Donât worry, Jared Goff doesnât have to play outdoors until next weekâŠ
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Buffalo Wild Wings:
- The Ravens get richer
- Divisional Weekend Rankings & Tiers: Two smash plays
- The Rams are banged up heading into the offseason
- Freedmanâs Favorites: Big names to bet on
- Itâs 1/18. Take it away, Peter OverzetâŠ
It was just about a month ago that I wondered if the Ravens could survive another injury.
They had recently lost electric rookie RB Keaton Mitchell, and the schedule looked daunting.
You know what happened nextâŠ
They rattled off two big wins over the Niners and Dolphins and secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Now they are rested and 9.5-point home favorites vs. a very green Texans squad:
Even better, reinforcements appear to be coming, possibly as soon as this weekend:
Mark Andrews told reporters after practice that he âfeels great.â You can listen to the full soundbite here if youâre curious.
Some of the kids reading this newsletter arenât old enough to remember that Andrews used to be regarded as one of the best TEs in the league before he suffered a major ankle injury on November 16th.
Before his injury, Andrews led the team in receiving yards per game (54.4) and TDs (6).
The Ravens have scraped by without himâthanks to solid play from Isaiah Likelyâbut an Andrews return would put them neck and neck with the Niners from an overall offensive talent perspective.
If youâre drafting on Underdog this weekend, I outlined why you should be aggressively targeting Andrews in contests (even if he doesnât end up suiting up!).
đș Step Aside, Thirsty Thursday...
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It is time to make those DFS and drafting decisions for Divisional Weekend. Below youâll find Dwainâs thoughts on two players set up for a big week. Find all of our positional rankings here.
đ„ Running Back
đ„ Tier 1 - Christian McCaffrey
I understand none of you need me to tell you that McCaffrey is a great player. But for the most part, I havenât written about him all season due to that. But with just eight teams on the slate, he makes the cut.
Only two players meet my Tier 1 criteria this weekend â CMC and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Both players have the utilization, team total and matchup all working in their favor.
Excluding Week 17, when CMC was injured, he has commanded 65% of the 49ersâ rushing attempts while also garnering an 80% route participation. That is a unique combination. Kyren Williams was the only other RB in the league to summit both of those mountains â putting McCaffrey in rare air.
The seventh-year RB averaged 21.9 opportunities (17 attempts and 4.9 targets) in healthy contests, the second-best mark behind Williams. If McCaffrey gets anywhere near that touch total this weekend, he could deliver a monster performance.
The Packers defense has licensed the fifth-most rushing yards per contest (128). With the 49ers favored by 9.5 points and boasting a 29.75 team total, CMC should have ample opportunities to accumulate touches, yards and TDs.
The one potential concern for McCaffrey is his calf injury. He practiced in full on Tuesday and isnât listed on the 49ersâ injury report, which are both positives. However, the team could look to limit his workload â especially if the game isnât competitive.
McCaffrey is my No. 1 player on the slate (duh).
đ„ Wide Receiver
đ„ Tier 2 - Mike Evans
Evans has cooled off over the last six games, averaging 11.5 fantasy points. Over that stretch, he only has one top-12 finish and two outside the top 50. After posting a 27% target share over the first 12 games, the veteran WR has fallen to 19% over the last six.
The re-emergence of Chris Godwin has been a challenge, but this weekend could be a massive get-right spot for Evans. The Lions are the No. 2 defense against the run, allowing only 88 yards per contest, but they cough up the most passing yards at 274. Look for the Bucs to turn away from their inept rushing game (3.5 YPC) to attack Detroit's weakness in the secondary.
The Lions have operated out of man coverage the sixth-most over the last six games. Evans has dominated man looks this year with a 37% target share and 2.69 YPRR. Only D.J. Moore and Davante Adams finished the season with a higher target share against man-coverage schemes.
The Detroit-Tampa Bay matchup offers the second-highest game total (48.5) and the second-closest spread (-6.5) in the Divisional Round. Great matchup. Potential shootout. Talented player.
Sign me up for all the Mike Evans this weekend â he is a SMASH play as my No. 5 player overall and my WR2.
