Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp) or elite RBs (Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor) and know that I will be beating the elite QB drafters at the RB and WR positions. 

The other reason not to draft watered-down versions of the early draft slot teams is that you also push down the top RB and WRs to them when you pass on those guys. Don’t let the Hurts or Allen drafter also get a guy like Austin Ekeler. That’s not fair.

There is TOO much strategy to fit in this newsletter...

Get the rest of our superflex secrets.

 

Did Trevor siemian write this twitter.com/jamespalmertv/…

— lindsey ok (@lindseyyok) 
Apr 4, 2023

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