Written while listening to Neil Diamond, went better than I thought it would...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Cuts:
- Utilization declining Swift-ly...
- Rankings Update. 3 RBs ready to save the day.
- Dear Pete. Candy, gamification & selling JT.
- Bets from the group chat. #DUUUVAL, y'all.
- Rosterwatch. Top DFS Value Plays.
- Its 11/5. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...
Week 9 is here, and it is time to figure out how to tackle Byemaggedon with six teams not playing and several stars out due to injury.
At RB, things are especially tight with Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb watching the games from the couch with all of us.
However, we have options! Check out the Rankings Update below for three RBs that could help save your weekend. But first, we have one more piece of not-so-good news that fantasy managers must consider...
D’Andre Swift told reporters this week he might not be 100% this season despite Duce Staley saying they expect more and he is trending positively. All we know is Swift isn’t 100%, and his role over the last three games is extremely concerning.
Swift continues to dominate passing downs but is struggling to reach even 25% of the Lions’ rushing attempts, and Jamaal Williams is bogarting all of the scoring totes inside the five-yard line. This role is more in line with a Nyheim Hines or J.D. McKissic type of player, which is an RB4 profile, not a low-end RB1.
We know the third-year back is talented and is a must-start when healthy, but this weekend, he can be benched in all formats for the three options outlined in the Rankings Update.
Consider Swift as a mid-range RB2, thanks to all the byes, but expect more of a high-end RB3 output.
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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry. Dwain has you covered.
📈 Risers
📈 RB – D’Onta Foreman
Chuba Hubbard (ankle) will miss another game, opening up the door for an every-down workload for Foreman. Over the last two games, Foreman has had RB17 and RB5 finishes, and, dating back to 2021, things are positive.
The Panthers have kept those games close, allowing Foreman to remain involved on the ground. However, he has also taken over the two-minute offense, which can protect his fantasy value in trailing game scripts.
The Panthers are 7.5-point underdogs at Cincinnati, so those two-minute snaps could come in handy if Carolina must pass more. Foreman has also taken over all of the short-yardage work (SDD), which correlates highly with goalline duties and TD opportunities.
Foreman is a high-end RB2.
📈 RB – Deon Jackson
Jonathan Taylor (ankle) won’t play on Sunday, and Frank Reich indicated Jackson would lead the way despite the arrival of Zack Moss. We have two data points with Jackson as the primary option in Weeks 5 and 6. He finished as the RB25 and RB1.
From an efficiency perspective, Jackson wasn’t special in either game. For the season, he ranks below the NFL average in missed tackles forced per attempt (13%) and average yards after contact (2.37). However, he is slightly above average in attempts of 10-plus yards (13%) and believes he has more to offer.
In Week 6, most of his points came via the passing game with 10 targets (29% TPRR), despite sharing time with Phillip Lindsay – who will be active – on pass downs. The Patriots are a man-heavy defense, which typically depresses the likelihood of RB targets.
Temper expectations of a Week 6 repeat performance, but volume is king for RBs, and Jackson projects as a high-end RB2.
📈 RB – Antonio Gibson
J.D. McKissic (neck) will not play this weekend and will see a specialist. This news is huge for Gibson, who should take over all the passing down work and spell Brian Robinson Jr. on 35-45% of rushing plays.
Gibson demonstrated an ability to demand targets over his first two seasons (23% TPRR), which has continued in 2022 – with a mouth-watering 32%.
However, his route participation has been limited (33%), with McKissic leading the way in long-down-distance (LDD) situations (87%) and the two-minute offense (87%).
The Commanders play a pass-funnel Vikings defense that deploys zone coverage the second most (83%), inviting additional passes to the RBs and TEs underneath.
Gibson has outplayed Robinson, who is losing work over the last couple of games, which also leaves the door open for a complete takeover.
The third-year RB could see double-digit targets in this contest and projects as a high-end RB2 with big-time RB1 upside.
Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Pete is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com
Dear Pete, My wife and I are racking our brains on the proper amount of Halloween candy per day we should allow our kids now that they have huge bags of it. Is it one per day? 5? I’m so lost… Also, can you give me a good trade offer I should make in my .5pt keeper league to unload Jonathan Taylor? Think I could get a 1st and good young RB? Or should I just ride the wave? I’m at 3-5 (10th place), and I don’t want to do the punishment.
Thank you — JT TRICK OR TREAT
DEAR JT TRICK OR TREAT:
As someone who is going to become a Dad in less than a month, I feel like I’m highly qualified to answer this parenting question with a bunch of unique, unknown variables.
Full disclosure: when I was a kid, I’d hoard my candy and ration it out over the course of multiple months (I know, I was not a normal child). This was a great plan until my mom and brother would get impatient with my personal delaying of gratification and raid my stash (I still haven’t forgiven you guys, btw).
For your purposes, I think some sort of gamification element would be a fun way to provide some speed bumps to their sugar consumption while incentivizing positive behavior.
