A Rookie RB With a Growing Role

The NFL season is chaos. Make big bets on talent y'all...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Amp:

• A late-bloomer rookie RB to target.
• Rankings Update. It's Kadarius Toney SZN.
• Dear Pete. It's not rocket science.
• Bets from the group chat. The Eagles are too good.
• Roster Watch. Two WR values.
• Its 11/19. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...

We should constantly evaluate our fantasy rosters for the opportunity to add upside.

Last weekend, we focused on WR with Treylon Burks and Christian Watson as centerpiece options off the waiver wire. This week, we turn our attention to RB.

While Burks and Watson had an inside track to playing time and had high-draft-capital talent profiles, the available options at RB don't have early-round backing and need help to see the field.

However, draft capital and talent profile don't matter as much for stash RB options. If the starter goes down, they step directly into volume via handoffs rather than having to earn targets.

Fortunately, this week we have a rookie RB with a decent talent profile who recently ascended the depth chart.

🧨️ Isaiah Spiller

Spiller was a fourth-round selection by the Chargers out of Texas A&M. He was considered a high-end talent by many dynasty analysts due to his early-career breakout and dual-threat profile. As a freshman, he accounted for 24% of the Aggies' offense and averaged 103 yards per game over his career. The only other back drafted to accomplish those two feats was Breece Hall.

Unfortunately, after a terrible NFL Combine (4.63 40-yard dash and 114-inch broad jump), a back once considered a potential Day 2 selection fell to Day 3. However, those data points don't stack up with his missed tackles forced (24%) and 10-plus-yard rush rate (16%), both of which were well above NCAA averages.

Spiller didn't see the field over the first six weeks of the season, but over the last two games, he has surpassed Sony Michel on the depth chart. The rookie accounted for 30% and 29% of the Chargers' rushing totes in Weeks 9 and 10.

Joshua Kelley should return next week from IR, which could hamper the rookie's progress, but Kelley and Michel don't have the receiving chops that Spiller showed in college. If something happens to Austin Ekeler, we could see a three-way split, but if one back were to emerge with a complete role, Spiller would be the best bet.

The Chargers' offense is getting healthy, and they could be a source of major fantasy production down the stretch as they push for a playoff birth.

Spiller is only rostered in 4% of Yahoo! leagues and would turn into an all-in waiver wire option next Tuesday if something happened to Ekeler.

He is a much better upside stash than guys stuck in inferior offenses like Chase Edmonds, Cam Akers, Chuba Hubbard and Latavius Murray.

🧨️ Honorable Mention: Keaontay Ingram

Ingram doesn't have quite the same profile as Spiller, but he is another rookie who ascended the depth chart with Eno Benjamin released and Darrel Williams on IR.

James Conner has battled injuries throughout his career, which could force Ingram into a large role at any moment. You could argue Ingram has a cleaner path to an every-down role and is available in 98% of leagues.

Listening to your favorite Fantasy Football show during the day is arguably the best way to distract yourself from the work piling up on your desk. Losing yourself in the sweet, sweet start-sit decisions that plague you every week, uncovering the best streamers for the week, or even recapping what happened on Sunday that left you feeling on top of the world or like your team is in shambles.

But what if you have a question during the show? Who do you ask? Surely your dog that's watching you avoid working isn't going to help.

Thankfully, when you listen to the Fantasy Life shows on Amp, you can not only ask questions in real-time, but you can also interact with other listeners during the show and get access to some of the brightest names in Fantasy Football.

Fantasy Life is live on Amp four times per week, including...

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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.

📈 Risers

📈 QB - Justin Herbert

Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle) were full practice participants on Friday. While both remain questionable, Williams said he should play, and Allen said it up to the staff, but his hamstring feels great.

Herbert has had his top two options on the field together for only 27 pass plays in 2022. However, if both can go on Sunday Night in a tilt against the Chiefs, Herbert has QB1 overall upside.

Herbert is a mid-range QB1 who climbs above Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow on the positive news.

📈 RB – Jonathan Taylor

Taylor took over an every-down role last weekend in his first complete game without passing-down specialist Nyheim Hines on the team. Deon Jackson will return this weekend, but he doesn’t have the special receiving skills that Hines offered and ranks well behind Taylor in all rushing efficiency metrics.

The Eagles have the last-place EPA run defense, which triggered two new signings this week. The Colts will test how ready those new additions are – they ran the ball on 45% of close-game script snaps last weekend. The NFL average is 40%.

Taylor ranks as my RB5 and regains that RB1 potential, sporting a career-best utilization profile.

