🚀 A Star WR Nears His Return To The NFL

Please don't tell anyone I'm drafting in February...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

• The Jags beef up their WR room
• Will Lamar Jackson stay in Baltimore?
• Fantasy Fixers: The Carolina Panthers
• Dynasty Rankings: 2023 Rookie Class Preview
• It's 2/16. Take it away, Peter Overzet.
  

This might be a lackluster free agent class for WRs, but one team will likely be adding a star-caliber pass catcher to their ranks in 2023:

Jaguars’ WR Calvin Ridley, who was suspended one season after being accused of betting on games in November 2021 while he played with the Falcons, is in fact applying to the NFL today for reinstatement, per source. Today is first day Ridley can apply, and he’s wasting no time.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Feb 15, 2023

It's impossible not to get excited about Calvin Ridley joining an on-the-rise team like the Jaguars. On paper, they'll have one of the best skill position groups in the entire league:

QB: Trevor Lawrence
WR: Ridley
WR: Christian Kirk
WR: Zay Jones
RB: Travis Etienne
TE: Evan Engram

They currently sit as the team with the 8th-best odds (+2800) to win Super Bowl LVIII, and it's tough to argue with the market on it. They've certainly come a long way since Urban Meyer tried to torpedo the entire franchise in 2021.

All that said, I've experienced a little bit of sticker shock with Ridley's ADP in Underdog's recently launched 2023 Big Board contest with a $200,000 first place prize:

Yes, your eyes are not fooling you. That's Ridley going off in the middle of the third round before DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, and Mark Andrews.

As excited as I am for Ridley in this offense, he's still a 28-year-old WR who last played football on October 24, 2021 with plenty of target competition surrounding him. He could certainly deliver at that price tag, but right now, you are paying a "shiny new toy" premium on his actual value. 

I'll take some stabs on him if his price never drops over the course of the offseason, but for now I'm going to sit on the Ridley sidelines until enthusiasm cools off. 

If you're a sicko like me interested in drafting teams in the middle of February, Underdog will match any Fantasy Life reader's first deposit up to $100. I'll even let you have Ridley.

🍺 Mahomes got wasted at the Chiefs parade. Lmao, he was feeling it.

🤷 Lamar Jackson will stay in Baltimore, right? Not so fast.

🦁 The NFC's dark horse Super Bowl contender. What a glow-up.

💔 Wait, did the Bears have a change of heart? Sounds like they are considering all options.

💪 The Dolphins land their defensive coordinator. Nice hire.

🤫 Jalen Hurts is silencing his doubters. Marcas and Dwain explain.

The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Chris is here to take on our next project, the Panthers...

 🐆 Team Summary

Fantasy managers considered the Panthers a fantasy-friendly offense for one simple reason. They had just two players worth targeting at cost. And they were top options in their position. “Oft-injured” Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore were the only Carolina players drafted in the top 150 during the ’22 best-ball season. With limitations at quarterback, we assumed production would be limited but focused on the pair. However, the season threw us a few extra curveballs to consider for next year.

McCaffrey’s move to San Francisco left the backfield to D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Foreman was the coveted backup by most drafters after he flashed during his final weeks as a Titan. And devy enthusiasts were still holding out hope for Hubbard. Surprisingly enough, both exceeded expectations.

Over an 11-week sample, Foreman ranked top 10 in yards after contact per attempt and explosive runs per PFF. He finished as a top-12 RB three times after cracking the century mark in four contests. Meanwhile, Hubbard’s 1.90 YPRR was better than McCaffrey’s over the same split (1.84). But despite Foreman and Hubbard’s success, neither could overcome their quarterback situation.

Three different signal-callers started for the Panthers in ’22. They combined for four games of more than 225 passing yards and three multi-touchdown games. Moore needed Hail Mary throws to keep his fantasy value alive, and the passing offense was 26th in EPA per play. There’s plenty Carolina can do to fix their squad; luckily, they’re already on their way.

The @Panthers are going SCORCHED EARTH on NFL experience for their staff. Hired-

DC Ejiro Evero
Senior Off. Assistant Jim Caldwell
Senior Def. Assistant Dom Capers
Asst. HC/RBs Duce Staley
QB Coach Josh McCown

2 Former Head Coaches, 2 Budding HCs and NFL EXPERIENCE IN SPADES.

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII)
Feb 14, 2023

The Panthers have put together a staff of teachers and mentors with the experience to develop their young talent. I’ve got a few extra tweaks for the offense, but fantasy managers should be excited to draft their skill players in ’23.

🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

1. Upgrade at QB

Getting a boost under center is the most-obvious need for the Panthers. They were the only team without a quarterback to rank inside the Top 12 during the regular fantasy season. By the time Sam Darnold did it in Week 16, no one could trust their passing attack. Their wide receivers didn’t. But I’m not asking for the next Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow to make their way to Charlotte. Even an average QB would raise the floor of the offense.