Maybe you set a baseline expectation of one piece of candy per day but also set achievement goals that could unlock more candy. Something like…
- 2 pieces of candy = clean room
- 5 piece of candy = an entire day of peace & quiet
- 50 pieces of candy = serve a Michelen 5-star level dinner to your parents
- 1000 pieces of candy = become a nationally ranked pole vaulter, get a 1600 on your SAT, and earn a full ride scholarship to an Ivy League college
Ok, I got a little carried away there at the end, but you get the idea.
As for your fantasy question…oof, that’s rough.
Taylor has already been ruled out for Week 9 and is a shutdown candidate if things continue to head south for the Colts.
If you had a better record, then it would definitely make sense to ship him for a usable piece, even if it means sacrificing some of your long-term strength in the keeper format.
But at 3-5, I think you need to be realistic about your playoff chances. If you sold Taylor for 80 cents on the dollar, say for a guy like Joe Mixon, you could be hurting your team in multiple ways. Not only do you take a hit in 2023 with a lesser Anchor RB, but you could also end up with a team that is good enough to finish with a decent record (and hurt your draft pick selection next year) but not good enough to win at all this year. You want to avoid that fantasy purgatory at all costs.
Think of it like passing on one piece of candy now so you can enjoy an entire bag down the road. Shout out, Walter Mischel.
☠️ A position change for this QB? Times are tough everywhere.
🤔 Is James Conner an RB2 if he plays? He has some outs.
🏃♂️ Just run the damn ball. Especially when you have the king.
🥴️ This OC is confused. Seriously, you hate to see it.
🚑 Mark Andrews might not play this Monday. Does it make sense to rest him?
🤭 Things we didn't see coming. What a year.
❤️️ Dwight Schrute loves fantasy. His team names are legit.
🥲 Never thought Bobby would make it this far. Very impressive.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Jordan came up with for Week 9...
🔥 Travis Etienne Over 76.5 Rushing Yards -115
Over the past four weeks, in front of our very eyes, we’ve seen Travis Etienne develop into a true every-down bellcow back. The departure of James Robinson is definitely a factor, but the writing was already on the wall long before the trade.
In Week 8, Etienne had an incredible utilization profile, notching 78% of the team's snaps and 73% of the rushing attempts while completely taking over both the short-yardage snaps(SDD) and all of the rushing attempts inside of the 5-yard line. Today, we’re targeting a rushing prop, but as an added note, Ettienne also ran 59% of the Jaguars’ routes in Week 9.
This is a profile of an elite RB1, and sportsbooks simply haven't adjusted enough to this paradigm shift.
The last time Etienne rushed for under 77 rushing yards was in Week 5, in a game where Robinson accounted for 41% of the snaps, 43% of the rushing attempts, and 57% of the short-yardage snaps(SDD). Since then, Etienne’s rushing totals have skyrocketed to 86 yards in Week 6, 114 yards in Week 7, and an absolutely massive 156-yard performance in Week 8.
We’re witnessing the emergence of an elite talent.
This week, the Jaguars host the Raiders and their extremely generous rush defense that gives up the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. It’s also important to note that the performance of the Raiders' rush defense has been declining over the past 4 weeks, giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing RBs over that span.
At Fantasy Life, we have Etienne projected for 93.65 rushing yards, and our newly updated player prop tool powered by Paydirt DFS calculates a 12% edge on this bet, making it our 3rd best rushing yards prop of the week.
🔥 Additional Bets:
- Josh Allen Over 2.5 Passing TDs +160 (.5 unit play)
- Ken Walker Over 73.5 Rushing Yards -115
- Raheem Mostert Under 65.5 Rushing Yards -115
Playing the best players is easy enough, but value is where it's at in DFS. Every other week, Alex from Roster Watch will be dropping by the Fantasy Life offices to give you his top DFS values of the week.
⚡️ Josh Palmer
- WR Chargers ($5100 on DraftKings)
It's a tough week for true bargain-basement value, but Palmer represents an intriguing option in the low-mid range of Week 9 salaries. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are out. And, even if Allen had started, he plays a different position than Palmer on the football field (Allen plays primarily out of the slot, while Palmer has only lined up inside 17% of the time).
Falcons stud corner AJ Terrell is out this week, and Atlanta's pass defense has been miserable this season, even when Terrell was healthy. So much so that it is the No.1 matchup for opposing WRs on the RosterWatch Matchup Tool. In a lean week for value, getting Justin Herbert's No.1 option in the passing game in the best environment from a matchup perspective at just $5100 goes a long way in freeing up salary for more flashy pay-up options.
✅ Robert Tonyan
- TE Packers ($3800 on DK, $5000 on FD)
Tonyan faces the third-best matchup on the RosterWatch Matchup Tool for opposing TEs in Week 9 and plays in an offense devoid of receiving options who are similarly trusted by Aaron Rodgers.
Tonyan is averaging over 7 targets per game over his last three outings, and if we've learned anything about the Detroit defense in 2022, it's that the Lions are a get-right spot for opposing teams. If Rodgers follows the trend and has an over-expectation performance here, it stands to reason that Tonyan would be a primary beneficiary. On Sunday's 10-game main slate, the Packers' 26.5 implied team total is sneakily the second-highest on the slate, only behind Josh Allen and the Bills (28.5).
Check out RosterWatch for more great content from Alex and the rest of the team.