ALL of the Divisional rankings you NEED
đ€ Bill Belichick will not be going to Dallas. Hereâs why.
đšââïž The Chiefs player attending nursery school. Very cool story.
đ€ The Buffalo Wild Wings Punishment Generator strikes again. Take that, C.J. Stroud.
đïž Sam LaPorta is coming along. An update on his health.
đ° Looking for a comprehensive betting guide for the Divisional Round? Freedman has you covered.
đ€ Wait, maybe Jason Kelce isnât retiring. Take it from the horseâs mouth.
đ Need an explosive play? Just ask these guys for help.
đȘ The Browns shaking things up. Now do Deshaun Watson.
âïž Should you be worried about the weather in Detroit? Todd Bowles isnât.
đ Robert Kraft introduces Jerod Mayo. But struggles with his brotherâs name.
đȘ A Chiefs WR set to return? Does it matter, though, is the question.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called âFreedmanâs Favoritesâ. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding âNoâ. Anyway, here are his favorites for Divisional WeekendâŠ
đ Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Packers
- 49ers: -9.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 30.25 (No. 1)
The 49ers are coming off the bye, theyâre at home, and theyâre facing a Packers team that is on short rest (six days), playing its fourth road game in five weeks, and No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (48.8%, per RBs Donât Matter).
Itâs easy to belittle Purdy as a âsystem QBâ -- but within the 49ers system this year, he was No. 1 in AY/A (9.9), composite EPA + CPOE (0.204), and QBR (72.7, per ESPN).
He wonât win MVP, but those are MVP-caliber numbers, and heâs in a good spot this week.
đ Gus Edwards (Ravens) vs. Texans
- Ravens: -9
- O/U: 43.5
- TT: 26.25 (No. 3)
The matchup isnât good for Edwards against the Texans, who are No. 1 in defensive rush SR (33.3%).
But the circumstances are great: Edwards should be fresh after playing just 19 snaps in a meaningless Week 18 and then getting a postseason bye. The Ravens could have a run-heavy game script as big home favorites. And that might especially be the case with a forecast of 13-mph winds.
Setting aside the seasonâs inconsequential final week, Edwards had 639 yards and seven TDs on 122 carries and eight targets in his nine games without competition for carries from RBs J.K. Dobbins (Achilles, IR) and Keaton Mitchell (knee, IR). Thatâs not elite, but it gives Edwards a pretty good chance to get 50-plus yards and a TD, and that gets the job done.
đ Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs. Buccaneers
- Lions: -6.5
- O/U: 48.5
- TT: 27.5 (No. 2)
When Brown faced the Buccaneers in Week 6, he had 12-124-1 receiving on 15 targets, and I love his matchup in the slot against undrafted rookie CB Christian Izien, who has allowed a 79.7% catch rate (per PFF).
In the regular season, St. Brown dominated with 1,539 yards from scrimmage and 10 TD receiving, and then last week, he had 7-110-0 receiving on nine targets.
Matthew Berryâs 2023 Ride or Die, St. Brown is inevitable.
đ Travis Kelce (Chiefs) at Bills
- Chiefs: +2.5
- O/U: 45.5
- TT: 21.5 (No. 5)
This year, Kelce had his most inefficient season ever (8.1 yards per target) and his least productive season since 2016 (984 yards receiving).
Even so, Kelce in the playoffs is a different animal, and last week he had 7-71-0 receiving on 10 targets. In the postseason, Kelce has 1,619 yards and 16 TDs receiving on 175 targets in 19 games for his career and 1,325 yards and 15 TDs in 15 games since 2018, when QB Patrick Mahomes became the starter.
The Bills have injury issues and could be without TE defenders in LBs Terrel Bernard (ankle), Tyrel Dodson (shoulder), and Baylon Spector (back) and S Taylor Rapp (calf). Against the Bills in Week 14, Kelce had 6-83-0 receiving on 10 targets.
Even though the Chiefs are underdogs, I expect them to keep this game competitive, and an outright win would not be surprising: Mahomes as an underdog is 8-1-1 ATS (67.2% ROI) and 7-3 ML (71.4% ROI).