Quarterbacks can use play-action concepts and RPOs to keep defenses guessing. Plus, they have to have some level of mobility to evade pressure. All of which can affect their efficiency or ability to hit their targets in stride. So, I removed all those plays to see how the Carolina QBs performed when asked to play their position in its simplest form. Unfortunately, they couldn't.

All three were below the league average in EPA per attempt and rate of catchable passes thrown per SIS. Even without pressure, Darnold and Walker threw more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4). Brett Rypien (86.7%) and Carson Wentz (84.0%) were more accurate. But help is (reportedly) on the way.

Carolina may have some options at the ninth overall pick in the ’23 draft. However, it may require some maneuvering to ensure they get their guy. Regardless, improving at the position should be high on their priority list. If they can, expect the Panthers’ offensive coaching staff to add a productive wrinkle to the passing game to ease any new quarterback into the system.

2. Use More Quick-Game Concepts

In general, quick-game passing concepts make a quarterback’s decisions simple and decisive. But they’re also effective. Intuitively, it’d make sense that being efficient in this area would benefit the entire offense. Consistently demonstrating the ability to catch a defense off guard or set up short third downs is good! However, sequencing them into a game plan pays off throughout the season.

During the regular season, a team’s quick-game efficiency correlated with its overall dropback efficiency. That’s why the playoff teams litter the top-right section of the above chart. Moving the chains and creating explosive plays are byproducts of getting the ball out quickly. And, of course, the Panthers struggled here.

Darnold and Walker’s time-to-throw averages couldn’t have been starker. The XFL star averaged a blistering 2.27 seconds, while the Jets’ castoff needed an additional beat to get the ball out (3.22). Regardless, neither was successful. Both graded out poorly in PFF’s passing grades, and Walker had the sixth-highest pressure-to-sack ratio if he couldn’t find his first read. But here’s where good coaching will help the next QB for Carolina.

Under Frank Reich, Matt Ryan was the 14th-best passer when getting the ball out quickly this season. Coincidentally, Ryan Fitzpatrick was sixth when Jim Caldwell was the assistant head coach and QBs coach in Miami during the 2019 season. Matthew Stafford was 13th in Caldwell’s final season in Detroit. It shouldn’t take much to incorporate these concepts into the Panther’s offense. However, they still need the pass-catching options to go with it.

With the Super Bowl behind us, it is time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the 2023 rookie class. Take it away, Jonathan...

We have a few months to familiarize ourselves with everyone, from the blue-chip prospects to the deep sleepers. So, we are going to start with a high-level overview of the class today.

To make things easy, let’s go position by position and preview some of the big names in this class.

⌛ Quarterback

Depending on who you talk to, the 2023 QB class has a tier of either two or three players at the top. Personally, I believe Bryce Young (Alabama) and C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) are in a tier of their own. If the NFL rumor mill is to be believed, Will Levis (Kentucky) is the other QB in the running to be one of the top picks in the NFL Draft.

I am quite a bit lower on Levis and actually have him as my QB4, behind Anthony Richardson (Florida), but you can expect to see Levis higher in the industry consensus. 

From a fantasy perspective, it’s not a particularly deep QB class, and there are no generational prospects, so plan accordingly if your dynasty team needs help at QB.

⌛ Running Back

You are going to hear a lot about Bijan Robinson (Texas) in this draft cycle, and the hype is well deserved. He is an excellent prospect. However, that shouldn’t overshadow the fact that this is also a very deep RB class with something for everyone.

You want an explosive pass catcher who can also line up out wide? Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama) and Devon Achane (Texas A&M) have you covered.

How about a prototypical feature back who can play on all three downs and handle a big workload? Zach Charbonnet (UCLA) and Sean Tucker (Syracuse) are your guys.

What about talented players with great names? Let me introduce you to Tank Bigsby (Auburn) and Israel Abinakanda (Pitt).

This class should help replenish the talent in backfields across the NFL and will have good players available well into the second round of your rookie drafts.

⌛ Wide Receiver

This group looks a bit underwhelming when compared to the extremely strong receiver classes that have joined the league over the past three seasons. That being said, there are still players to get excited about.

Quentin Johnston (TCU) offers a truly unique blend of size, burst, and elusiveness but isn’t the most polished prospect. Meanwhile, Jordan Addison (USC) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State) are more refined receivers who broke out earlier in their careers and have been on the radar of the dynasty community for a while.

After those three, you probably won’t see as much of a consensus around the industry, but my personal favorites are Josh Downs (North Carolina) and Zay Flowers (Boston College). 

Of course, there are plenty of sleepers to discuss as well, so stay tuned as we dive deeper into this class.

⌛ Tight End

We should never get our hopes up for rookie TE production, but this is still a fun group to evaluate. Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) is the top choice for fantasy purposes, while Dalton Kincaid (Utah) also has solid upside as a receiver. 

Last but certainly not least, this position features one of my favorite players in the entire class in Darnell Washington (Georgia), a 6’7”, 270lbs TE who is absolutely dominant as a blocker and has the athleticism to turn into a plus receiver. 

Be sure to keep an eye out for more rookie content as we head toward draft day.