📈 RB – James Conner

Conner registered an electrifying 96% snap share and bogarted 81% of the rushing attempts. He is back in an every-down role for the Cardinals and will be a volume play even in bad matchups like the one on Monday against the 49ers.

Arizona is an interesting team this weekend because they could be without almost all of their star players, or they could get them all back (minus Zach Ertz). If they can get DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown on the field with second-year breakout Rondale Moore, this offense could make some noise, providing Conner with TD upside.

Conner is a mid-range RB2 this weekend.

📈 WR – Kadarius Toney

Toney delivered 19 fantasy points on an anemic 41% route participation last weekend. 

It was a tad discouraging that he didn’t play more with Mecole Hardman out and JuJu Smith-Schuster injured in the first half. However, his 29% targets per route run (TPRR) was in line with what we saw in Week 9 (33%) and in his rookie campaign (26%). The second-year WR is dripping with target-earning talent.

Justin Watson bested Toney in route participation (73%) last week, but we could easily see that number flip. Even his future hall-of-fame teammate can’t believe the Giants let him get away.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling will also try to earn more looks but hasn’t been able to step his game up as many hoped. His 12% TPRR isn’t even WR5 material in a historical fantasy context.

Toney is a mid-range WR2 who could post a top-six finish if he plays an every-down role.

📈 TE – David Njoku

Njoku is questionable (ankle) after two limited practices to finish the week but says he is ready to play. 

The former first-round draft pick has a career-high 21% TPRR and 2.14 yards per route run (YPRR). However, high-ankle sprains can linger, which keeps him from rejoining the top-six options this weekend.

Njoku is a low-end TE1 for Week 11.

📉 Fallers 

📉 WR – Joshua Palmer

Palmer registered two top-24 finishes, with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams out, but both are trending towards a return this weekend.

The second-year WR returns to handcuff status – his 16% TPRR and 1.22 YPRR are far below even WR4 standards. He is no longer a must-hold if your roster has pressing needs elsewhere.

Palmer is a low-end WR4 this weekend, thanks to all the byes.

Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Pete is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com

Dear Pete, when you started playing fantasy football for the first time, you relied very heavily on the advice of others to navigate a new world. Well, now that you are starting another new world as a dad, you will be flooded with all kinds of advice. DON'T LISTEN TO ANY OF IT! You'll figure it out. You're not launching the space shuttle. Enjoy it, hiccups and all, and remember you don't get to be a first-time dad ever again, so make it all yours.

But you can still give advice. 

James Conner or Brian Robinson at RB and Michael Pittman or Wan'Dale Robinson at WR? — ADVICE FOR A FIRST-TIME FATHER

DEAR ADVICE FOR A FIRST-TIME FATHER: So you’re saying I don’t need to read these baby books that are piling up on my desk?! That’s a relief.

For those who haven’t heard, our baby’s due date is rapidly approaching (December 1), and our writer here will be happy to learn that I am entering “WE’LL DO IT LIVE” territory (does anyone know Amazon’s return policy?).

For me, the benefits of  “baby prep” and receiving advice are more about peace of mind, even if it's ultimately a false sense of preparedness. 

I’m smart enough to know that I’ll be doing most of my learning on the fly, and no amount of research can adequately prepare me for what I’m about to experience. 

And yet, attending a few birthing classes (there’s nothing more comforting than seeing the fear in the other men’s glassy eyes on a 2-hour Zoom call) and skimming a few books (err, *devouring* a few books, if my wife is reading this) at least gives me a perceived sense of comfort that I’m not going to be completely in over my head (narrator: he will be).

It’s like when people call Sirius XM and ask Kendall and me about a trade offer they are considering. Deep down, they already know what they’re going to do; they just want some confirmation that they are making the right decision.

As for your question? Look…you are going to ask a lot of people this same question and get flooded with all kinds of advice. DON’T LISTEN TO ANY OF IT. You'll figure it out. You're not launching the space shuttle…

Just kidding, it’s definitely James Conner and Michael Pittman Jr.

Dear Pete, I make the same joke the last few years at our draft:

“Time to pick the three stooges…(have to get your best Curly voice on to hear it, but)...Boykin.  Aiyuk…”

Looking for nominees for the third stooge to round out my joke. — THIRD STOOGE

DEAR THIRD STOOGE: Let me just say, wow. I suppose an epic Dad Joke is on theme for this week’s edition of Dear Pete. 

If it’s not too late to talk you out of saying this, the least I can do is help punch this up a bit. Although I feel gross, like I’m an accomplice to a crime. 

After giving this hours and hours of thought, I think it’s pretty clear that DeAndre Hopkins, aka “Nuk,” is your answer.

Boykin, Aiyuk, and Nuk. You’re welcome (and I’m sorry to your league mates).

🎢 The Kadarius Toney experience. It's been a helluva ride.

🤦‍♂️ He is earning targets. There is just one small problem.

🤗 So they both can make every throw? Mutual admiration at its finest.

📊 WRs can win in different ways. However, some do it all.

☃️ How are the Bills getting to Detroit? Not sure he can get out of the driveway.

🤩 This star WR could return soon. He is moving well.

😲 The top of this list might surprise you. No. 1 ranks No. 1.

🤒 A QB dealing with another illness. Something weird is going on here.

❄️ Patrick likes the snow. It's like super slow out there, man.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Jordan came up with for Week 11...All lines from BetMGM.

🔥 Jalen Hurts Under 42.5 Rushing Yards -115

Coming off their first loss of the season, Hurts and the Eagles head to Indianapolis to take on Matt Ryan and the potentially reinvigorated Colts(?) as 7-point favorites. Both Hurts and the Eagles have performed well above expectations this season, but has that success led to inconsistent production from their key players? I think so. 

According to our friends at Props.Cash (where you can use code LIFE for 25% off) Over the past 4 weeks, Hurts hasn’t cleared 28 rushing yards, and on the season, he’s only been over this total in 3/9 games. Sure, the Colts look significantly more like an NFL team with Ryan under center, but I do not think they have what it takes to force the Eagles to keep the pedal to the metal all game long. 

Our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool has Hurts’ projected for 22.7 rushing yards, making it one of our biggest edges on a rushing yards prop this week.

Betting against Hurts is always a scary proposition, but the Eagles simply haven’t needed to lean on their QB for late-game production consistently. It’s an odd situation to navigate, but with Hurts’ recent performance, this rushing line shouldn't be above 40.

🔥 Additional Bets:

• David Montgomery Over 66.6 Rushing Yards (-120)
• Dameon Pierce Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
• Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+125)

Playing the best players is easy enough, but value is where it's at in DFS. Every other week, Alex from Roster Watch will drop by the Fantasy Life offices to give you his top DFS values. 

📊 Terry McLaurin, WR Commanders 

• $5900 on DraftKings

It's a tight week for value across the board, and McLaurin at just $5900 on DraftKings makes a lot of sense in the low end of the mid-salary tier for wide receivers. Ever since QB Taylor Heinecke's return to Washington's lineup, McLaurin has been revitalized. He's gotten at least 8 targets in his last four appearances with Heinecke under center. Plus, his target share has nearly doubled from 15.9% through Week 6 with Carson Wentz to 29.8% with Heinecke in Weeks 7-10. 

Over the last four weeks, McLaurin has eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice, whereas he'd only done so once in the first six. The Commanders are set to face a Texans defense that is not the easiest matchup on paper, but it's a unit that will be missing stud rookie corner Derek Stingley Jr. who is ruled out already.

🔥 Parris Campbell, WR Colts 

• $4300 on DraftKings

Here's another player who's seeming to benefit from the return of a former QB. Matt Ryan reemerged as the starter for the Colts in Week 10 and, in turn, kick-started Campbell's fantasy fortunes heading into the fantasy homestretch. 

Ryan was really starting to warm up to Campbell in his last two weeks before getting benched for Sam Ehlinger, targeting Campbell 11 and 12 times in the Colts' games during Week 6 (18.7 points for Campbell on DraftKings) and Week 7 (23 DraftKings points) before heading to the bench for Weeks 8 and 9. 

In Ryan's Week 10 return, he targeted Campbell 9 times, leading to another 20-plus PPR-point outing for Campbell. The Eagles are not a gimme-matchup on paper for opposing wideouts, but they have certainly been toughest on outside receivers during the 2022 season with cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Campbell has played nearly 70% of his 2022 snaps out of the slot. Other slot receivers such as Chris Moore (4 receptions, 43 yards, 1 TD), Chase Claypool (4 receptions, 45 yards, 1 passing TD), Ceedee Lamb (5 receptions, 68 yards), Rondale Moore (7 receptions, 68 yards), Curtis Samuel (7 receptions, 48 yards) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (8 receptions, 64 yards, 1 TD) have all had reasonable-to-good PPR outings versus Philly.

Check out RosterWatch for more great content from Alex and the rest of the team.